With coronavirus cases rising in parts of Europe and Asia, scientists worry that an extra-contagious version of the omicron variant may soon push cases up in the United States too.

Experts are also keeping their eyes on another mutant: a rare delta-omicron hybrid that they say doesn’t pose much of a threat right now but shows how wily the coronavirus can be.

The U.S. will likely see an uptick in cases caused by the omicron descendant BA.2 starting in the next few weeks, according to Dr. Eric Topol, head of Scripps Research Translational Institute.

“It’s inevitable we will see a BA.2 wave here,” he said.

One reason? After about two months of falling COVID-19 cases, pandemic restrictions have been lifted across the U.S. Many people are taking off their masks and returning to indoor spaces like restaurants and theaters.

And the latest data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention shows the share caused by BA.2 is up significantly. The CDC reported Tuesday that the variant accounted for about 35% of new infections last week. In the Northeast, it was about half.

Dr. Anthony Fauci, the U.S. government’s top infectious disease expert, told ABC’s “This Week” over the weekend that he also thinks the U.S. will likely face an “uptick” similar to what’s happening in Europe, particularly the United Kingdom, where BA.2 is the dominant strain. He said he doesn’t think it will be a “surge.”

The U.K. has “had the same situation as we’ve had now,” Fauci said. “They have BA.2. They have a relaxation of some restrictions such as indoor masking and there’s a waning of immunity” from vaccines and past infections.

Keri Althoff, a researcher at Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, cautioned that CDC case counts underestimate the true numbers because some people are no longer getting tested and others are testing at home and not reporting the results. Also, she said, not every specimen is genetically sequenced to determine the variant.

It’s clear, she said, “BA.2 is coming onto the scene.”

One reason the variant has gained ground, scientists say, is that it’s about 30% more contagious than the original omicron. In rare cases, research shows it can sicken people even if they’ve already had an omicron infection — although it doesn’t seem to cause more severe disease.

Vaccines appear just as effective against both types of omicron, but breakthrough infections are possible. And experts point out that vaccination rates are lower in the U.S. than the U.K. About 74% of those 12 and older are fully vaccinated in the U.S, compared with 86% in the U.K.

”We need to emphasize that we’re not protected in this country compared to peer countries,” Topol said.

Still, not all experts are equally concerned about a BA.2-related rise in U.S. cases. Dr. James Musser, head of genomic medicine and infectious diseases at Houston Methodist, said the variant has so far only caused about 1% to 3% of cases in his medical system. Cases there have usually tracked closely with what’s happening in the U.K.

He called BA.2 “something we’re keeping an eye on,” but said, “I’m not losing sleep” over it.

That’s how many scientists view the other variant that some in the public are calling “deltacron,” a hybrid containing genetic information from both delta and omicron.

Earlier this month, Maria Van Kerkhove of the World Health Organization said the hybrid has been detected at “very low levels” in France, the Netherlands and Denmark. And two recent studies, which have not yet been peer-reviewed, point to a tiny number of cases in the U.S.

Much remains unknown about the hybrid. There’s no evidence it causes more severe disease, and it doesn’t look like it’s infecting many people. CDC researchers identified 9 samples, seven from the mid-Atlantic region in a study released Monday that hasn’t yet been peer-reviewed. Topol, who was not involved in the research, said there’s no evidence it has the potential to spread.

It’s common for coronaviruses to shuffle gene segments, said Dr. Stuart Campbell Ray, an infectious disease expert at Johns Hopkins University. With two variants circulating at the same time, people may get double infections, and a “progeny virus” could emerge.

Given the virus’ ability to spawn new mutants — and the rise of BA.2 — experts say people should get vaccinated if they’re not and keep their masks handy.

“Keep your guard up,” Topol said. “This is not over.”

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WASHINGTON (AP) — A person in California who had been vaccinated against COVID-19 became the first in the U.S. to have an identified case of the omicron variant, the White House announced Wednesday as scientists continue to study the risks posed by the new virus strain.

Dr. Anthony Fauci told reporters that the person was a traveler who returned from South Africa on Nov. 22 and tested positive on Nov. 29. Fauci said the person was vaccinated but had not received a booster shot and was experiencing “mild symptoms.”

The Biden administration moved late last month to restrict travel from Southern Africa where the variant was first identified and had been widespread. Clusters of cases have also been identified in about two dozen other nations.

“We knew that it was just a matter of time before the first case of omicron would be detected in the United States,” Fauci said.

Officials said they had contacted everyone who had close contact with the person and they had all tested negative.

Genomic sequencing was conducted at the University of California, San Francisco and the sequence was confirmed by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention is taking steps to tighten U.S. testing rules for travelers from overseas, including requiring a test for all travelers within a day of boarding a flight to the U.S. regardless of vaccination status. It was also considering mandating post-arrival testing.

