MOSCOW (AP) — President Vladimir Putin said Wednesday that Russia would prefer to see U.S. President Joe Biden win a second term, describing him as more experienced than Donald Trump.

Speaking in an interview with a correspondent of Russian state television, Putin declared that he will work with any U.S. leader who is elected, but noted unequivocally that he would prefer Biden’s victory when asked who would be a better choice from the point of view of Russia.

“Biden, he’s more experienced, more predictable, he’s a politician of the old formation,” Putin said. “But we will work with any U.S. leader whom the American people trust.”

Asked about speculation on Biden’s health issues, Putin responded that “I’m not a doctor and I don’t consider it proper to comment on that.”

Biden’s team worked to alleviate Democratic concerns over alarms raised by a special counsel about Biden’s age and memory. They came in a report determining that Biden would not be charged with any criminal activity for possessing classified documents after he left office.

Putin noted that the talk about Biden’s health comes as “the election campaign is gaining speed in the U.S., and it’s taking an increasingly sharp course.”

He added that allegations of Biden’s health problems were also circulating at the time when they met in Switzerland in June 2021, adding that he witnessed the contrary and saw the U.S. leader in a good shape.

“They talked about him being incapacitated, but I saw nothing of the kind,” Putin said. “Yes, he was peeking at his papers, to be honest, I was peeking at mine, not a big deal.”

At the same time, Putin noted that he sees the Biden administration policy as wrong.

Russia-West ties have plunged to their lowest levels since the Cold War era after Putin sent his troops into Ukraine in February 2022.

“I believe that the position of the current administration is badly flawed and wrong, and I have told President Biden about that,” Putin said.

Putin has claimed that he has sent troops into Ukraine to protect Russian speakers there and to prevent a threat to Russia’s security posed by Ukraine’s bid to join NATO. Ukraine and its Western allies have denounced Moscow’s action as an unprovoked act of aggression.

Putin argued that Moscow was forced to act after Ukraine and its allies refused to fulfill a 2015 agreement to grant more powers to separatist territories in eastern Ukraine, where Moscow-backed separatists launched a rebellion in 2014.

“We only can regret that we didn’t act earlier, thinking that we are dealing with decent people,” Putin said.

Asked about Trump’s statement on Saturday, in which he said he once warned he would allow Russia to do whatever it wants to NATO member nations that are “delinquent” in devoting 2% of their gross domestic product to defense, Putin responded that it’s up to the U.S. to determine its role in the alliance.

Trump’s statement sharply contrasted with Biden’s pledge “to defend every inch of NATO territory,” as the alliance commits all members to do in case of attack. It shocked many in Europe, drawing a pledge from Poland, France and Germany to bolster Europe’s security and defense power.

Putin noted that Trump’s statement followed his policy during his first term when he prodded NATO allies in Europe to increase their defense spending.

“He has his own view on how relations with allies should develop,” Putin said about Trump. ”From his point of view, there is some logic in this, while from the point of view of the Europeans, there is no logic at all, and they would like the U.S. to keep carrying out some functions they have fulfilled since the formation of NATO free of charge.”

He described NATO as a “U.S. foreign policy tool,” adding that “if the U.S. thinks that it no longer needs this tool it’s up to it to decide.”

Asked about his impressions from his last week’s interview with former Fox News host Tucker Carlson, Putin said he expected Carlson to be more aggressive. Putin used the interview to push his narrative on the fighting in Ukraine, urge Washington to recognize Moscow’s interests and press Kyiv to sit down for talks.

“I expected him to be aggressive and ask the so-called tough questions, and I wasn’t only ready for it but wanted it because it would have given me a chance to respond sharply,” Putin said.

Carlson didn’t ask Putin about war crimes Russian troops have been accused of in Ukraine, or about his relentless crackdown on dissent.

“He didn’t allow me to do what I was ready for,” Putin said, describing Carlson as a “dangerous man.”

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MOSCOW (AP) — Russia’s election commission on Monday formally registered President Vladimir Putin as a candidate for the March presidential election, a vote in which he’s all but certain to win another six-year term in office.

Putin, 71, is running as an independent, but he retains tight control over Russia’s political system that he has established during 24 years in power. With prominent critics who could challenge him either jailed or living abroad and most independent media banned, his re-election in the March 15-17 presidential vote looks all but assured.

In 2018, Putin also ran as an independent, snubbing the United Russia party that nominated him to run in 2012. With his approval ratings hovering around 80 percent, Putin is far more popular than United Russia, which is widely seen as a part of the Kremlin-controlled state bureaucracy rather than a political force.

The Central Election Commission formally cleared Putin for the race after reviewing 315,000 signatures gathered by his campaign from all 89 regions of Russia. Russian election law requires independent candidates to present at least 300,000 signatures to get on the ballot.

The commission already has approved three other candidates who were nominated by parties represented in parliament and weren’t required to collect signatures: Nikolai Kharitonov of the Communist Party, Leonid Slutsky of the nationalist Liberal Democratic Party and Vladislav Davankov of the New People Party.

All three parties have been largely supportive of the Kremlin’s policies. Kharitonov ran against Putin in 2004, finishing a distant second.

Boris Nadezhdin, a 60-year-old liberal politician who serves as a local legislator in a town near Moscow, is also seeking to run. He has openly called for a halt to the conflict in Ukraine and starting a dialogue with the West.

Thousands of Russians have lined up across the country to leave their signatures in support of Nadezhdin’s candidacy to allow him to qualify for the race, an unusual show of opposition sympathies in the rigidly controlled political landscape that raised a challenge for the Kremlin.

The Central Election Commission is expected to review Nadezhdin’s papers later this week to decide whether to register him for the race.

Under a constitutional reform that he engineered, Putin is eligible to seek two more six-year terms, potentially allowing him to remain in power until 2036.

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MOSCOW (AP) — Russian President Vladimir Putin declared Tuesday that his country’s military has seized the initiative in Ukraine after repelling a monthslong counteroffensive and is well positioned to achieve Moscow’s goals.

