Becerra, a former California attorney general and former U.S. health secretary, had nearly 27% of the vote in the June 2 primary as of Friday afternoon, with roughly two-thirds of ballots counted. His campaign described the result as historic, noting that if elected in November, Becerra would become California’s first Latino governor in more than 100 years and the first Latino elected to the office.

His November opponent has not yet been determined. Republican Steve Hilton was close behind with more than 26% of the vote and appeared most likely to claim the second runoff spot. But Democrat Tom Steyer had not conceded, and nearly 3 million ballots remained uncounted. Because many Democratic voters returned ballots late, the remaining vote could lean more heavily toward Democratic candidates.

California’s primary system sends the top two vote-getters to the general election, regardless of party affiliation.

The makeup of the November race could dramatically change the campaign. If Hilton advances, Becerra would enter the fall contest with a major partisan advantage in a state where registered Democrats outnumber Republicans by nearly two-to-one. Hilton also carries the endorsement of President Donald Trump, who remains deeply unpopular among many California voters.

If Steyer overtakes Hilton, the general election would become a Democrat-versus-Democrat fight between two very different factions of the party. Steyer, a former hedge fund manager, major Democratic donor and climate activist, has campaigned as a progressive and spent heavily from his own fortune during the primary. He drew support from allies of Bernie Sanders, while Becerra attracted more backing from the Democratic establishment, as well as important support and funding from labor and industry groups.

Becerra’s rise came after he had spent much of the campaign polling in single digits. His standing improved after the collapse of former frontrunner Eric Swalwell’s campaign, as many establishment Democrats moved toward Becerra over former Rep. Katie Porter and Steyer.

The shift marked a rapid turnaround for Becerra, who had earlier been among several lower-polling Democrats facing public pressure from state party chair Rusty Hicks to leave the race.

“Guess what? The underdog stayed in the fight,” Becerra told supporters Tuesday night at an election night rally in Los Angeles, calling his strong showing “the everyday miracle of living in a state that regularly makes the improbable seem inevitable.”

The next governor will inherit a state facing major challenges, many of them felt sharply across Southern California and the Inland Empire. California residents continue to struggle with high housing and utility costs, elevated gas prices worsened by the war in Iran, wildfire danger that has disrupted the insurance market, a fragile state budget, expected federal cuts to the state’s health care system and an economy affected by immigration enforcement.

So far, Becerra has not outlined a sweeping break from Newsom’s policies. To address affordability, he has said he would declare a state of emergency to freeze utility and home insurance rates while examining why costs are rising. He also has said he would enforce existing housing laws to make sure local governments plan for new construction. Like other California Democrats, Becerra has indicated he is open to slowing parts of the state’s clean-energy transition and greenhouse gas reduction mandates if needed to keep fuel prices down.

Becerra, the son of Mexican immigrants, grew up in Sacramento and began his political career in the 1990s. As a young attorney, he won a Los Angeles-area seat in the state Legislature and was elected to Congress two years later. He served in the House for 24 years before Newsom appointed him California attorney general in 2017 during Trump’s first administration. He later joined President Joe Biden’s Cabinet as secretary of Health and Human Services.

During the primary, Becerra faced criticism over his time in the Biden administration. Some Democrats revived complaints about his leadership during the pandemic. Opponents also criticized his agency’s screening of homes for migrant children, some of whom were later found working in dangerous or exploitative jobs.

Steyer also attacked Becerra over a late surge of campaign support from corporations and special interests.

Hilton has tried to frame Becerra as a continuation of the Newsom era, tapping into Republican frustration over California’s cost of living and business regulations. Becerra has not offered major departures from Newsom’s agenda and said during one debate that he would give Newsom an “A for effort” on homelessness, even as homelessness has increased significantly during Newsom’s two terms.

Becerra has countered those attacks by emphasizing his decades in public office and his record of suing the Trump administration while serving as California attorney general.

“You can have all these great inflated promises,” Becerra said this week, referring to critics such as Steyer. “But delivery is more important.”

Original source: CalMatters

The post Democrat Xavier Becerra Advances to November Race for California Governor appeared first on The Hemet & San Jacinto Chronicle.

