The mid-decade redistricting plan, approved last year by the Legislature and then by voters through Proposition 50, was designed to make five Republican-held congressional seats more winnable for Democrats. The move came as Texas Republicans, encouraged by President Donald Trump, pursued their own redistricting effort aimed at adding five GOP seats in the U.S. House.

With Republicans holding only a narrow majority in the House, both parties have treated redistricting as a high-stakes fight over control of Congress. Democrats are hoping that Trump’s unpopularity, combined with the historical tendency for a president’s party to lose seats in midterm elections, will help them retake the chamber.

For Newsom, the California plan offered several political advantages. It allowed him to cast the state’s redistricting effort as a direct response to Trump and Texas Republicans, gave Democrats a chance to gain ground in the House and strengthened Newsom’s national profile as he continues to be discussed as a possible 2028 presidential contender. California voters backed the measure by nearly a 2-to-1 margin in a special election.

This month’s primary results showed how much the new lines may matter, though they also made clear that Democrats are not guaranteed to win all five targeted seats.

At this point, Democrats appear likely to pick up at least some of the districts Proposition 50 was intended to shift. But Republicans remain competitive in several races, including one in the Central Valley and another that reaches into Riverside County.

Rep. David Valadao, a Republican from the San Joaquin Valley, may have received a boost from the primary outcome in the newly drawn 22nd District. Progressive Randy Villegas defeated moderate Democrat Jasmeet Bains, setting up a November race in a district where Democrats hold an 18-percentage-point voter registration advantage.

That advantage is significant, but the district’s Democratic electorate is more moderate than in many coastal areas of California. Villegas has been endorsed by U.S. Sen. Bernie Sanders, a democratic socialist, and Republicans are expected to argue that his politics are too far left for Central Valley voters. That dynamic could give Valadao a path to holding on in a district designed to favor Democrats.

Another closely watched contest is in the 6th District, which includes suburban communities around Sacramento. Rep. Kevin Kiley, who dropped his Republican party label, advanced from the primary and will face Democrat Richard Pan, a former state legislator, in November. Democrats hold a voter registration advantage of less than 9 percentage points there, leaving Kiley with a realistic chance in the general election.

Southern California voters will be watching the 48th District, newly redrawn to include parts of San Diego and Riverside counties. Rep. Darrell Issa, a Republican, is retiring, opening the seat for a competitive race. Republican Jim Desmond, a San Diego County supervisor, will face Democrat Marni von Wilpert, a member of the San Diego City Council.

The district has only a narrow Democratic registration edge, making it one of the more uncertain contests created by the new map. For Inland Empire voters in the Riverside County portion of the district, the race could become one of the region’s most closely followed congressional contests in November.

The range of possible outcomes remains wide. Democrats could gain all five seats targeted by Proposition 50, or they could end up with as few as two. Whether California’s redistricting effort proves decisive in the national fight for the House will depend heavily on what happens in other states.

California and Texas were not alone in reopening the redistricting battle. Their competing efforts prompted similar moves in a number of Republican- and Democratic-controlled states. Those efforts intensified after the U.S. Supreme Court ruled in April that a long-standing interpretation of the Voting Rights Act as it applies to redistricting could no longer stand.

In a case originating in Louisiana, the court held that deliberately drawing districts for specific racial or ethnic communities amounted to unconstitutional racial gerrymandering. Soon after, Louisiana lawmakers eliminated one of the state’s two districts represented by Black Democrats and redrew it to favor Republicans.

Other Republican-led states moved in similar directions, while some Democratic-led states tried to follow California’s example. Virginia was one of the most visible attempts, but that state’s Supreme Court struck down a redistricting ballot measure, and the U.S. Supreme Court declined to step in.

Nationally, Republicans appear to be gaining more from the current round of redistricting fights, though the final balance is still unclear. An effort to redraw Alabama’s congressional districts remains unresolved. If it succeeds, Republicans could gain as many as 10 seats nationwide, according to a CNN analysis.

In California, however, one political beneficiary is already apparent. Newsom’s redistricting campaign, framed as a counteroffensive against Trump and Republican mapmaking in Texas, has strengthened his standing among Democrats nationally. Even if the party falls short of winning all five targeted seats in November, the campaign has helped position him as one of the more prominent potential contenders for the White House in 2028.

Original source: CalMatters

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Under California’s top-two primary system, the two candidates who receive the most votes advance to the general election, regardless of party. That format is especially important this year as Democrats seek to regain control of Congress and as Republicans have benefited nationally from a series of redistricting-related court decisions.