Putin spoke at a meeting with top military brass a day after he presented documents to Russia’s Central Election Commission to seek reelection in the March presidential vote that he’s all but certain to win.

“Our troops are holding the initiative,” the Russian leader said. “We are effectively doing what we think is needed, doing what we want. Where our commanders consider it necessary to stick to active defenses they are doing so, and we are improving our positions where it’s needed.”

The Russian leader praised Russia’s troops for beating back Ukrainian attacks during the counteroffensive that started in June.

“The enemy has suffered heavy casualties and to a large extent wasted its reserves while trying to show at least some results of its so-called counteroffensive to its masters,” Putin said, adding that ”the myth about invulnerability of Western weapons also has collapsed.”

“All attempts by the West to deliver us a military defeat, a strategic defeat, were shattered by the courage and fortitude of our soldiers, the growing might of our armed forces and the potential of our military industries,” Putin said.

During the counteroffensive that began in early June, Ukrainian forces have failed to make any significant gains as they faced multiecheloned Russian defensive lines, including sprawling minefields.

Speaking at the same meeting, Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu said that the Russian minefields spread for 7,000 kilometers (more than 4,300 miles).

Shoigu said that 650,000 Russian soldiers have received combat experience in Ukraine, turning the Russian army into “the best prepared and capable army in the world, armed with advanced weapons that have been tested in combat.”

“Despite the sanctions, we produce more high-tech weapons than NATO countries,” Shoigu said.

He declared that the Russian arms industries have increased the output of tanks by 5.6 times, the number of drones built by 16.8 times and bolstered the production of artillery munitions by 17.5 times since the start of what the Kremlin calls “the special military operation” in Ukraine.

Shoigu said the military has received more than 1,500 new and modernized tanks, more than 2,500 armored infantry vehicles and 237 new planes and helicopters.

The minister said Russia’s armed forces were finalizing preparations for putting the Sarmat heavy intercontinental ballistic missile on combat duty and also building the infrastructure for the deployment of the Burevestnik nuclear-powered cruise missile and the Poseidon atomic-powered, nuclear-armed underwater drone.

Shoigu charged that military personnel from NATO countries operate Ukraine’s air defense systems, multiple rocket launchers and tactical missile systems and also help plan military operations and train troops. He didn’t provide specifics to support his claim.

While hailing the military’s performance, Putin noted the need to improve military communications, streamline the use of intelligence and counterartillery means, and increase supplies of precision munitions and drones. He added that Russia also needs to expand the capability of its satellite assets.

Putin particularly emphasized the importance of bolstering the country’s nuclear forces, saying that their role has increased amid “the changing character of military threats and the emergence of new military-political risks.”

Putin reaffirmed his long-held argument that he sent Russian troops into Ukraine to counter security threats to Russia posed by Western plans to incorporate the country in NATO. Ukraine and its Western allies have denounced the move by Moscow as an unprovoked act of aggression.

“The West isn’t abandoning its strategy of containment of Russia and its aggressive goals in Ukraine,” Putin said. “Well, we also aren’t going to abandon the goals of the special military operation.”

He declared that Russia is open for talks to end the conflict but warned that “we won’t give up what is ours.”

“If they want to talk, let them enter the talks,”Putin said. “But we will proceed from our interests.”

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For President Vladimir Putin, winning reelection will probably be the easy part. His sweeping grip on Russia’s political scene has virtually assured him another six-year term that would extend his two dozen years in power.

More daunting will be the thorny challenges that lie ahead.

The stalemated war in Ukraine, unyielding Western pressure that compounds Russia’s economic problems, and intensifying infighting among the ruling elite will loom over Putin’s next term and erode his pledges of stability.

THE WAR IN UKRAINE

What Putin expected to be a quick campaign in 2022 to establish Kremlin control over its neighbor has turned into a grinding war of attrition that has incurred massive personnel losses and drained Russia’s resources.

While Russia has prevented Ukraine’s army from making any significant gains during its summer counteroffensive, the Kremlin doesn’t have enough manpower and equipment to mount any major campaigns of its own.

The resulting stalemate sets the stage for months of positional fighting during the winter, when the weather hampers any large moves and likely will make both sides focus on protecting their gains.

Putin expects that continuing warfare will gradually exhaust Ukrainian resources and undermine Western support for Kyiv, but a protracted conflict also exacerbates Russia’s economic woes, deepens social problems and fuels divisions within the ruling elite.

Tatiana Stanovaya of the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center pointed to a widening gap between technocrats holding top administrative jobs and hard-liners who are eager to extend their sway and push an even more hawkish course.

“The longer uncertainty remains around the outcome of the war, the louder the voices of the revisionists will grow,” Stanovaya wrote in an analysis. “Instability, military setbacks, escalation, and Russia’s deteriorating position in the war all serve to empower the revisionists and undermine the administrators.”

TENSIONS WITH THE WEST

Despite Moscow’s hopes that Western assistance for Ukraine will dwindle amid growing fatigue with the war and election campaigns in the U.S. and other Western countries, Washington and its allies have vowed to continue supporting Kyiv for as a long as necessary. Both the U.S. and the European Union also pledge that the Israel-Hamas war will not distract them from helping Ukraine.

While bruising U.S. and EU sanctions have failed to deal a knockout blow to the Russian economy and force the Kremlin to halt its invasion as some in the West have expected, the restrictions have curtailed revenue from oil, gas and other key exports and sharply limited access to Western technology.

Adding to the pain, 300 billion euros of Russian Central Bank reserves have been blocked in the West.

Putin has sought to counter the sanctions by strengthening ties with China, which has become a key market for Russian oil and gas and a source of high-tech imports. Some observers have noted that the growing dependence on China will likely cement Russia’s role as a junior partner in the alliance and limit Putin’s room for maneuvering.

Amid Western efforts to block sources of weapons and military technology, Moscow has turned to Iran for drones to attack Ukrainian energy systems and other vital infrastructure. In September, Putin hosted North Korean leader Kim Jong Un for talks on expanding ties, a meeting that the U.S. said resulted in a deal that saw Pyongyang deliver munitions to Russia for the war.