The early results pointed to a strong night for Democrats, a rough showing for wealthy self-funded candidates and mixed fortunes for state lawmakers seeking higher office. They also underscored the continued influence of President Donald Trump in California politics, even in a state where Democrats dominate most statewide contests.

In the race for governor, Republican Steve Hilton, a former Fox News host and British-born political adviser, and longtime Democratic officeholder Xavier Becerra held the top two spots needed to advance to the November election. Billionaire Tom Steyer, a former hedge fund executive and major liberal donor, was trailing in third place, though still close enough that the final result was not yet settled. The Associated Press had not called the race.

Veteran California election watchers cautioned that the final count in a June primary can take weeks. Still, several takeaways were already emerging.

Massive personal spending did not guarantee success.

Steyer spent nearly $250 million of his own fortune on a populist-themed campaign for governor. Even if he ultimately moves into the top two, the result would fall well short of the overwhelming breakthrough that such a record-setting investment was intended to produce.

Garry South, a longtime Democratic strategist in California, said heavy self-funding can become a liability when voters are saturated with campaign advertising.

Steyer was not alone. Patrick Wolff put $600,000 of his own money into a campaign for insurance commissioner. Yvonne Yiu spent $750,000 on her bid for the State Board of Equalization. Saikat Chakrabarti financed much of the multimillion-dollar effort behind his campaign to succeed Nancy Pelosi in Congress. In Los Angeles, Zach Sokoloff spent $1 million of his own money, with millions more from his mother, in an effort to unseat the city controller.

Chakrabarti failed to make the top two, losing out to state Sen. Scott Wiener and San Francisco Supervisor Connie Chan. As of Wednesday morning, the other self-funded candidates were also trailing in their races.

The results were better for more traditional Democrats.

Although anti-establishment politics remains a national force, California voters appeared willing to back experienced Democratic officeholders. Andrew Sinclair, a political science professor at Claremont McKenna College, said Democratic voters seemed to be looking for candidates who could take on Trump.

That helped explain Becerra’s rise after the political collapse of former front-runner Eric Swalwell. Like Swalwell, Becerra brought years of experience in public office and a clear record of opposition to Trump. Sinclair described Becerra as a conventional Democrat who fits the moment for voters focused on fighting Republicans.

Steyer’s status as a billionaire also gave opponents an easy line of attack. And Democrats worried about being shut out of the general election appeared inclined to consolidate behind the candidate polling strongest.

Several Democratic members of Congress also appeared to be holding off younger, more progressive challengers, or at least keeping them in second place. That group included Mike Thompson, Brad Sherman and Doris Matsui.

Party labels continued to matter.

California adopted its top-two primary system in 2010, with supporters arguing it would reduce partisan gridlock by placing all candidates on the same ballot and allowing the two highest vote-getters to advance, regardless of party. The idea was to encourage candidates with broader appeal to the political center.

But statewide governor’s races have continued to follow a familiar partisan pattern. Despite speculation in past years about two Democrats advancing, including the possibility of Gavin Newsom facing Antonio Villaraigosa in 2018 or Becerra facing Steyer this year, California’s gubernatorial general elections have continued to feature one Democrat and one Republican.

The same pattern appeared likely in the races for lieutenant governor and treasurer, where Democrats and Republicans held the top two positions. The main exception, as of Wednesday, was the race for insurance commissioner, where Democrats Jane Kim and state Sen. Ben Allen appeared positioned to advance to November.

Democrats avoided their feared lockout scenario.

For months, party leaders worried that a crowded Democratic field for governor could split the vote and allow two Republicans — Hilton and Riverside County Sheriff Chad Bianco — to claim the top two spots.

That possibility prompted state Democratic Party Chair Rusty Hicks to commission polling in an effort to pressure lower-polling Democratic candidates to leave the race. Almost none did.

Whether Democratic voters strategically rallied to prevent that outcome, or whether the threat was never as serious as feared, the lockout now appears unlikely.

California Democrats have faced similar anxieties before. In 2018, crowded Democratic congressional primaries raised concerns that Republicans could capture both general election spots in competitive districts. That did not happen, and Democrats went on to make major gains in the general election. Democrats also worried during the gubernatorial recall election that a procedural misstep might help Republicans take the governorship. Gov. Gavin Newsom ultimately defeated the recall by a wide margin.

