A recent statewide survey shows five leading candidates separated by only a few percentage points. Former Rep. Katie Porter, Rep. Eric Swalwell and businessman Tom Steyer are currently among the most visible Democratic contenders. On the Republican side, commentator Steve Hilton and Riverside County Sheriff Chad Bianco are polling near the top.

Poll analysts say voter anxiety over housing costs, inflation and overall affordability is shaping the race. A strong majority of likely voters identified cost-of-living issues as a top concern when choosing a candidate, with younger voters especially focused on economic pressures.

Support levels among the top candidates remain tightly clustered. Hilton and Porter are polling in the low-to-mid teens, with Bianco, Swalwell and Steyer close behind. No other candidate has broken into double digits, and roughly one in 10 voters remains undecided.

Under California’s top-two primary system, the two highest vote-getters in June advance to November, regardless of party affiliation. With multiple prominent Democrats in the race, some party observers have expressed concern about vote-splitting potentially benefiting Republican candidates. California has not elected a Republican to statewide office in nearly two decades.

Political observers note that few candidates in the race have broad statewide name recognition. Porter and Swalwell have built visibility through media appearances, while Steyer has invested heavily in television advertising. Analysts suggest that in a state where one party dominates statewide elections, voter familiarity with candidates can be limited until late in the campaign.

San José Mayor Matt Mahan, who entered the race earlier this year, is also drawing attention. Though currently polling in the single digits, he has secured significant financial backing from business and technology leaders. His campaign and supporting committees have launched statewide advertising efforts aimed at increasing name recognition.

Mahan has recently focused on wildfire recovery and rebuilding efforts in Southern California, arguing for stronger coordination between state and federal officials.

Beyond the governor’s race, voters will also weigh in on congressional contests that could influence control of the U.S. House of Representatives. A recent redistricting effort reshaped the boundaries of California’s 52 congressional districts following voter approval of a ballot measure last year.

The survey also found strong support among likely voters for Democratic congressional candidates and majority backing for a proposed tax targeting billionaire assets to fund healthcare programs.

With several months remaining before the primary, the governor’s race remains competitive and unpredictable. Analysts expect campaign spending, debates and voter turnout to play decisive roles as candidates work to distinguish themselves in a crowded field.

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Porter was the clear front-runner over the summer, but by late October she dropped behind Riverside County Sheriff Chad Bianco, a Republican, according to a poll released Friday by the UC Berkeley Institute of Governmental Studies and co-sponsored by The Times.

Still, nearly half of the registered voters surveyed remain undecided, evidence that few Californians are paying attention to a race that remains wide open and was eclipsed in recent months by the costly and successful congressional redistricting battle that became a referendum on President Trump. Porter remains the most favored Democratic candidate, which is significant in a state that has not elected a Republican governor since 2006.

“She’s the leading Democrat among the various ones that are in there right now,” said Mark DiCamillo, director of the poll. “But it’s because nobody really on the Democratic side has really jumped out of the pack. It’s kind of a political vacuum at the moment.”

The governor’s race was frozen in stasis for most of the year, first as Californians waited for former Vice President Kamala Harris to decide whether she was going to jump into the race. It wasn’t until late July that Harris announced, no, she was not running. Then, weeks later, Californians became captivated by a special election to reconfigure the state’s congressional districts — which set off a furious, expensive and high-stakes political battle that could help decide which party controls the U.S. House of Representatives.

Now that the special election is over, gubernatorial candidates can “rev up the public to pay attention,” DiCamillo said.

“It’s the time for someone to break through,” he said.

But it won’t be U.S. Sen. Alex Padilla. The senator would have been the top Democrat in the race, but not a heavy favorite, if he decided to jump in, the poll found. Voters gave him the highest favorability rating among all current and potential contenders in the governor’s race. After months of speculation, however, Padilla on Tuesday announced he would forgo a run for governor.

The new poll found that Bianco was supported by 13% of voters in the state, followed by Porter at 11%. The Berkeley poll in August showed that Porter led all candidates with 17% support, with Bianco in second place at 10%.

A Bianco representative said his lead in the polls was evidence that his campaign was resonating with voters.

“It is abundantly clear that Californians are demanding a new path forward,” campaign manager Erica Melendrez said. “Sheriff Bianco represents a safe California, an affordable California, an educated California and a leader with integrity and character that ALL Californians can be proud of.”

DiCamillo said Porter’s 6% drop over those three months was significant, given that the California governor’s race is so tight, but cautioned that it’s still early in the 2026 campaign season and a lot of shifting will happen before the June gubernatorial primary.