Despite Putin’s efforts to offset crippling Western sanctions, they will continue to weaken the Russian economy, reduce Moscow’s war potential and dash any hopes for recovery. The U.S. and the EU have worked methodically to tighten their implementation and close any loopholes, targeting companies in third countries that have helped Moscow bypass the restrictions.

OTHER ECONOMIC CHALLENGES

Shifting energy exports to China and India has helped offset losing access to lucrative European markets, and Russian industries have found new import channels to circumvent U.S. and EU restrictions on technology.

Russia’s economic output fell by 2.1% last year under Western sanctions, but it’s officially forecast to expand by 2.8% this year, a performance that Putin hailed as a sign it was on the road to recovery. The growth has been driven mostly, however, by a sharp increase in government spending, predominantly linked to the war. Next year, defense allocations will increase by more than 70% and account for about a third of total government spending.

The mobilization of 300,000 reservists in fall 2022 and the recruitment of nearly 400,000 contract soldiers will weigh heavily on the economy, and the exodus of hundreds of thousands more who fled the country will compound labor shortages that stymie prospects for longer-term growth.

At the same time, the depreciation of the ruble, which has lost a third of its value this year, has fueled inflation, forcing the Russian Central Bank to raise the key interest rate to 15%. The Cabinet also has tried to boost the ruble by tightening demand for exporters to convert their hard currency earnings.

The fundamental economic problems will remain, with little potential for growth as European markets remain shut and the oversized military spending steals resources from other sectors.

POLITICAL TURMOIL AND DYSFUNCTION

Opinion polls show Putin’s approval ratings around 80%, reflecting the lack of competition in the tightly controlled political system and rallying around the flag amid the war.

But even though Putin has eradicated most dissent and built top-down control devoid of any checks and balances and political competition, that seemingly total command proved illusory during June’s mutiny by mercenary chief Yevgeny Prigozhin. His Wagner contractors swept over military headquarters in southern Russia and mounted a quick march toward Moscow without any serious resistance. The brief uprising marked the most serious challenge to Putin’s rule since his ascent to power, badly denting his authority.

Despite denials of government involvement, the death of Prigozhin and his top lieutenants in a mysterious plane crash in August was widely seen as an act of vengeance that helped restore Putin’s credibility among the elites. But the fragility of the Kremlin’s controls has become all too apparent.

Another blow to the Kremlin’s carefully cultivated notion of total control was the riot at an airport in the Russian province of Dagestan, targeting a flight from Israel. The mob rushed onto the tarmac, chased passengers and threw stones at police. It challenged the narrative that ethnic and religious groups co-exist in harmony in Russia and weakened Putin’s claim that Moscow wasn’t taking sides in the Israel-Hamas war.

Observers saw the riot as yet more proof of the Kremlin’s inability to maintain control over an increasingly restive political scene and was a harbinger of more upheaval.

“We have seen a striking dysfunction of law enforcement agencies and the whole of the federal government,” political scientist Ekaterina Schulmann observed in a commentary. “Like in the case with Prigozhin, a sudden threat and rapidly unfolding developments have left the system in complete paralysis.”

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MOSCOW (AP) — Russian President Vladimir Putin on Tuesday, in a ranting speech before a presidential election campaign, cast Moscow’s military action in Ukraine as an existential battle against purported attempts by the West to destroy Russia.

Putin, who has been in power for more than two decades and is the longest-serving Russian leader since Soviet dictator Josef Stalin, is expected to soon declare his intention to seek another six-year term in a presidential election next March.

“We are defending the security and well-being of our people, the highest, historical right to be Russia — a strong, independent power, a country-civilization,” Putin said, accusing the U.S. and its allies of trying to “dismember and plunder” Russia.

Ukraine and its Western allies have condemned the Russian action against Ukraine as an unprovoked act of aggression.

“We are now fighting for the freedom of not only Russia, but the whole world,” Putin said in a speech to participants of a meeting organized by the Russian Orthodox Church.

He denounced what he described as Western “Russophobia,” claiming that “our diversity and unity of cultures, traditions, languages, and ethnic groups simply don’t fit into the logic of Western racists and colonialists, into their cruel scheme of total depersonalization, disunity, suppression and exploitation.”

“If they can’t do it by force, they will try to sow strife,” he said, vowing to block “any outside interference, provocations with the aim of causing interethnic or interreligious conflicts as aggressive actions against our country, as an attempt to once again foment terrorism and extremism in Russia as a tool to fight us.”

Russian authorities have intensified their crackdown on dissent amid the fighting in Ukraine, arresting and imprisoning protesters and activists and silencing independent news outlets.

Putin said that the U.S.-dominated global order has become increasingly decrepit, declaring that “it is our country that is now at the forefront of creating a more equitable world order.”

“And I want to emphasize: without a sovereign, strong Russia, no lasting, stable world order is possible,” he said.

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FRANKFURT, Germany (AP) — For months after Ukraine’s Western allies limited sales of Russian oil to $60 per barrel, the price cap was still largely symbolic. Most of Moscow’s crude — its main moneymaker — cost less than that.

But the cap was there in case oil prices rose — and would keep the Kremlin from pocketing extra profits to fund its war in Ukraine. That time has now come, putting the price cap to its most serious test so far and underlining its weaknesses.

Russia’s benchmark oil — often exported with Western ships required to obey sanctions — has traded above the price cap since mid-July, pumping hundreds of millions of dollars a day into the Kremlin’s war chest.

With Russia’s profits rising, the Israel-Hamas war pushing up global oil prices and evidence that some traders and shippers are evading the cap, the first signs of enforcement are appearing 10 months after the price limit was imposed in December.

But sanctions advocates say the crackdown needs to go further to really hurt Russia.

Reducing oil profits “is the one thing that hits Russian macroeconomic stability the most,” said Benjamin Hilgenstock, senior economist at the Kyiv School of Economics, which advises the Ukrainian government.