Officials said those measures would only “buy time” for the country to learn more about the new variant and to take appropriate precautions, but that given its transmissibility its arrival in the U.S. was inevitable.

Much remains unknown about the new variant, including whether it is more contagious than previous strains, whether it makes people more seriously ill, and whether it can thwart the vaccine. Fauci, the top U.S. infectious disease expert, said more would be known about the omicron strain in two to four weeks as scientists grow and test lab samples of the virus.

The announcement of the first U.S. case comes before President Joe Biden plans to outline his strategy on Thursday to combat the virus over the winter. Biden has tried to quell alarm over the omicron variant, saying it was a cause for concern but “not a cause for panic.”

Biden and public health officials have grown more urgent in their pleas for more Americans to get vaccinated — and for those who have been vaccinated to get booster shots to maximize their protection against the virus.

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Nearly two years after the emergence of the virus that causes COVID-19, a variant of the virus called Omicron is raising concerns around the world. Transmission checked in with some of Columbia Mailman School’s top experts in virology, emerging infectious diseases, epidemiology, and the global response to pandemics to answer questions about the variant, including its potential risks and what we can do to protect ourselves.

WHAT IS OMICRON?

Omicron (pronounced ah·me·kraan) is the thirteenth variant of SARS-CoV-2, the coronavirus that causes COVID-19, named by the World Health Organization, using a Greek letter naming scheme. It is the fourth variant designated by the WHO as a “variant of concern” after Delta, which is currently responsible for most cases and deaths around the world. Delta, which is more than twice as contagious as earlier variants, supplanted previous variants in the summer of 2021. So far, scientists do not know whether Omicron is more or less contagious than Delta, but there is sufficient cause for concern.

WHERE DOES OMICRON COME FROM AND WHY DID IT EMERGE?

In early November, scientists in South Africa identified the variant in a patient with COVID-19 from Botswana, a country that borders South Africa. Subsequently, the variant was detected in South Africa. The identification of new variants is expected. Variants are a natural part of the virus lifecycle and arise as the result of errors (mutations) that take place when the virus copies its genetic code while replicating inside the cells of an infected person.

WHY ARE PUBLIC HEALTH OFFICIALS CONCERNED?

“While we don’t know yet whether Omicron is more or less contagious than Delta, there are concerns that it may be more contagious because it is rapidly replacing Delta in South Africa,” says W. Ian Lipkin, John Snow Professor of Epidemiology and director of the Center for Infection and Immunity. Another troubling sign: Omicron has many more mutations than earlier variants and these mutations are concentrated in a part of the virus that interacts with human cells—regions that are important for the efficacy of vaccines and treatments. 

WHERE IS OMICRON NOW AND WHERE WILL IT SPREAD NEXT?  

As of November 29, the Omicron variant has been detected in 15 countries. Due to incomplete surveillance and limited availability of virus sequencing around the world, the variant is likely more widespread and will likely be identified in many more countries, including the U.S. However, projecting the future spread of Omicron is not yet possible. “We won’t be able to project its spread and impact until we have a better sense of its transmissibility, its ability to compete with other variants—Delta in particular—its ability to cause breakthrough and repeat infections, and the severity of disease caused by Omicron,” says Jeffrey Shaman, a professor of environmental health sciences who is an expert in infectious disease modeling.

WHAT ARE THE BIGGEST UNANSWERED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE NEW VARIANT AND WHEN WILL WE GET ANSWERS?

The most critical questions about the new variant are whether or not it is more infectious than the Delta variant, whether or not it is likely to cause more severe disease, and whether or not it will compromise the effectiveness of available vaccines or treatments. In laboratory studies, scientists are hard at work examining how well vaccines work against Omicron. Meanwhile, epidemiological studies will determine how infectious the variant is and whether it causes more severe illness. Preliminary answers will likely take a few weeks, according to Jessica Justman, senior director at ICAP at Columbia and associate professor of epidemiology. 

WHAT PRECAUTIONS ARE BEING TAKEN AGAINST OMICRON AND WHY?

Around the world, viral sequences are being examined for the presence of Omicron. Scientists are also working on a vaccine against the new variant, in case one is needed. Meanwhile, countries, including the U.S., have limited visitors from certain southern African countries to slow the arrival of the variant. Some say these restrictions unfairly target southern African countries when evidence already suggests the variant is circulating more widely. Stephen Morse, professor of epidemiology, says restrictions on travel from China in early 2020 did nothing to stop the spread of the virus in the U.S., which instead arrived via Europe. “Travel restrictions alone may buy some time, but I doubt will do much to stop it,” he says.