One of the most notable top-two surprises in recent years came in a conservative state Senate district in the Sierra Nevada foothills in 2022, when a crowded Republican field split the vote and allowed two Democrats to advance. The winner, Sen. Marie Alvarado-Gil, later switched parties and joined the Republicans. As of early Wednesday, she was running third in her reelection campaign behind Democrat Jaron Brandon and Republican Alexandra Duarte.

State legislative credentials did not always travel well.

Anthony Rendon, the former speaker of the California Assembly, was once among the most powerful officials in state government. But that influence did not translate into success in the largely nonpartisan race for state superintendent of public instruction. As of Wednesday, Rendon was in fourth place.

State Sen. Anna Caballero, a Merced Democrat who once led the influential Senate Appropriations Committee, was trailing badly in her campaign for treasurer, behind Lt. Gov. Eleni Kounalakis and Republican Jennifer Hawks. Assemblymember Jasmeet Bains, a moderate Democrat, was also behind in her effort to challenge Republican Rep. David Valadao in the Central Valley, with college professor Randy Villegas, backed by Sen. Bernie Sanders, holding second place. Former state Sen. Steven Bradford was in eighth place in the insurance commissioner race.

There were successes for some state lawmakers. Allen was in second place for insurance commissioner, while Wiener and state Sen. Aisha Wahab, both Bay Area Democrats, were leading comfortably in their congressional races.

Original source: CalMatters

The post Five Key Things to Know About California’s Elections appeared first on The Hemet & San Jacinto Chronicle.

Early returns showed Republican Steve Hilton and Democrat Xavier Becerra in position to advance to the November general election for governor, though ballots remained to be counted. Liberal billionaire Tom Steyer was running third and had not conceded, saying the race should wait until every ballot is tallied.

Several Democrats ended their campaigns, including former Rep. Katie Porter, who had once been viewed as a leading contender. Porter acknowledged the difficulty of falling short but urged supporters to remain engaged in the political process.

In other statewide races, early results showed Democrat Fiona Ma and Republican Gloria Romero leading in the lieutenant governor’s race. Democrats Jane Kim and Ben Allen were ahead in the contest for insurance commissioner.

One Inland Empire candidate was also drawing statewide attention: Sonja Shaw, president of the Chino Valley Unified school board, was leading in the race for superintendent of public instruction along with Richard Barrera, a San Diego Unified school board member.

In the treasurer’s race, Democrat Eleni Kounalakis advanced and could face Republican Jennifer Hawks in November. Democratic incumbents Rob Bonta, Shirley Weber and Malia Cohen also moved forward in their reelection bids for attorney general, secretary of state and controller. Their Republican challengers are Michael Gates, Don Wagner and Herb Morgan, respectively.

California’s congressional races were also reshaped by Proposition 50, which redrew districts in a way that favored Democrats and reduced the number of competitive races between the two major parties. Still, several contests are expected to remain closely watched through November.

Only two congressional races are considered strongly competitive between Democrats and Republicans. In the Central Valley, Republican Rep. David Valadao advanced, while Democrats Jasmeet Bains, a state assemblymember, and Randy Villegas, a progressive newcomer, were still competing for the second November slot. In San Diego County, Republican Supervisor Jim Desmond and Democratic San Diego City Councilmember Marni von Wilpert advanced to the general election.

For Inland Empire voters, one of the most significant congressional developments came in the 40th District, where Republican Rep. Ken Calvert, the longest-serving GOP member of California’s congressional delegation, is expected to face fellow Republican Rep. Young Kim after the district was altered under the new maps.

Other closely watched congressional races include the Sacramento-area 7th District, where longtime Democratic Rep. Doris Matsui may face a serious intraparty challenge from Sacramento City Councilmember Mai Vang. In San Francisco’s 11th District, the race to succeed former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi could come down to state Sen. Scott Wiener and San Francisco Supervisor Connie Chan, who received Pelosi’s endorsement.

In the Sacramento suburbs, Rep. Kevin Kiley, who left the Republican Party in March and is running as an independent in a different district, led early returns in the 6th District. Republican Michael Stansfield and Democrat Richard Pan, a former state senator, followed. In California’s rural north, former Assembly Republican Leader James Gallagher and former Senate President Pro Tem Mike McGuire advanced in the 1st District.

