The shift marks a major departure from the explosive growth that defined California after World War II. The state’s population rose from 6.9 million in 1940 to 19.9 million in 1970, fueled by people moving in from other states for jobs and by the postwar baby boom.

To accommodate that surge, California built much of the public infrastructure residents still rely on today: schools, colleges, highways, parks and water systems. Private development followed with large-scale investment in housing, shopping centers, factories and office buildings.

Growth began to slow in the 1970s as the baby boom faded and the state’s economy shifted away from manufacturing and toward technology and service industries. Then-Gov. Jerry Brown described the period as an “era of limits,” arguing that the state no longer needed the same level of major infrastructure expansion.

But the slowdown did not last. In the 1980s, California saw another sharp increase in population, driven by international immigration and a new wave of births. The state added roughly 6 million people during that decade, more than 5 million of them babies, increasing its population by more than 25%.

That growth was large enough, compared with the rest of the nation, that California gained seven additional seats in Congress after the 1990 census.

The political response to the 1980s growth differed sharply from the postwar era. In the 1990s, California saw a backlash over immigration, including laws aimed at denying public services to undocumented immigrants. Environmental groups also wrestled with internal disputes over the effect of immigration-driven growth on land use and natural resources.

Today, California is facing a very different demographic moment. Immigration has slowed, birth rates have fallen and many residents have moved away, with high housing and living costs widely cited as major reasons.

A recent study by Public Policy Institute of California researchers Hans Johnson, Julien LaFortune and Eric McGhee found that California’s total fertility rate dropped from 2.21 children per woman in 2007 to 1.48 in 2023. That is well below the 2.1 level demographers consider necessary for a population to replace itself over time.

The slowdown has already affected California’s political representation. The state lost a congressional seat after the 2020 census and could lose more after the 2030 count if current trends continue.

But the consequences go beyond politics. A smaller or stagnant population could ease pressure on housing demand, traffic congestion and the need for large new public works projects, the PPIC researchers noted. Declining school enrollment could also allow more money to be spent per student.

At the same time, fewer births could speed up enrollment declines in K-12 schools and create added pressure on the economy and safety-net programs as a smaller workforce supports a growing population of older Californians. Labor shortages could also limit future economic growth.

For Southern California and the Inland Empire, where daily life is closely tied to freeway congestion, housing affordability, school enrollment and water supply, the demographic shift raises practical questions about what the state should build, repair and prioritize.

California’s population is now about twice what it was in 1970, yet the state still depends heavily on infrastructure developed in the postwar era, including the State Water Plan and the freeway system that connects communities across the region.

A flat population may reduce the need for some new construction, but it does not eliminate the need to maintain and modernize existing systems. Water projects have stalled for years, and the state has largely moved away from building new highways, even as many existing systems face heavy demand.

Brown, who first spoke of limits in the 1970s, returned to the governor’s office in 2011 promising to get major projects done. California’s new demographic reality may lessen some pressures, but it also leaves state leaders with unresolved decisions about infrastructure, public services and how to support a changing population.

Original source: CalMatters

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