Kotyuk’s ECONOMY REVIEW

SUPER TUESDAY TRANSITION

Fear of the Corona Virus in the United States shot to the ceiling sending the market reeling and opening the trap door in the market. This added extreme volatility and massive swings in the market. All domestic indices fell into correction territory. A correction, as I have shared before to you all, is a drop of more than 10%. If you remember this has been a long time coming and we were way overdue for it.

COVID-19, the Corona Virus, breached across the globe and into our comfort zone area. There are now two different strains. 93,000 people worldwide are infected and deaths are at 3,100. The President has weighed in and government funds are being deployed to strengthen the firewall against any outbreak in the United States.

It seems imminent that this is going to heavily impact the global economy as China’s factories shuttered. With this coming at the U.S. economy the Federal Reserve cut Fed Rates by a half a percent in a proactive way to bolster the economy. More cuts maybe on their way. There is uncertainty now on how the earnings outlook will be for corporations and this raises the risk of a recession.

I suggest that based on your portfolio and discipline that you start nibbling at your buy list and adding to your positions. Remember, the lower you buy them more risk you take out of them and the more upside you have. In addition, if you have any defensive positions against the market, I would urge you to reduce or eliminate those positions. The same goes for any fixed income positions you took to park your cash. Bonds should be up in value due to the Fed’s dropping rates. Take the profits. Lastly, if you have losers a down market is no-brainer to sell these and rotate them into a growth position. I would recommend to take your base positions in the broad indices such as the S&P500, the Dow Industrials, and the NASDAQ. You will have diversity and performance similar to the market. Use this Super Tuesday to transition your portfolio.

Lastly, my friends it’s time for me take a break from my weekly writings. I have enjoyed discussing my thoughts and it was during an exciting time of lows and highs and lows again in the market. Hopefully you have some new tools in your toolbox. I am a candidate for State Assembly to represent a good portion of the San Jacinto and need to dedicate my time to this and winning. I look forward to representing you all in Sacramento.

If you have questions on a particular company or investment and would like our feedback, contact us at my email below. Our team will research and respond to you with our recommendation and opinion.

Andrew F. Kotyuk, CIMA* is CEO and Principal of Alpha Wealth Management LLC. For questions or investment topics please email me afkotyuk@alpha-wealth.com.

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Search: Super Tuesday Transition

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Numbers are starting to roll in for the fourth quarter performance. It’s a rearview mirror of where we were,  but it also allows us to chart data points which show a pattern or trend. 2019, all in all, was an out-performer in the stock market. If you look under the covers though, it was a doozy in underperformance economically. So much so, the Federal Reserve had to pause rate hikes and then had to cut rates three different times. Corporations followed suit. They cut earning expectations repeatedly all year and then reported beating the lowered guidance.

Data points of leading indicators for the economy were expected to slow or bottom in the fourth quarter reflecting the stimulus of the Federal Reserve rate cuts. The question has been, have they cut far enough?

In the fourth quarter, the Feds stopped cutting rates which had been stimulating the economy with cheap money. They stated it was a mid-cycle adjustment. Critics and analysts in the industry viewed the fourth quarter as the “proof in the pudding”: did the U.S. economy bottom and quit slowing or is it still receding? If it is still falling then the concern is that the Reserve didn’t do enough and they will have to reengage again to cut rates and simulate the economy.

This month several of these reports have been released. So far, the data is positive. Last week, manufacturing data was released with expectations of a drop of 0.2% and instead the indicator saw an increase of 0.2%. Another important indicator I really like is the U.S. housing starts. This jumped 16.09% to 1.608 million new homes. It is a new high which we have not seen since 2006.  I like “new housing” as an indicator for a few of reasons. First, it is the one of the largest employment sectors in the U.S. With the unemployment near a five decade low this is one sector that has not been pushing this number down and has room to do so. Second, it requires raw material for building such as copper, concrete, and lumber. Demand on these commodities also drives areas of the U.S. such as transportation, distribution centers and of course manufacturing. Lastly, new home building drives everything that is outfitted with it. Every house not only needs carpet, but furniture, blinds, lighting, and landscaping. This drives hardware and furniture store sales.