Democrats are entering the primary with optimism in California after voters approved Proposition 50, which redrew congressional boundaries and sharply reduced the number of competitive districts statewide. If Democrats win the House, they would gain the power to block President Donald Trump’s legislative priorities, scrutinize cabinet officials and pursue investigations into his administration.

Despite the broader national stakes, only two California districts are considered truly competitive: one in the San Joaquin Valley and one in San Diego County. Several other closely watched contests involve Democrats challenging fellow Democrats, often with generational and ideological divides at the center of the campaigns.

The highest-profile race is in the 22nd Congressional District, anchored by Bakersfield and the San Joaquin Valley. Republican Rep. David Valadao, considered one of the most vulnerable GOP incumbents in the country, is seeking reelection. His lone defeat came in 2018 during Trump’s first term. As the only Republican in the race, Valadao is widely expected to secure a spot in the November runoff.

The more uncertain question is which Democrat will face him. Assemblymember Jasmeet Bains, a physician with extensive experience in hospitals and clinics that depend on Medi-Cal funding, is running as a pragmatic Democrat willing to break with her party. She is competing against Randy Villegas, a college professor and school board trustee who is campaigning as a progressive and has support from the Working Families Party, the Congressional Progressive Caucus and Sen. Bernie Sanders.

The contest reflects a broader Democratic debate over how to win back voters who drifted away in 2024. Bains has backing from national Democrats and several current members of Congress, while Villegas is appealing to voters with a more progressive, economically populist message.

In San Diego County’s 48th Congressional District, Democrats are competing for the chance to run against Republican Jim Desmond, a San Diego County supervisor who has been endorsed by retiring Rep. Darrell Issa.

Two Democrats have separated themselves from the field: San Diego City Councilmember Marni von Wilpert and Ammar Campa-Najjar, a former Labor Department aide in the Obama administration who previously lost two races to Issa. Brandon Riker, a Palm Springs businessman who shifted districts after Proposition 50, is also running.

The Democratic primary has grown increasingly sharp. Von Wilpert accused Campa-Najjar of being anti-LGBTQ after he questioned whether she could appeal to voters beyond gay-friendly Palm Springs. Campa-Najjar, in turn, accused von Wilpert of racism for raising questions about his name changes and residency.

Elsewhere in California, several races are testing the staying power of longtime Democratic incumbents as younger candidates argue the party needs new leadership.

In San Francisco’s 11th Congressional District, the race to succeed former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi has developed into a competition for second place. State Sen. Scott Wiener leads by double digits in public polling and is expected to advance to November. San Francisco Supervisor Connie Chan, who received Pelosi’s endorsement two weeks before election day, and billionaire tech entrepreneur Saikat Chakrabarti are battling for the other runoff spot.

In Sacramento’s 7th Congressional District, Democratic Rep. Doris Matsui is facing the most serious challenge of her 20-year congressional career. Her opponent, Sacramento City Councilmember Mai Vang, is a progressive candidate nearly half Matsui’s age and is campaigning on a message of generational change.

The reshaped 6th Congressional District in the Sacramento suburbs has also drawn attention. Democratic Rep. Ami Bera left that district to run in the newly configured 3rd District. Rep. Kevin Kiley, the incumbent in the 3rd, later left the Republican Party and entered the 6th District race as an independent.

A Democratic-sponsored poll showed Kiley leading the field, with former state Sen. Dr. Richard Pan ahead of the other Democratic candidates. Other Democrats running include Sacramento County District Attorney Thien Ho, Planned Parenthood public affairs executive Lauren Babb-Tomlinson and West Sacramento Mayor Martha Guerrero.

In Wine Country’s 4th Congressional District, Democratic Rep. Mike Thompson, 75, is seeking a 15th term while facing a challenge from 36-year-old Eric Jones, a former venture capitalist. Jones is focusing his campaign on affordability, including a proposed $10,000 middle-class tax credit and expanded access to zero-down mortgages.

Thompson is emphasizing his seniority, his work opposing the Trump administration and his record of securing federal funding for local projects. He serves as a senior member of the House Ways and Means Committee, which oversees tax policy. Two Republican candidates, John MacKenzie and Ray Rihele, have been heavily outspent and are not expected to advance.

In Los Angeles County’s 32nd Congressional District, Democratic Rep. Brad Sherman, 71, is seeking another term after nearly three decades representing some of the region’s affluent northwestern suburbs. His leading challenger, 42-year-old Jake Levine, argues Sherman has grown disconnected from the district.

Levine, a former climate adviser to Presidents Barack Obama and Joe Biden, is running on a progressive platform that includes universal child care, a federal renters’ tax credit and tuition-free college.

Both Sherman and Levine are expected to move on to the November election.

Original source: CalMatters

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