Oil income is the linchpin of Russia’s economy, allowing President Vladimir Putin to pour money into the military while avoiding worsening inflation for everyday people and a currency collapse.

Moscow’s ability to sell more to the world than it buys means it’s weathering sanctions far better than expected. Its economy will grow this year while Germany’s shrinks, the International Monetary Fund estimates.

Still, Russia’s main source of income is at risk from stepped-up enforcement. The U.S. Treasury Department sanctioned two ship owners last week, while U.K. officials are investigating violations.

Since the invasion began, oil sanctions have cost Russia $100 billion through August, said an international working group on sanctions at Stanford University. But most of that, economists say, stems from Europe’s ban on Russian oil, which cost Moscow its main customer.

“There are serious problems with the (price cap) policy, but it can work,” Hilgenstock said. “With some improvements, it can be very effective.”

Vessels owned or insured by Western nations “persisted in loading Russian oil at all ports within Russia” in recent weeks as prices rose above the cap, the Helsinki-based Center for Research on Energy and Clean Air said in a report last week. “These occurrences serve as compelling evidence of violations against the price cap policy.”

Russia’s oil income rose in September to some 200 million euros ($211 million) a day as global prices increased, the think tank said. Less oil available worldwide — with Saudi Arabia and Russia cutting production — pushed prices for Moscow’s key export grade crude to $74.46 last week, S&P Global Platts said. It’s been above $60 since July 11.

The price cap is meant to limit what Russia can earn without taking its supplies off the market. Doing that threatens a shortage that could drive up fuel costs and inflation in the U.S. and Europe.

It relies on a key fact of the shipping industry: many vessel owners, traders and most insurers are based in Europe or the Group of Seven major democracies that imposed the price cap. That puts those companies within reach of sanctions.

To comply, shipping companies need to know the price of Russia’s oil. The cap, however, requires only a good-faith disclosure on a simple, one-page document with the names of the parties and the price. The actual sales contracts don’t have to be revealed.

And that, analysts say, has been an invitation for unscrupulous sellers to fudge — and for some shippers to adopt a see-no-evil approach.

Suspicions about evasion grew when analysts noticed that oil from the Russian port of Kozmino on the Pacific Ocean — responsible for a relatively small share of Russia’s exports — was trading well above the cap. That was even though many of the tankers stopping there were Western-owned, primarily Greek.

There was little sign of enforcement action until last week, when the U.S. Treasury Department blocked a tanker owner in the United Arab Emirates and another in Turkey from dealings in the U.S. They’re accused of carrying Russian oil priced at $75 and $80 per barrel while relying on U.S.-connected service providers.

U.S. officials have warned insurers away from vessels that appear suspicious, a senior Treasury official told reporters last week. The department also issued recommendations to scrutinize transport costs and watch for red flags of evasion.

The U.K. Treasury says it is “actively undertaking a number of investigations into suspected breaches of the oil price cap.”

There’s another opportunity to sidestep the cap: the price is set as oil leaves Russia, not what’s paid by a refinery in, say, India. The oil may be bought and sold several times by Russian-affiliated trading companies in countries not participating in sanctions.

Excessive “transportation costs” may be added. The difference to the end price is pocketed by traders and stays in Russian hands, analysts say.

“The problem is that no one really has any oversight as to what happens after the point of loading,” said Viktor Katona, lead crude analyst at data and analytics group Kpler. “And there’s a reason why the shippers haven’t really complained or haven’t flagged any issues with the oil price cap — because it’s very easily circumvented.”

Russia’s top energy official, Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak, told Radio Business FM on Oct. 13 that the cap was “not only ineffective, but harmful; it can completely distort the entire market and has only negative consequences, including for consumers.”

Russia does not recognize the cap, and a decree by Putin forbids its inclusion in sales agreements, Novak said.

U.S. officials, on the other hand, point to the losses it has inflicted on Moscow when combined with Europe’s ban on Russian oil.

That boycott forced exporters to send oil on monthlong voyages to Asia, instead of dayslong trips to Europe — essentially doubling Russia’s need for expensive shipping services.

Another cost is the “shadow fleet” of used tankers that Russia bought to dodge sanctions. It has only a third of the vessels it would need to completely sanctions-proof its oil shipments, said Craig Kennedy, an associate at Harvard’s Davis Center for Russian and Eurasian Studies.

That makes it hard for Russia to completely avoid Western-based shipping services.

Combined with the EU oil ban, the price cap has added $35 per barrel in costs for Russian exporters, U.S. officials say — money that doesn’t go to buy weapons and military equipment.

“The price cap is working,” says Nataliia Shapoval, vice president for policy research at the Kyiv school.

But Western allies “should take really urgent measures” to push oil from Russia’s shadow fleet back to mainstream shipping, Shapoval said.

To do that, the Stanford sanctions group says countries should demand proof of Western insurance before letting vessels pass chokepoints — now only recommended by the U.S. Treasury. Tanker owners also could be forced to take shipments only from approved oil traders based in sanctioning countries.

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Russian President Vladimir Putin said Monday that a landmark deal allowing Ukraine to export grain safely through the Black Sea amid the war won’t be restored until the West meets Moscow’s demands on its own agricultural exports.

Ukraine and its Western allies have dismissed the Kremlin’s demands as a ploy to advance its own interests.

Still, Putin’s remarks dashed hopes that his talks with Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan could revive an agreement seen as vital for global food supplies, especially in Africa, the Middle East and Asia.

Russia refused to extend the deal in July, complaining that a parallel agreement promising to remove obstacles to Russian exports of food and fertilizer hadn’t been honored. It said restrictions on shipping and insurance hampered its agricultural trade, though it has shipped record amounts of wheat since last year.

Putin reiterated those complaints Monday, while also telling reporters that if those commitments were honored, Russia could return to the deal “within days.”

Erdogan also expressed hope that a breakthrough could come soon. He said Turkey and the U.N. — which both brokered the original deal — have put together a new package of proposals to unblock the issue.