Those are three but I will give you a few more.

This really excites me and I am on a roll. With purchasing a new home comes financing, which drives our lending sector in the economy. If rates stay low this will continue to fuel it. Much of the home buying is a “move up” transition. This means that the used home that is being sold goes through the same scenario. There is a new loan, usually the house is renovated at some level, and when moved into it is usually customized with some new purchases. 

Right now, this is one of my favorite sectors for 2020. If rates stay low it seems the switch will stay on. Let’s see where the rest of 4^th quarter numbers wound up. They say the proof is in the pudding. 

If you have questions on a particular company or investment and would like our feedback, contact us at my email below. Our team will research and respond to you with our recommendation and opinion.

Andrew F. Kotyuk, CIMA* is CEO and Principal of Alpha Wealth Management LLC. For questions or investment topics please email me afkotyuk@alpha-wealth.com.

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Search: Fourth Quarter Proof

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End of year numbers are starting roll out and there still seems to be a divide that is widening. It will break this year and which side reverses will set the course. If the slowing or receding areas of the market shift positive the market solidify and the Fed’s will stay pat and if they expanding areas slow or recede the Fed’s will have to consider lowering rates to stimulate the economy and stem a slowing economy.

Some takeaways this week were early pointers for how the fourth quarter may turn out. One of the reports was Richmond manufacturing contracts. This index is a “gauge of broad activity in the manufacturing sector in one of the districts. It represents a weighted average of the shipments, new orders and employment indices.” In December it contracted by 4 points and is now at -5 and had been negative in four out of the last six months. It reports that shipments, new orders, and capacity utilization declined and inventories built up at a faster pace. It also showed thought that hiring picked up and wage growth grew. It was noted that manufacturers were optimistic and felt the conditions were only temporary. Of the four regional factory indices that have reported in December three have declined and two are in contraction territory. Clearly, this represents that manufacturing activity remains weak.

On a positive note, weekly retail sales rose 0.6% last week and advanced 2.2% y/y. Also, new home sales for November were reported and showed at 1.3% increase to 719,000 but below the consensus of 730,000. The last three months were also revised down by 29,000 units. However, the three-month average sales rate increased up to the highest level since September of 200. This is clear benefit of lower mortgage interest rates. Housing contributes largely to employment so this is an especially significant sign.

Another significant report was durable goods orders. They sagged by 0.2% in November despite a consensus of +1.2%, the most in six months. The biggest culprit was transportation orders led by defense orders. Excluding these it would be flat. On a year over year basis durable goods sank 3.5%, the largest decline since August of 2016. Durable goods are an area of consumer products that do not need to be purchased frequently because they are made to last for a long time, usually three years.

You can see that several reports are strongly showing movement in their direction of expanding and contracting. Well, 2019 brought many surprises to us all and it will be a year to remember. I look forward to providing information for your trades and portfolios this new year. Wishing you all a Happy New Years. Cheers!

If you have questions on a particular company or investment and would like our feedback, contact us at my email below. Our team will research and respond to you with our recommendation and opinion.

Andrew F. Kotyuk, CIMA* is CEO and Principal of Alpha Wealth Management LLC. For questions or investment topics please email me afkotyuk@alpha-wealth.com.

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Search: That´s a wrap

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This week Thanksgiving is celebrated across America with family and friends. At times it is hard to find something to celebrate; at other times there seems to be an abundance of thanks-worthy things.. The holiday, founded by colonists, was started to celebrate the freedoms and new world opportunities of America.

America has much to be thankful for this year. With unemployment at a five-decade year low, more Americans are in a better place than in previous years. This has been reflected in consumer discretionary spending data. Consumer spending is broken into two categories. One category is “must haves,” such as toothpaste, utilities or other basic-need items. The other category is purchases that are not necessities, non-essentials such as entertainment, luxury brands or items on which you might splurge. This year discretionary spending has been up, propping up the economy.

