With coronavirus cases rising in parts of Europe and Asia, scientists worry that an extra-contagious version of the omicron variant may soon push cases up in the United States too.

Experts are also keeping their eyes on another mutant: a rare delta-omicron hybrid that they say doesn’t pose much of a threat right now but shows how wily the coronavirus can be.

The U.S. will likely see an uptick in cases caused by the omicron descendant BA.2 starting in the next few weeks, according to Dr. Eric Topol, head of Scripps Research Translational Institute.

“It’s inevitable we will see a BA.2 wave here,” he said.

One reason? After about two months of falling COVID-19 cases, pandemic restrictions have been lifted across the U.S. Many people are taking off their masks and returning to indoor spaces like restaurants and theaters.

And the latest data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention shows the share caused by BA.2 is up significantly. The CDC reported Tuesday that the variant accounted for about 35% of new infections last week. In the Northeast, it was about half.

Dr. Anthony Fauci, the U.S. government’s top infectious disease expert, told ABC’s “This Week” over the weekend that he also thinks the U.S. will likely face an “uptick” similar to what’s happening in Europe, particularly the United Kingdom, where BA.2 is the dominant strain. He said he doesn’t think it will be a “surge.”

The U.K. has “had the same situation as we’ve had now,” Fauci said. “They have BA.2. They have a relaxation of some restrictions such as indoor masking and there’s a waning of immunity” from vaccines and past infections.

Keri Althoff, a researcher at Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, cautioned that CDC case counts underestimate the true numbers because some people are no longer getting tested and others are testing at home and not reporting the results. Also, she said, not every specimen is genetically sequenced to determine the variant.

It’s clear, she said, “BA.2 is coming onto the scene.”

One reason the variant has gained ground, scientists say, is that it’s about 30% more contagious than the original omicron. In rare cases, research shows it can sicken people even if they’ve already had an omicron infection — although it doesn’t seem to cause more severe disease.

Vaccines appear just as effective against both types of omicron, but breakthrough infections are possible. And experts point out that vaccination rates are lower in the U.S. than the U.K. About 74% of those 12 and older are fully vaccinated in the U.S, compared with 86% in the U.K.

”We need to emphasize that we’re not protected in this country compared to peer countries,” Topol said.

Still, not all experts are equally concerned about a BA.2-related rise in U.S. cases. Dr. James Musser, head of genomic medicine and infectious diseases at Houston Methodist, said the variant has so far only caused about 1% to 3% of cases in his medical system. Cases there have usually tracked closely with what’s happening in the U.K.

He called BA.2 “something we’re keeping an eye on,” but said, “I’m not losing sleep” over it.

That’s how many scientists view the other variant that some in the public are calling “deltacron,” a hybrid containing genetic information from both delta and omicron.

Earlier this month, Maria Van Kerkhove of the World Health Organization said the hybrid has been detected at “very low levels” in France, the Netherlands and Denmark. And two recent studies, which have not yet been peer-reviewed, point to a tiny number of cases in the U.S.

Much remains unknown about the hybrid. There’s no evidence it causes more severe disease, and it doesn’t look like it’s infecting many people. CDC researchers identified 9 samples, seven from the mid-Atlantic region in a study released Monday that hasn’t yet been peer-reviewed. Topol, who was not involved in the research, said there’s no evidence it has the potential to spread.

It’s common for coronaviruses to shuffle gene segments, said Dr. Stuart Campbell Ray, an infectious disease expert at Johns Hopkins University. With two variants circulating at the same time, people may get double infections, and a “progeny virus” could emerge.

Given the virus’ ability to spawn new mutants — and the rise of BA.2 — experts say people should get vaccinated if they’re not and keep their masks handy.

“Keep your guard up,” Topol said. “This is not over.”

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GENEVA (AP) — The World Health Organization chief said Tuesday that 90 million cases of coronavirus have been reported since the omicron variant was first identified 10 weeks ago — amounting to more than in all of 2020, the first year of the COVID-19 pandemic.

With many countries easing their restrictive measures amid public fatigue about them, WHO Director-General Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyeus cautioned that omicron should not be underestimated even though it has shown to bring less severe illness than earlier variants — and cited “a very worrying increase in deaths in most regions of the world.”

“We are concerned that a narrative has taken hold in some countries that because of vaccines — and because of omicron’s high transmissibility and lower severity — preventing transmission is no longer possible and no longer necessary,” he told a regular WHO briefing on the pandemic.

“Nothing could be further from the truth,” Tedros added. “It’s premature for any country either to surrender or to declare victory. This virus is dangerous and it continues to evolve before our very eyes.”

WHO said four of its six regions worldwide are seeing increasing trends in deaths.

Many European countries have begun easing lockdown measures, including Britain, France, Ireland and the Netherlands. Finland will end its COVID-19 restrictions this month.

