In a phone interview with The Hill, Trump said Wright was “totally wrong” in suggesting gas prices might not fall below $3 per gallon until next year.

Instead, Trump tied any meaningful drop in prices to the ongoing conflict involving Iran. “As soon as this ends,” he said, indicating he expects prices to ease once tensions subside.

Wright, speaking on CNN a day earlier, struck a more cautious tone. He said it’s possible prices could dip later this year, but acknowledged it may take until 2027 depending on how the situation develops, particularly with disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz — a key global shipping route for oil.

“Prices have likely peaked and should start to come down,” Wright said, adding that a resolution to the conflict would help bring broader energy costs down.

His outlook differs from Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, who said last week that gas prices could return to the $3 range as early as this summer.

Global oil markets have been on edge amid escalating tensions tied to Iran and shipping restrictions through the Strait of Hormuz. In the U.S., gas prices have climbed past $4 per gallon — levels not seen since the early months following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022. AAA reported the national average at $4 on Monday.

Oil prices also jumped after the U.S. seized an Iranian vessel near the Strait over the weekend. Brent crude rose to about $94 per barrel, while West Texas Intermediate hovered near $88.

At the same time, the U.S. has been enforcing a blockade targeting Iranian ports, further tightening supply. According to Reuters, Pakistan’s army chief, Gen. Asim Munir, raised concerns about the blockade during discussions with Trump, calling it a barrier to negotiations. Trump, however, disputed that account.

“He didn’t recommend anything on the blockade,” Trump said. “It’s very strong. They’re losing about $500 million a day. We control it — they don’t.”

Vice President JD Vance is expected to head a U.S. delegation to Islamabad for potential talks involving Pakistani and Iranian officials. Still, Iran’s Foreign Ministry said Monday that no final decision has been made on whether negotiations with the U.S. will move forward.

The post Trump Disputes Energy Chief, Says Gas Prices Could Drop Sooner Than Expected appeared first on The Hemet & San Jacinto Chronicle.

The latest bimonthly report, which tracks prices in western Riverside County as well as the cities of Ontario and San Bernardino, shows the region’s Consumer Price Index rose 0.8%. Officials pointed to a steep jump in gasoline prices as the primary factor behind the increase.

Gas prices surged roughly 30% between late February and the end of March, pushing the overall energy index up 15.4% during the same period. That spike alone accounted for most of the region’s inflation gains, underscoring how closely local costs remain tied to global energy markets.

Beyond fuel, modest increases were also recorded in other categories. Prices for general goods and services rose 2.2%, while recreation-related costs — including entertainment and theme park activities — climbed 3.2%.

There were, however, a few areas where consumers saw relief. Food prices, both at grocery stores and restaurants, dipped slightly across February and March, falling about 0.4%. Education-related expenses also declined, dropping 3.9%, according to the report.

On a broader scale, inflation trends in the Inland Empire largely mirrored what’s happening nationwide. The national Consumer Price Index rose 0.9% in March alone, again fueled by energy costs.

“The index for energy increased 10.9%, the largest monthly increase since September 2005,” the Bureau of Labor Statistics said in its report. “The gasoline index increased 21.2% over the month, the largest monthly increase since the series was first published in 1967.”

Looking at the longer-term picture, prices in the Inland Empire are up 3.1% compared to a year ago. Energy and healthcare costs have been among the biggest contributors to that increase, rising 13.4% and 5.9%, respectively.

Nationally, inflation stands at 3.3% over the same 12-month period.

Much of the recent pressure on energy prices can be traced back to geopolitical developments overseas. Escalating conflict involving Iran and disruptions in the Persian Gulf have rattled global oil markets. In particular, concerns over restricted access through the Strait of Hormuz — a key shipping route for roughly one-fifth of the world’s oil supply — have pushed prices higher.

Although a tentative ceasefire was announced earlier this week, oil markets remain volatile. U.S. benchmark crude is still trading just under $100 per barrel, reflecting ongoing uncertainty.

Economists also point to broader domestic factors contributing to inflation, including federal spending levels and monetary policy. The national debt currently stands at approximately $38.98 trillion, according to the Congressional Joint Economic Committee. Rising interest payments — now estimated at about $88 billion per month, based on recent reports — continue to add pressure to the overall economic outlook.