This has been one very bright spot in the market.  It’s one of the many indices on which economists have cited as the reasons why the market has rallied higher and it is a reason why the U.S. economy would avoid a recession. Retailers are showing mixed results as Home Depot and Kohls missed their target and fell by double digits. Target and WalMart reported positive beats and surged. News came out that Louis Vuitton would purchase Tiffany’s. This is a mixed report, it seems. Heading into “Black Friday,” many analysts will be watching consumers spending. One of the new ways to track this is by satellite…yes, by satellite. Satellite imagery to be precise. Images are taken of retailers parking lots: comparisons are made as to how full or empty they are over the periods of analysis.

Corporate American has not been spending though. This is tracked with inventories, labor metrics and other data points. For three quarters, corporate earnings have been revised downward for the following quarter. Most of these benchmarks have been beaten and this does sound good. However, sometimes the bar is lowered, in order to beat it and beat it easily.   To me this isn’t a strong position for corporate America.

Another measure is Gross Domestic Product (GDP). This is a broad measurement of all goods and services created during a set period of time by a particular country. The third quarter reported 1.8% above downward revisions of 1.6%. This week it was revised upward to 2.1%. This bodes well for the market.

What has not been confirmed is this: is this due to the Federal Reserve lowering rates or not?  GDP for the fourth quarter has been revised upward as well. If the consumer comes through and corporations change sentiment, then this number should hold or move in the positive. This record rally seems positioned to run through year end as the optimism builds for a trade deal.

I wish all of you a Happy Thanksgiving with your family and friends.  I am am thankful for the current position in which our market and the economy of our nation finds itself. 

If you have questions on a particular company or investment and would like our feedback, contact us at my email below. Our team will research and respond to you with our recommendation and opinion. 

For questions or investment topics please email me afkotyuk@alpha-wealth.com.

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Search: Thankful

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Markets are hitting fresh new highs. Optimism is in the air. A surge in the markets of ten percent (10%) once the Phase One tariff agreement is reached is expected. A rally of historical proportions is occurring. Outflows out of bond funds and into equity markets is happening at breakneck speed.

Bears are definitely being beaten down as fear of a recession ebbs and markets head into the historically best half of the year. Heading into the holidays, back to school and holiday sales start to kick in. Paired with folks going back to work, the focus of the economy shifts to, well, work. Indicators point to a strong finish through the holidays.

Supporting this upside are several positive headlines: the recent Federal Reserve report, by Chairman Powell, indicates a pause in lower rates for the near future. The Fed’s apparent comfort with the changes they made and current data makes the case for a wait and see attitude. Reasoning for the seventy-five (75) basis point decrease has been coined as a “mid-cycle adjustment,” not as a need to stave off a recession. Wall Street has responded favorably to this by brushing off any economic concerns and embracing a continuance of a bull market. Supporting this is the closing out of the third (3^rd) quarter earnings allowing the market to breath until January.

A nice upside surprise recently has been the slight lifting of the global economy. Recent negative rates seen overseas has shifted upward in light of the positive data. American treasuries have responded to the global market and U.S. rally by reversing course. Global markets have been dragging down our economy for the last several years. If there is a sustainable shift into a global expansion, the U.S. economy would be a recipient and could drive several more legs of a bull market.

When this is paired with a possible trade deal before the end of the year, you have the high probability of a rally through New Year’s. Driving this is the “Fear of Missing Out.” This is when small investors jump into the market because it has been doing well, despite the market being valued fairly and maybe even being adjudged at a rich premium.  This is not the time to buy more of what has been doing well. This is the time you ring the register and take profits. Fear by many money managers is that the high stock prices do not have any justification. In fact, the opposite is the case, with lowered expectations for many companies. With the bond market prices going down due to the fear of trade shifting to FOMO in equities, we are seeing yields rise. This is a great time to add to your fixed income positions, a great place to put profits.

Don’t let FOMO force you to buy stocks. Use FOMO to take profits.

If you have questions on a particular company or investment and would like our feedback, contact us at my email below. Our team will research and respond to you with our recommendation and opinion.

Andrew F. Kotyuk, CIMA* is CEO and Principal of Alpha Wealth Management LLC

For questions or investment topics please email me afkotyuk@alpha-wealth.com.