At the state Capitol, Democrats appeared likely to maintain control of the Legislature, where the entire Assembly and half of the Senate are on the ballot this year. Many races had already produced apparent top-two matchups within hours of polls closing, though several districts remained unsettled.

In the 4th Senate District, which includes the politically mixed Sierra foothills, incumbent Marie Alvarado-Gil, a former Democrat now running as a Republican, trailed Republican farmer Alexandra Duarte and Democratic Tuolumne County Supervisor Jaron Brandon in early returns.

Assembly Republican Leader Heath Flora, who had lost support from some key GOP groups in his district, held a narrow lead over Democrat Matthew Adams, a teacher. Republican trucker Jim Shoemaker was close behind.

In San Diego County’s 40th Senate District, Republican Kristie Bruce-Lane held an edge over fellow Republican Ed Musgrove for the chance to face Democrat Mara Elliott in November. The race has reflected a divide within the state GOP, with establishment Republicans backing Musgrove and conservative firebrand Carl DeMaio supporting Bruce-Lane.

Beyond the election results, lawmakers in Sacramento advanced a series of bills aimed at strengthening California’s DUI laws and cracking down on reckless driving. Eight of 17 measures introduced this year remain alive in the Legislature, with some moving further than similar proposals have in the past. The legislation followed an investigative series examining weaknesses in the state’s response to repeat DUI offenders and dangerous drivers.

Original source: CalMatters

The post California Election Results: Key Overnight Developments You May Have Missed appeared first on The Hemet & San Jacinto Chronicle.

In the race for governor, Republican Steve Hilton, a former Fox News host and British political adviser, and Democrat Xavier Becerra, a longtime California political figure, were holding the two spots needed to advance to the November general election. Billionaire Democratic donor and former hedge fund manager Tom Steyer remained in third place, trailing by a significant margin but not yet mathematically eliminated. The Associated Press had not called the race.

Final results could take weeks as counties continue processing ballots. Still, several themes were already emerging from Tuesday’s vote.

One of the clearest lessons was that personal wealth does not guarantee electoral success.

Steyer poured nearly a quarter-billion dollars into his self-funded campaign for governor, a record-setting amount meant to boost his populist message across California. But the spending did not translate into a commanding finish.

Garry South, a longtime Democratic strategist in California, said wealthy candidates can sometimes hurt themselves by overwhelming voters with advertising.

Other self-funded candidates also struggled. Patrick Wolff spent $600,000 of his own money in the insurance commissioner race. Yvonne Yiu put $750,000 into her campaign for the state Board of Equalization. Saikat Chakrabarti financed much of his multimillion-dollar campaign to succeed Nancy Pelosi in Congress. In Los Angeles, Zach Sokoloff contributed $1 million of his own money to challenge the sitting city controller, with additional millions coming from his mother.

Chakrabarti failed to finish in the top two, with state Sen. Scott Wiener and San Francisco Supervisor Connie Chan leading that contest. As of Wednesday morning, Wolff, Yiu and Sokoloff were also trailing in their respective races.

The election also appeared to favor familiar Democratic figures over insurgent or anti-establishment candidates.

Andrew Sinclair, a political science professor at Claremont McKenna College, said many Democratic voters seemed to be looking for experienced officeholders they believed could stand up to Trump and Republicans.

That dynamic helped Becerra rise after former front-runner Eric Swalwell’s campaign collapsed. Swalwell had been widely known as a veteran Democratic politician and vocal Trump critic. After he fell back, Becerra — a former congressman, California attorney general and federal health secretary — became a logical landing place for many Democratic voters.

Steyer’s status as a billionaire made him vulnerable to criticism, and some Democrats worried that a divided field could allow Republicans to capture both spots on the November ballot. That concern may have encouraged voters to consolidate behind the Democrat who appeared strongest in polling.

Several Democratic members of Congress also seemed to be holding off younger, more progressive challengers, including Mike Thompson, Brad Sherman and Doris Matsui, who were either leading their races or keeping challengers in second place.

Despite California’s top-two primary system, party labels continue to matter.

