For decades, Los Angeles has been a national example of coalition politics, where candidates build governing majorities by stitching together groups with different interests and histories. The model has shifted repeatedly as the city has changed.

Former Mayor Tom Bradley, Los Angeles’ first Black mayor and its longest-serving chief executive, built one of the city’s most durable coalitions. Elected in 1973, Bradley joined Black voters with liberal voters then concentrated on the Westside, a base strong enough to carry him through four additional mayoral victories.

Richard Riordan, a moderate Republican and Catholic who succeeded Bradley, reworked the city’s political map in 1993 by winning support from the San Fernando Valley, moderate voters in central Los Angeles and Latino voters. That coalition helped him win reelection easily, but it has proved impossible for later Republicans to duplicate as GOP registration in the city has fallen to less than 15% of voters.

Other mayors have risen or fallen depending on how well they held together key voting groups. James Hahn won with backing from the Valley and Black voters, but lost support after opposing San Fernando Valley secession and declining to reappoint Police Chief Bernard C. Parks. He was defeated when he sought a second term. Antonio Villaraigosa later drew strong support from Latinos and liberals and served two terms. Eric Garcetti carried that coalition through the COVID-19 era.

Bass’ 2022 victory reflected, in part, a return to the Bradley-style formula. She began with strong backing from Black voters and expanded her support among progressives with help from organized labor. That coalition was enough to defeat Rick Caruso, a former Republican running as a Democrat who spent more than $100 million of his own money on the campaign.

This year, however, Bass faces a different kind of challenge. Raman is also a woman of color, but she is younger and positioned further to the left politically. That creates an unusual test for Bass: a coalition built to defeat a well-funded, more conservative opponent now must be reoriented against a progressive challenger.

Early results from the election earlier this month showed Bass performing well in central Los Angeles, where many Black and Latino voters live. Raman led in younger, more progressive neighborhoods such as Silver Lake, Echo Park and parts of the southeast San Fernando Valley.

The returns also revealed possible openings and limitations for both candidates. Spencer Pratt, despite running without traditional qualifications or a detailed policy platform, won precincts on the Westside and in the western San Fernando Valley. Even so, Bass often finished second in those areas, a notable result given that Pratt’s campaign capitalized on frustration with City Hall and with Bass in particular.

If Bass becomes the more moderate or conservative option in a runoff, that could make it harder for Raman to pick up votes in those precincts. Raman, who received 28.5% of the vote, would need to expand well beyond her existing base to cross the 50% threshold.

One group that may matter more than in past Los Angeles elections is newer residents. At a recent event hosted by UCLA’s Blueprint magazine and co-sponsored by CalMatters, City Council President Marqueece Harris-Dawson said people who have arrived in Los Angeles more recently often bring different political priorities than longtime residents.

Housing is one major example. Many newer Angelenos strongly support building more housing density, arguing that it could help address high rents and homelessness. But Harris-Dawson noted that for many longtime residents, particularly Black families who migrated from the South, Los Angeles represented something different: a place where they could buy a home, have a yard and enjoy space that had been denied to them elsewhere.

For those residents, single-family neighborhoods are not simply inefficient land use. They are tied to opportunity, stability and freedom.

Public safety may also be viewed differently depending on a voter’s history with the city. Some of Pratt’s supporters, including people commenting on social media who have not lived or worked in Los Angeles, portrayed the city as being in severe decline. Newer residents or those from more insulated neighborhoods may share that view, especially in a city that still struggles with serious violence. Last year, Los Angeles recorded 230 homicides.

But longtime Angelenos may see the same number through a different lens. The city once recorded more than 1,000 killings in a year. Many residents also remember the 1992 unrest following the acquittal of Los Angeles police officers in the beating of a Black motorist, part of a broader history of police abuse and racial tension.

In that context, current crime levels can be seen as both deeply troubling and significantly improved from earlier decades. Whether voters focus on the danger that remains or the progress made may shape how they respond to candidates’ messages.

New residents can bring urgency, energy and expectations for change. They may be less attached to older political habits and less willing to accept longstanding conditions. At the same time, longtime residents can view some of those criticisms as lacking historical understanding.

