Three nonpartisan polls released last week showed Democrat Xavier Becerra leading the field, while Republican Steve Hilton and Democrat Tom Steyer were running closely for second place. Under California’s top-two primary system, the two candidates who receive the most votes advance to the general election regardless of party.

A major factor clouding the race is the pace of ballot returns among Democratic voters. Although millions of Californians have already voted by mail or returned ballots, turnout remains low compared with general elections. As of Sunday, 15.10% of ballots statewide had been submitted, according to Political Data Inc., a voter data firm. That is nearly in line with the June 2022 primary, when 14.53% of ballots had been returned three days before Election Day.

But the partisan breakdown shows a notable shift. Democratic voters have returned 15% of their ballots so far, down from 17% at the same point in 2022. Republican voters, meanwhile, are moving faster than they did four years ago, with 19% of GOP ballots returned, compared with 17% in 2022.

Paul Mitchell, vice president of Political Data Inc., said several factors may explain the difference. Republican voters have a simpler choice, with two major candidates in the race, while Democrats are weighing a larger field that includes six leading contenders. Republicans also have a long history of voting early by mail, a habit Mitchell said may be returning after former President Donald Trump discouraged mail voting in 2020.

Among Democrats, Mitchell said the slowest ballot returns are coming from older white voters, many of whom may still be undecided or waiting to vote strategically. Because California’s primary rules allow two candidates from the same party to advance, some Democratic voters may be concerned about how best to ensure at least one Democrat reaches the November runoff.

“All the stories about two Republicans making the runoff, they might be calculating their vote to make sure that they’re voting in a way that is strategic to make sure that a Democrat gets onto the general election,” Mitchell said.

Kevin Callan, also with Political Data Inc., said some Democrats may not be deeply enthusiastic about any one candidate but still recognize that the June result could effectively decide the state’s next governor.

“Democrat voters know that whichever Democrat candidate makes it into the runoff will be our next governor,” Callan said. “That adds more weight to their decision.”

For voters across Southern California and the Inland Empire, the outcome of the primary will determine who remains in contention to lead the nation’s most populous state for the next four years. With many ballots still outstanding, the final hours of voting could prove decisive.

Original source: CalMatters

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Only about 8% of ballots statewide had been returned so far, according to ballot-tracking data, leaving a large share of the electorate to make decisions in the final stretch. For voters in Southern California and the Inland Empire who are still undecided, the governor’s race remains especially crowded and fluid.

A recent Democratic Party poll showed Republican Steve Hilton narrowly ahead at 22%, followed closely by Democrat Xavier Becerra at 21%. Democrat Tom Steyer was in third place with 15%, according to the poll.

California’s primary system can add to the uncertainty for voters who are used to party-based contests. Under the state’s “top two” open primary, all candidates appear on the same ballot, and the two candidates who receive the most votes advance to the November general election, regardless of party affiliation.

That means two Democrats, two Republicans or candidates from any combination of parties could move forward. California adopted the system after voters approved Proposition 14 in 2010, allowing voters to choose any candidate in a primary election, no matter their own party registration.

With a large field of candidates and no clear frontrunner, the possibility of two candidates from the same party advancing is a real one this year.

For those voting by mail, timing is now critical. Ballots must be postmarked on or before Election Day and received by county elections offices within seven days. Election officials recommend mailing ballots at least five days before June 2 to reduce the risk of delays.

Voters who prefer not to mail their ballots can return them at an official drop box or vote in person. Polls will be open on Election Day from 7 a.m. to 8 p.m. Voters can find polling places and ballot drop-off locations through the California Secretary of State’s election websites.

The campaign has already made stops in Southern California, including an April gubernatorial debate at Bridges Auditorium on the Pomona College campus in Claremont, where candidates appeared before voters and media less than six weeks before Election Day.

Voters looking for additional information can review nonpartisan voter guides that include details on statewide offices, legislative and congressional races, and candidate responses in the governor’s race. CalMatters is also holding voter information events this month in partnership with local news organizations, colleges and nonprofits, with upcoming events scheduled in Merced, Fresno and Modesto.