The system, adopted by voters in 2010, allows all candidates to run on the same primary ballot regardless of party, with the top two vote-getters advancing to November. Supporters said it would encourage less partisan campaigning and appeal to moderate voters.

But in statewide races, the system has rarely erased traditional partisan patterns. California has never had a governor’s race in November featuring two Democrats, despite speculation in past cycles that it could happen. This year, as in previous elections, Democratic and Republican voters largely appeared to rally around candidates from their own parties.

The races for lieutenant governor and treasurer were also shaping up as Democrat-versus-Republican contests. The main exception appeared to be the insurance commissioner race, where Democrats Jane Kim and state Sen. Ben Allen were on track for the two November spots as of Wednesday.

For Democrats, one major fear did not materialize: a Republican shutout of the governor’s race.

With a crowded field of Democrats and no single candidate dominating early, party leaders had worried that Hilton and Riverside County Sheriff Chad Bianco, the two most prominent Republicans in the race, could finish first and second under the top-two system. Such an outcome would have left Democrats without a candidate in the November governor’s race in one of the nation’s bluest states.

State Democratic Party Chair Rusty Hicks commissioned polling in an effort to persuade some lower-polling Democrats to leave the race. Nearly all stayed in. But early returns suggested Democratic voters either coordinated enough to avoid the risk or that the feared scenario was never as likely as some party officials believed.

Democrats have worried about similar situations before. In 2018, crowded Democratic congressional fields raised fears that Republicans could win both general election slots in competitive districts, but that did not happen. Democrats later benefited from a strong general election performance in that year’s “blue wave.” During the 2021 recall election, Democrats also feared a procedural opening for a Republican candidate, but Gov. Gavin Newsom defeated the recall by a wide margin.

One of the most notable recent top-two surprises went the other way. In a conservative Sierra foothills state Senate district in 2022, a crowded Republican field split the vote and allowed two Democrats to advance. The winner, Sen. Marie Alvarado-Gil, later switched parties and joined the Republicans. As of early Wednesday, she was running third in her re-election race behind Democrat Jaron Brandon and Republican Alexandra Duarte.

The election brought mixed results for state lawmakers seeking higher or different office.

Former Assembly Speaker Anthony Rendon, once one of the most powerful figures in Sacramento, was in fourth place in the race for state superintendent of public instruction, a largely nonpartisan office. State Sen. Anna Caballero, a Merced Democrat and former chair of the Senate Appropriations Committee, was far behind Lt. Gov. Eleni Kounalakis and Republican Jennifer Hawks in the treasurer’s race.

Assemblymember Jasmeet Bains, a moderate Democrat, was also trailing in her Central Valley campaign against Republican Rep. David Valadao, with college professor Randy Villegas, backed by Sen. Bernie Sanders, holding the second-place position. Former state Sen. Steven Bradford was in eighth place in the insurance commissioner contest.

But other state legislators had stronger nights. Allen was in second place in the insurance commissioner race, while Wiener and state Sen. Aisha Wahab, both Bay Area Democrats, were leading their congressional contests.

As election officials continue counting ballots, the broad outlines of Tuesday’s vote are becoming clearer: California voters rewarded political familiarity, resisted several heavily self-funded campaigns and once again showed that the state’s top-two system has not erased the power of party identity.

Original source: CalMatters

The post What to Watch in California’s Elections, From Congress to the Governor’s Race appeared first on The Hemet & San Jacinto Chronicle.

The race comes at a consequential moment for California and for Southern California voters facing many of the state’s most urgent pressures: a steep cost of living, the nation’s highest gasoline prices, worsening wildfire risk that has shaken the insurance market, a fragile state budget, looming federal cuts to health care programs and economic uncertainty tied in part to immigration enforcement.

Democrat Xavier Becerra, the former state attorney general and U.S. health secretary, entered Election Day as a leading contender. He has campaigned on his record of taking on the Trump administration and has pledged to freeze insurance and utility rates. With support from much of the state Democratic establishment, Becerra appeared well positioned in public polling to claim one of the top two spots.

Republican Steve Hilton, a former Fox News host endorsed by President Donald Trump, also remained in strong position. Hilton has promised to reduce income taxes and roll back major environmental regulations, and his endorsement from Trump helped him consolidate support among many California conservatives.