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Search: Fear of missing out

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Earlier this year for many months the market saw interest rate inflect when the shorter-term treasuries paid a higher rate of interest than the 10-year treasury. This has been a leading indicator of a recession. Since then it has been widely debated on if the U.S. economy is headed into a recession or not. A response from the Federal Reserve was warranted with three interest rate reductions. Federal Chairman Powell stated that this was mid-cycle adjustment needed to support momentum in the market. Leading Economic Indicators (LEI’s) show the U.S. economy has slowed since the beginning of the year. What hasn’t slowed is the labor market which continues to tighten. It should be noted though that the unit labor cost has peaked recently signaling higher labor costs, lower productivity and declining profit margins. A positive thought was a higher than expected GDP report last month. Expectations were at 1.5% and it actually beat coming in at 1.9%.

Wait and see is where most money managers and economists are at. Even Chairman Powell expressed there would be no more rate increases in a hawkish statement. Is this enough to avoid a recession, increase inflation and continue the bull run. The GDP reports seems to indicate but the labor market seems to be signaling a slowdown. Many eyes are waiting for new economic reports to show an improvement or a further erosion.

New records are being made as major indices have made new highs. November and December are typically some of the best months in the year for the market. With a Phase I trade agreement on the table it seems the market will be full of profits this year. I am still very cautious. I don’t like the inflection earlier this year, the decreasing leading economic indicators and the Fed’s confidence they needed to lower rates as a stimulus measure. Let’s face it, that what it is, stimulus.

Currently, there is a surge in confidence and optimism in the market. This is measured by Sentiment Trader’s “Smart Money and Dumb Money Confidence.” Smart Money is made up of insiders from institutional and professional investors, where Dumb Money small odd lot investors and traders. This tracks the behavioral measures. As you can see in the chart, “Dumb Money” confidence has surged where as the “Smart Money” identifies extreme optimism and sniffs a subsequent market pullback. The “Smart Money” and the “Dumb Money” have diverged again.

Whenever you see this overly optimistic feeling with small investors and blatantly negative feelings by money managers it is another sign to be patient and cautious. 

If you have questions on a particular company or investment and would like our feedback, contact us at my email below. Our team will research and respond to you with our recommendation and opinion.

Andrew F. Kotyuk, CIMA* is CEO and Principal of Alpha Wealth Management LLC

For questions or investment topics please email me afkotyuk@alpha-wealth.com.

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Search: Divergence of confidence

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November 11 is Veteran’s Day and I urge everyone to thank those who served our country past and present. This includes spouses and family members who supported their family members. Military life is very difficult for families during service and especially for those who “gave all.”

As a U.S. Navy veteran, I can relate to these feelings and appreciate them. Our country’s freedom, bravery to protect other’s and natural beauty is one of a kind. The world power since WWII, our country has worked to alleviate global problems and keep world order. It hasn’t always been easy. Typically congress and the White House get the applause. It is the front-line men and women that deserve all the thanks.

This isn’t often the case: unfortunately the norm is reduced military benefits and pay.

The adopted budget for 2020 is $738 billion, which is the largest approved in over 5 years. Beefing up our forces and modernizing our weaponry seems to be on many minds as this budget passed congress “as a conservative budget.”  The more aggressive budget of over $750 billion was shot down. I believe this parallels the strong national support for fair trade and for protecting our national and industrial intellectual property.

This shift nationally has also influenced the national spot light at the United Nations. Recent speeches there focus on urging allies to increase their national military spending as well. This, along with technological change such as drones and cyber-warfare, long range missile caches of unfriendly nations, and nationalist popularity, are among the reasons why I am giving greater investment weight to military and defense companies for 2020.

Here are some of the plays: Northrop Gruman (NOC) “aerospace and cyber”, Hexcel (HXL) “advanced composites such as carbon fiber”, Raytheon (RTN) “missiles and radars”, General Dynamics (GD) “aerospace and defense systems”, Leidos Holding (LDOS) “cyber security” , Transdigm (TDG) “drones”, Huntington Ingalls Industries (HII) – “shipbuilding” and Kratos Defense and Security (KTOS) “drones and defense electronics.”  These companies receive the bulk of their revenues from government contracts with Departments such as the Pentagon, Civil agencies or the intelligence communities. The SPADE Defense Index is on the offense as the Department of Defense budgets are making up for lost time. The new budget orders new fighter planes, warships and other equipment. They have the green light and so should your portfolio.