Original source: CalMatters

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As of the latest statewide ballot-tracking figures cited by Political Data Inc., about 92% of California voters had not yet returned their ballots. Voters still have time, but election officials urge residents not to wait until the last moment, especially if they plan to vote by mail.

The June 2 primary features a wide-open contest for governor, with several well-known Democrats and Republicans competing for just two spots on the November ballot. Under California’s primary system, the top two vote-getters advance to the general election regardless of party.

The field became especially fluid after some of the state’s most prominent Democrats, including former Vice President Kamala Harris and U.S. Sen. Alex Padilla, opted not to run. Former Rep. Eric Swalwell had appeared to be gaining support among Democratic voters earlier in the year, but he left the race after allegations of sexual misconduct.

The candidates include Xavier Becerra, a Democrat and former U.S. Health and Human Services secretary who previously served as California attorney general; Chad Bianco, a Republican and Riverside County sheriff; Steve Hilton, a Republican, former Fox News host and former adviser to British Prime Minister David Cameron; Matt Mahan, a Democrat and mayor of San Jose; Katie Porter, a Democrat and former Orange County congresswoman; Tom Steyer, a Democratic billionaire entrepreneur and former presidential candidate; Tony Thurmond, a Democrat and California’s superintendent of public instruction; and Antonio Villaraigosa, a Democrat, former Los Angeles mayor and former Assembly speaker.

Recent polling has not shown a decisive front-runner. A Democratic Party poll showed Hilton at 22%, Becerra at 21% and Steyer at 15%, leaving open the possibility of a closely contested finish.

California’s top-two primary system has been in place since voters approved Proposition 14 in 2010. Supporters said it would encourage candidates to appeal beyond their party bases, while critics warned it could narrow choices by allowing two candidates from the same party to advance to November. With so many contenders in the governor’s race, that remains a possibility this year.

Voters who still plan to mail their ballots should make sure the envelopes are postmarked on or before Election Day and received by county election offices within seven days. Election officials generally recommend mailing ballots at least five days before June 2. Those mailing close to the deadline should consider taking the ballot inside a post office and requesting a hand-stamped postmark.

Ballots also may be returned at official drop boxes or voting locations. Polls will be open from 7 a.m. to 8 p.m. on Election Day. Voters can look up polling places and ballot drop-off sites through the California Secretary of State’s office or their county elections office.

Results will begin coming in on election night, but final tallies will take longer. County election officials must begin reporting results to the secretary of state no more than two hours after they start counting. Counties have 30 days to complete their counts and submit final results, and the state has 38 days to certify the election.

In addition to governor, voters will see several statewide offices on the ballot, including superintendent of public instruction, lieutenant governor, controller, secretary of state, treasurer and insurance commissioner.

Another office on the ballot is the Board of Equalization, an elected tax board created by the state in 1879. Its authority is now limited largely to property tax oversight, though the office has also served as a steppingstone for politicians seeking higher office.

For Inland Empire voters, the governor’s race carries a local connection through Bianco, the Riverside County sheriff, who is among the Republicans seeking a place in the November runoff. But with the field divided and many ballots still unreturned, the outcome remains uncertain heading into the final days of voting.

Original source: CalMatters

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Voters should confirm their registration status, look over their ballot information and check the latest guidance from the Sacramento County elections office for details on voting options, ballot return procedures and in-person voting locations.

Residents can also consult the California Secretary of State’s office for statewide election information, including registration resources and official voter guidance.

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Because, after all, the former hedge fund titan doesn’t exactly share their daily ordeal of scraping up enough money to pay for rent, groceries and gas in the run-down car.

And he doesn’t have any record in public office to point to. He’s trying to start his elective career at the top.
So, what’s the solution? Well, you can be a global celebrity like super-rich actor Arnold Schwarzenegger when he was elected in 2003. Or a Gold Rush tycoon like Leland Stanford back in 1861. Other than those two, there’s a long list of well-heeled rookie failures.

They include Republican Meg Whitman, who blew $144 million of her fortune losing in 2010. And Al Checchi, who spent $40 million of his own money getting beaten in the 1994 Democratic primary.

“Look, they didn’t have anything to say,” Steyer told me while sipping tea at a popular hangout near the state Capitol, specifically mentioning Whitman and Checchi. “They’d never done anything. Not like I’ve done for 14 years.”

