The countywide jobless rate in March, based on preliminary EDD estimates, was 5.1%, compared to 5.4% in February.

According to figures, the March rate equaled the year-ago level, when countywide unemployment also stood at 5.1%.

EDD posted its most recent data outside of the agency’s usual schedule due to an annual statistical revision process done in concert with the U.S. Department of Labor known as “benchmarking,” which is intended to improve the accuracy of results. The process will wrap up this month, at which point jobless numbers for the last year will be fully updated and available.

The latest agency estimates indicated that Cherry Valley had the highest unemployment rate within the county during March at 9.5%, followed by Blythe at 9.4%, Coachella at 7.7%, Rancho Mirage and March Air Reserve Base, each at 7.5%, and Cabazon and Hemet, each at 7.1%.

The combined unemployment rate for Riverside and San Bernardino counties — the Inland Empire — was also 5.1%, down from 5.3% in February, the EDD said.

Bi-county data indicated that payrolls expanded by the widest margin in healthcare services, where 6,400 positions were added in March.

Additional gains were recorded in the agricultural, construction, information technology and public sectors, which altogether grew by an aggregate 3,500 positions, figures showed. Miscellaneous unclassified industries similarly posted an increase of 200 jobs.

Payrolls declined by the largest amount in the broad category designated trade, transportation and utilities, where an estimated 2,600 jobs were lost in March, mainly in warehousing. The financial services, hospitality, manufacturing and professional business services sectors sank by a total 2,500 positions, according to EDD.

The mining sector was unchanged.

The statewide non-seasonally-adjusted unemployment rate in March was 5.2%.

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The unemployment rate in Riverside County declined marginally through the winter season amid a mix of payroll losses and gains, according to figures released Friday by the California Employment Development Department.

The countywide jobless rate in February, based on preliminary EDD estimates, was 5.4%, compared to 5.5% in January.

According to figures, the February rate was two-tenths of a percentage point above the year-ago level, when countywide unemployment stood at 5.2%.

EDD posted the data outside of its usual schedule due to an annual statistical revision process done in concert with the U.S. Department of Labor known as “benchmarking,” which is intended to improve accuracy of results. The process will wrap up toward the end of the month, at which point jobless numbers will be fully updated.

The latest agency estimates indicated that Cherry Valley had the highest unemployment rate within the county in February at 10%, followed by Blythe at 9.8%, Coachella at 8.1%, Rancho Mirage at 7.9% and March Air Reserve Base at 7.8%

The combined unemployment rate for Riverside and San Bernardino counties — the Inland Empire — was 5.3%, down from 5.4% in January, the EDD stated.

Bi-county data indicated that payrolls contracted by the widest margin in the broad category designated trade, transportation and utilities, where 7,700 positions were lost, mainly in logistics and warehousing.

Additional losses were recorded in the agricultural, financial services, health services, manufacturing and public sectors, which altogether shed an aggregate 7,000 positions, figures showed.

Payroll gains were recorded in the construction, hospitality and professional business services sectors, which expanded by a total 1,500 jobs, while miscellaneous unclassified industries added another 100.

The mining and information technology sectors were unchanged.

The statewide non-seasonally adjusted unemployment rate in February was 5.5%.

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Between January and February, the Inland Empire lost 6,200 nonfarm jobs—a 0.4% decline in total employment. This is a notable reversal from the region’s typical trajectory: over the last five years, the Inland Empire has added more than 10,500 jobs on average during the same period. Sectors that traditionally show modest growth this time of year, such as construction, accommodation and food services, and transportation and warehousing, instead posted net losses.

The warehousing and storage subsector—long a dominant force in the region’s employment landscape—was the primary contributor to this contraction. It lost 6,400 jobs in February alone, a 5% month-over-month decrease. This downturn significantly exceeds the five-year historical average, where job losses in the sector have hovered closer to 1,800. The data points to a deeper shift in the regional logistics economy, which may be grappling with changes in global supply chains, rising automation, and shifts in consumer behavior post-pandemic.

Retail trade and construction also reported notable job losses, falling by 1,700 and 600 positions respectively. In contrast, sectors such as private educational services and health care and social assistance continued to expand, adding 1,100 and 1,200 jobs, respectively—underscoring persistent demand in these essential service industries.

According to Inland Empire Growth and Opportunity (IEGO), these trends highlight the need to align workforce development with evolving industry demand. While the Inland Empire has become a national model for apprenticeship and skills-based training programs, the latest data underscores the importance of accelerating those efforts. IEGO notes that the region’s ability to remain competitive will depend on expanding access to quality employment pathways in health care, clean logistics, and advanced manufacturing—sectors positioned for long-term growth.

“Employers continue to add jobs. The number of people starting to look for work continues to increase. We know the apprenticeship model works—for both employers and workers,” said Matt Mena, Executive Director of IEGO. “While the Inland Empire is a leader in apprenticeship innovation and expansion, we can do more to increase the quality, access, and impact of our region’s apprenticeship programs.”

Also noteworthy is the labor force contraction of 2,100 individuals in February—people who either moved out of the region or stopped actively seeking work. This decrease brings the total civilian labor force in Riverside and San Bernardino counties to 2.231 million, and may explain why the unemployment rate remained flat despite widespread job losses. In short, fewer people looking for work offsets the losses in payroll jobs.

While February’s employment report deviates from historic norms, it also provides a timely reminder of the structural changes shaping the Inland Empire’s economy. Regional leaders have an opportunity to respond with targeted investment in workforce retraining, sectoral partnerships, and job quality initiatives that meet the moment. The numbers reflect more than just a temporary setback—they represent a broader transition and call for strategic action.

