Born and raised in Hanford, the Republican congressman grew up milking cows before school on his family’s dairy farm. To many of his Central Valley neighbors, he’s not “Congressman Valadao” — he’s just “David.” That familiarity has helped him survive in a district where registered Democrats significantly outnumber Republicans, allowing him to win five of his six congressional races since 2012.

But as the 2026 midterms approach, with inflation squeezing household budgets and President Trump’s approval ratings sagging, Valadao’s homegrown appeal may not be enough to save him this time.

“Unfortunately, David Valadao’s vote could be the one that gives Trump the power,” said Don Cameron, a longtime Fresno County farmer and registered Democrat who has voted for Republicans in the past. “I wish it wasn’t David Valadao, because he’s a good guy. I just wish the current administration was more moderate and more supportive of agriculture.”

Valadao declined multiple interview requests for this story. A spokesperson said he was unavailable to comment.

Standing in his way is Democrat Randy Villegas, a community college professor and school board trustee running an unabashedly populist campaign backed by the Working Families Party and progressive figures including Sen. Bernie Sanders and Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez. Villegas surprised many in June’s primary by defeating the more centrist, establishment-favored Democrat, Assemblymember Jasmeet Bains.

Valadao has lost reelection only once since first winning his seat in 2012 — during the 2018 “blue wave” that swept Democrats into control of the House during Trump’s first term. He won a rematch two years later against Democrat T.J. Cox. Notably, Valadao remains the only sitting House Republican who voted to impeach Trump following the Jan. 6, 2021, attack on the Capitol.

Villegas, who is not a farmer himself, argues that it’s time for someone who understands farmworkers — not just farm owners — to represent the district. As the son of Mexican immigrant farm laborers, he says he has a personal stake in the region’s agricultural economy.

“Everybody and anybody knows somebody who works in agriculture in the valley,” Villegas said. “And anybody in the valley will tell you that workers and agriculture are struggling right now because of Valadao and this administration.”

A farming legacy

Valadao’s connection to agriculture runs deep. His father, Eduardo, immigrated from the Portuguese Azores, where he had grown up working on his family’s dairy farm. After settling in California, Eduardo and his wife, Maria, built their own dairy operation from the ground up — buying their first cows, then eventually their own land. Valadao grew up doing chores before school, a life he’s often referenced on the campaign trail.

His latest television ad plays up that identity, showing him walking through a tree nut orchard alongside an unnamed farmer with the tagline: “David Valadao is on our side.”

He has also cultivated a reputation as a bipartisan dealmaker, frequently teaming up with fellow Central Valley Reps. Jim Costa and Adam Gray, both Democrats, on water and agriculture issues.

“In the Central Valley, we care a whole lot more about ag and water than partisan politics,” Valadao said in a video posted to his congressional YouTube channel last December.

That reputation has translated into financial backing from agricultural interests. Campaign finance records show Valadao has received more than $30,000 from dairy, poultry and sugar industry political committees. Shannon Douglass, president of the California Farm Bureau, recently praised him for pushing House Republican leaders to direct more emergency relief funding toward specialty crop growers — the fruits, vegetables and nuts that dominate California agriculture.

“Farmers are happy with him, and they sure as hell are going to take him any day over someone that would seem to be a socialist and who doesn’t have any ag credentials,” said Rob Stutzman, a Republican strategist.

A liability on healthcare and food aid

Still, Valadao’s voting record on other issues important to his district — particularly healthcare and nutrition assistance — could work against him.

Democrats have repeatedly criticized him for casting the deciding vote to pass Trump’s sweeping budget package last year, which cut an estimated $28.4 billion from California’s Medicaid program, Medi-Cal, and is projected to strip health coverage from roughly 3.4 million Californians.

“He’s looking out for his billionaire buddies,” Villegas said. “He doesn’t actually care about the agricultural industry here in the valley.”

The same legislation slashed federal funding for the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program, or SNAP, by roughly 20% — a program overseen in part by the House Agriculture Committee, on which Valadao sits.