WHAT ELSE CAN WE DO TO PROTECT OURSELVES?

The recommended measures to limit the spread of the virus continue to apply in the face of new variants. As more evidence evolves, experts say we might need to adjust our approaches, but for now, they say it is important to stay the course and use the protective tools we have. The best thing to do is get fully vaccinated, including a booster shot. Additional precautions include avoiding large gatherings, especially indoors, and wearing a mask when indoors, when not with immediate family or small social groups, as well as outdoors in a crowded setting. It is also important to stay home if not feeling well and get tested, as appropriate.

On a policy level, our experts call on improved availability of vaccines around the world, especially in low and middle-income countries, which lag behind wealthy countries in vaccine coverage. “There is an urgent need to produce more vaccine doses and support countries in their vaccination efforts,” says Wafaa El-Sadr, Columbia University Professor and director of ICAP at Columbia. “COVID-19 is everywhere. We must stop transmission, which we know drives the evolution of new variants, and vaccines remain our best tool to stem new infections and the risk of new variants.”

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LOUISVILLE, Ky. (AP) — Cadell Walker rushed to get her 9-year-old daughter Solome vaccinated against COVID-19 — not just to protect her but to help stop the coronavirus from spreading and spawning even more dangerous variants.

“Love thy neighbor is something that we really do believe, and we want to be good community members and want to model that thinking for our daughter,” said the 40-year-old Louisville mom, who recently took Solome to a local middle school for her shot. “The only way to really beat COVID is for all of us collectively to work together for the greater good.”

Scientists agree. Each infection — whether in an adult in Yemen or a kid in Kentucky — gives the virus another opportunity to mutate. Protecting a new, large chunk of the population anywhere in the world limits those opportunities.

That effort got a lift with 28 million U.S. kids 5 to 11 years old now eligible for child-sized doses of the Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine. Moves elsewhere, like Austria’s recent decision to require all adults to be vaccinated and even the U.S. authorizing booster shots for all adults on Friday, help by further reducing the chances of new infection.

Vaccinating kids also means reducing silent spread, since most have no or mild symptoms when they contract the virus. When the virus spreads unseen, scientists say, it also goes unabated. And as more people contract it, the odds of new variants rise.

David O’Connor, a virology expert at the University of Wisconsin-Madison, likens infections to “lottery tickets that we’re giving the virus.” The jackpot? A variant even more dangerous than the contagious delta currently circulating.

“The fewer people who are infected, the less lottery tickets it has and the better off we’re all going to be in terms of generating the variants,” he said, adding that variants are even more likely to emerge in people with weakened immune systems who harbor the virus for a long time.

Researchers disagree on how much kids have influenced the course of the pandemic. Early research suggested they didn’t contribute much to viral spread. But some experts say children played a significant role this year spreading contagious variants such as alpha and delta.

Getting kids vaccinated could make a real difference going forward, according to estimates by the COVID-19 Scenario Modeling Hub, a collection of university and medical research organizations that consolidates models of how the pandemic may unfold. The hub’s latest estimates show that for this November through March 12, 2022, vaccinating 5- to 11-year-olds would avert about 430,000 COVID cases in the overall U.S. population if no new variant arose. If a variant 50% more transmissible than delta showed up in late fall, 860,000 cases would be averted, “a big impact,” said project co-leader Katriona Shea, of Pennsylvania State University.

Delta remains dominant for now, accounting for more than 99% of analyzed coronavirus specimens in the United States. Scientists aren’t sure exactly why. Dr. Stuart Campbell Ray, an infectious disease expert at Johns Hopkins University, said it may be intrinsically more infectious, or it may be evading at least in part the protection people get from vaccines or having been infected before.

“It’s probably a combination of those things,” he said. “But there’s also very good and growing evidence that delta is simply more fit, meaning that it’s able to grow to higher levels faster than other variants that are studied. So when people get delta, they become infectious sooner.”

Ray said delta is “a big family” of viruses, and the world is now swimming in a sort of “delta soup.”

“We have many lineages of delta that are circulating in many places with no clear winners,” Ray said, adding that it’s hard to know from genetic features which might have an edge, or which non-delta variants might dethrone delta.

“I often say it’s like seeing a car parked on the side of the road with racing slicks and racing stripes and an airfoil on the back and a big engine,” Ray said. “You know it looks like it could be a real contender, but until you see it on the track with other cars, you don’t know if it’s going to win.”

Another big unknown: Dangerous variants may still arise in largely-unvaccinated parts of the world and make their way to America even as U.S. children join the ranks of the vaccinated.

Walker, the Louisville mom, said she and her husband can’t do anything about distant threats, but could sign their daughter up for vaccination at Jefferson County Public Schools sites on a recent weekend. Solome is adopted from Ethiopia and is prone to pneumonia following respiratory ailments after being exposed to tuberculosis as a baby.

