The early results pointed to a strong night for Democrats, a rough showing for wealthy self-funded candidates and mixed fortunes for state lawmakers seeking higher office. They also underscored the continued influence of President Donald Trump in California politics, even in a state where Democrats dominate most statewide contests.

In the race for governor, Republican Steve Hilton, a former Fox News host and British-born political adviser, and longtime Democratic officeholder Xavier Becerra held the top two spots needed to advance to the November election. Billionaire Tom Steyer, a former hedge fund executive and major liberal donor, was trailing in third place, though still close enough that the final result was not yet settled. The Associated Press had not called the race.

Veteran California election watchers cautioned that the final count in a June primary can take weeks. Still, several takeaways were already emerging.

Massive personal spending did not guarantee success.

Steyer spent nearly $250 million of his own fortune on a populist-themed campaign for governor. Even if he ultimately moves into the top two, the result would fall well short of the overwhelming breakthrough that such a record-setting investment was intended to produce.

Garry South, a longtime Democratic strategist in California, said heavy self-funding can become a liability when voters are saturated with campaign advertising.

Steyer was not alone. Patrick Wolff put $600,000 of his own money into a campaign for insurance commissioner. Yvonne Yiu spent $750,000 on her bid for the State Board of Equalization. Saikat Chakrabarti financed much of the multimillion-dollar effort behind his campaign to succeed Nancy Pelosi in Congress. In Los Angeles, Zach Sokoloff spent $1 million of his own money, with millions more from his mother, in an effort to unseat the city controller.

Chakrabarti failed to make the top two, losing out to state Sen. Scott Wiener and San Francisco Supervisor Connie Chan. As of Wednesday morning, the other self-funded candidates were also trailing in their races.

The results were better for more traditional Democrats.

Although anti-establishment politics remains a national force, California voters appeared willing to back experienced Democratic officeholders. Andrew Sinclair, a political science professor at Claremont McKenna College, said Democratic voters seemed to be looking for candidates who could take on Trump.

That helped explain Becerra’s rise after the political collapse of former front-runner Eric Swalwell. Like Swalwell, Becerra brought years of experience in public office and a clear record of opposition to Trump. Sinclair described Becerra as a conventional Democrat who fits the moment for voters focused on fighting Republicans.

Steyer’s status as a billionaire also gave opponents an easy line of attack. And Democrats worried about being shut out of the general election appeared inclined to consolidate behind the candidate polling strongest.

Several Democratic members of Congress also appeared to be holding off younger, more progressive challengers, or at least keeping them in second place. That group included Mike Thompson, Brad Sherman and Doris Matsui.

Party labels continued to matter.

California adopted its top-two primary system in 2010, with supporters arguing it would reduce partisan gridlock by placing all candidates on the same ballot and allowing the two highest vote-getters to advance, regardless of party. The idea was to encourage candidates with broader appeal to the political center.

But statewide governor’s races have continued to follow a familiar partisan pattern. Despite speculation in past years about two Democrats advancing, including the possibility of Gavin Newsom facing Antonio Villaraigosa in 2018 or Becerra facing Steyer this year, California’s gubernatorial general elections have continued to feature one Democrat and one Republican.

The same pattern appeared likely in the races for lieutenant governor and treasurer, where Democrats and Republicans held the top two positions. The main exception, as of Wednesday, was the race for insurance commissioner, where Democrats Jane Kim and state Sen. Ben Allen appeared positioned to advance to November.

Democrats avoided their feared lockout scenario.

For months, party leaders worried that a crowded Democratic field for governor could split the vote and allow two Republicans — Hilton and Riverside County Sheriff Chad Bianco — to claim the top two spots.

That possibility prompted state Democratic Party Chair Rusty Hicks to commission polling in an effort to pressure lower-polling Democratic candidates to leave the race. Almost none did.

Whether Democratic voters strategically rallied to prevent that outcome, or whether the threat was never as serious as feared, the lockout now appears unlikely.

California Democrats have faced similar anxieties before. In 2018, crowded Democratic congressional primaries raised concerns that Republicans could capture both general election spots in competitive districts. That did not happen, and Democrats went on to make major gains in the general election. Democrats also worried during the gubernatorial recall election that a procedural misstep might help Republicans take the governorship. Gov. Gavin Newsom ultimately defeated the recall by a wide margin.

One of the most notable top-two surprises in recent years came in a conservative state Senate district in the Sierra Nevada foothills in 2022, when a crowded Republican field split the vote and allowed two Democrats to advance. The winner, Sen. Marie Alvarado-Gil, later switched parties and joined the Republicans. As of early Wednesday, she was running third in her reelection campaign behind Democrat Jaron Brandon and Republican Alexandra Duarte.

State legislative credentials did not always travel well.

Anthony Rendon, the former speaker of the California Assembly, was once among the most powerful officials in state government. But that influence did not translate into success in the largely nonpartisan race for state superintendent of public instruction. As of Wednesday, Rendon was in fourth place.

State Sen. Anna Caballero, a Merced Democrat who once led the influential Senate Appropriations Committee, was trailing badly in her campaign for treasurer, behind Lt. Gov. Eleni Kounalakis and Republican Jennifer Hawks. Assemblymember Jasmeet Bains, a moderate Democrat, was also behind in her effort to challenge Republican Rep. David Valadao in the Central Valley, with college professor Randy Villegas, backed by Sen. Bernie Sanders, holding second place. Former state Sen. Steven Bradford was in eighth place in the insurance commissioner race.

There were successes for some state lawmakers. Allen was in second place for insurance commissioner, while Wiener and state Sen. Aisha Wahab, both Bay Area Democrats, were leading comfortably in their congressional races.