“We believe that we will reach a solution that will meet the expectations in a short time,” Erdogan said at the news conference held with Putin in the Russian resort of Sochi.

Earlier, German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock lashed out, saying Putin’s “game with the grain agreement is cynical.”

“It’s only because of Putin that the freighters don’t have free passage again,” she told reporters in Berlin.

A lot is riding on the negotiation. Ukraine and Russia are major suppliers of wheat, barley, sunflower oil and other goods that developing nations rely on.

Data from the Joint Coordination Center in Istanbul, which organized shipments under the deal, show that 57% of the grain from Ukraine went to developing nations, with the top destination being China.

Grain prices shot up after Russia pulled out of the deal but have since fallen back, indicating that there isn’t a big crunch in the market for the moment.

But failure to revive the agreement will have “drastic impacts” in countries such as Somalia and Egypt that rely heavily on Black Sea grain, according to Galip Dalay, an associate fellow at the Chatham House think tank in London.

Putin is looking for some relief from sanctions and at the same time is engaged in a “war of narratives,” Dalay said, because the Russian leader “doesn’t want to come across as the bad guy in the eyes of the global south as a result of this food insecurity.”

Ukraine and its allies have often noted that Russia’s move left many developing nations in the lurch, since so many were recipients of the grain.

Perhaps in an effort to address that accusation, Putin said Monday that Russia was close to finalizing an agreement to provide free grain to six African countries. Last month, he promised shipments to Burkina Faso, Zimbabwe, Mali, Somalia, Eritrea and Central African Republic.

The Russian leader added that the country will ship 1 million metric tons (1.1 million tons) of cheap grain to Turkey for processing and delivery to poor countries.

In addition to pulling out of the grain deal, Russia has repeatedly attacked the Odesa region, where Ukraine’s main Black Sea port is. Hours before the Sochi meeting, the Kremlin’s forces launched a second barrage in two days on the area. The Ukrainian air force said it intercepted 23 of 32 drones that targeted the Odesa and Dnipropetrovsk regions. It did not specify damage caused by those that got through.

Russia may be hoping it can use its power over Ukraine’s Black Sea exports as a bargaining chip to reduce Western economic sanctions.

Some companies have been wary of doing business with Russia because of those sanctions, even though Western allies have made assurances that food and fertilizer are exempt. Still, Moscow remains unsatisfied.

Ukraine’s Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba on Monday urged Moscow to return to the deal, insisting “there were no legal and political grounds for Russia to withdraw from the agreement.”

Monday’s talks took place against a backdrop of Ukraine’s recent counteroffensive against the Kremlin’s invasion forces.

In the latest development, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said Sunday that Defense Minister Oleksii Reznikov would be replaced this week. The job requires “new approaches,” Zelenskyy said, without elaborating. Reznikov on Monday published a photo of his resignation letter.

Putin and Erdogan — authoritarian leaders who have both been in power for more than two decades — are said to have a close rapport, fostered in the wake of a failed coup against Erdogan in 2016 when Putin was the first major leader to offer his support.

The Turkish president has maintained those during the 18-month war in Ukraine. Turkey hasn’t joined Western sanctions against Russia following its invasion, emerging as a main trading partner and logistical hub for Russia’s overseas trade.

At the same time, Turkey, a member of NATO, has also supported Ukraine, sending arms, meeting Zelenskyy and backing Kyiv’s bid to join the Western alliance.

Russia, meanwhile, has taken steps to strengthen its military ties with North Korea. Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu, who traveled to Pyongyang in July, said Monday that the two countries may hold joint war games.

U.S. National Security Council spokeswoman Adrienne Watson noted that Shoigu sought to persuade North Korea during his trip to sell artillery ammunition to Russia.

The U.S. has reason to think North Korean leader Kim Jong-Un “expects these discussions to continue” and “to include leader-level diplomatic engagement in Russia,” Watson said Monday.

Another U.S. official, who was not authorized to address the matter publicly and spoke on condition of anonymity, said the U.S. expects Kim will travel to Russia within the month. The official said the U.S. isn’t sure exactly where or when the meeting would take place, but the Pacific port city of Vladivostok would be a likely possibility given its relative proximity to North Korea.

The White House reported last week that it had intelligence indicating that Putin and Kim swapped letters following Shoigu’s visit. National Security Council spokesman John Kirby said the letters were “more at the surface level” but that Russian and North Korean talks on a weapons sale were advancing.

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JOHANNESBURG (AP) — Russian President Vladimir Putin took multiple shots at the West on the opening day of an economic summit in South Africa, using a prerecorded speech that was aired on giant screens Tuesday to rail at what he called “illegitimate sanctions” on his country and threatening to cut off Ukraine’s grain exports permanently.

Putin, the subject of an International Criminal Court arrest warrant related to the war in Ukraine, did not travel to Johannesburg for the summit of the BRICS group of emerging economies. Instead, he plans to participate remotely in the three-day meeting of the bloc that encompasses Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa.

His 17-minute speech recorded in advance centered on the war in Ukraine and Russia’s relationship with the West even though South African officials had said East-West frictions should not dominate the first in-person BRICS summit since before the COVID-19 pandemic and hoped to guide the conversation away from the deteriorating geopolitical climate.

Sitting at a desk with a white notebook in front of him and a Russian flag behind, Putin said a wartime deal to facilitate Ukrainian grain shipments that is critical for the world’s food supply would not resume until his conditions – the easing of restrictions on Russian food and agricultural products – are met.

The West’s attempts to punish and isolate Russia financially for sending troops into Ukraine are an “illegitimate sanctions practice and illegal freezing of assets of sovereign states, which essentially amounts to them trampling upon all the basic norms and rules of free trade,” the Russian leader asserted.

Moscow pulled out of the Black Sea Grain Initiative last month and stepped up drone and missile attacks on the city of Odesa in southern Ukraine, home to one of the ports the controlled passage agreement covered.