I will cover this sector more in coming months and will also provide exchange-traded funds for this sector. As always, researching what to buy and at what price is always recommended. What I like about this sector is that it is also defensive and many of the names pay big dividends.

Show your patriotism to those who served to protect and protect your portfolio with some patriotic military spending in 2020.

If you have questions on a particular company or investment and would like our feedback, contact us at my email below. Our team will research and respond to you with our recommendation and opinion.

Andrew F. Kotyuk, CIMA* is CEO and Principal of Alpha Wealth Management LLC

For questions or investment topics please email me afkotyuk@alpha-wealth.com.

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Search: Proud to be an American

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Recent polling shows money managers see trouble ahead. Reasons include: a lofty stock market valuation, a muddy economic outlook and polarized political landscape.  Any of those three could hurt the market ahead. The polling showed that only 27% of the managers were bullish about the market’s next twelve months compared to 56% a year ago. This is the lowest percentage of bull-market sentiment in more than 20 years.

Bear’s have surged in their ranks too, to levels we haven’t seen since the 90s. Thirty-one percent were bearish and a whopping 42% were neutral.

As for next year’s growth GDP rate, the majority of the managers responded that they were expecting 2% growth or less. This is concomitant with 2019’s performance. A third of managers see a recession in 2020 and nearly two-thirds don’t expect one until 2021 or later.

It seems the market is trying to prove that the tariffs have not negatively impacted the stock market. This week the market has been hitting new highs on the S&P500. Tomorrow, we have exceedingly low unemployment numbers. Many are forecasting the number to tick up to 3.4 from 3.3. This is where the economy hasn’t weakened. Jobs and the consumer sentiment have stayed very strong.  I believe  that, if this can remain consistent, then the market will tread through the next twelve months and lift back up at the end of next year.

There is a belief (which I haven’t completely bought into), that forecasts the market finishing strong this year and then dropping the first quarter or two of next year. Current earnings for the third quarter show blended earnings decline of 3.7% for the S&P500. If this holds, it will mark the 3^rd straight quarter of declines since 2016. Adding to confusion in the market place is BREXIT, where the hot potato has been passed again.  The trade war will come in phases.  The deal has been introduced and most likely won’t be released until November or December.

Remember to filter out the noise from all the media and hype. Stick with your strategy and stay disciplined. It’s fine to change your strategy as long as you do it based on decision points. Right now, our portfolios are 50/50 due the negative economic reports and the positive consumer strength and are also based on the effort by the Federal Reserve through their interest rate mid-cycle adjustments.

If you are looking for some buying opportunities Alphabet and Amazon are worth buying on the dip. Both had earning misses and are now at a discount.

If you have questions on a particular company or investment and would like our feedback, contact us at my email below. Our team will research and respond to you with our recommendation and opinion.

Andrew F. Kotyuk, CIMA* is CEO and Principal of Alpha Wealth Management LLC

For questions or investment topics please email me afkotyuk@alpha-wealth.com.

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Search: Managers Outlook

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This week, twenty (20) percent of the companies on the stock market will report their quarterly earnings. So far it seems over eighty (80) percent of those beat analysts expectations. Most companies have lowered their earnings, making it easier to beat. FactSet estimated that the earnings will be four-and-half (4.5) percent lower.

Rarely have we had a market this bullish. A recent analyst this week called for the market to have a huge surge in 2020. I think some of this may be valid, if certain data is accurate and certain events come to fruition. Right now we still feel that the market is overvalued and contains a lot of hype. Looking at the headwinds of BREXIT and the Tariff War with the assumption that both of these have a solution that is agreed upon, would the global recession turn itself around?

Let’s say it does turn itself around. Would it resemble a Yugo making a U-Turn or more like a Star Destroyer? Changing direction would take quarters if not a year to do so. I think that as history is being written, so are the new rules of free-trade. This is why being conservative right now with investments seems to be the practical. One toe in and one toe out. There are far more bullish investors than me out there. Charts seem to show the upper limit for the S&P500 to be around 3150. I will be watching the Relative Strength Index (RSI) and the Volatility Index. If we go into an oversold status, I expect the market to rollover.