She said she wants to keep other kids safe because “it’s not good to get sick.”

As a nurse leaned in to give Solome her shot, Walker held her daughter’s hand, then praised her for picking out a post-jab sticker appropriate for a brave kid who just did her part to help curb a pandemic.

“Wonder Woman,” Walker said. “Perfect.”

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WASHINGTON (AP) — The spread of the COVID-19 delta variant is raising infections, leading some companies and governments to require vaccinations and raising concerns about the U.S. economic recovery.

But on Wednesday, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell injected a note of reassurance, suggesting that the delta variant poses little threat to the economy, at least so far.

“What we’ve seen is with successive waves of COVID over the past year and some months now,” Powell said at a news conference, “there has tended to be less in the way of economic implications from each wave. We will see whether that is the case with the delta variety, but it’s certainly not an unreasonable expectation.”

Powell spoke after the Fed ended its latest policy meeting in which it it signaled, for the first time since the pandemic began to ease, that the economy is moving closer to the “substantial further progress” it wants to see before reducing the $120 billion in Treasury and mortgage bonds it is buying each month — purchases that are intended to lower rates on longer-term consumer and business loans to spur more borrowing and spending.

A reduction in those purchases would represent the start of a gradual pullback in the Fed’s support for the economy. Only after the bond purchases had been pulled back is the Fed expected to begin considering raising its benchmark interest rates from zero, where it’s been since the pandemic erupted in March last year.

At his news conference, Powell acknowledged that the quickening spread of the highly contagious delta variant was threatening some areas of the nation where vaccinations are low, and he noted that “some forecasts are for them to rise quite significantly.”

And he said that as the virus spreads, some consumers might pull back from the spending that has propelled the rapid rebound from the pandemic recession.

“Dining out, traveling, some schools might not reopen,” he said. “We may see economic effects from some of that or it might weigh on the return to the labor market. We don’t have a strong sense of how that will work out, so we’ll be monitoring it carefully.”

But Powell noted that last summer’s wave of infections had inflicted less damage to the economy that many analysts had forecast.

“We’ve kind of learned to live with it, a lot of industries have kind of improvised their way around it,” Powell added. “It seems like we’ve learned to handle this.”

The statement the Fed issued after its latest policy meeting said that ongoing vaccinations were helping to support the economy. But it dropped a sentence it had included after its previous meeting that said those vaccinations have reduced the spread of COVID-19.

The central bank is keeping its benchmark short-term rate pegged near zero, where it has remained since the pandemic tore through the economy in March 2020. The Fed will also continue to buy $120 billion in Treasury and mortgage bonds each month — purchases that are intended to lower rates on longer-term consumer and business loans to spur more borrowing and spending.

The Fed’s latest policy statement comes as the economy is sustaining a strong recovery from the pandemic recession, with solid hiring and spending.

That improvement, and a pickup in inflation, are key reasons why Powell and other Fed policymakers are believed to be moving closer toward pulling back their economic support. Consumer prices jumped 5.4% in June from a year ago, the biggest increase in 13 years. And a separate inflation gauge the Fed prefers has risen 3.9% in the past year.

Last month’s inflation surge marked a fourth straight month of unexpectedly large price increases, heightening fears that higher costs will erode the value of recent pay raises and undermine the economic recovery. But in its statement, the Fed again expressed its belief that the increase in inflation largely reflects “transitory factors.”

Among Fed watchers and investors, there is some concern that the central bank will end up responding too late and too aggressively to high inflation by quickly jacking up interest rates and potentially causing another recession. Earlier this month, Republicans in Congress peppered Powell with questions about inflation.

But at his news conference, Powell said that if “we were to see inflation moving up to levels persistently that were above significantly, materially above our goal … we would use our tools to guide inflation back down” to the Fed’s target average inflation of 2% annually.

After a period of broad agreement during the pandemic crisis, the Fed’s policymakers appear divided over how soon to bein tapering its bond purchases. Several regional Fed bank presidents support tapering soon, including James Bullard of the St. Louis Fed, Patrick Harker of the Philadelphia Fed and Robert Kaplan of the Dallas Fed.

But Powell has said that the central bank wants to see “substantial further progress” toward its goals of maximum employment and price stability before it would consider reducing the bond purchases. To make up for years of inflation remaining below 2%, the Fed wants inflation to moderately exceed its 2% average inflation target and to show signs of remaining above that level for an unspecified time.

In recent months, as consumer demand has exceeded the supply of goods and services in some industries, inflation — led by sharp price increases for things like used and new cars, hotel rooms and airline tickets — has topped 2%.