But billionaire climate activist Tom Steyer, a progressive Democrat who poured $213 million of his own money into the race, was still battling for a November berth. Polls released in the final days showed Becerra leading with about one-quarter of likely voters, while Hilton and Steyer were locked in a close contest for second place.

Final results may not be known quickly. California’s vote count often takes days or even weeks, particularly in close statewide contests. Political strategists said the uncertainty within the Democratic field may have prompted some voters to wait until late in the campaign to back the candidate they believed had the best chance to advance.

“Those polls could become a self-fulfilling prophecy,” said Paul Mitchell, a Democratic strategist whose firm tracks ballot return data.

The contest to succeed Newsom, who is leaving office at the end of the year because of term limits, is the highest-profile race on Tuesday’s ballot. Democrats are widely favored in November because they hold nearly twice as many registered voters as Republicans statewide. The race also carries national significance as California remains central to Democratic opposition to the Trump administration.

The primary has been unusually wide open by California standards. Unlike past statewide races shaped by movie stars, political dynasties or dominant personalities, many of the best-known Democrats in the state chose not to run.

That created a crowded field on the left and briefly raised fears among Democrats that Hilton and another Republican, Riverside County Sheriff Chad Bianco, could outpace a divided Democratic field and shut the party out of the general election. The state Democratic Party publicly urged lower-polling candidates to drop out, but nearly all stayed in the race.

Becerra benefited after then-Rep. Eric Swalwell withdrew following multiple allegations of sexual assault. Many of Swalwell’s donors and supporters moved to Becerra, who has since gained ground while largely weathering criticism of his record.

Steyer, meanwhile, spent heavily to raise his name recognition through campaign advertising and consolidated support from much of the party’s left flank. Former Rep. Katie Porter, another progressive, fell behind after facing criticism over allegations about her temperament. San Jose Mayor Matt Mahan, a moderate backed by Silicon Valley billionaires, improved from single digits in polling but did not climb enough to emerge as a front-runner.

Trump’s endorsement helped Hilton separate himself from Bianco, making it less likely that two Republicans would capture the top two spots. If Hilton advances to November, he would still face long odds in a state where Democrats dominate statewide elections.

In the closing weeks, Hilton and Steyer both sought to cast Becerra as a defender of the political status quo while presenting themselves as change agents. Affordability became the central theme of the campaign as candidates debated how to respond to the state’s housing costs, utility bills, insurance instability and broader economic strain.

Hilton has argued that California needs to end what he calls 16 years of “one-party rule” under Democrats. His platform includes cutting state spending and reversing major liberal policies, including greenhouse gas reduction mandates, the progressive tax structure and portions of the social safety net.

“After 16 years where everything has gone in the same direction, a lot of people are unhappy,” Hilton said last week. “For anyone who wants change or balance in our politics, I’m the only option.”

His years as a Fox host gave him an established base before the campaign began. Nancy LeVesque, a retired saleswoman from Roseville, said she already admired Hilton and had no trouble choosing him when she cast her ballot Monday at a Placer County voting center. She said she liked that he would bring an outsider’s approach to the governor’s office and offer a different direction for people who have left California because of its liberal politics.

“We’ve lost so many good people” to other states, she said.

Steyer has framed himself as a populist “class traitor” willing to challenge powerful industries that he says are driving up costs for Californians, including private utilities, real estate interests and health insurers. He has also made a series of progressive promises on climate change, universal health care and raising taxes on the wealthy.

Tina Varnado, an undecided voter from South Sacramento, attended a Steyer rally last week organized by her union, which represents home care workers. Varnado cares full time for her elderly mother and her adult daughter, who recently underwent open-heart surgery. Between her mother’s Social Security benefits and her own pay as her daughter’s health aide, she said, “we have to spend everything we get every month” just to get by.

“Everything he said touched my heart,” Varnado said after hearing Steyer speak. “If we can bring prices down, maybe we can start saving for a house for my future.”

Becerra has leaned heavily on his long experience in government, including his lawsuits against the first Trump administration and his tenure as U.S. secretary of Health and Human Services during the pandemic.

That record helped win over Evan Cragin of the California Young Democrats, which endorsed Becerra weeks before his late surge. Cragin said he wants the next governor to have experience pushing back against what he described as federal “abuses” under the Trump administration.