Porter’s campaign declined to comment on the drop in support and noted instead that she still led the Democratic field.

“Poll after poll continues to show Katie as the strongest Democrat in the race, driven by a growing coalition of grassroots supporters — not powerful special interests,” spokesperson Peter Opitz said. “Californians know her record of taking on Donald Trump and trust her to tackle our cost crisis, from skyrocketing rent and housing costs to rising healthcare premiums and unaffordable child care.”

Porter came under fire in October after an outburst during an interview with CBS reporter Julie Watts. When the Sacramento-based journalist asked Porter what she would say to Californians who voted for Trump, the UC Irvine law professor responded that she didn’t need their support.

After Watts asked follow-up questions, Porter accused the reporter of being “unnecessarily argumentative,” held up her hands and later said, “I don’t want this all on camera.”

The next day, a 2021 video emerged of Porter berating a staff member during a videoconference with a member of the Biden administration. “Get out of my f— shot!” Porter said to the young woman after she came into view in the background. Porter’s comments in the video were first reported by Politico.

Porter later acknowledged that she mishandled the television news interview, but explained that she felt the reporter’s questioning implied she should cater to Trump’s supporters. Porter also said she apologized to her staff member, saying her remarks were “inappropriate,” that she values her staff and could have handled that situation better.

Her Democratic gubernatorial rivals seized on the videos. Former state Controller Betty Yee called on Porter to drop out of the race, and businessman Stephen Cloobeck and former Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa attacked her in ads about the uproar.

While difficult to assess, the negative news coverage and publicity surrounding those incidents appear to have taken a toll on Porter’s reputation. No other candidate experienced a similar shift in support.

According to the new poll, 26% of California voters had a favorable opinion of Porter, compared with 33% who saw her unfavorably — with the remainder having no opinion. That’s a major drop from when she was running for the U.S. Senate last year, when 45% of voters had a favorable opinion in February 2024 and 27% were sour on her.

Political scientist Eric Schickler, co-director of the Berkeley institute that conducted the poll, said Porter looks vulnerable, and that makes the governor’s race a more attractive contest for current candidates and those who may be considering joining it.

Aside from Porter and Bianco, the poll found that 8% of voters favored former U.S. Health and Human Services Secretary Xavier Becerra, a Democrat; the same percentage backed conservative commentator Steve Hilton. Villaraigosa had support from 5% of voters, Yee 3%, and California Supt. of Public Instruction Tony Thurmond 1%. Cloobeck and former Democratic legislator Ian Calderon registered less than 1%.

Another potential candidate — billionaire developer Rick Caruso — was backed by 3% of voters, the poll found. Caruso said Monday night that he still was considering running for either governor or Los Angeles mayor and will decide in a few weeks.

Schickler said the results of Tuesday’s election may be a sign that moderate or business-friendly Democrats — including Caruso — may not fare so well in a state as Democratic as California. Voters across the nation delivered a sharp rebuke to Trump, electing Democrats in major races in New York City, New Jersey and Virginia and passing Proposition 50, the California ballot measure designed to help Democrats take control of the U.S. House of Representatives after the 2026 election.

“Somebody like Caruso, his narrative would probably look a lot stronger if Democrats still seemed on the defensive and in disarray,” Schickler said. “But after Prop. 50 passing, big Democratic wins in New Jersey and Virginia, I think the argument for a need to change what we’re doing dramatically, at least in a state like California, is less likely to resonate.”

The Berkeley IGS/Times poll surveyed 8,141 California registered voters online in English and Spanish from Oct. 20 to 27. The results are estimated to have a margin of error of 2 percentage points in either direction in the overall sample, and larger numbers for subgroups.

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Porter, a former Orange County congresswoman and a top candidate in California’s 2026 governor’s race, said that she “could have handled things better.”

“I think I’m known as someone who’s able to handle tough questions, who’s willing to answer questions,” Porter told Nikki Laurenzo, an anchor on FOX40 in Sacramento. “I want people to know that I really value the incredible work that my staff can do. I think people who know me know I can be tough. But I need to do a better job expressing appreciation for the amazing work my team does.”

Last week, a video emerged of Porter telling a separate television reporter that she doesn’t need the support of the millions of Californians who voted for President Trump, and brusquely threatening to end the interview because the reporter asked follow-up questions. The following day, a second video emerged of Porter telling a young staffer “Get out of my f—ing shot!” while videoconferencing with a member of then-President Biden’s cabinet in 2021.

Porter on Tuesday said that she had apologized to the staffer. She repeatedly sidestepped Laurenzo’s questions about whether other videos could emerge.