For Inland Empire residents, the immediate impact is clear: higher prices at the pump and across key sectors, even as some everyday expenses show slight signs of easing.

The post Inland Empire Inflation Rises as Gas Prices Surge Amid Global Tensions appeared first on The Hemet & San Jacinto Chronicle.

It used to cost her around $25 to fill up her Toyota Corolla. She’s spent closer to $40 since the Iran war began and pushed up the average U.S. price for a gallon of regular gasoline by $1. Sherman-Shafer, a retired dental office assistant who picks up Uber passengers five days a week, said she’s putting in extra hours to cover the difference.

“We don’t get reimbursed for gas. We rely on the generosity of the tip,” Sherman-Shafer said. Some passengers have tipped more to compensate for higher gas prices, but most don’t tip at all, she said.

Driving a car, van or truck is a big part of many Americans’ workdays. Nearly 27% of civilian workers cited driving as a physical demand of their jobs last year, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Millions of drivers use personal vehicles for their work, from delivery and ride-share providers like Sherman-Shafer to self-employed electricians, nannies, home health care aides and real estate agents.

As the war enters a fifth week and continues to disrupt global oil supplies. many of those workers are now scrambling to make ends meet. The national average price for gas reached $3.99 per gallon on Monday, up 34% from a month earlier, according to AAA.

“With everything going up, it’s impossible to save a dime,” Sherman-Shafer said.

Some companies compensate employees for using their own vehicles, including the cost of gas. In the U.S., the Internal Revenue Service sets a standard mileage rate every year that businesses and private contractors can use to calculate tax deductions. Alpine Maids, a housekeeping company based in Denver, pays cleaners the 2026 federal reimbursement rate of 72.5 cents per mile for the distance they drive to clients’ homes.

But with gas prices spiking, that money is not going as far, said Chris Willatt, a former geologist who now runs Alpine Maids.

“Our maids drive their own cars, so it’s kind of like their paycheck got smaller,” Willatt said. “They’re all upset.”

Willatt said he reduced how often maids must report to the office, from daily to once a week, and rejiggered cleaning assignments so employees aren’t driving as far between clients. If gas prices climb further, he said he might increase what he charges customers so he can pay workers more.

Molly Kenefick, the owner of Doggy Lama Pet Care Inc. in Oakland, California, said she recently raised her gas reimbursement rate to 80 cents per mile for 15 employees who use their own vehicles to pick up dogs and take them for hikes around the Bay Area. The rate increase will stay in place until gas prices in their area drop below $5 for at least a month, she said.

Kenefick said she planned to raise prices for the company’s services in May. But she doesn’t want to increase them too much because she’s worried she’ll lose clients. So Kenefick is also dipping into her savings to pay for gas.

“The economy is hard for people. Everybody’s under strain,” she said. “I can take some of the load and the company can take some of the load, provided this doesn’t go on too long.”

Ride-hailing and food delivery platforms that rely on gig workers don’t reimburse drivers for gas, but some are offering temporary incentives in response to rising gas prices. DoorDash, Uber, Lyft and Instacart are providing more than the usual cash back on gas purchases for drivers who use company-branded debit cards. DoorDash and Instacart are giving a weekly fuel payment to drivers who travel 125 miles or more making deliveries.

Sarah Noell, who spends about 20 hours a week making deliveries for DoorDash in Lynchburg, Virginia, said the measures help somewhat. But she said she’s noticed more customers declining to add tips to their orders as gas prices have increased.

Noell has started refusing any order that won’t average out to $1 per mile, including the $2.50 per order she gets from DoorDash. That cancels out many users who aren’t tipping or give only small tips.

“It takes nearly double the cost to fill my tank,” Noell said. “Ten dollars used to get me a decent amount. Now it only gets me 3 gallons.”

Owners of diesel-powered vehicles have seen even steeper fuel price increases since the war started on Feb. 28, affecting drivers around the world.

Drivers of diesel-powered “jeepneys” in the Philippines, went on strike for two days last week to protest their higher costs. In France, dozens of buses and trucks drove slowly on the Paris ring road Monday to demonstrate their concerns about rising diesel prices. Drivers and businesses want the French government to provide aid to mitigate the impact.

“The major difficulty right now is finding our balance on our business since we sold services with the vehicles at a certain price for diesel that was much cheaper. And we’re not going to ask customers to pay that difference,” Sarah Bahezre, manager of the bus transportation company Ulysse Cars, told The Associated Press.