Rising costs squeeze farmers

Financial hardship is nothing new for California farmers, but the past year has brought fresh challenges. Volatile crop prices and climbing costs for fertilizer and fuel have accelerated a long-term shift away from independent, family-run farms. Between 2002 and 2022, the number of farms in California dropped by roughly 20%, even as the average farm size grew by more than 5%, according to the most recent U.S. Census of Agriculture.

Trump’s unpredictable tariff policies, along with the war in Iran and the resulting disruption to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, have added even more uncertainty.

“It’s been a difficult 16 months,” Cameron said, pointing to surging diesel prices as a particular burden during harvest season.

The American Farm Bureau Federation has urged the Trump administration to deploy Navy escorts to protect fertilizer shipments moving through the Middle East, warning in a letter to the president that supply disruptions could trigger a repeat of the historic food price spikes seen in 2022.

Valadao, however, has largely pinned rising fuel costs on state policy rather than global instability, pointing to California’s gas tax and restrictions on oil drilling.

“We’ve always had the highest fuel prices in California, and it’s not because of a war that started two weeks ago,” he told a Bakersfield television station in March, adding that blaming Iran for fuel costs was “false.”

Latino farmers feel left behind

The impact of rising costs and shifting federal policy has fallen hardest on nonwhite and non-English-speaking farmers. More than 65% of residents in Valadao’s district are Latino, according to the California Target Book.

Advocates say the Trump administration’s restructuring of the U.S. Department of Agriculture has made it harder for underrepresented farmers to access loans and support services that have historically helped them establish and grow their operations.

“Our members were complaining that the USDA offices, their local USDA offices, would tell them they don’t fit the definition of a farmer now,” said Benny Corona, a Tulare County organizer with Latino Farmers and Ranchers International. “They felt like they were being put through a lot of hurdles that weren’t there before.”

Corona, who supports Villegas, said his organization tries to build relationships with lawmakers from both parties but has found Democrats far more receptive.

“I don’t really think Republicans are really interested in promoting and investing in Latino farmers,” he said. “We don’t have a relationship with Valadao.”

Some political observers believe Valadao’s continued skepticism about the economic toll of tariffs and the Iran conflict could alienate voters who might otherwise give him the benefit of the doubt.

“I think he’s very likely to lose this year,” said Mike Madrid, a Republican political consultant. “The fundamentals are too anti-Republican, too anti-Trump for anyone to care.”

Original source: CalMatters

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Assemblymember Jasmeet Bains, a Democrat representing the oil-rich Bakersfield area, found that out the hard way. Back in 2023, as a newly elected legislator, Bains stood alone among her fellow Democrats when she voted against a bill backed by Gov. Gavin Newsom that aimed to crack down on oil company profits. It was a vote that reflected her district’s economic ties to the petroleum industry, but it also marked her as an outlier within her own party.

That independent streak may have cost her. When Bains launched a bid for Congress this year, she lost the Democratic primary to Randy Villegas, a college professor whose more progressive platform resonated with primary voters. Villegas will now face off against Republican U.S. Rep. David Valadao in the November general election, while Bains’ moderate approach — and her willingness to cross party lines — appears to have left her on the outside looking in.

Her defeat raises a pointed question for other lawmakers in Sacramento who occasionally vote against their party: What’s the political cost of independence, and is that kind of maverick behavior becoming an endangered species as California’s electorate grows increasingly polarized?

Assemblymember Juan Alanis, a Modesto Republican, isn’t backing down despite the risk. He knows that a future primary opponent from his party’s right flank could someday use his votes for Democratic-authored bills as ammunition against him. But he says he plans to keep voting according to his conscience and the needs of his district, regardless of the political fallout.

“If a right-wing challenger wants to make an issue of that, then so be it,” Alanis said.

A recent analysis of legislative voting records conducted by CalMatters’ Digital Democracy team examined just how uncommon these breaks from party orthodoxy have become. The review found that lawmakers like Bains and Alanis — willing to cast the lone dissenting vote when the rest of their party lines up the other way — are a rare breed in today’s Capitol, among both Democrats and Republicans.

Reporters interviewed several of these outlier legislators from both parties about why they feel comfortable straying from the party line, and whether they worry that partisan primary challengers might one day use those votes against them at the ballot box. Their answers shed light on the shrinking space for political independence in an era of hardening partisan divides — a dynamic playing out well beyond the Central Valley and increasingly shaping races across California, including here in the Inland Empire.