“What I can tell you … is that I am taking responsibility for the situation,” Porter said.

Porter’s behavior in the videos underscored long-standing questions about her temperament and high staff turnover while she served in Congress.

The most recent polls showed that Porter held a narrow lead in the competitive race to replace Gov. Gavin Newsom, who is serving his second and final term as governor. After the videos emerged last week, several of Porter’s rivals criticized her behavior, including former state Controller Betty Yee, who said she should drop out of the race.

On Tuesday, Yee argued that Porter’s temperament could imperil Democrats’ efforts to pass Proposition 50, the Nov. 4 ballot measure to redraw congressional districts in California to boost their party’s numbers in the House.

Yee, a former vice chair of the state Democratic party, warned that a Republican could potentially win the governor’s race and Democrats could lose the U.S. House of Representatives because of Porter’s “demeanor.”

“I don’t relish picking a fight, and it’s not even a fight,” Yee said during a virtual press conference. “I’m doing what’s best for this party.”

Porter is also expected to address the issue Tuesday night during a virtual forum with the California Working Families Party.

Prior to her statements on Tuesday, Porter had released one statement about the 2021 video, saying, “It’s no secret I hold myself and my staff to a high standard, and that was especially true as a member of Congress. I have sought to be more intentional in showing gratitude to my staff for their important work.”

The UC Irvine law professor has not responded to multiple interview requests from the Times.

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With Harris’ announcement this week that she’s out, a new question arose: Who’s the front-runner now?

Because of Harris’ star power, the answer is far from simple. For months, other candidates saw their campaign planning and fundraising undercut by the possibility she would run, meaning the race got a big reset seconds after Harris made her announcement Wednesday.

Some political observers give the nod to former U.S. Rep. Katie Porter, who appears to have a small leg up over her opponents.

Porter was the only Democrat to receive double-digit support in multiple polls when Harris was not included in the field.

A prodigious fundraiser while she was in Congress representing an Orange County district, Porter reported a strong infusion of cash in the months after launching her campaign in March, and said she raised $250,000 in the 36 hours after Harris’ announcement.

“The enthusiasm we’re seeing from donors at every level shows that Californians know how critical this race is,” Porter said in an email blast.

Other candidates — including Xavier Becerra, U.S. Secretary of Health and Human Services in the Biden administration and a former California attorney general — have also tried to assert that, with Harris out, they are moving up.

“BECERRA CAMPAIGN BUILDING MOMENTUM IN ‘WIDE OPEN’ RACE,” read the subject line of an email sent Friday by the Becerra campaign, saying he is “well-positioned to unite a broad swath of voters around his plans to make health care and housing less expensive and more accessible.”

Outside observers, however, said that none of the candidates really stand out from the pack at the moment.

“That these remaining candidates are jockeying for bragging rights about who may be the front-runner — it’s to be expected, but it’s ludicrous,” said Garry South, a veteran Democratic strategist who has worked on a number of past gubernatorial campaigns, including for former Gov. Gray Davis.

“With Harris opting out, there will likely be no obvious front-runner among the remainder of the current field for quite some time,” South said. “None of these candidates start out with statewide name recognition.”

With such a wide-open field, factors such as endorsements and communication strategies will be important to watch, experts said. So will the candidates’ ability to raise money and use it to broaden their appeal.

“I would start spending money on social media, on television advertising, on every single platform I could find to build up my name ID,” South said, but “none of them have enough money to do that at the moment.”

Experience and endorsements

With Harris out, will she back someone else?

“Obviously if she did endorse, that would be a big plus” for whichever candidate she rallied behind, said John Pitney, a professor of politics at Claremont McKenna College.

Harris has long relationships with several of the candidates in the race. A source familiar with her thinking told The Times after Harris bowed out that she was still considering whether and how to approach the governor’s race.

Other endorsements could affect the race as well. Hours after Harris announced her decision, Rep. Nancy Pelosi (D-San Francisco), the influential former House Speaker, appeared on CNN to endorse Lt. Gov. Eleni Kounalakis, whom she has known for years.

“We have many great candidates, one in particular Eleni Tsakopoulos, whom I support,” Pelosi said, referring to Kounalakis by her maiden name.

Kounalakis’ father, the wealthy developer Angelo Tsakopoulos, helped bankroll an independent expenditure committee supporting his daughter’s 2018 campaign for lieutenant governor. Political observers are watching to see if he dumps money into a similar effort backing her gubernatorial campaign.

Pitney said Pelosi’s opinion “would carry a lot more weight” if she were still speaker. He said it “isn’t necessarily going to sway a large chunk of the electorate,” but could be important if it sways Bay Area donors.