The initiative was credited with helping reduce soaring prices of wheat, vegetable oil and other global food commodities. Putin maintained that even with Russian exports of grain and fertilizer being “deliberately obstructed,” his country has “the capacity to replace Ukraine in grain, both commercially and in free aid to needy countries,” according to an official translation of his speech at the summit.

The United States and other Western nations have not directly targeted Russian agricultural exports, but moves to restrict Russia’s access to international financial payment systems under some sanctions have made it difficult for the country to get food, fertilizer and other products to market.

“With these facts in mind, since July 18 we have refused to extend the so-called deal,” Putin said. “We will be ready to get back to it, but only if all the obligations to the Russian side are truly fulfilled.”

Chinese President Xi Jinping also brought an air of confrontation to the Johannesburg summit, saying in a speech read on his behalf by a Chinese government minister minutes after Putin’s address that “some country, obsessed with maintaining its hegemony, has gone out of its way to cripple the emerging markets and developing countries.”

“Whoever is developing fast becomes its target of containment. Whoever is catching up, becomes its target of obstructions,” Chinese Commerce Minister Wang Wentao said while delivering Xi’s speech.

It was a clear reference to the United States and the growing economic friction between the U.S. and China.

Xi is in South Africa for the summit and met with South African President Cyril Ramaphosa earlier Tuesday. He didn’t attend the opening-day business forum where the other three BRICS leaders gave their addresses in person and Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov represented his country. No reason was given for the Chinese leader’s absence.

However, Xi, Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Ramaphosa were all expected to meet over dinner at a luxury estate in suburban Johannesburg. Putin also planned to take part virtually, officials said.

The leaders were expected to discuss the top agenda point for the three-day summit, a possible expansion of BRICS. They are scheduled to reconvene for the summit’s main day of talks on Wednesday.

The five BRICS countries are already home to 40% of the world’s population and responsible for more than 30% of global economic output, and more than 20 nations have applied to join, according to South African officials, including Saudi Arabia, Iran and the United Arab Emirates.

Saudi Arabia’s foreign minister, Prince Faisal bin Farhan, and Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi planned to attend the summit.

The five current member countries will have to agree on the criteria for new members before any countries are admitted, but a bigger BRICS is seen as a policy favored by China and Russia amid those deteriorating relations with the West.

Brazil, Russia, India and China formed the bloc in 2009. South Africa was added in 2010.

“I am glad to note that over 20 countries are knocking on the door of BRICS. China hopes to see more joining the BRICS cooperation mechanism,” Wang said while giving Xi’s speech.

Overall, around 1,200 delegates from the five BRICS nations and dozens of other developing countries are in South Africa’s biggest city, and more than 40 heads of state were expected to take part in some of the summit meetings, according to Ramaphosa.

United Nations Secretary-General António Guterres also was expected to attend.

While summit host South Africa has pushed back at characterizations that BRICS is taking more of an anti-West turn under Russian and Chinese influence, it’s clearly a forum for growing discontent in the developing world with global institutions.

That unhappiness has been directed at bodies seen as Western-led, including the U.N., the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund, which many countries in the Global South feel do not serve their interests.

While in South Africa’s capital, Pretoria, earlier Tuesday for his meeting with Xi, Ramaphosa said he was seeking “Chinese support for South Africa and Africa’s call for the reform of global governance institutions, notably the United Nations Security Council.”

Africa and South America have no permanent representatives on the Security Council despite being home to nearly 2 billion people.

The U.S. and EU will be closely monitoring events in Johannesburg, with the long list of countries lining up to join BRICS suggesting that the bloc’s calls for a reorganization of the global governance structure might be hitting home with many.

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Sometime this summer, if President Vladimir Putin can be believed, Russia moved some of its short-range nuclear weapons into Belarus, closer to Ukraine and onto NATO’s doorstep.

The declared deployment of the Russian weapons on the territory of its neighbor and loyal ally marks a new stage in the Kremlin’s nuclear saber-rattling over its invasion of Ukraine and another bid to discourage the West from increasing military support to Kyiv.

Neither Putin nor his Belarusian counterpart, Alexander Lukashenko, said how many were moved — only that Soviet-era facilities in the country were readied to accommodate them, and that Belarusian pilots and missile crews were trained to use them.

The U.S. and NATO haven’t confirmed the move. NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg denounced Moscow’s rhetoric as “dangerous and reckless,” but said earlier this month the alliance hasn’t seen any change in Russia’s nuclear posture.

While some experts doubt the claims by Putin and Lukashenko, others note that Western intelligence might be unable to monitor such movement.

Earlier this month, CNN quoted U.S. intelligence officials as saying they had no reason to doubt Putin’s claim about the delivery of the first batch of the weapons to Belarus and noted it could be challenging for the U.S. to track them.

Unlike nuclear-tipped intercontinental ballistic missiles that can destroy entire cities, tactical nuclear weapons for use against troops on the battlefield can have a yield as small as about 1 kiloton. The U.S. bomb in Hiroshima in World War II was 15 kilotons.

The devices are compact: Used on bombs, missiles and artillery shells, they could be discreetly carried on a truck or plane. Aliaksandr Alesin, an independent Minsk-based military analyst, said the weapons use containers that emit no radiation and could have been flown into Belarus without Western intelligence seeing it.

“They easily fit in a regular Il-76 transport plane,” Alesin said. “There are dozens of flights a day, and it’s very difficult to track down that special flight. The Americans could fail to monitor it.”

Belarus has 25 underground facilities built during the Cold War for nuclear-tipped intermediate-range missiles that can withstand missile attacks, Alesin said. Only five or six such depots could actually store tactical nuclear weapons, he added, but the military operates at all of them to fool Western intelligence.

Early in the war, Putin referenced his nuclear arsenal by vowing repeatedly to use “all means” necessary to protect Russia. He has toned down his statements recently, but a top lieutenant continues to dangle the prospect with terrifying ease.

Dmitry Medvedev, the deputy head of Russia’s Security Council who served as a placeholder president in 2008-12 because Putin was term-limited, unleashes near-daily threats that Moscow won’t hesitate to use nuclear weapons.