In other news around the region and state:

California continues to make gradual progress on student reading scores, but a shortage of literacy coaches — educators best equipped to help struggling readers catch up — is complicating the state’s multibillion-dollar push to improve literacy outcomes. Mississippi, by contrast, saw its fourth-grade reading rankings jump from 49th in the nation in 2013 to 9th by 2024, a turnaround officials there credit in part to an aggressive expansion of literacy coaching programs. California, meanwhile, has struggled to fill those same coaching positions, even as it climbs from a 47th-place ranking in 2013 toward the middle of the pack nationally.

Closer to home, a federal judge has ordered improvements at the Adelanto ICE Processing Center in San Bernardino County after detainees alleged dangerously poor drinking water and inadequate medical care. U.S. District Judge Sunshine Suzanne Sykes issued a preliminary ruling last week finding that detainees who sued over conditions at the facility were likely to succeed in proving their constitutional rights had been violated. The GEO Group, the private, for-profit company that operates Adelanto under contract with the Department of Homeland Security, did not comment on the ruling; DHS has argued in court filings that it bears no responsibility for its contractor’s conduct. The lawsuit followed the deaths last fall of two detainees, 39-year-old Ismael Ayala-Uribe, a former DACA recipient, and 56-year-old Gabriel Garcia-Aviles — both of which remain under federal investigation amid growing scrutiny of detention conditions nationwide under the Trump administration.

Original source: CalMatters

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Villegas, a progressive Democrat endorsed by Sen. Bernie Sanders and Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, defeated Assemblymember Jasmeet Bains, a physician and more moderate Democrat who had support from state and national party leaders. His primary performance marked a significant upset in a Central Valley district long viewed as difficult terrain for Democrats.

With more than 32% of the vote in Tuesday’s top-two primary, Villegas secured a place on the general election ballot alongside Valadao, who had already advanced. Bains represents much of the congressional district in the state Legislature, but Villegas, a first-time congressional candidate, outpaced her despite the party establishment’s preference for a centrist contender.

The Bakersfield-centered 22nd District is considered one of the most important battlegrounds in the country as Democrats seek to regain control of the House. Valadao has repeatedly survived in a district where Democrats see an opportunity, making him one of California’s toughest Republican incumbents.

Villegas said in an interview with CalMatters that his campaign proved it could compete through field organizing, fundraising and voter outreach without accepting corporate political action committee money.

“It’s clear that voters are looking for change, and voters are looking for someone who’s actually going to represent the valley’s values and not somebody who’s going to continuously sell us out to corporate interests and to billionaire donors,” Villegas said. “This seat is not for sale.”

The primary became a test of competing Democratic strategies in a conservative-leaning district with a large working-class and Latino electorate. For years, Democrats have often favored moderate candidates in swing seats, arguing they are better positioned to appeal to independents and Republican-leaning voters.

That approach has not worked against Valadao in recent cycles. Former Assemblymember Rudy Salas, another moderate Central Valley Democrat, ran against Valadao in both 2022 and 2024 and lost both contests.

Villegas’ campaign leaned into economic populism, anti-corruption messaging and criticism of corporate influence in politics. He received support from the Working Families Party, a progressive organization that backs candidates and policies focused on working- and middle-class voters.

His win also came despite a major late campaign push against him. Federal campaign finance records show outside groups spent more than $2.2 million on anti-Villegas messaging in the final month. Those groups included the AIPAC-aligned Democratic Majority for Israel, super PACs tied to centrist House Democratic caucuses and the Congressional Leadership Fund, the super PAC aligned with House Republicans.

Kevin Liao, a Democratic strategist not involved in the race, said Villegas benefited from an energetic and accessible campaign, including town halls, forums and door-to-door canvassing.

“You’ve gotta get people motivated to show up and pull your lever, and that’s what he did,” Liao said.

Bains and Valadao both declined to debate Villegas, skipped candidate forums and did not participate in press interviews. Bains declined multiple interview requests from CalMatters and instead provided written statements through a spokesperson. Her campaign spokesperson did not respond to multiple calls and texts seeking comment for the story.

