The survey of more than 1,100 likely voters found 52% in favor of the measure and 46% opposed — a margin close enough to fall within the poll’s statistical margin of error. Complicating matters further, the same poll found narrow majority support for two competing measures backed by tech billionaires that would effectively cancel out Prop. 40 if both pass.

Proposition 40 would levy a one-time 5% tax on the wealth of roughly 200 California billionaires, with proceeds intended to help cushion the state’s Medi-Cal program against deep federal funding cuts. The initiative, championed by a healthcare workers union, has created an unusual rift within the labor movement, pitting some unions and progressive groups against each other.

In response, a coalition of wealthy tech industry figures placed two rival measures on the ballot. Proposition 41 would prevent new state tax measures — like Prop. 40 — from bypassing California’s constitutional spending limits, and drew support from 51% of likely voters polled. Proposition 42 goes further, seeking to prohibit any new state taxes on property or personal assets altogether; that measure earned 54% support.

Under California’s constitution, when two conflicting ballot measures both win voter approval, only the one with the higher share of “yes” votes takes effect. That means even if Prop. 40 passes, it could be nullified if Prop. 41 or Prop. 42 receives more support.

Both Gov. Gavin Newsom and the two major candidates hoping to succeed him — Democrat Xavier Becerra and Republican Steve Hilton — have come out against the billionaire tax measure. The poll also showed Becerra maintaining a commanding lead over Hilton in the governor’s race.

Prop. 40 isn’t the only tax-related question facing Inland Empire and Southern California voters this fall. Proposition 3, which would lock in a higher income tax rate for the state’s top earners, drew 58% support in the poll. Meanwhile, Proposition 43 — which would raise the vote threshold required for local governments to approve new taxes — appears to be trailing, with 51% of respondents opposed.

Voters also leaned against a Republican-backed measure that would require government-issued identification at polling places, with 55% opposed, while several bond measures on the ballot drew majority support.

Perhaps the most unified sentiment in the entire poll had nothing to do with any single measure: Nearly 80% of respondents said they believe there are simply too many propositions cluttering this year’s ballot.

Voters looking for more guidance on the November election can consult CalMatters’ voter guide online, and the organization is hosting a series of community discussion events across the state, including sessions this week in San Francisco and San Diego, with a Riverside event planned for later this month focused on election security in the Inland Empire.

In other Sacramento news this week, an oversight report revealed troubling spending patterns at California’s High-Speed Rail Authority, including nearly $40 spent on a luxury rideshare for a trip of less than a mile, gym visits billed as work travel, and repeated flights between Denver and California for vague “executive team” meetings. Investigators flagged more than $685,000 in questionable travel reimbursements paid to outside consultants between 2024 and 2026, including expenses tied to nightclubs, cigar lounges and escape rooms. Assembly Republican leader Alexandra Macedo of Visalia criticized the spending as wasteful.

Separately, state Senate leader Monique Limón of Santa Barbara closed out her first year as Senate president pro tem having kept her Democratic caucus unified on several fronts, including negotiations over liability protections for local governments facing child sexual abuse lawsuits and a wildfire cost-reduction plan that ultimately stalled after Newsom and Assembly Speaker Robert Rivas intervened at the last minute.

And earlier this week, Newsom signed nearly 50 new bills into law, including first-in-the-nation standards for testing and cleaning up smoke damage in homes affected by wildfires — a response to concerns raised after major blazes, including the Eaton Fire that tore through the La Cañada Flintridge area in January.

Original source: CalMatters

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