It’s not yet clear how the highly contagious and fast-spreading delta variant of the coronavirus might affect the U.S. or global economies or how the job market will fare in coming months. Hiring could accelerate in September as schools reopen, more parents are able to take jobs and expanded unemployment aid programs expire.

Powell has said the Fed will communicate its intention to taper “well in advance” of doing so. Many economists think that signal will occur in late August or September.

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Dozens of Americans are rolling up their sleeves for a third dose of COVID-19 vaccine — this time, shots tweaked to guard against a worrisome mutated version of the virus.

Make no mistake: The vaccines currently being rolled out across the U.S. offer strong protection. But new studies of experimental updates to the Moderna and Pfizer vaccines mark a critical first step toward an alternative if the virus eventually outsmarts today’s shots.

“We need to be ahead of the virus,” said Dr. Nadine Rouphael of Emory University, who is helping to lead a study of Moderna’s tweaked candidate. “We know what it’s like when we’re behind.”

It’s not clear if or when protection would wane enough to require an update but, “realistically we want to turn COVID into a sniffle,” she added.

Viruses constantly evolve, and the world is in a race to vaccinate millions and tamp down the coronavirus before even more mutants emerge. More than 119 million Americans have had at least one vaccine dose, and 22% of the population is fully vaccinated, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. Much of the rest of the world is far behind that pace.

Already an easier-to-spread version found in Britain just months ago has become the most common variant now circulating in the United States, one that’s fortunately vaccine-preventable.

But globally, there’s concern that first-generation vaccines may offer less protection against a different variant that first emerged in South Africa. All the major vaccine makers are tweaking their recipes in case an update against that so-called B.1.351 virus is needed. Now experimental doses from Moderna and Pfizer are being put to the test.

In suburban Atlanta, Emory asked people who received Moderna’s original vaccine a year ago in a first-stage study to also help test the updated shot. Volunteer Cole Smith said returning wasn’t a tough decision.

“The earlier one, it was a great success and, you know, millions of people are getting vaccinated now,” Smith told The Associated Press. “If we’re helping people with the old one, why not volunteer and help people with the new one?”

The study, funded by the National Institutes of Health, isn’t just testing Moderna’s experimental variant vaccine as a third-shot immune booster. Researchers at Emory and three other medical centers also are enrolling volunteers who haven’t yet received any kind of COVID-19 vaccination.

They want to know: Could people be vaccinated just with two doses of the variant vaccine and not the original? Or one dose of each kind? Or even get the original and the variant dose combined into the same injection?

Separately, the Food and Drug Administration has given Pfizer and its German partner BioNTech permission to start similar testing of their own tweaked vaccine. The companies called it part of a proactive strategy to enable rapid deployment of updated vaccines if they’re ever needed.

The Moderna and Pfizer vaccines, like the majority of COVID-19 vaccines being used around the world, train the body to recognize the spike protein that is the outer coating of the coronavirus. Those spikes are how the virus latches onto human cells.

Mutations occur whenever any virus makes copies of itself. Usually those mistakes make no difference. But if a lot of changes pile up in the spike protein — or those changes are in especially key locations — the mutant might escape an immune system primed to watch for an intruder that looks a bit different.

The good news: It’s fairly easy to update the Moderna and Pfizer vaccines. They’re made with a piece of genetic code called messenger RNA that tells the body how to make some harmless spike copies that in turn train immune cells. The companies simply swapped out the original vaccine’s genetic code with mRNA for the mutated spike protein — this time, the one from South Africa.

Studies getting underway this month include a few hundred people, very different than the massive testing needed to prove the original shots work. Scientists must make sure the mRNA substitution doesn’t trigger different side effects.

On the protection side, they’re closely measuring if the updated vaccine prompts the immune system to produce antibodies — which fend off infection — as robustly as the original shots do. Importantly, lab tests also can show if those antibodies recognize not just the variant from South Africa but other, more common virus versions, too.

Some good news: Antibodies aren’t the only defense. NIH researchers recently looked at another arm of the immune system, T cells that fight back after infection sets in. Lab tests showed T cells in the blood of people who recovered from COVID-19 long before worrisome variants appeared nonetheless recognized mutations from the South African version. Vaccines trigger T cell production, too, and may be key to preventing the worst outcomes.

Still, no vaccine is 100% effective — even without the mutation threat, occasionally the fully vaccinated will get COVID-19. So how would authorities know an update is needed? A red flag would be a jump in hospitalizations — not just positive tests — among vaccinated people who harbor a new mutant.

“That’s when you’ve crossed the line. That’s when you’re talking about a second-generation vaccine,” said Dr. Paul Offit of Children’s Hospital of Philadelphia, a vaccine adviser to the Food and Drug Administration. “We haven’t crossed that line yet, but we might.”