Liao said the outcome reflected a broader question for Democratic campaigns in competitive districts.

“Are you offering folks a sort of energetic, more ambitious vision for what government can offer? Or are you merely saying, ‘Hey, we have to win this seat and defeat a Republican’?” he said. “I think the voters, at least in that district, spoke pretty clearly.”

The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, which had endorsed Bains, moved quickly to support Villegas after the results, calling the November campaign “full steam ahead.”

Elsewhere in California’s congressional primaries, several key matchups also took shape.

In the San Diego-based 48th District, California’s only other toss-up congressional seat, Republican County Supervisor Jim Desmond will face Democratic San Diego City Councilmember Marni von Wilpert in November. Von Wilpert advanced over fellow Democrat Ammar Campa-Najjar, who had twice run against retiring Rep. Darrell Issa.

In San Francisco, former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi will not appear on the November ballot after more than two decades in Congress. Her preferred successor, San Francisco Supervisor Connie Chan, will compete against state Sen. Scott Wiener for the heavily Democratic seat.

The results were mixed for younger candidates who campaigned on generational change.

In the affluent northwest suburbs of Los Angeles, Democratic challenger Jake Levine fell short in his effort to take on longtime Democratic Rep. Brad Sherman, who has represented the area for nearly 30 years. Based on votes counted so far, Levine received about 15% of the vote. The liberal 32nd District is expected to feature a general election matchup between Sherman and Republican Larry Thompson.

In Northern California wine country, Democratic Rep. Mike Thompson easily advanced to the November ballot, though his opponent remained undecided. He will face either Democrat Eric Jones, a young former venture capitalist, or Republican Ray Rihele.

In the Sacramento suburbs, Rep. Kevin Kiley, who left the Republican Party to run as an independent, will face former Democratic state Sen. Dr. Richard Pan, according to The Associated Press.

In Sacramento, Democratic Rep. Doris Matsui will face progressive City Councilwoman Mai Vang, a younger challenger backed by the Working Families Party. The Associated Press called the race for Matsui on election night, but as additional ballots were counted in the following week, Vang moved ahead as the top vote-getter.

Original source: CalMatters

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Dr. Jasmeet Bains, a Bakersfield assemblymember, hopes to harness voter outrage at Valadao’s decision to support President Donald Trump’s sweeping domestic policy bill, which experts say could strip health insurance from millions of low-income Californians. Nearly 290,000 residents in his own district are at risk of losing coverage, according to the California Budget and Policy Center.

“That vote was really a betrayal,” Bains said in an interview with CalMatters. “I did not envision ever running for Congress. But this is a matter of a doctor upholding her Hippocratic Oath that she took to protect her patients.”

Valadao, who has represented the Central Valley in Congress for 10 of the last 12 years, repeatedly asserted this year that he would not support any measure that would harm recipients of Medi-Cal, California’s version of Medicaid, the health insurance program for low-income patients and those with disabilities. He even released a statement a week before the vote indicating he would move to block the U.S. Senate’s version of the bill if it came back to the House. 

Yet on July 2, and each time the bill came before him, Valadao cast an “aye” vote. More than two-thirds of the residents in Valadao’s Central Valley district, which includes parts of King’s, Tulare and Kern Counties, rely on Medi-Cal for their health insurance.

Bains, a moderate Democrat known for sometimes opposing her own party in the Legislature, has for months dropped strong hints that she might take on the five-term congressmember in the swing district. In May, she starred in an ad campaign funded by SEIU California that urged viewers to call Valadao and tell him to vote against the GOP megabill. And political insiders interpreted a social media post shortly after the House sent the bill to Trump as an inevitable sign that she would jump into the race. 

“My community overwhelmingly elected me to office to fight for them because they know I am not afraid to go to any length to protect them,” Bains wrote on X the day after the megabill passed. “It might be time to call in the doctor!”