Average U.S. diesel prices climbed 44% over the last month, according to AAA.

A few weeks ago, Rachel Hunter paid $3.62 a gallon to fill the single diesel truck used by Cactus Crew Junk Removal & Thrift Store, a Phoenix business she and her husband co-founded. The same fuel now costs $6.09 per gallon in Phoenix, according to AAA.

The truck carries all kinds of heavy cargo, from slabs of solid maple bowling lanes to loads of concrete paver tiles. So fuel costs quickly add up, Hunter said, particularly with a truck that only gets 12 or 13 miles to the gallon.

Hunter has started quoting prices that reflect the jump in prices. She worries she’s in a “vicious circle” that could hurt the business if oil prices remain high.

“We don’t want to get a bad name for being overpriced,” she says. “I’ll be able to explain it where people can understand, but it doesn’t mean they can afford it.”

The post Rising gasoline prices are a double blow for drivers who use their own vehicles for work appeared first on The Hemet & San Jacinto Chronicle.

Gasoline prices are climbing, and many people will find some of the most immediate economic pain at the pump.

But you don’t have to drive a car to be affected. Nearly all goods — including food — that are bought and sold must travel from where they’re produced. Those costs will climb with higher gasoline, diesel and jet fuel prices.

And the spike in oil prices will likely be a big factor for U.S. inflation. As the war continues, some experts say the price of, well, everything could be affected.

“The longer this lasts, the more significant the shock would be,” said Gregory Daco, chief economist at consulting firm EY-Parthenon.

Here’s how the growing cost of oil and gas could impact consumers as the war continues.

At the pump: Gas prices are likely to continue climbing

Gasoline, diesel and jet fuel are made from crude oil. As the cost of crude climbs, so do the prices of those widely used products, which keep equipment, cars, buses, delivery trucks and airplanes running.

Across the U.S., drivers were paying an average of $3.48 for a gallon of regular gasoline Monday, compared with $2.98 before the war started. Prices have increased about 17% since the U.S. and Israel attacked Iran.

Prices vary across states. In California, drivers were paying $5.20, up 12% from a week ago. Some of California’s refineries have shut down in recent years, so the massive state relies on imports of gasoline and other refined products from Asia.

By contrast, the average price in Louisiana, which has oil production and refineries, was $3.04.

The spike in oil prices is likely to further push up gasoline prices, and could be felt more significantly in Asia and Europe, which are more dependent on Middle Eastern oil and gas than the United States.

The cost of shipping and goods increases alongside the price of diesel

The price of diesel — which powers 18-wheeler trucks — climbed Monday, too: to $4.65 a gallon in the U.S., a 23% jump since the war started.

“Can’t underscore what a massive jolt this is to the logistics, trucking, (agriculture) sectors,” Patrick De Haan, a petroleum analyst at GasBuddy, wrote on X Monday.

The effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz, the waterway that carries a fifth of the world’s crude oil and liquified natural gas, already has caused problems for the shipping industry. Quickly rising oil and gas prices will add to the burden.

Fuel prices account for 50% to 60% of the total operating cost of shipping goods by ship, according to Patrick Penfield, professor of supply chain practice at Syracuse University, so higher fuel prices have a huge effect on the industry.

“When fuel prices start to go up, everything starts to slow down,” Penfield said. “So your ships slow down, your trucks slow down. People are less apt to ship things via air. And it really kind of causes a drag on the economy when fuel price go up.”

Fuel surcharges will also rise — as shipping companies aim to pass along higher costs to their customers, ultimately making goods more expensive.

Home energy bills will probably rise, and items made from plastic could cost more

Heating your home and cooking food with natural gas are also likely to cost more as the war grinds on.

Europe’s benchmark natural gas rose 75% since the war began, according to data from the Intercontinental Exchange.

That could also affect the cost of products made from natural gas, such as petrochemical feedstock. It’s used to make plastic and rubber, as well as nitrogen fertilizer.

Eventually, groceries might be more expensive, too

The spike in oil prices likely won’t be felt immediately at U.S. grocery stores, said David Ortega, a professor of food economics and policy at Michigan State University. But if oil prices remain high for a month or more, he said, “we’re in different territory.”