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The makers of COVID-19 vaccines are figuring out how to tweak their recipes against worrisome virus mutations — and regulators are looking to flu as a blueprint if and when the shots need an update.

“It’s not really something you can sort of flip a switch, do overnight,” cautioned Richard Webby, who directs a World Health Organization flu center from St. Jude Children’s Research Hospital.

Viruses mutate constantly and it takes just the right combination of particular mutations to escape vaccination. But studies are raising concern that first-generation COVID-19 vaccines don’t work as well against a mutant that first emerged in South Africa as they do against other versions circulating around the world.

The good news: Many of the new COVID-19 vaccines are made with new, flexible technology that’s easy to upgrade. What’s harder: Deciding if the virus has mutated enough that it’s time to modify vaccines — and what changes to make.

“When do you pull the trigger?” asked Norman Baylor, a former Food and Drug Administration vaccine chief. “This is a moving target right now.”

FLU OFFERS A MODEL

The WHO and FDA are looking to the global flu vaccine system in deciding how to handle similar decisions about COVID-19 shots.

Influenza mutates much faster than the coronavirus, and flu shots have to be adjusted just about every year. National centers around the globe collect circulating flu viruses and track how they’re evolving. They send samples to WHO-designated labs for more sophisticated “antigenic” testing to determine vaccine strength. The WHO and regulators then agree on the year’s vaccine recipe and manufacturers get to work.

For COVID-19 vaccines, Webby said a critical step is establishing a similar surveillance and testing network to flag the mutations that matter. Today, there’s wide geographic variability in tracking and testing mutated versions. For example, Britain does more testing of the changing viral genome than the U.S.

Three variants first discovered in Britain, South Africa and Brazil are worrisome because of combinations of mutations that make them more contagious.

On Sunday, U.S. researchers reported a still different mutation found in seven variants that have cropped up in several states. No one yet knows if this mutation makes the virus easier to spread but the report, not yet vetted by other scientists, urges further research to find out.

HOW COVID-19 SHOTS ARE HOLDING UP

Just because a variant is more contagious doesn’t mean it also will be impervious to vaccination. But the variant first identified in South Africa is raising concerns. Columbia University’s David Ho put blood samples from people given the Pfizer or Moderna vaccines into lab dishes with the mutated virus. Vaccine-produced antibodies still protected, but they were much less potent.

Preliminary test results of two other vaccine candidates — from Novavax and Johnson & Johnson — soon backed up those findings. Both still protected but were weaker when tested in South Africa, where that variant dominates, than when tested elsewhere. A far smaller test of the AstraZeneca vaccine in South Africa has raised questions about its effect.

“If the virus were able to make an additional mutation or two, it could escape even more,” Ho warned.

THE REAL RED FLAG

If fully immunized people start getting hospitalized with mutated virus, “that’s when the line gets crossed,” said Dr. Paul Offit, a Children’s Hospital of Philadelphia vaccine expert who advises the FDA.

That hasn’t happened yet, but “we should get ready,” he added.

Moderna is about to explore one option: Could a third dose of the original vaccine boost immunity enough to fend off some variants even if it’s not an exact match?

Columbia’s Ho said it’s a good idea to test because people may “still have plenty of cushion” if their overall antibody levels are very high.

ADJUSTING THE RECIPES

Major manufacturers also are developing experimental variant vaccines, just in case.

COVID-19 vaccines produce antibodies that recognize the spike protein that coats the coronavirus. When the virus mutates, sometimes the spike protein is changed in key areas so the vaccine-produced antibodies have a harder time recognizing it.

The Pfizer and Moderna vaccines are made with a piece of genetic code called messenger RNA that tells the body how to make some harmless copies of the spike protein that train immune cells. To update the vaccine, they can simply change the payload: swap out the original genetic code with mRNA for the mutated spike protein.

The AstraZeneca vaccine and the Johnson & Johnson shot expected to roll out soon are made with cold viruses engineered to sneak a spike protein gene into the body. Adjusting their vaccines requires growing cold viruses with the mutated gene, a little more complex than the mRNA approach but not nearly as laborious as reformulating old-fashioned flu shots.

The Novavax vaccine also in final-stage testing is made with a lab-grown copy of the spike protein that also could be tweaked to match mutations.

TESTING VACCINES 2.0

First-generation COVID-19 vaccines were tested in tens of thousands of people to be sure they work and are safe — research that took many months.

Simply changing the recipe to better target virus mutations won’t require repeating those studies in thousands of people, Dr. Peter Marks, the FDA’s vaccine chief, recently told the American Medical Association.

FDA still is finalizing requirements, but Marks said the agency intends to “be pretty nimble.” If an updated vaccine is needed, tests in a few hundred people likely would be enough to tell if it triggers a good immune response, he said.