She joins Randy Villegas, a Visalia school board trustee and college professor, as the only two declared challengers in the race so far. Former Assemblymember Rudy Salas, who ran and lost against Valadao in 2022 and 2024, filed paperwork to run in 2026, although he has not announced his candidacy and his campaign raised less than $60 in the most recent quarter. Clovis Democrat Eric Garcia, a disabled Marine veteran whose three previous runs ended with losses in the primary, also filed a statement of candidacy on Tuesday.

Bains said several patients at her family clinic have encouraged her to run to “do something” about the rising costs of health care and the lack of access to physicians. In the Assembly, she spearheaded an effort to bring a University of California medical campus to her district. She secured $8 million in state funding for a local task force to combat the spread of fentanyl, a cause she has championed as a doctor specializing in addiction treatment. 

All eyes are on Valadao’s seat

Valadao has only lost his seat once, as part of the 2018 “blue wave” where Democrats rode a wave of voter discontent with the first Trump administration to reclaim control of the House, highlighting the GOP’s botched effort to repeal the Affordable Care Act. 

After the vote, he defended his support for the megabill as “not an easy decision” and said he still had concerns about how certain aspects would be implemented. 

“Ultimately, I voted for this bill because it does preserve the Medicaid program for its intended recipients – children, pregnant women, the disabled, and elderly,” Valadao wrote. “No piece of legislation is perfect.” 

Christian Martinez, spokesperson for the National Republican Congressional Committee, wrote in a statement that Bains was a “radical Democrat” and that Californians “deserve better.”

Since first winning her Assembly seat in 2022, Bains has earned a reputation as a moderate who frequently breaks ranks with her party. She was the lone Democrat to vote against Gov. Gavin Newsom’s proposal to penalize oil companies that exceed a certain profit margin set by state regulators. As punishment, former Speaker Anthony Rendon temporarily stripped Bains of her post on the Business and Professions Committee, a desirable committee. 

“My constituents have seen me take on my party when it comes to having their back,” Bains said, emphasizing that she often pushes back on issues of affordability. “I could not believe that there was someone that was representing this district that could not do the same.”

The daughter of Indian immigrants, Bains grew up in Delano and returned to the Central Valley after graduating from the Illinois Institute of Technology. As the Great Recession hit and friends and neighbors lost their jobs and health care, Bains quit her job at her father’s Chevrolet dealership in Taft to pursue medical school in Antigua. 

She returned to Kern County for her residency and still sees patients on the weekends. In April she showed up to a Business and Professions Committee hearing dressed in scrubs after working a late night at the clinic.  

Before she has the chance to take on Valadao though, both will need to prevail in the June primary. 

‘I hoped we would have just one candidate’

Villegas leans further left than Bains and has aligned himself with the Working Families Party. While he has resisted the label of “progressive” in favor of “economic populist,” some strategists fear he might be too liberal for the Central Valley. Since launching his campaign in mid-April, Villegas has so far raised more than $230,000.

Local Democratic leaders have said Bains will likely be the front runner to challenge Valadao, given her name recognition as an assemblymember and doctor in an election cycle that will likely be dominated by health care. 

But the local Democratic Party chairs in Kern, Kings and Tulare caution that Bains is in no way a shoo-in, especially since she has positioned herself as a political outsider who bucks party leadership. 

Cathleen Jorgensen, who chairs the Kings County Democrats, said she has not been contacted by Bains or her team, a “troubling” sign since Villegas has made himself widely available. Jorgensen said she wished the party could present a united front behind a single candidate from now through next November, rather than pit multiple contenders against each other in a primary. 

“I’m concerned that it might become negative,” said Jorgensen, who has been impressed with Villegas. “I really had hoped that maybe we would have just one candidate.”

Christian Romo, chair of the Kern County Democrats, warned that while health care might be the current hot political topic, much could change between now and June 2. Running as a single-issue candidate, as Bains plans to do, is a risky bet and will require that voters remember Valadao’s vote for the megabill. That could be challenging, especially since the most severe changes to Medi-Cal won’t happen until after November 2026. 

“If we don’t keep that momentum, if we don’t keep reminding people that you’re going to lose health insurance, you’re going to lose your food assistance, you’re going to lose your veterans’ benefits and services that we desperately depend on,” Romo said, “then I don’t see us winning.”

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