In a recent article, Medvedev said “the apocalypse isn’t just possible but quite likely,” and the only way to avoid it is to bow to Russian demands.

The world faces a confrontation “far worse than during the Cuban missile crisis because our enemies have decided to really defeat Russia, the largest nuclear power,” he wrote.

Many Western observers dismiss that as bluster.

Putin seems to have dialed down his nuclear rhetoric after getting signals to do so from China, said Keir Giles, a Russia expert at Chatham House.

“The evident Chinese displeasure did have an effect and may have been accompanied by private messaging to Russia,” Giles told The Associated Press.

Moscow’s defense doctrine envisages a nuclear response to an atomic strike or even an attack with conventional weapons that “threaten the very existence of the Russian state.” That vague wording has led some Russian experts to urge the Kremlin to spell out those conditions in more detail and force the West to take the warnings more seriously.

“The possibility of using nuclear weapons in the current conflict mustn’t be concealed,” said Dmitry Trenin, who headed the Moscow Carnegie Center for 14 years before joining Moscow’s state-funded Institute for World Economy and International Relations.

“The real, not theoretical, perspective of it should create stimuli for stopping the escalation of the war and eventually set the stage for a strategic balance in Europe that would be acceptable to us,” he wrote recently.

Western beliefs that Putin is bluffing about using nuclear weapons “is an extremely dangerous delusion,” Trenin said.

Sergei Karaganov, a top Russian foreign affairs expert who advises Putin’s Security Council, said Moscow should make its nuclear threats more specific in order to “break the will of the West” and force it to stop supporting Ukraine as it seeks to reclaim Russian-held areas in a grinding counteroffensive.

“It’s necessary to restore the fear of nuclear escalation; otherwise mankind is doomed,” he said, suggesting Russia establish a “ladder” of accelerating actions.

Deploying nuclear weapons in Belarus was the first step, Karaganov said, with perhaps a follow-up of warning ethnic Russians in countries supporting Ukraine to evacuate areas near facilities that could be nuclear targets.

If that doesn’t work, Karaganov suggested a Russian nuclear strike on Poland, alleging Washington wouldn’t dare respond in kind to protect a NATO ally, for fear of igniting a global war.

“If we build the right strategy of intimidation and even the use of it, the risk of a retaliatory nuclear or any other strike on our territory could be reduced to a minimum,” he said. “Only if a madman who hates his own country sits in the White House would America risk to launch a strike ‘in the defense’ of the Europeans and draw a response, sacrificing Boston for Poznan.”

The Moscow-based Council of Foreign and Defense Policies, a panel of leading military and foreign policy experts that includes Karaganov, denounced his comments as “a direct threat to all of mankind.”

While pro-Kremlin analysts floated such scenarios, Lukashenko, the Belarusian leader, says hosting Russian nuclear weapons in his country is meant to deter aggression by Poland.

He claimed a number of nuclear weapons were flown to Belarus without Western intelligence noticing, with the rest coming later this year. Officials in Moscow and Minsk said the warheads could be carried by Belarusian Su-25 ground attack jets or fitted to short-range Iskander missiles.

Giles, of Chatham House, said the deployment was about “cementing Putin’s control over Belarus” and did not offer Moscow any military advantage over placing them in Russia’s Baltic exclave of Kaliningrad that borders Poland and Lithuania.

The West should recognize this as a ploy “that has far more to do with Russia’s ambitions for Belarus than any genuine impact on European security beyond that,” Giles said.

Some observers question whether the deployment to Belarus has even happened.

Miles Pomper, a senior fellow at the James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies at the Middlebury Institute, challenged Lukashenko’s claim that nuclear weapons were covertly flown to Belarus. They are normally moved by rail, he said, and there are no signs of “the support elements that you would see that would go with shipments of weapons.”

Others note Russia could have deployed the weapons without adhering to protocols used in the 1990s, when Moscow wanted to show the West its nuclear arsenal was secure amid economic and political turmoil.

Belarusian military analyst Valery Karbalevich said keeping such details secret could be a Kremlin strategy of “applying permanent pressure and blackmailing Ukraine and the West. The unknown scares more than certainty.”

Alesin, the Minsk-based analyst, argued that U.S. and NATO may play down the deployment of nuclear weapons to Belarus because they pose a threat the West finds difficult to counter.

“The Belarusian nuclear balcony will hang over a large part of Europe. But they prefer to pretend that there is no threat, and the Kremlin is just trying to scare the West,” he said.

If Putin decides to use nuclear weapons, he may do it from Belarus in hopes that a Western response would target that country instead of Russia, Alesin said.

The political opposition to Lukashenko warns that such a deployment turns Belarus into a hostage of the Kremlin.

While Lukashenko sees such weapons as a “nuclear umbrella” protecting the country, “they turn Belarus into a target,” said exiled opposition leader Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya, who tried to unseat the authoritarian leader in a 2020 election widely viewed as fraudulent.

“We are telling the world that preventative measures, political pressure and sanctions are needed to resist the deployment of nuclear weapons to Belarus,” she said. “Regrettably, we haven’t seen a strong Western reaction yet.”

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Russian President Vladimir Putin said he offered the Wagner private military company the option of continuing to serve as a single unit under their same commander after their short-lived rebellion, while some of the mercenaries were shown Friday in Belarus, possibly heralding the group’s relocation there.

Putin’s comments appeared to reflect his efforts to secure the loyalty of Wagner mercenaries, some of the most capable Russian forces in Ukraine, after the group’s brief revolt last month that posed the most serious threat to his 23-year rule.

The fate of Wagner chief Yevgeny Prigozhin remains unclear since the June 23-24 armed rebellion and new cracks have appeared in the Russian military as the war grinds through its 17th month and Ukraine presses a counteroffensive against the invading forces.