Higher oil prices impact the agricultural sector in two ways, Ortega said. They raise the cost of inputs such as fuel for farm equipment and the fertilizer, which is derived from natural gas. They also raise demand for soybean oil, palm oil and other vegetable oils that can be used as replacements for petroleum-based fuel.

But Ortega said on-farm costs are only a small part of what consumers pay at the supermarket. A larger share comes from the cost of processing and transporting food, which uses a lot of energy.

“Food gets to the grocery store on diesel, whether it’s on a truck or on a boat,” Ortega said.

If oil prices remain elevated, fresh foods that must be transported quickly could see price hikes more quickly than packaged foods, which are less perishable, Ortega said.

If inflation rises, everything gets more expensive

With U.S. oil prices increasing by roughly 42% from their pre-war levels, to roughly $95 a barrel from about $67 before the conflict, that could push up inflation in the United States from 2.4% in January to 3% or higher in the coming months, according to a rough estimate by economists at JPMorgan.

Economist Daco, of EY-Parthenon, estimated that the bump in gas prices could push monthly inflation to as high as 1% in March, which would be the highest monthly increase in four years. Yearly inflation would near 3% in that case.

“That’s a significant shock in and of itself,” Daco said.

Some experts say consumer spending will decrease

Mark Mathews, chief economist and executive director of research at the National Retail Federation, said higher gas prices would likely affect consumer spending, particularly lower-income shoppers.

U.S. households pay on average $2,500 a year, or nearly $50 a week, to fill up their tank, he said. If consumers are paying, say, $10 more per week, he said, their budgets are certainly affected.

“How do they offset that?” he said. “Going out to a movie theater or going to a theme park or going out to eat — all those areas would be … more likely see cuts.”

Some see hope that prices stay down — for now

Mathews expects that retailers will absorb higher transportation costs for a while — as many did with higher tariff s — before they increase prices.

Italian Finance Minister Giancarlo Giorgetti warned against passing along higher energy costs to consumers, recalling the lessons learned after Russia invaded Ukraine.

“We must act immediately to stop energy prices from spreading to all consumer goods, as happened in 2022,” he told a Monday G7 meeting in Brussels, according to a statement from his office.

Ed Anderson, a professor of supply chain and operations management for the McCombs School of Business at the University of Texas, said shippers won’t immediately pass on costs to customers.

“If the conflict is only in the short run, companies will eat it,” he said.

The post How the Iran war and surging oil prices are affecting consumers at the gas pump and beyond appeared first on The Hemet & San Jacinto Chronicle.

In Lake Elsinore and Wildomar, you can find the cheapest gas near you at your membership warehouse, Costco. That location was selling regular, unleaded gas at $3.85 per gallon in Lake Elsinore, according to GasBuddy.com. In Wildomar, the ARCO station is selling at cash prices of around $4.29 per gallon this week.

The average price is six-tenths of a cent more than one week ago, but 19.2 cents less than one month ago and 25.3 cents less than one year ago, according to figures from AAA and the Oil Price Information Service. Fuel costs have dropped $1.91 since rising to a record $6.37 on Oct. 5, 2022.

In the Golden State, drivers already pay more for gasoline than in any other state. Nationwide, the current average for a gallon of regular gas is $3.22, according to the latest report from AAA. In California, the current average is $4.66.

The national average price rose two-tenths of a cent to $3.23. It is 3.9 cents more than one week ago and 4.5 cents more than one month ago, but 24.2 cents less than one year ago. It has dropped $1.79 since reaching a record high of $5.016 on June 14, 2022.

The post Gas Prices Near You In Lake Elsinore Are Falling In Advance Of Expected Summer Rise appeared first on The Hemet & San Jacinto Chronicle.

The rest of the state, however, is being destroyed by rampant crime, sweeping homelessness and unauthorized immigrants — and it’s spurring a mass exodus, Trump said at a press conference today.

“The state of California is a mess,” said Trump. 

“We cannot allow Comrade Kamala Harris and the communist left to do to America what they did to California,” said the former president, who had held a fundraiser in Los Angeles on Thursday night and plans one later today in the Bay Area community of Woodside to cash in on California’s lucrative trove of donors.

Attacking California is something Trump didn’t even do once in his first — and he says only — presidential debate with Vice President Kamala Harris Tuesday night in Philadelphia. Political experts perceived it as a missed opportunity: After all, his allies have for decades decried California as too liberal for the rest of the nation — partly why there has never been a California Democrat elected president. 