“Secretary Becerra has done this before,” Cragin said.

Standing with supporters Monday at the offices of Planned Parenthood Affiliates of California, Becerra brushed aside his rivals’ campaign promises and pointed instead to his role in past policy fights, including passage of the Affordable Care Act and defense of the Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals program.

“You can make all those big, exaggerated promises,” Becerra said. “But getting things done isn’t easy.”

Original source: CalMatters

The post California Faces Most Unpredictable Governor’s Primary in Years appeared first on The Hemet & San Jacinto Chronicle.

The contest will determine who advances in the race to replace Gov. Gavin Newsom, who is leaving office at the end of the year because of term limits. Results are expected to begin arriving Tuesday night, though the final count could take days or weeks as counties process ballots.

The election comes as Californians confront a long list of urgent problems: high housing and living costs, some of the nation’s highest gasoline prices, wildfire threats that have shaken the insurance market, uncertainty in the state budget, expected federal cuts to California’s health care programs and economic disruption tied to immigration enforcement.

Former California Attorney General Xavier Becerra, a Democrat who also served as U.S. Health and Human Services secretary, entered Election Day as the leading Democrat in late polling. Becerra has campaigned on pledges to confront President Donald Trump’s administration and to freeze insurance and utility rates. He also has drawn support from much of the Democratic establishment.

Republican Steve Hilton, a former Fox News host endorsed by Trump, was polling in second place before Election Day after consolidating conservative support. Hilton has promised to reduce income taxes and roll back environmental rules.

But billionaire climate activist Tom Steyer, a progressive Democrat who has poured $213 million of his own money into the race, remained in contention for one of the two general election spots. Late polls showed Becerra with support from about one-quarter of likely voters, while Steyer and Hilton were in a close fight for second place.

Election analysts said the uncertainty among Democratic voters may have affected the final days of voting, with some waiting to see which candidate appeared best positioned to advance.

“Those polls could become self-fulfilling,” said Paul Mitchell, a Democratic strategist whose firm tracks ballot returns.

The governor’s race is the top statewide contest on Tuesday’s ballot. Democrats are heavily favored in November in a state where they hold nearly twice as many voter registrations as Republicans. Still, the race carries national weight as California remains a major center of Democratic resistance to the Trump administration.

The field has been unusually wide open by California standards. Unlike past contests shaped by celebrity candidates, political dynasties or dominant statewide figures, no clear Democratic star entered the race. That left a crowded Democratic field and, for a time, raised concern among party leaders that two Republicans could potentially finish first and second under California’s top-two primary system.

That possibility was driven in part by Hilton and Riverside County Sheriff Chad Bianco, a Republican whose campaign drew attention across the Inland Empire and beyond. State Democratic leaders publicly urged lower-polling Democratic candidates to leave the race, but most remained.

The Democratic field shifted when then-Rep. Eric Swalwell dropped out after multiple sexual assault allegations. Becerra benefited from the opening, gaining many of Swalwell’s donors and supporters and rising in polls in the final stretch. Steyer, meanwhile, used heavy advertising to boost his name recognition and appeal to the party’s progressive wing.

Former Rep. Katie Porter, another progressive Democrat, lost ground after allegations about her temperament became a political liability. San Jose Mayor Matt Mahan, a moderate supported by Silicon Valley billionaires, improved from single digits in polling but did not appear to gain enough traction to break into the top tier.

On the Republican side, Trump’s endorsement helped Hilton separate himself from Bianco, reducing the likelihood that two Republicans would advance to November. If Hilton makes the general election, he would face a difficult path in heavily Democratic California.

In the closing weeks, both Hilton and Steyer tried to frame Becerra as the candidate of the political establishment, arguing that California needs dramatic change to address affordability and other crises.

Hilton has centered his campaign on ending what he describes as 16 years of Democratic control in Sacramento. His agenda includes cutting state spending and reversing major liberal policies, including climate mandates, the progressive tax structure and parts of the social safety net.

“After 16 years of everything being in one direction, that’s left a lot of people dissatisfied,” Hilton said last week. “Anybody who wants change or balance in our politics, the only choice is for me.”