A former GOP legislative aide and national party staffer who renounced his membership in the Republican Party the night Trump was elected in 2016, Pitney said that endorsements are far from a determining factor in today’s political landscape.

“I hesitate to rule anybody out, because very often candidates seem to come out of nowhere — like Mamdani in New York City,” he said, referring to the sudden rise and stunning upset primary win of 33-year-old democratic socialist Zohran Mamdani in the New York mayoral race.

Pitney added that experience in government and administrative leadership also matters, but could also cut against candidates at a time when many voters are frustrated and want something new.

For example, Antonio Villaraigosa, the former state Assembly speaker and L.A. mayor who is in his 70s, “obviously has a long history, but that long history is both an advantage and a disadvantage,” Pitney said.

Villaraigosa has said his campaign is “about the future.” But voters “may not regard him as a fresh face,” Pitney said.

Name recognition and money

None of the current candidates for governor have the same profile as Harris. In fact, they are broadly unknown to huge swaths of the electorate.

That means they have their work cut out for them, Pitney and South said — namely in terms of fundraising.

South said that there “is no question that the Democratic donor base has basically been sitting on their haunches waiting to see what Harris is going to do.”

But, he said, he hasn’t seen any sign yet that donors have picked a favorite candidate now that she’s out, either — which is a problem for candidates with little or no name recognition.

“None of these candidates in the remaining field with Harris out have enough money in the bank to run a statewide campaign for governor,” he said.

South said that could change if Kounalakis gets another major infusion of cash from her father and once again taps her personal wealth.

At the same time, there could also be a “huge blowback” from that sort of splashy family spending, South said, especially if Kounalakis’ opponents pounced on it as distasteful.

“We have not tended in this state to elect moneyed people who try to buy the governor’s race,” he said.

South said he is watching to see if big Bay Area donors decide to back Porter “because of her profile as a progressive.”

Los Angeles developer and 2022 mayoral candidate Rick Caruso “could be a force” if he were to enter the race, Pitney said, because “he has prominence in Southern California and also has a lot of money.”

Fundraising reports

The most recent fundraising reports, which were due Thursday night, shine a light on candidates’ coffers — but only through the end of June, well before Harris dropped out.

The Democrats who do not have the potential to self-fund their campaigns reported having millions of dollars in cash on hand as of June 30, including some who transferred money from prior campaign committees to their gubernatorial accounts.

Former legislative leader Toni Atkins reported having $4.3 million in the campaign, while raising $648,000 and spending $549,000 in the first six months of this year.

Villaraigosa raised $1.1 million and spent $550,000 this year, but reported $3.3 million cash on hand based on fundraising he did last year.

Becerra had $2.1 million in the bank after raising $2.5 million and spending $449,000 in the first six months of the year.

Porter reported raising $2.5 million and spending $449,000 since launching her campaign in March. She said she has $2.1 million in the bank.

Unlike the other candidates, Porter’s campaign revealed her fundraising because her filing on the state disclosure website didn’t show any dollar figures.

Spokesman Nathan Click said her number of small-dollar donors crashed the state’s system, and that they had been working with state officials to get the documents displayed on the secretary of state’s website all day Friday. He said most of Porter’s 34,000 donors contributed less than $200 each.

Riverside County Sheriff Chad Bianco reported raising $1.6 million and spending $609,000 this year, leaving him with $1 million in the bank.

A few candidates reported mediocre fundraising numbers, but have personal wealth they can draw on.

Kounalakis raised just over $100,000 and spent nearly three times as much during the first half of this year. She has more than $4.6 million on hand and millions more in her lieutenant governor campaign account, although some of that money can’t be transferred because of campaign finance rules.

Businessman Stephen J. Cloobeck, a Los Angeles Democrat, raised about $160,000 and spent $1.5 million — including more than $1 million on consultants. He had about $729,000 on hand at the end of the period. He also said he made a $10-million contribution Friday that he said “turbocharged” his campaign.

“One of my many advantages is that I’m not a politician and I am not compromised,” Cloobeck said.

Former Fox News host Steve Hilton, a Republican candidate, raised about $1.5 million, of which $200,000 was a personal loan. Hilton spent about $1 million and has a little less than $800,000 in the bank.

At the lowest end of the fundraising were former state controller Betty Yee, who raised almost $238,000 and spent $255,000, with $637,000 on hand; and state schools superintendent Tony Thurmond, who raised about $70,000, spent about $180,000 and had almost $560,000 on hand.

Both Yee and Thurmond told The Times last month that fundraising had slowed while Democratic donors waited on Harris to make a decision.

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