On Tuesday, Denmark’s government scrapped most restrictions aimed at fighting the pandemic, saying it no longer considers COVID-19 “a socially critical disease.” The nation of 5.8 million has in recent weeks seen more than 50,000 new cases a day, but the number of patients in intensive care units has declined.

“Now is not the time to lift everything all at once. We have always urged — always urged — caution in applying interventions as well as lifting those interventions in a steady and in a slow way, piece by piece,” said Maria Van Kerkhove, WHO’s technical lead on COVID-19.

Dr. Michael Ryan, the WHO emergencies chief, said countries with higher vaccination rates “have more choices” about whether to ease their restrictions, but said they should assess factors like their current epidemiology, at-risk populations, immunity in the population, and access to health care tools to fight the pandemic.

Speaking to countries’ governments, he said: “Every country has to find its feet, know where it is, know where it wants to go, and chart its path … You can look at what other countries are doing. But please don’t just follow blindly what every other country is doing.”

Ryan expressed concern that “political pressure will result in people in some countries opening prematurely — and that will result in unnecessary transmission, unnecessary severe disease, and unnecessary death.”

Meanwhile, Van Kerkhove also said a group of experts that was set up last year to look into the emergence of new pathogens like the coronavirus — and assess its origins — is expected to issue a report “in the coming weeks.” She said the group, known by the acronym SAGO, has held about a half-dozen meetings since its first one in late November.

She said the group would, among other things, look at early epidemiological studies and “our current understanding of the origins of this particular pandemic, building upon previous missions that have gone to China and worked with Chinese scientists.” She alluded to the work of another WHO-led team that traveled to China, where the pandemic first emerged, and reported on the outbreak in March last year.

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MIAMI (AP) — The U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention is investigating more cruise ships due to new cases of COVID-19 as the omicron variant drives extremely high infection levels in the industry hub of Florida.

The CDC said 88 vessels are now either under investigation or observation, but it did not specify how many COVID-19 cases have been reported. Four other vessels are also being monitored by the CDC as well.

Florida hit a new record for daily cases on Tuesday with 46,900 new cases in a day. Since Christmas, the state’s 7-day average of daily cases has surpassed previous records set during last summer’s surge, rising to 29,400 infections.

Coronavirus hospitalizations in the state have also risen from about 1,200 patients two weeks ago to about 3,400 on Wednesday. But that is still less than one-fifth the number of hospitalizations reported in late August due to the delta wave.

Democratic Sen. Richard Blumenthal is calling for the CDC and cruise lines to again halt cruise travel, six months after the industry mounted its comeback.

“Our warnings have proved sadly prescient and continuously compelling. Time for CDC and cruise lines to protect consumers, again pause — docking their ships,” the Connecticut senator posted on Twitter.

Cruise lines have not announced any plans to halt cruising. And the CDC did not say it would adopt any changes, adding it still had plans to allow for the expiration of a set of rules that cruises must follow to sail during the pandemic. The regulation, called a conditional sailing order, is scheduled to expire on Jan. 15 to become a voluntary program.

“CDC acknowledges that it is not possible for cruising to be a zero-risk activity,” CDC spokesperson Jasmine Reed said in an emailed statement.

Most lines require adult passengers to show proof of vaccination against COVID-19. Cruise ships are allowed to relax measures such as mask use if at least 95% of passengers and 95% of crew are fully vaccinated.

The federal agency recommends that people avoid cruise travel if they are at increased risk of severe illness, regardless of vaccination status.

None of the ships so far appear to have so many cases that they would overwhelm medical resources on board and require a return to port. But some have been denied entry at some foreign ports.

Several Florida-based ships have reported outbreaks. The Carnival Freedom was denied entry to Aruba and Bonaire after an undisclosed number of passengers and crew aboard caught the virus.

Some cruise ships have not been allowed to disembark in Mexican ports due to cases reported, bringing to memory the early days of the pandemic when cruise lines negotiated docking plans as ships were being turned away by officials worried about the virus’s spread.

The Mexican government said Tuesday it would allow cruise ships with reported coronavirus cases to dock. The country’s Health Department said passengers or crew who show no symptoms will be allowed to come ashore normally, while those with symptoms or a positive virus test will be quarantined or given medical care.

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The county has a total of 336,053 coronavirus cases and 4,731 deaths.

The update for the Coachella Valley cities and communities will be updated weekly.