Hilton’s years as a television commentator gave him a built-in audience among conservative voters. Nancy LeVesque, a retired salesperson from Roseville, said she already admired Hilton before he ran and considered him an easy choice when she dropped off her ballot Monday at a vote center in Placer County. She said she sees him as an outsider who could change the direction of a state that, in her view, has pushed too many residents away.

“We have lost so many good people” to other states, she said.

Steyer has campaigned as a wealthy progressive willing to challenge powerful industries. He has described himself as a “class traitor” and pledged to lower costs by taking on investor-owned utilities, real estate interests and health insurance companies. His platform includes aggressive climate policies, single-payer health care and higher taxes on the wealthy.

Tina Varnado, a South Sacramento resident and undecided voter, attended a Steyer rally last week hosted by her union, which represents home health aides. Varnado works as a full-time caregiver for her elderly mother and for her adult daughter, who had open-heart surgery. Between her mother’s Social Security benefits and Varnado’s wages as her daughter’s health aide, she said her family spends nearly everything it earns each month just to get by.

“Everything he touched on really touched home for me,” Varnado said after Steyer’s speech. “If we can lower prices, maybe we can start putting money down on a home for my future.”

Becerra has leaned heavily on his decades in public office, including his record as California attorney general, his lawsuits against Trump’s first administration and his leadership at the federal health agency during the COVID-19 pandemic.

That experience helped him win support from groups such as the California Young Democrats, which endorsed him before his recent rise in the polls. Evan Cragin, a member of the organization, said he wants a governor who knows how to use government power to challenge federal actions.

“Secretary Becerra has done that before,” Cragin said.

Speaking Monday at the offices of Planned Parenthood Affiliates of California, Becerra argued that campaign promises mean little without the experience to deliver. He pointed to his work on the Affordable Care Act and his defense of the Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals program as examples of his record.

“You can have all these great inflated promises,” he said. “Getting things done is not easy.”

Original source: CalMatters

The post California Voters Head to Polls in Most Unpredictable Governor’s Primary in Years appeared first on The Hemet & San Jacinto Chronicle.

At the same time, Kalshi’s own market was showing Becerra with a 74% chance of winning the governor’s race as of Monday afternoon.

The contribution, one of the company’s largest reported donations to a California state candidate, is drawing scrutiny from campaign finance advocates who say it raises questions about whether a prediction market should financially support candidates while offering contracts tied to those same candidates’ electoral prospects.

Trent Lange, executive director of the California Clean Money Campaign, said the situation is troubling because betting markets can influence how voters view a candidate’s strength, even though the public may not have a full understanding of how the odds are shaped.

“It does seem especially problematic when a betting market is giving large contributions to any candidate that they are holding betting markets for,” Lange said.

Kalshi declined to comment on the donation or whether it presents a conflict of interest.

Lange said prediction markets can affect public perception by signaling which candidates appear viable, potentially influencing voters before they cast ballots.

“We do know that people often look to where candidates stand on the betting markets to see how viable people think they are and it may actually change many people’s votes,” he said.

Becerra’s campaign did not answer specific questions about the Kalshi contribution or the company’s market on his chances of winning.

“Californians from every walk of life are lining up to support Xavier Becerra,” campaign spokesperson Jonathan Underland said in a written statement.

Kalshi, founded in 2018, has recently expanded its political activity in California. Since the second quarter of 2025, the company has given $115,000 to state candidates, including Becerra, and $100,000 to the California Democratic Party. It also reported spending $72,000 lobbying state officials, including lawmakers, the attorney general and the governor.

Late last year, Kalshi joined Crypto.com, Coinbase and Robinhood in launching an advocacy organization called the Coalition for Prediction Markets. The group, led by former Democratic staffers, registered to lobby in California earlier this year.

Kalshi and the coalition have lobbied on state legislation involving prediction markets and online gambling. One bill would require the attorney general to investigate prediction market payouts of at least $5,000 when the outcome involves national security. Another bill seeks to prevent children from gambling online.

Both measures remain under consideration in the Assembly. State disclosure filings do not indicate whether Kalshi supported or opposed the bills.

Polymarket, one of Kalshi’s largest competitors, has not reported any California campaign contributions or state lobbying expenses.

Original source: CalMatters

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