The jury is still out on how much Harris’ California ties could hurt her chance among undecided voters. For most Michigan and Arizona voters who spoke to CalMatters last month, Harris’ record in the White House mattered more than her California brand. 

Trump, who repeatedly mispronounced Harris’s first name, also blamed Harris for federal economic and border policies and insisted he outperformed her during the debate.

The Harris campaign’s rapid response team posted about some of Trump’s statements, but has not directly responded to what he said about her record or her home state. 

How much of the many, many things Trump said about California and Harris’ record is accurate? Here’s our fact check on some notable claims:

State of the state

What Trump said:
“California has the highest inflation, highest taxes, the highest gas prices, the most illegal aliens, the most regulations, the most expensive utilities, and it ranks as the third worst state to start a business.”

Facts:

• Inflation: Inflation rates fluctuate month to month. Florida had the highest inflation at 4% as of March, while California had the seventh highest, at 3.6%, according to an analysis of the Bureau of Labor Statistics data by Moody’s Analytics. Even according to U.S. Senate Republicans’ own inflation tracker, as of August, California ranked 5th for increased monthly inflation costs since January 2021 and had a cumulative inflation rate lower than Florida and other states in the West region.
• Taxes: California does have the highest state sales tax at 7.25%, but ranks 8th in total state and local sales tax rates this year, according to the Tax Foundation. California’s property tax rate is at 0.75%, the 34th highest of all 50 states. The state also has a progressive income tax rate while other states have a flat rate for all. 
• Gas prices: It is true. California does have the highest gas price of all states, at $4.76 a gallon as of today, according to the AAA. The national average is $3.23. 
• Unauthorized immigrants: California is estimated to have the largest population of undocumented immigrants, at 1.8 million, based on a Pew Research Center estimate of 2022 Census figures. But California is also the only state where that population decreased from 2019 to 2022, while the populations in Republican-led Florida and Texas grew the most. 
• Utility rates: As of June, Hawaii — not California — had the highest electricity rates, averaging 42.4 cents per kilowatt hour for residential customers, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration. In California, residential customers paid an average of 33.0 cents per kilowatt hour. A Forbes analysis of monthly utility bills by state ranked Alaska the most expensive, followed by Hawaii, Connecticut, West Virginia and Georgia.
• Worst state to start a business: It depends which ranking you look at, but according to Forbes, California is the 37th best state to start a business this year.   

Crime in California

What Trump said: Trump blamed the “destruction” of San Francisco on Gov. Gavin Newsom and Harris. He said murders rose “significantly” and car thefts “went through the roof” while Harris was state attorney general. He argued that Harris was lenient in prosecuting several cases, that she had endorsed defunding the police and that “the police don’t endorse her.”

Facts:

• Crime stats: When Harris was California attorney general between 2011 and 2017, homicide rates fluctuated, with an average of 1,819 homicides per 100,000 people each year, according to the state Department of Justice. Vehicle thefts ebbed and flowed, averaging 164,000 per 100,000 people. Both rates were far lower than during the 1990s.
• Leniency: Despite claims she’s soft on crime, Harris has a mixed record. As a local prosecutor, Harris did not pursue the death penalty against a cop killer — a case Trump used during the press conference to justify his claim. But years later, Harris prosecuted a woman with mental illness for assaulting police officers. As California’s attorney general, Harris defended the state’s death penalty even though she personally opposed it. Harris remained neutral on various ballot measures about reducing penalties for low-level offenses and allowing earlier release for more offenders.
• Defund the police: It is true that Harris expressed support for redirecting some money and “reimagining” public safety during her 2020 presidential campaign, weeks after George Floyd was murdered by a police officer in Minneapolis, sparking waves of protests against law enforcement. “This whole movement is about rightly saying, we need to take a look at these budgets and figure out whether it reflects the right priorities,” she said at the time. After President Joe Biden tapped her as his running mate, however, she denounced the “defund” movement.
• Police endorsements: More than 100 law enforcement officials — including sheriffs, former and current police chiefs and FBI agents — endorsed Harris last week.

Immigration and the border

What Trump said: He lambasted Harris for supporting “sanctuary cities” for undocumented immigrants while she was San Francisco’s district attorney, claiming she shielded “illegal aliens” who committed murders and refused to deport them. 

