The survey, published by an outfit calling itself Median Strategies, claimed Los Angeles Mayor Karen Bass held a commanding double-digit lead over City Councilmember Nithya Raman in the race for mayor. The numbers seemed to defy political gravity given Bass’s sagging approval ratings and recent criticism over her administration’s handling of homelessness. The poll also asserted that Bass had scooped up support from most voters who had backed Republican upstart Spencer Pratt during the primary.

There was just one problem: none of it was real.

By Monday, Median Strategies had pulled its post and replaced its website with a notice admitting the numbers were invented as part of what it called a “short-term social experiment.” The disclaimer warned that the figures “should not be cited or treated as genuine polling data.” The same site had also published fabricated polling on governor’s races in Wisconsin and Nevada.

According to a report published Thursday by The Guardian, the site was the work of a 21-year-old recent college graduate who said the idea was sparked by a widely discussed polling miss in Michigan’s Senate race. The person told the outlet the goal was to test how easily fake numbers could infiltrate political reporting and public discourse.

Before the ruse was exposed, the bogus figures were picked up by the Los Angeles Times, which first reported on the deception, along with the California Post, several local television and radio outlets — and Bass’s own campaign, which cited the poll in a social media post that has since been deleted.

The episode has intensified concerns about the reliability of political polling at a moment when the public is already wrestling with misinformation and AI-generated content flooding online spaces.

The American Association for Public Opinion Research, a leading industry group, condemned the stunt as “a serious breach of ethics” that damages the credibility of legitimate survey research.

Bass campaign spokesperson Alex Stack said staff reviewed the polling memo before sharing it and concluded it appeared credible, in part because multiple news organizations had already reported on it. “Any bad faith attempts to influence elections should be investigated and prosecuted to the fullest extent of the law,” Stack said in a statement.

Questions remain about motive

It’s still unclear who exactly is behind Median Strategies or what their ultimate goal was — including whether the fabrication would have ever come to light without journalists digging into it. The group did not respond to questions submitted by CalMatters.

“This definitely isn’t a research experiment, right? It sounds like an excuse for very bad behavior,” said Mindy Romero, who directs the nonpartisan Center for Inclusive Democracy. “If we take them at their word, that this is some sort of social experiment, that’s not what reputable researchers engage in. We always have to think about the harm that we’re doing.”

Some observers suspect a financial motive may have been at play, particularly involving political betting platforms such as Kalshi and Polymarket. The theory mirrors classic stock market fraud schemes, in which bad actors artificially inflate the price of an asset before cashing out.

Data reviewed by the Associated Press showed a burst of trading activity on Polymarket in the minutes after Bass’s campaign shared the fake poll online, with thousands of trades logged from roughly 20 accounts within six minutes. On Kalshi, the odds of a Bass victory ticked up about two percentage points in the 15 minutes following the post.

Writing for The American Prospect, journalist David Dayen argued the incident proved a troubling point: that pump-and-dump tactics long used in financial markets can be just as easily applied to political prediction markets.

A warning for future campaigns

Jonathan Underland, a political strategist working on Democrat Xavier Becerra’s gubernatorial campaign, said the incident is a reminder that campaigns need to slow down and confirm a poll’s legitimacy before promoting it.

“I get the excitement of a poll that shows you in the lead,” Underland said. “Everything is an opportunity for your opponent to hit you. The last thing I want to do is promote a poll that’s not real.”

Baldassare, who has spent decades studying public opinion, said he’s long been uneasy about how much weight polling carries in shaping financial and political decisions — from prediction markets to which candidates attract major donor support. He worries this episode could inspire copycats eager to inject more noise and confusion into future elections.

Still, he pointed to one silver lining: the fake poll surfaced in August, months before most voters start paying close attention to a race, rather than in October when ballots are already in hand.

Baldassare said he hopes the incident pushes journalists and campaign staff to slow down and verify their sources before spreading poll results.

When in doubt, he said, “Call the pollster. Make sure I’m legitimate. You know — a real person.”

Original source: CalMatters

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