Original source: CalMatters

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The contest will determine who advances in the race to replace Gov. Gavin Newsom, who is leaving office at the end of the year because of term limits. Results are expected to begin arriving Tuesday night, though the final count could take days or weeks as counties process ballots.

The election comes as Californians confront a long list of urgent problems: high housing and living costs, some of the nation’s highest gasoline prices, wildfire threats that have shaken the insurance market, uncertainty in the state budget, expected federal cuts to California’s health care programs and economic disruption tied to immigration enforcement.

Former California Attorney General Xavier Becerra, a Democrat who also served as U.S. Health and Human Services secretary, entered Election Day as the leading Democrat in late polling. Becerra has campaigned on pledges to confront President Donald Trump’s administration and to freeze insurance and utility rates. He also has drawn support from much of the Democratic establishment.

Republican Steve Hilton, a former Fox News host endorsed by Trump, was polling in second place before Election Day after consolidating conservative support. Hilton has promised to reduce income taxes and roll back environmental rules.

But billionaire climate activist Tom Steyer, a progressive Democrat who has poured $213 million of his own money into the race, remained in contention for one of the two general election spots. Late polls showed Becerra with support from about one-quarter of likely voters, while Steyer and Hilton were in a close fight for second place.

Election analysts said the uncertainty among Democratic voters may have affected the final days of voting, with some waiting to see which candidate appeared best positioned to advance.

“Those polls could become self-fulfilling,” said Paul Mitchell, a Democratic strategist whose firm tracks ballot returns.

The governor’s race is the top statewide contest on Tuesday’s ballot. Democrats are heavily favored in November in a state where they hold nearly twice as many voter registrations as Republicans. Still, the race carries national weight as California remains a major center of Democratic resistance to the Trump administration.

The field has been unusually wide open by California standards. Unlike past contests shaped by celebrity candidates, political dynasties or dominant statewide figures, no clear Democratic star entered the race. That left a crowded Democratic field and, for a time, raised concern among party leaders that two Republicans could potentially finish first and second under California’s top-two primary system.

That possibility was driven in part by Hilton and Riverside County Sheriff Chad Bianco, a Republican whose campaign drew attention across the Inland Empire and beyond. State Democratic leaders publicly urged lower-polling Democratic candidates to leave the race, but most remained.

The Democratic field shifted when then-Rep. Eric Swalwell dropped out after multiple sexual assault allegations. Becerra benefited from the opening, gaining many of Swalwell’s donors and supporters and rising in polls in the final stretch. Steyer, meanwhile, used heavy advertising to boost his name recognition and appeal to the party’s progressive wing.

Former Rep. Katie Porter, another progressive Democrat, lost ground after allegations about her temperament became a political liability. San Jose Mayor Matt Mahan, a moderate supported by Silicon Valley billionaires, improved from single digits in polling but did not appear to gain enough traction to break into the top tier.

On the Republican side, Trump’s endorsement helped Hilton separate himself from Bianco, reducing the likelihood that two Republicans would advance to November. If Hilton makes the general election, he would face a difficult path in heavily Democratic California.

In the closing weeks, both Hilton and Steyer tried to frame Becerra as the candidate of the political establishment, arguing that California needs dramatic change to address affordability and other crises.

Hilton has centered his campaign on ending what he describes as 16 years of Democratic control in Sacramento. His agenda includes cutting state spending and reversing major liberal policies, including climate mandates, the progressive tax structure and parts of the social safety net.

“After 16 years of everything being in one direction, that’s left a lot of people dissatisfied,” Hilton said last week. “Anybody who wants change or balance in our politics, the only choice is for me.”

Hilton’s years as a television commentator gave him a built-in audience among conservative voters. Nancy LeVesque, a retired salesperson from Roseville, said she already admired Hilton before he ran and considered him an easy choice when she dropped off her ballot Monday at a vote center in Placer County. She said she sees him as an outsider who could change the direction of a state that, in her view, has pushed too many residents away.

“We have lost so many good people” to other states, she said.

Steyer has campaigned as a wealthy progressive willing to challenge powerful industries. He has described himself as a “class traitor” and pledged to lower costs by taking on investor-owned utilities, real estate interests and health insurance companies. His platform includes aggressive climate policies, single-payer health care and higher taxes on the wealthy.

Tina Varnado, a South Sacramento resident and undecided voter, attended a Steyer rally last week hosted by her union, which represents home health aides. Varnado works as a full-time caregiver for her elderly mother and for her adult daughter, who had open-heart surgery. Between her mother’s Social Security benefits and Varnado’s wages as her daughter’s health aide, she said her family spends nearly everything it earns each month just to get by.

“Everything he touched on really touched home for me,” Varnado said after Steyer’s speech. “If we can lower prices, maybe we can start putting money down on a home for my future.”

Becerra has leaned heavily on his decades in public office, including his record as California attorney general, his lawsuits against Trump’s first administration and his leadership at the federal health agency during the COVID-19 pandemic.

That experience helped him win support from groups such as the California Young Democrats, which endorsed him before his recent rise in the polls. Evan Cragin, a member of the organization, said he wants a governor who knows how to use government power to challenge federal actions.

“Secretary Becerra has done that before,” Cragin said.

Speaking Monday at the offices of Planned Parenthood Affiliates of California, Becerra argued that campaign promises mean little without the experience to deliver. He pointed to his work on the Affordable Care Act and his defense of the Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals program as examples of his record.

“You can have all these great inflated promises,” he said. “Getting things done is not easy.”

Original source: CalMatters

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