Facts: 

• Sanctuary city policy: The San Francisco city ordinance — which prevented officials from handing over unauthorized migrants to Immigration and Customs Enforcement even if they committed a felony — dates to 1985. It was originally aimed at protecting asylum seekers from El Salvador and Guatemala, but was extended in 1989 to cover all immigrants. Harris — who was district attorney from 2004 to 2011 — supported changing the policy to report undocumented immigrants arrested on suspicion of a felony in 2008. 
• Prosecuting unauthorized immigrants: Trump said Harris offered sanctuary in 2008 to Edwin Ramos, a Salvadoran migrant who was charged with three counts of murder and who had prior convictions for assault and attempted robbery. Similarly, Trump mentioned the case of Rony Aguilera, a Honduran immigrant who murdered a 14-year-old boy in 2008. It is true city officials did not turn him over to federal agents at the time — under the sanctuary city policy that Harris helped change that year. Ramos was sentenced to life in prison in 2014, and Aguilera was sentenced to 40 years to life in prison in 2013.

Homelessness  

What Trump said: “After Kamala Harris and Gavin Newscum took charge of San Francisco, homelessness increased by over 200%.” 

Facts: Homelessness has grown in California, but not by that much. From 2007 to 2023, the number of people experiencing homelessness grew by 30.5%, according to a report to Congress. In San Francisco, the point-in-time count of homeless people this year reached the lowest level since 2015, according to the city. Nearly 186,000 Californians live on the streets or homeless shelters, up 8% from 2022, according to a new CalMatters analysis. As of last year, California accounted for nearly 30% of the nation’s homeless population and roughly half of the unsheltered population.

California exodus

What Trump said: He claimed the state has the most number of people leaving. 

Facts: It is true that California shed the most people last year — 75,423, according to the Census Bureau. But it’s not just a California problem: New York lost the most population between 2020 and 2022, losing 2.6% of its population, according to Census data. The reasons for California’s shrinking population are complicated: Some died, some moved to other states due to the high cost of living, and some left the country altogether. 

The post ‘Mess’ and ‘destruction’: Fact-checking Trump’s attacks on California and Kamala Harris appeared first on The Hemet & San Jacinto Chronicle.

WASHINGTON (AP) — A sharp increase in gas prices likely pushed inflation higher in August compared with a year ago, yet a measure excluding energy and food costs is expected to fall for the fifth straight month, suggesting that the Federal Reserve’s interest rate hikes are still bringing down prices for many goods and services.

The consumer price index is projected to have increased 3.6% last month from a year earlier, according to economists’ forecasts compiled by data provider FactSet. The increase would be up from 3.2% in July, though still far below the peak of 9.1% in June 2022.

Yet core prices, which exclude food and energy and are monitored closely by the Federal Reserve, are likely to cool to 4.3% in August from a year ago, down from a 4.7% annual pace in July. The Fed follows core prices because they can provide a better read on where inflation is headed.

If the forecasts are accurate, such data will likely fuel optimism that inflation is coming under control, despite the rise in gas prices, and raise the odds the Fed will skip an interest rate hike at its meeting next week. While more expensive gas could elevate inflation this month as well, most economists forecast that inflation will decline through the end of the year as the cost of new and used cars, rents, and furniture decline.

“The longer-run trend is coming down,” said Alan Detmeister, an economist at UBS and former staff economist at the Fed. “There is month-to-month noise … But we’re on the right track.”

Cooling inflation has also bolstered hopes that the economy could actually experience a rare “soft landing,” in which growth and hiring slow enough to bring down price growth but not so much as to result in a deep recession.

On a monthly basis, consumer prices likely jumped 0.6% in August, the biggest increase in more than a year. Gas prices spiked about 11% in August, economists estimate, though they have since levelled off: According to AAA, the average nationwide price at the pump was $3.84 on Tuesday, little changed from a month ago.

Economists forecast that air fares likely also rose in August from July. But they expect used cars, which soared in price during the pandemic and its aftermath, will fall as much as 3% in August from July, and new cars could also decline or at least stay unchanged. Apartment rental costs are expected to keep rising at about a 0.4% monthly pace, but that is half the rate of a year ago and could fall further later this year.