Coachella Valley city and community weekly totals as of Aug. 30, 2021, include 932 new COVID19 cases and 4 new deaths:

Desert Hot Springs: 4,596 (+106) cases, 77 (+1) deaths

Cathedral City: 7,735 (+143) cases, 114 deaths

Palm Springs: 4,402 (+74) cases, 131 (+1) deaths

Rancho Mirage: 1,278 (+27) cases, 51 deaths

Palm Desert: 4,571 (+103) cases, 122 (+1) deaths

Indian Wells: 222 (+4) cases, 6 deaths

La Quinta: 3,931 (+87) cases, 61 (+1) deaths

Indio: 13,424 (+221) cases, 228 deaths

Coachella: 8,293 (+78) cases, 97 deaths

Thousand Palms: 1,150 (+18) cases, 9 deaths

Bermuda Dunes: 771 (+23) cases, 10 deaths

Thermal: 496 (+3) cases, 9 deaths

Mecca: 1,161 (+8) cases, 19 deaths

North Shore: 365 (+2) cases, 1 death

Oasis: 929 (+9) cases, 8 deaths

Sky Valley: 251 (+3) cases, 5 deaths

Cabazon: 359 (+12) cases, 7 death

Anza: 165 (+11) cases, 1 death

There are 8,955 active cases of coronavirus. This number is derived from the total number of confirmed cases and the subtraction of the total number of recoveries and deaths.

According to the Riverside University Health System, 664 patients infected with coronavirus were hospitalized countywide as of Tuesday. That number includes 146 patients in intensive care units.

There are 4 new fatalities to report; keeping the county’s coronavirus death toll to 4,731. Fatalities are considered trailing indicators because of delays processing death certificates, meaning deaths that are newly reported may have actually occurred as much as a month ago, according to health officials.

RUHS is attempting to collect statistics on the number of hospitalizations involving residents who have been partially or fully vaccinated, according to agency spokesman Jose Arballo. Health officials across the country have said current hospitalizations are overwhelmingly occurring among unvaccinated people, although there are also so-called “breakthrough” cases involving those who are fully vaccinated.

“I am working with administration to get some system for tracking,” Arballo told City News Service. “The hospitals may provide that to the state, and we are trying to get a system in place to retrieve that data.”

The number of documented patient recoveries stands at 322,367.

The doubling time — or the number of days in which documented virus cases increase 100% — is 246 days. A doubling rate of seven days is reason for alarm, while expanding doubling times point to moderation, or gradual success in virus containment, according to health officials.

The county’s COVID positivity rate is 10.6%, down from 11.0% Friday, while the state-adjusted case rate is 36 per 100,000 residents, based on a rolling seven-day average.

The recent increase in COVID cases mirrors a nationwide surge, and officials have theorized the highly infectious Delta variant has helped fuel the escalation. The mid-June relaxation of lockdown measures is also seen as a key factor in increased virus spread.

According to RUHS, about 60% of all county residents have either been fully or partially vaccinated and about 51.4% of the population has been fully vaccinated. Information on vaccination is available at rivcoph.org/coronavirus.

The portal to make an appointment for vaccination can be accessed via www.rivcoph.org/COVID-19-Vaccine. Anyone who needs assistance may also call the county’s 211 help-line.

Residents of all ages are encouraged to get tested, with or without symptoms, to identify where the disease is currently present in the community and where it is not. Testing continues to be an integral focus as more residents visit more businesses. Visit www.rivcoph.org/coronavirus/testing for more information on testing locations and how to make an appointment.

CNS & Ceci Partridge | Contributed

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Jeffrey Shaman, PhD, a professor of environmental health sciences known for his COVID-19 projections, led the research, based on case numbers and anonymized cellphone location data to estimate population mixing. The findings appear ahead of peer review in a report by NPR.

At the worst day of the pandemic so far, on January 2, 91 out of every 100,000 people in the U.S. tested positive. In fact, 998 per 100,000 people were actively shedding the virus on that day, according to the study’s estimates. In some areas, this discrepancy was even more profound: In Los Angeles, at the peak of the winter surge, 3 percent of the county’s population was infectious, or roughly 3,000 per 100,000.

While cases are in decline nationally, as recently as late January, 1.26 million people were still shedding the virus. “That’s a very, very high level,” Shaman told NPR. “That means there are a still lot of people out there who are actively infected, who are passing it on, and who could expose people at risk.”

One-Third of U.S. May Have Been Infected

The new study estimates that more than 120 million people have been infected across the country as of the end of January, just over a third of the U.S. population. In some states, the numbers are even higher. In North Dakota, an estimated 52 percent of the population has been infected. In New York, that share is only slightly lower, at 46 percent. Vermont and Hawaii have seen the least infections, with estimates at 11 percent and 3 percent, respectively.

Even though significant portions of residents of some states have been infected, most have likely not achieved herd immunity, particularly as immunity gained by infections may have waned. It is also unclear to what extent immunity will carry over to the new, more virulent strains now circulating.

Need for Continued Vigilance

The research underscores the importance of a quick and orderly vaccine roll-out, as well as continued public health control measures like masking and limits on public gatherings. In study findings published in January in the New York Times, Shaman and his team estimated that 29 million additional infections will occur in the U.S. if current measures are lifted in February compared to a scenario in which they are maintained at least through July.

“If we let up now, given how much infection is out there, we’re going to make it so that many, many more people are going to get the virus before they ever have the chance to get the vaccine,” Shaman told NPR.

Publichealth.columbia.edu • Contributed

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