Downside right now looks as if a fifteen (15) to twenty (20) percent correction is in order. anything more than that and most call it a recession. This puts twenty-five-hundred (2,500) for the S&P 500 in view and if we do go through that then below two-thousand (2,000) is being called for. Remember Warren Buffett said there was a probability even for a forty (40) percent drop. Not much, but a possibility.

As this market grinds higher or if there is a speculative surge of buyers in the short run, please do me a favor and sell. Take some profits off the table. Cash, bonds or buying the VIX is my recommendation. As the old traders called it “Keep the Powder Dry.” If this occurs, I am bullish on next year. With the Federal Reserve lowering rates and very low inflation in hand, there is room for the consumer index to gain momentum and live with a little more money in their hands. The consumer index has remained strong. If they hold in there and the recent layoffs don’t accelerate beyond job growth, then I think we see higher earnings and a turn around next year. I maybe off by six months but stock-market timing is not an exact science. Take your fourth quarter positions now. The last two have been ones to remember. I think the 3^rd time will be the charm.

If you have questions on a particular company or investment and would like our feedback, contact us at my email below. Our team will research and respond to you with our recommendation and opinion.

Andrew F. Kotyuk, CIMA* is CEO and Principal of Alpha Wealth Management LLC

For questions or investment topics please email me afkotyuk@alpha-wealth.com.

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Search: Fourth quarter positions

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A trade deal done? Phase One underway and stated as very substantial. Wait, China would like additional talks before signing it. Markets surged, then gave back some and settled down. Details have been slowly coming out as have comments and tweets.

The deal described as Phase One, includes China buying 40-50 billion dollars of US agriculture products and their willingness to address intellectual property concerns raised by the United States. In return, the United States agrees to hold off on tariff hikes scheduled this week. It seems Phase One will go into effect over the next three (3) months. Wall Street is not sure of this agreement though.

Doubt has emerged on Wall Street around the tentative agreement with China. It seems that while comments from around the US were triumphant, the Chinese remarks were far more muted. The deal, while substantive is still subject to documentation. If an agreement is not cemented by the tariff date in December, then an increase in tariffs will go into effect. UBS’ Art Cashin doesn’t think this gets us to Christmas.

What is clear is that delisting Chinese companies has gained traction. A congressional action to force foreign accounting and audit firms to provide transparency is the catalyst for this. The United States allows many foreign companies to list on the US stock exchanges, but they have to meet all the same rules and regulations as do the American firms. There have been a few bad actors who have refused to provide transparency behind the audits and accounting, the Chinese on of them. Many believe there is Chinese government involvement and control with these firms, which is the reason they hide this information. There has been no clear progress with regulators.

While excitement around the deal is being tampered, the third-quarter earning season has kicked off, and there is some optimism for this. Many investors hope this is not the third recession in as many quarters.

According to FactSet, at 4.6%, earnings decline is in order compared to last year at this time. The clock is ticking on BREXIT also. Prime Minister Johnson is determined to exit one way or the other. Recent news shows a new possibility of an agreement being formed, a path forward that didn’t exist before. The end of the month will also bring Federal Reserves Chairman Powell’s announcement to lower rates again or stand pat.

How do you play this and the other events this month? I haven’t changed my position on this market. The data shows a slowdown and the leading indicators continue to point down.

We thus far have eight (8) months of data for the year. Yes, the consumer sentiment is strong and I believe they will stay strong, resulting in a minimal recession: touch and go. I have to follow the data on this. The good news is that Warren Buffet and Berkshire Hathaway sold more investments than they purchased this year and are sitting on $122 billion in cash.

If you have questions on a particular company or investment and would like our feedback, contact us at the email below. Our team will research and respond to you with our recommendations and opinion.

Andrew F. Kotyuk, CIMA* is CEO and Principal of Alpha Wealth Management LLC

For questions or investment topics, please email me afkotyuk@alpha-wealth.com.

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