Steyer, 68, who lives in the San Francisco Bay Area, touts his record of funding and promoting progressive causes, including successful ballot campaigns that raised tobacco taxes, closed a major corporate tax loophole and beat back oil industry efforts to kill climate fighting laws.

“I could give you 10 things I’ve done about environmental sustainability and economic justice,” he said.

“Why trust me? Because I’ve gotten results. And I don’t owe anybody anything.”

The Democrat spent $12 million on TV ads last year pushing Gov. Gavin Newsom’s Proposition 50 that allowed the Legislature to gerrymander congressional districts aimed at gaining five more Democratic seats in California.

Being a billionaire allows Steyer to buy all the TV spots he wants. He already has popped for $27 million worth running for governor.

But astronomical wealth comes with a political price.

“California voters do not cotton to some rich guy who has never spent a day in office but looks in the mirror one morning and suddenly sees a governor of California,” says veteran Democratic strategist Garry South.

So, in his campaign TV commercials, Steyer wears casual backyard barbecue garb trying to look like Mr. Average, but with a populist agenda.

“I’m the billionaire who’s going to take on the billionaires,” he says.

That sounds counterintuitive, and I’m skeptical about how well it sells.

Steyer knows he sorely needs labor support to seem credible among the working class. That’s why he recently joined rallies for striking teachers in San Francisco and healthcare workers in San Diego.

He has scored endorsements from the California School Employees Assn. — a union representing school staff — and the California Nurses Assn.

Nurses are backing Steyer largely because he has embraced their No. 1 goal: a single-payer, state-run health insurance system.

They’ve attempted to push that in Sacramento for years and failed. And for good reason.

Single-payer would cost the state barrels of money it doesn’t have. Moreover, it would replace not only private insurance, but popular federal Medicare and the state’s Medi-Cal program for the poor. The federal government would need to agree. Fat chance.

I asked Steyer whether he really believes the state bureaucracy is capable of handling such an ambitious undertaking.

“We’re going to have to get back to having a government that works,” he replied, in what sounded like a knock on Newsom and his predecessors.

How could he make a single-payer system work? “God is in the details,” he answered, a phrase he frequently uses. Translation: “I don’t know.”

“We’re going to work through it. That’ll take at least three years… But we’re going to have to do it…. Healthcare costs have been escalating for a very long time. And they’re eating up the [state] budget.”

After Steyer left hedge fund investing, he became an ardent crusader for clean energy and fighting climate change. It was his core issue running for president in 2020, when he spent $340 million before giving up.

But these days, he barely mentions climate. The better politics du jour is advocating for “affordability” — especially affordable housing.

Steyer said he doesn’t have a “silver bullet” for lowering housing costs. He has “silver buckshot” — a scattergun of solutions for boosting housing supply, plus rent control.

He’d shorten the time for issuing construction permits, require rezoning to develop vacant land, tax unoccupied housing left off the market and build higher — more like in New York’s Manhattan, where he was raised.

“What we’re doing is sprawl,” he said. “And what sprawl leads to is an awful lot of commuting, a lot of driving.”

That’s been a problem for generations, I noted. Suburban ranch-style housing is the California way. “People can change,” he said. “I think people want to.”

I asked him about the slow-poke bullet train project that’s costing four times original estimates.

“Of course, I’m in favor of high speed rail,” he said. “But good grief. We’ve been working on this for an incredibly long time and spent an incredible amount of money. As far as I can tell, we haven’t built anything. If we’re going to do high-speed rail, we have to build it at a reasonable price. And we haven’t been able to do that.”

Might he abandon the project? “I want to look at it,” he said.

The odds are against him ever getting the opportunity.

But the odds aren’t exciting for any candidate in this ho-hum contest.

Steyer is running in the middle of the pack, based on polls. He has hired the strategists who managed Democratic Socialist Zohran Mamdani’s victorious campaign for New York mayor.

There’s no front-runner for governor. But Rep. Eric Swalwell (D-Dublin) has some momentum. He recently was endorsed by Sen. Adam Schiff. And he’ll also soon be endorsed by influential former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, I’m told.

Voters will do their all-important endorsing in the June 2 primary.

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