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RIVERSIDE COUNTY, CA — Riverside County’s unemployment rate dropped back below 5% last month amid payroll gains across most sectors of the regional economy, according to figures released Friday by the California Employment Development Department.

The countywide jobless rate in April, based on preliminary EDD estimates, was 4.9%, compared to 5.2% in March.

The last time the county’s rate registered below 5% was in June.

According to data, the April rate was a full percentage point above the year-ago level, when countywide unemployment stood at 3.9%.

Mecca had the highest unemployment rate countywide in April at 11.8%, followed by Cherry Valley at 8.8%, Coachella at 8.4%, Rancho Mirage and Hemet each at 6.9%, and East Hemet at 6.7%.

The combined unemployment rate for Riverside and San Bernardino counties — the Inland Empire — in April was 4.8%, down from 5.1% in March, the EDD said.

Bi-county data indicated that payrolls expanded by the widest margin in the public sector, mainly in the regional education system, with an estimated 1,500 jobs added.

Additional gains were recorded in the financial services, health services, hospitality, manufacturing and transportation sectors, which altogether grew by 2,600 jobs, according to the EDD.

Miscellaneous unclassified industries also showed payroll growth, totaling about 500 positions.

The agricultural, construction, information technology and professional business services sectors compressed last month, shedding a total 2,300 positions.

Only the mining sector was unchanged, the EDD said.

The statewide non-seasonally-adjusted unemployment rate in April was 4.8%.

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We can get the national analysis out of the way: There was a higher than expected increase in the employment numbers (275,000) while the even higher initially released January numbers were revised downwards to more reasonable levels (229,000). Yes, the unemployment rate did increase from 3.7% to 3.9%, but that was due to healthy employment growth being outpaced by an even larger increase in the labor force.

Since then, the inflation numbers have also been published, and while they did not improve further and by the magnitude we’d hoped for, the U.S. economy continues to be on a path for a soft landing (reducing inflation rates to 2% without creating a recession).

This is important, because the Federal Reserve would be less likely to lower interest rates during summer if the job market was as hot as initially estimated and inflation remains sticky above the 2% target. The central bank left interest rates unchanged after its meeting last week, but indicated it is close to start lowering the interest rates as policy makers become confident that “it will be appropriate to dial back.” Chairman Jerome Powell said they were “not far from it.” As the UCLA Anderson Forecast put it in its most recent report, we are on a path to normalcy.

Now let us focus on our state and region. For the Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario Metropolitan Statistical Area, some of the annual revisions were substantial. In the Inland Empire, the Logistics industry lost significantly more jobs (some 5,000 depending on which month you focus on) since last summer than originally assumed and shows a steeper downward trend. On the other hand, Education and Health Services has gained more jobs than previously thought, roughly 10,000 more and the numbers are trending upward, confirming it as the sector with the largest share of labor in the Inland Empire.

The headline news for the Inland Empire is that the unemployment rate jumped up by half percentage points, increasing significantly from 5.0% to 5.5%. Since the Inland Empire’s economy is often described as “first in, last out,” shall we take this as the first sign of the national economy tanking after all, resulting in a “hard landing” (decrease in inflation coinciding with a recession)?

The initially bleak picture is simply an artifact of the data, generated by regularly occurring seasonal patterns. Without getting too technical, we will try to convince you that you should look at seasonally adjusted data rather than the raw data from the EDD. While for some months the difference is negligible, in January it is particularly high, since there are layoffs every year due to the post-holiday season. It is not surprising that the largest raw data (non-seasonally adjusted) employment losses for the Inland Empire came in Retail Trade, Logistics, and Leisure and Hospitality. Filtering out these effects is important since they give a misleading picture of the underlying economy. Total employment reported did not go down 32,300 (which would represent an alarming 2%); instead, it went up by 4,850.

The increase in employment reported by households (+9,100) aligned with the increase in establishment employment (+4,850). Residency measured employment increased by more than what establishments reported. This is probably due to commuters, most of whom work in the coastal areas. The employment status of these commuters is reported by households in the region, not by establishments. This means that significant job growth among commuters could explain the difference for January.

Let us get more specific. Compared to the bleak picture painted by the raw establishment data (decreases of -8,200 in Retail Trade, -7,400 in Logistics, -6,500 in Professional and Business Services, and -3,700 in Leisure and Hospitality), the numbers we get after accounting for seasonal patterns are more positive. The biggest decrease was seen in Professional and Business Services (almost -1,200), at only roughly a fifth of what non-seasonally adjusted data indicated. For Retail Trade (-500), Logistics (+250), and Leisure and Hospitality (-700) numbers also look less worrisome. Bottom line: Do not make major decisions based on non-seasonally adjusted data.

Applying standard statistical techniques to remove seasonal regularities results in the (seasonally adjusted) unemployment rate actually falling by 0.1 percentage points from 5.7% to 5.6% in the Inland Empire.

The change came in the healthiest way possible: through a simultaneous increase in employment and labor force, the former outpacing the latter (+9,100 and +6,200, respectively). After six consecutive months of increases in the civilian unemployment rate, this is encouraging. The result holds despite the fact we only observed significant employment increases during three months in 2023.

The Inland Empire will need more time to recover from the very concerning decreases of 12,800 for the labor force and 13,600 for employment observed between November and December. Despite this, the Inland Empire continues to be the poster child of the economic recovery from the COVID-19 recession,. While we will continue to see some structural adjustment between the industries of the region, we are on a positive path as far as the economy is concerned.

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