That divide could become one of the defining features of the mayoral race. Bass is expected to draw her strongest support from voters with deeper roots in the city, while Raman appears positioned to appeal to newer arrivals and younger progressive voters.

Los Angeles politics has long been shaped by coalitions of race, class, ideology and neighborhood. This election may add another major bloc to the calculation: voters divided by their relationship to the city’s past.

Original source: CalMatters

The post Nithya Raman Could Further Reshape L.A.’s Shifting Political Alliances appeared first on The Hemet & San Jacinto Chronicle.

The Associated Press called the race Monday, confirming that Raman, 44, a progressive council member, had secured the No. 2 spot behind Bass. Pratt, a Republican supported by President Donald Trump, had initially appeared to be in stronger position, but his standing slipped as more ballots were tallied.

The shift angered some Pratt supporters, with some making unsupported claims about the counting process. But California’s election rules often produce extended vote counts because ballots postmarked by Election Day are valid even if they arrive afterward. In this race, later-arriving ballots appeared to favor younger and more liberal voters, benefiting Raman more than Pratt.

Los Angeles remains difficult terrain for a Republican candidate. The city’s electorate is roughly 15% Republican, and Pratt’s support closely tracked Trump’s 2024 performance in a city where the president remains deeply unpopular. Pratt campaigned as an anti-City Hall candidate, seeking to unite voters frustrated with local government, but he finished with about a quarter of the vote.

The result sets up the contest Bass had hoped to avoid: a challenge from her left by a sitting council member with an established progressive base. Raman’s strongest showing came in neighborhoods such as Silver Lake, Hollywood, Echo Park and Glassell Park, areas with large numbers of renters, younger residents and left-leaning voters.

Bass, meanwhile, showed strength across broad portions of South and Central Los Angeles, where Black and Latino voters helped power her first mayoral victory. Those neighborhoods have long been central to Bass’ coalition and remain proud of her role as the first Black woman elected mayor of Los Angeles. They also include communities that have seen significant improvements in safety over recent decades, even as concerns about homelessness, affordability and public services persist.

Still, the runoff presents a serious test for Bass. Nearly two-thirds of voters in the first round cast ballots for someone other than the incumbent, signaling frustration with the direction of City Hall. Raman is expected to press Bass on housing costs, homelessness policy, public safety spending and whether Los Angeles has moved quickly enough to address daily struggles faced by renters and working families.

Raman’s campaign is likely to focus heavily on the city’s affordability crisis, including the high cost of housing and the pace of development. She also has positioned herself as a candidate seeking new approaches to policing and public safety, an issue that could draw sharp contrasts with Bass.

Those questions now move to the center of the mayoral race: whether Los Angeles spends too much of its budget on the Police Department, whether the city’s neighborhood protections slow housing construction, and how officials should handle homeless encampments when shelter and housing options remain limited.

Bass will run on a record that includes declines in crime and street homelessness, though many Angelenos remain impatient with the pace of change. Raman, for her part, will have to convince voters that she can offer a fresh direction while also accounting for her own record on the City Council, where she has served since 2020.

The runoff also leaves a major political question: what happens to the roughly 25% of voters who supported Pratt?

Many of those voters were motivated by opposition to Bass and anger at City Hall. They now face a choice between the incumbent mayor, whom some blame for city failures including the response to the Palisades fire, and Raman, a democratic socialist whom Pratt repeatedly criticized during the campaign. Some may sit out the runoff altogether. Others may find Bass closer to their views, particularly on policing and encampments.

Bass’ first response after Raman advanced suggested how she intends to frame the race. She described Raman as a council member who “allows encampments near schools and cuts the police force,” signaling that the mayor will try to position herself as the more moderate or conservative option in the runoff.

With Pratt out, the race is expected to become a more direct debate over Los Angeles’ future: whether voters want Bass to continue her approach to homelessness, policing and city services, or whether Raman can turn frustration over affordability and slow-moving change into a winning campaign.

Original source: CalMatters

The post With Pratt Out and Raman In, Los Angeles Mayoral Race Takes New Shape appeared first on The Hemet & San Jacinto Chronicle.