A recent statewide survey shows five leading candidates separated by only a few percentage points. Former Rep. Katie Porter, Rep. Eric Swalwell and businessman Tom Steyer are currently among the most visible Democratic contenders. On the Republican side, commentator Steve Hilton and Riverside County Sheriff Chad Bianco are polling near the top.

Poll analysts say voter anxiety over housing costs, inflation and overall affordability is shaping the race. A strong majority of likely voters identified cost-of-living issues as a top concern when choosing a candidate, with younger voters especially focused on economic pressures.

Support levels among the top candidates remain tightly clustered. Hilton and Porter are polling in the low-to-mid teens, with Bianco, Swalwell and Steyer close behind. No other candidate has broken into double digits, and roughly one in 10 voters remains undecided.

Under California’s top-two primary system, the two highest vote-getters in June advance to November, regardless of party affiliation. With multiple prominent Democrats in the race, some party observers have expressed concern about vote-splitting potentially benefiting Republican candidates. California has not elected a Republican to statewide office in nearly two decades.

Political observers note that few candidates in the race have broad statewide name recognition. Porter and Swalwell have built visibility through media appearances, while Steyer has invested heavily in television advertising. Analysts suggest that in a state where one party dominates statewide elections, voter familiarity with candidates can be limited until late in the campaign.

San José Mayor Matt Mahan, who entered the race earlier this year, is also drawing attention. Though currently polling in the single digits, he has secured significant financial backing from business and technology leaders. His campaign and supporting committees have launched statewide advertising efforts aimed at increasing name recognition.

Mahan has recently focused on wildfire recovery and rebuilding efforts in Southern California, arguing for stronger coordination between state and federal officials.

Beyond the governor’s race, voters will also weigh in on congressional contests that could influence control of the U.S. House of Representatives. A recent redistricting effort reshaped the boundaries of California’s 52 congressional districts following voter approval of a ballot measure last year.

The survey also found strong support among likely voters for Democratic congressional candidates and majority backing for a proposed tax targeting billionaire assets to fund healthcare programs.

With several months remaining before the primary, the governor’s race remains competitive and unpredictable. Analysts expect campaign spending, debates and voter turnout to play decisive roles as candidates work to distinguish themselves in a crowded field.

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Sheriff Bianco is wrong about crime – in fact, California Department of Justice figures show crime rates are much lower today than before major criminal justice reforms began in the early 2010s. He’s even more wrong about what’s behind public and legislative concerns about crime, including an initiative proposal falsely blaming Prop. 47’s reforms for retail crimes like shoplifting.

Prop. 47 and other reforms are not the problem. The problem is the wholesale tanking of law enforcement efficiency in solving crimes and making arrests (a trend that began long before reforms took effect), led by Sheriff Bianco’s extraordinarily inefficient sheriff’s department. Sheriff Bianco and other outspoken critics are scapegoating Prop. 47 for their own costly incompetence.

The Riverside County Sheriff’s Department is leaving most serious crimes unsolved despite its ballooning budget, which topped half a billion dollars in 2022. During that time, the department’s staff grew by 2,000 personnel, costing county residents twice as much per person compared to 1990 (in constant, inflation-adjusted 2022 dollars). 

Yet in 2022, the Riverside County sheriff cleared (solved) just 8.3% of the felony violent and property crimes reported to it. This is less than half its 1990 solve rate (17.7%) and well below most other California sheriffs’ rates today (15.9%). 

The Riverside County Sheriff’s department’s dismal history:

• In 1990, the Riverside County sheriff, with 1,815 employees (including 1,771 sworn non-jail deputies), received $130 million in funding, or $111 for each county resident; investigated 25,334 reported Part I violent and property offenses; and solved 4,183, or 17.7%, of reported crimes.
• In 2010, the year before the criminal justice reforms Sheriff Bianco lambastes, the Riverside County sheriff, with 3,805 employees (1,686 sworn non-jail), received $477 million in funding, or $217 per county resident; investigated 11,328 Part I offenses; and solved just 997, or 8.8%.
• In 2022, the Riverside County sheriff, with 3,953 employees (including 1,580 sworn non-jail deputies), received $554 million in funding, or $228 per county resident; investigated 8,449 reported Part I offenses (just one-third as many as in 1990); and cleared only 698 offenses (a staggering 83% fewer than in 1990). 

These patterns of rising law enforcement budgets and falling crime-solving are occurring throughout California. We recently reported on these statewide trends, finding that law enforcement jurisdictions are spending an average of 52% more, but solving crime at a rate that’s 41% below 1990 levels. That’s all despite significant drops in the number of crimes that need to be solved. 

Even by today’s low bar for law enforcement crime-solving, the Riverside County Sheriff’s Department stands out as among the worst law enforcement agencies in California.

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