In remarks published Friday in the business daily Kommersant, Putin for the first time described a Kremlin event attended by 35 Wagner commanders, including Prigozhin, on June 29, five days after the rebellion. He said he praised their efforts in Ukraine, deplored their involvement in the mutiny — which he previously denounced as an act of treason — and offered them alternatives for future service.

Putin told Kommersant that one option would see Wagner keep the same commander who goes by the call sign “Gray Hair” and has led the private army in Ukraine for 16 months. The commander, Andrei Troshev, is a retired military officer who has played a leading role in Wagner since its creation in 2014 and faced European Union sanctions over his role in Syria as the group’s executive director.

“All of them could have gathered in one place and continued to serve,” Putin told the newspaper, “And nothing would have changed for them. They would have been led by the same person who had been their real commander all along.”

Putin said many Wagner troops nodded in approval at the proposal, but Prigozhin, who was sitting in front and didn’t see their reaction, quickly rejected it, responding that “the boys won’t agree with such a decision.”

Putin didn’t mention where and in what numbers Wagner could be deployed under his offer, or say what proposal the forces eventually accepted, if any. He said nothing about Prigozhin’s role.

Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov refused to elaborate on Wagner’s future while speaking with reporters Friday.

Putin has previously said Wagner troops had to choose whether to sign contracts with the Defense Ministry, move to neighboring Belarus or retire from service.

Speaking to Kommersant, Putin emphasized that “rank-and-file soldiers of Wagner have fought honorably” in Ukraine, adding that “it’s a cause for regret that they were drawn” into the mutiny.

Putin’s remarks were to a Kommersant reporter who has special access to the president. They appeared to be part of efforts to denigrate Prigozhin while trying to maintain control over Wagner mercenaries and secure their loyalty.

Putin previously denied any links between the government and Wagner, and acknowledged after the mutiny that Prigozhin’s company has received billions of dollars from the state. He noted that investigators would probe whether any of the funds had been stolen, a warning to Prigozhin that he could face financial crimes.

State-controlled media have posted videos and photos of Prigozhin’s opulent mansion in St. Petersburg, including stacks of cash, gold bars and fake passports. The images appeared to be part of a smear campaign against the Wagner chief, who has portrayed himself as an enemy of corrupt elites even though he owes his wealth to Putin.

Putin also said Wagner has operated without legal basis.

“There is no law on private military organizations. It simply doesn’t exist,” he told Kommersant, adding that the government and the parliament have yet to discuss the issue of private military contractors.

In the revolt that lasted less than 24 hours, Prigozhin’s mercenaries quickly swept through the southern Russian city of Rostov-on-Don and captured the military headquarters there without firing a shot, before driving to within about 200 kilometers (125 miles) of Moscow. Prigozhin called it a “march of justice” to oust Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu and General Staff chief Gen. Valery Gerasimov, who demanded that Wagner sign contracts with the Defense Ministry by July 1.

The mutiny faced little resistance and fighters downed at least six military helicopters and a command post aircraft, killing at least 10 airmen. Prigozhin ordered his mercenaries back to their camps after striking a deal to end the rebellion in exchange for an amnesty for him and his men, and permission to move to Belarus.

Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko, who brokered the deal, has said Prigozhin was in Russia while Wagner’s troops were in their field camps. He didn’t specify the camps’ location but Prigozhin’s mercenaries fought alongside Russian forces in eastern Ukraine before their revolt and also have bases in Russia.

Lukashenko said his military could benefit from the private army’s combat experience, and Belarusian state TV broadcast video Friday of Wagner instructors training Belarusian territorial defense forces at a firing range near Asipovichy, where a camp offered to Wagner is located. A Belarusian messaging app channel alleged Prigozhin spent a night at the camp this week and posted a photo of him in a tent.

The Belarusian Defense Ministry didn’t say how many Wagner troops were in Belarus or specify if more will follow. Lukashenko has previously said it was up to Prigozhin and Moscow to decide on a move to Belarus. The Kremlin has refrained from comment.

Pentagon press secretary Brig. Gen. Pat Ryder said most mercenaries have remained in Russian-occupied areas of Ukraine, but added that “at this stage, we do not see Wagner forces participating in any significant capacity in support of combat operations in Ukraine.”

While the fate of Prigozhin remains cloudy, the Defense Ministry said Wednesday that Wagner was completing the handover of its weapons to the Russian military. That appeared to show attempts by Russian authorities to defuse the threat posed by the mercenaries and also seemed to herald an end to the group’s operations in Ukraine.

At the same time, new fissures have emerged in the military command. Maj. Gen. Ivan Popov, commander of the 58th army in the Zaporizhzhia region, a focal point in Ukraine’s counteroffensive, said he was dismissed after speaking out about problems faced by his troops in what he described as a “treacherous” stab in the back.

Peskov, the Kremlin spokesman, refused to comment on Popov’s remarks, referring questions to the Defense Ministry that also hasn’t commented.

In the latest fighting, Ukraine said it shot down 16 Iranian-made Shahed drones launched overnight from Russia’s southern Krasnodar region. The presidential administration said at least four civilians were killed and 10 wounded since Thursday.

In southern Russia, three drones were destroyed late Thursday while approaching the city of Voronezh, regional Gov. Alexander Gusev said, adding there were no injuries or damage.

A drone also crashed and exploded in Kurchatov, where the Kursk nuclear power plant is located, without causing any damage to key facilities, said regional Gov. Roman Starovoit.

And three people were wounded when a car exploded in a residential area of Belgorod, near the Ukraine border, according to regional Gov. Vyacheslav Gladkov.

Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba responded to suggestions this week by British Defense Minister Ben Wallace that Ukraine could show more “gratitude” for Western military aid. The remark was an “unfortunate misunderstanding on the part of the British minister,” Kuleba said.

“No one has any reason to accuse us of any ingratitude. But the truth is that, sorry, we are at war,” he said. “When we win, then I will say, ‘thank you, the weapons were enough,’ but while the struggle continues, the weapons are not enough.”

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Lolita C. Baldor in Washington and Yuras Karmanau in Tallinn, Estonia, contributed.

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