But an even bigger question: If only some places face vaccine-resistant virus mutants, would authorities want variant-only shots or vaccines that protect against two kinds in one jab? After all, flu vaccines protect against three or four different types in one shot.

Companies would first have to perform some basic research to be sure a variant-only version properly revs up the immune system, said the Immunization Action Coalition’s John Grabenstein, a former Merck vaccine executive. Then a combination shot would need more testing to be sure there’s an equal response to both types.

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LANSING, Mich. (AP) — States are loosening their coronavirus restrictions on restaurants and other businesses because of improved infection and hospitalization numbers but are moving gradually and cautiously, in part because of the more contagious variant taking hold in the U.S.

While the easing could cause case rates to rise, health experts say it can work if done in a measured way and if the public remains vigilant about masks and social distancing.

“If the frequency goes up, you tighten it up. If the frequency goes down, you loosen up. Getting it just right is almost impossible,” said Dr. Arnold Monto, a public health professor at the University of Michigan. “There’s no perfect way to do this.”

As Michigan’s coronavirus rate dropped to the nation’s fifth-lowest over the last two weeks, Gov. Gretchen Whitmer said bars and restaurants can welcome indoor customers next week for the first time in 2 1/2 months. But they will be under a 10 p.m. curfew and will be limited to 25% of capacity, or half of what was allowed the last time she loosened their restrictions, in June.

The state previously authorized the resumption of in-person classes at high schools and the partial reopening of movie theaters.

“We’re in a stronger position because we’ve taken this pause,” Whitmer said. “But we are also very mindful of the fact that this variant is now here in Michigan. It poses a real threat.”

The COVID-19 death toll in the U.S. has climbed past 425,000, with the number of dead running at close to all-time highs at nearly 3,350 a day on average.

But newly confirmed cases have dropped over the past two weeks from an average of about 248,000 per day to around 166,000. And the number of people in the hospital with COVID-19 has fallen by tens of thousands to 109,000.

At the same time, health experts have warned that the more contagious and possibly more lethal variant sweeping Britain will probably become the dominant source of infection in the U.S. by March. It has been reported in over 20 states.

Other mutant versions are circulating in South Africa and Brazil. The Brazil variant has been detected for the first time in the U.S., in Minnesota.

Chicago and surrounding suburbs allowed indoor dining over the weekend for the first time since October. Major cultural attractions including the Field Museum and Shedd Aquarium reopened with crowd limits.

Steve Lombardo III, an owner of a Chicago-area restaurant group, called being able to seat customers indoors a “huge boost.” One of its most famous restaurants, Gibsons Bar & Steakhouse, has been using hospital-grade air filtration systems in the hopes of staying afloat, he said.

“Will we be making money? Probably not,” Lombardo said. “But we won’t be hemorrhaging money like we have the last three months.”

Washington, D.C., also recently ended its monthlong ban on indoor dining, but one in New York City remains in effect.

California Gov. Gavin Newsom this week lifted stay-at-home orders he imposed last month when hospitals were so overwhelmed with virus patients that they were on the verge of rationing lifesaving care. Restaurants and places of worship will be able to operate outdoors, and many stores will be able to have more shoppers inside.

Jen Diaz, a 38-year-old technical writer from Santa Clarita, California, who works remotely and has not left her home since a trip to the supermarket in March, said she was “horrified” when she heard the governor’s announcement. She has rheumatoid arthritis, and her treatments suppress her immune system, but she has yet to receive a vaccination because she is under 65.

“I was really, really proud of California’s response at first” in the early months of the pandemic, she said. “Suddenly we’re just opening everything. `Let’s go to the mall!’”

She added: “The government doesn’t seem to be taking this as seriously as it once did, on a state level.”

In Oregon, Gov. Kate Brown announced that some indoor operations such as gyms and movie theaters can reopen Friday with limited capacity. Indoor dining is still banned in the hardest-hit counties.

Not all places are taking as cautious an approach.

After North Dakota dropped to the nation’s second-lowest case rate, Republican Gov. Doug Burgum this month not only relaxed limits on the number of people who can gather at restaurants and bars but also allowed a statewide mask mandate to expire last week.

“The fight is far from over, but we can certainly see the light of the end of the tunnel from here,” Burgum said.

Dr. Joshua Sharfstein, vice dean for public health practice and community engagement at Johns Hopkins University and Maryland’s former health department chief, cautioned such a step can carry heavy risk.

“I don’t think it’s unreasonable to start to reopen, but if people think that’s the green light to pretend the virus doesn’t exist, then we’re going to be right back to where we were,” Sharfstein said. “If you do restrictions, the virus goes down. You can open up and see how it goes. But if the variants really take hold, that may not be so easy.”