Grocery prices are increasing more slowly after skyrocketing in the wake of supply disruptions brought on by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine last year. The increase has strained many households’ budgets. Even with more modest increases each month, grocery costs are still 3.6% higher than a year ago.

Federal Reserve officials are becoming more open to the idea that inflation is coming under control, though chair Jerome Powell said last month it was still “too high.”

But in his high-profile speech at Jackson Hole, Powell said that the Fed would proceed “carefully” with any further rate hikes, which many economists saw as an opening for the Fed to skip a rate increase at its September 19-20 meeting.

The Fed has lifted its benchmark interest rate 11 times in the past 12 meetings to about 5.4%, the highest level in 22 years. It increased the rate a quarter-point in July after leaving it unchanged in June.

Lorie Logan, president of the Federal Reserve’s Dallas branch, said last week that “another skip could be appropriate” at its next meeting, “but skipping does not imply stopping.”

Investors see only a 7% chance of a rate hike next week, according to CME’s FedWatch. But they have priced in a 38% change for an increase at the Fed’s subsequent meeting in November.

The European Central Bank is also contemplating lifting its key interest rate at its next meeting Thursday, though officials could choose to also skip an increase. The European economy is nearing recession as it struggles with high inflation and rising borrowing costs.

The 20 countries that use the euro currency are expected to grow just 0.8% this year, according to a gloomy forecast issued Monday by the European Commission, the European Union’s executive arm. Germany’s economy, the EU’s largest, is projected to shrink 0.4%. Inflation in the EU is higher than in the U.S. — it was 5.3% in July — though that is half of the 10.6% peak reached in October.

Find your latest news here at the Hemet & San Jacinto Chronicle

The post Higher gas prices likely pushed up inflation in August, though other costs probably slowed appeared first on The Hemet & San Jacinto Chronicle.

FRANKFURT, Germany (AP) — Saudi Arabia will reduce how much oil it sends to the global economy, taking a unilateral step to prop up the sagging price of crude after two previous cuts to supply by major producing countries in the OPEC+ alliance failed to push oil higher.

The Saudi cut of 1 million barrels per day, to start in July, comes as the other OPEC+ producers agreed in a meeting in Vienna to extend earlier production cuts through next year.

Calling the reduction a “lollipop,” Saudi Energy Minister Abdulaziz bin Salman said at a news conference that “we wanted to ice the cake.” He said the cut could be extended and that the group “will do whatever is necessary to bring stability to this market.”

The new cut would likely push up oil prices in the short term, but the impact after that would depend on whether Saudi Arabia decides to extend it, said Jorge Leon, senior vice president of oil markets research at Rystad Energy.

The move provides “a price floor because the Saudis can play with the voluntary cut as much as they like,” he said.

The slump in oil prices has helped U.S. drivers fill their tanks more cheaply and gave consumers worldwide some relief from inflation.

“Gas is not going to become cheaper,” Leon said. ”If anything, it will become marginally more expensive.”

That the Saudis felt another cut was necessary underlines the uncertain outlook for demand for fuel in the months ahead. There are concerns about economic weakness in the U.S. and Europe, while China’s rebound from COVID-19 restrictions has been less robust than many had hoped.

Saudi Arabia, the dominant producer in the OPEC oil cartel, was one of several members that agreed on a surprise cut of 1.6 million barrels per day in April. The kingdom’s share was 500,000. That followed OPEC+ announcing in October that it would slash 2 million barrels per day, angering U.S. President Joe Biden by threatening higher gasoline prices a month before the midterm elections.

All told, OPEC+ has now dropped production on paper by 4.6 million barrels a day. But some countries can’t produce their quotas, so the actual reduction is around 3.5 million barrels per day, or over 3% of global supply.

The previous cuts gave little lasting boost to oil prices. International benchmark Brent crude climbed as high as $87 per barrel but has given up its post-cut gains and been loitering below $75 per barrel in recent days. U.S. crude has recently dipped below $70.

That has helped U.S. drivers kicking off the summer travel season, with prices at the pump averaging $3.55, down $1.02 from a year ago, according to auto club AAA. Falling energy prices also helped inflation in the 20 European countries that use the euro drop to the lowest level since before Russia invaded Ukraine.

The Saudis need sustained high oil revenue to fund ambitious development projects aimed at diversifying the country’s economy.