Many restaurants say they cannot survive offering only takeout during the winter, when the cold makes it difficult if not impossible to offer outdoor dining.

Rick Bayless, one of the most decorated chefs in the U.S., said allowing indoor dining at his Mexican restaurants in Chicago may buy him some time.

“With 25% indoor we might be able to make it to the spring, when people will want to go outdoors,” he said.

Bayless said the business survived a previous shutdown only because his landlord allowed him to stay rent-free for three months. The uncertainty has taken a toll on his workers, he said.

“It’s been touch-and-go. When they allowed us to open up on Saturday, we had staff in here that were literally in tears,” Bayless said.

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California on Wednesday announced the nation’s second confirmed case of the new and apparently more contagious variant of the coronavirus, offering a strong indication that the infection is spreading more widely in the United States.

Gov. Gavin Newsom announced the infection found in Southern California during an online conversation with Dr. Anthony Fauci, head of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases.

“I don’t think Californians should think that this is odd. It’s to be expected,” Fauci said.

Newsom did not provide any details about the person who was infected.

The announcement came 24 hours after word of the first reported U.S. variant infection, which emerged in Colorado. That person was identified Wednesday as a Colorado National Guardsman who had been sent to help out at a nursing home struggling with an outbreak. Health officials said a second Guard member may have it too.

The cases triggered a host of questions about how the version circulating in England arrived in the U.S. and whether it is too late to stop it now, with top experts saying it is probably already spreading elsewhere in the United States.

“The virus is becoming more fit, and we’re like a deer in the headlights,” warned Dr. Eric Topol, head of Scripps Research Translational Institute. He noted that the U.S. does far less genetic sequencing of virus samples to discover variants than other developed nations, and thus was probably slow to detect this new mutation.

The two Guard members had been dispatched Dec. 23 to work at the Good Samaritan Society nursing home in the small town of Simla, in a mostly rural area about 90 miles outside Denver, said Dr. Rachel Herlihy, state epidemiologist. They were among six Guard members sent to the home.

Nasal swab samples taken from the two as part of the Guard’s routine coronavirus testing were sent to the state laboratory, which began looking for the variant after its spread was announced in Britain earlier this month, Herlihy said. Samples from staff and residents at the nursing home are also being screened for the variant at the lab, but so far no evidence of it has been found, she said.

The Colorado case announced Tuesday involves a man in his 20s who had not traveled recently, officials said. He has mild symptoms and is isolating at his home near Denver, while the person with the suspected case is isolating at a Colorado hotel while further genetic analysis is done on his sample, officials said.

The nursing home said it is working closely with the state and is also looking forward to beginning vaccinations next week.

Several states, including California, Massachusetts and Delaware, are also analyzing suspicious virus samples for the variant, said Dr. Greg Armstrong, who directs genetic sequencing at the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. He said the CDC is working with a national lab that gets samples from around the country to broaden that search, with results expected within days.

The discovery in Colorado has added urgency to the nation’s vaccination drive against COVID-19, which has killed more than 340,000 people in the U.S.

Britain is seeing infections soar and hospitalizations climb to their highest levels on record. The variant has also been found in several other countries.

Scientists have found no evidence that it is more lethal or causes more severe illness, and they believe the vaccines now being dispensed will be effective against it. But a faster-spreading virus could swamp hospitals with seriously ill patients.

The discovery overseas led the CDC to issue rules on Christmas Day requiring travelers arriving from Britain to show proof of a negative COVID-19 test. But U.S. health officials said the Colorado patient’s lack of travel history suggests the new variant is already spreading in this country.

Topol said it is too late for travel bans.

“We’re behind in finding it. Colorado is likely one of many places it’s landed here,” he said. “It’s all over the place. How can you ban travel from everywhere?”

Colorado public health officials are conducting contact tracing to determine its spread.

Researchers estimate the variant is 50% to 70% more contagious, said Dr. Eric France, Colorado’s chief medical officer.

“Instead of only making two or three other people sick, you might actually spread it to four or five people,” France said. “That means we’ll have more cases in our communities. Those number of cases will rise quickly and, of course, with more cases come more hospitalizations.”

London and southeast England were placed under strict lockdown measures earlier this month because of the variant, and dozens of countries banned flights from Britain. France also briefly barred trucks from Britain before allowing them back in, provided the drivers got tested for the virus.

New versions of the virus have been seen almost since it was first detected in China a year ago. It is common for viruses to undergo minor changes as they reproduce and move through a population. The fear is that mutations at some point will become significant enough to defeat the vaccines.

South Africa has also discovered a highly contagious COVID-19 variant that is driving the country’s latest spike of cases, hospitalizations and deaths.

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