The International Monetary Fund estimates the kingdom needs $80.90 per barrel to meet its envisioned spending commitments, which include a planned $500 billion futuristic desert city project called Neom.

The U.S. recently replenished its Strategic Petroleum Reserve — after Biden announced the largest release from the national reserve in American history last year — in an indicator that U.S. officials may be less worried about OPEC cuts than in months past.

While oil producers like Saudi Arabia need revenue to fund their state budgets, they also have to take into account the impact of higher prices on oil-consuming countries.

Oil prices that go too high can fuel inflation, sapping consumer purchasing power and pushing central banks like the U.S. Federal Reserve toward further interest rate hikes that can slow economic growth.

The Saudi production cut and any increase to oil prices could add to the profits that are helping Russia pay for its war against Ukraine. Russia has found new oil customers in India, China and Turkey amid Western sanctions designed to limit Moscow’s crucial energy income.

However, higher crude prices risk complicating trade by the world’s No. 3 oil producer if they exceed the $60-per-barrel price cap imposed by the Group of Seven major democracies.

Russia has found ways to evade the price cap through “dark fleet” tankers, which tamper with location data or transfer oil from ship to ship to disguise its origin. But those efforts add costs.

Under the OPEC+ deal, Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak said Moscow will extend its voluntary cut of 500,000 barrels a day through next year, according to Russian state news agency Tass.

But Russia might not be following through on its promises. Moscow’s total exports of oil and refined products such as diesel fuel rose in April to a post-invasion high of 8.3 million barrels per day, the International Energy Agency said in its April oil market report.

___

AP reporter Fatima Hussein contributed from Washington.

Find your latest news here at the Hemet & San Jacinto Chronicle

The post Saudi Arabia is slashing oil supply. It could mean higher gas prices for US drivers appeared first on The Hemet & San Jacinto Chronicle.

As California lawmakers advance a bill that could ultimately punish oil companies for excessive profits, the state’s attorney general says that the legislative action will help hold oil companies accountable.

Last year, Gov. Gavin Newsom convened a special session of the Legislature and tasked lawmakers with taking action to protect consumers after the state saw gas prices skyrocket over the summer.

While the original plan of taxing oil companies did not advance in the Legislature, lawmakers and the governor settled on a bill that would let a state commission determine whether to impose penalties on oil companies.

“We experienced over the last year gas prices bordering on $7, almost $3 more than the national average,” Attorney General Rob Bonta said in an interview with Inside California Politics. “And we learned that $200 billion in profit went to oil companies and gas companies during that time.”

The bill, SB X1-2, authored by Senator Nancy Skinner, would authorize the California Energy Commission to set a “maximum gross gasoline refining margin” and to set penalties for exceeding it.

The bill also requires oil refiners to include more information in already-existing required reports they provide to the commission.

“This is…to make sure that we are holding oil companies accountable, that there is oversight, that there is transparency,” Bonta said. “[This is to make sure] that they are reporting to a regulator…information that exists but information that is not being shared that a regulator should know and understand to protect Californians.”

The bill passed the California Senate 30-8 on Thursday and the Assembly is expected to vote on it in the coming days.

Find your latest news here at the Hemet & San Jacinto Chronicle

The post California attorney general supports bill that would allow penalties against oil companies for high gas prices appeared first on The Hemet & San Jacinto Chronicle.

Gov. Gavin Newsom took action Feb. 6 urging the federal government to investigate the recent price spike affecting the Western U.S. and highlighted the state’s action to provide relief to Californians.

In a letter to the federal agency responsible for regulating wholesale natural gas, the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission or FERC, the Governor requested that the agency “immediately focus its investigatory resources on assessing whether market manipulation, anticompetitive behavior, or other anomalous activities are driving these ongoing elevated prices in the western gas markets.”

Additionally, millions of Californians will soon see relief from high utility bills – with credits of $90 to $120 showing up on gas and electric bills as soon as next month.

On Thursday, the California Public Utilities Commission or CPUC voted to accelerate the California Climate Credit to help California families with high gas bills.

The CPUC and the California Energy Commission Feb. 7 will host an en banc hearing to examine the causes and impacts of the recent spike in natural gas prices.

Find your latest news here at the Hemet & San Jacinto Chronicle

The post Gov. Newsom Calls for Federal Investigation of High Natural Gas Prices As California Provides Relief appeared first on The Hemet & San Jacinto Chronicle.