For most of us, the holiday season is a time for reunions with family and friends in which we express an appreciation for all our blessings; good health, family unity, a roof over our heads, food on the table, and a job that allows us to enjoy a dignified and respectable life.

Even though we tend to take it for granted, we give thanks for our good health, without which, the quality of our lives would be greatly diminished.  Poor health is the single-most important factor that deters us from attaining peace of mind and happiness.

When we look around us and observe dysfunctional families, we give thanks for being a part of a traditional family unit in which mother, father and children play their long established and accepted roles in society.  In today’s particularly challenging societal culture, we give special thanks to a mother and father who manage to bring-up their offspring to be good and productive citizens, while looking after their elders when needed, while willing to sacrifice their own comfort and desires in the process.

Having a solid and permanent roof over our heads is another major reason for giving thanks. We need to be reminded of the thousands of families and individuals who can’t claim this basic benefit, who sleep in shelters, in the best of circumstances, or live in dangerous circumstances on the streets of our cities. We also need to give thanks for all the good people who volunteer their time and talent to mitigate this painful social affliction.

Food in sufficient quantities everyday on the dinner table, three times a day, affectionately prepared in our homes for our enjoyment and nourishment, is also presumed as a given. As we all need to be aware, too many families and individuals cannot claim this essential benefit and are forced to resort to food pantries.

Having a good and secure job is something for which we should be especially thankful.

Hopefully this holiday season, we can try to walk in the shoes of those less fortunate; understand their condition, and do what is in our power to alleviate their plight: we can then sincerely give thanks for all our blessings.

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This week, twenty (20) percent of the companies on the stock market will report their quarterly earnings. So far it seems over eighty (80) percent of those beat analysts expectations. Most companies have lowered their earnings, making it easier to beat. FactSet estimated that the earnings will be four-and-half (4.5) percent lower.

Rarely have we had a market this bullish. A recent analyst this week called for the market to have a huge surge in 2020. I think some of this may be valid, if certain data is accurate and certain events come to fruition. Right now we still feel that the market is overvalued and contains a lot of hype. Looking at the headwinds of BREXIT and the Tariff War with the assumption that both of these have a solution that is agreed upon, would the global recession turn itself around?

Let’s say it does turn itself around. Would it resemble a Yugo making a U-Turn or more like a Star Destroyer? Changing direction would take quarters if not a year to do so. I think that as history is being written, so are the new rules of free-trade. This is why being conservative right now with investments seems to be the practical. One toe in and one toe out. There are far more bullish investors than me out there. Charts seem to show the upper limit for the S&P500 to be around 3150. I will be watching the Relative Strength Index (RSI) and the Volatility Index. If we go into an oversold status, I expect the market to rollover.

Downside right now looks as if a fifteen (15) to twenty (20) percent correction is in order. anything more than that and most call it a recession. This puts twenty-five-hundred (2,500) for the S&P 500 in view and if we do go through that then below two-thousand (2,000) is being called for. Remember Warren Buffett said there was a probability even for a forty (40) percent drop. Not much, but a possibility.

As this market grinds higher or if there is a speculative surge of buyers in the short run, please do me a favor and sell. Take some profits off the table. Cash, bonds or buying the VIX is my recommendation. As the old traders called it “Keep the Powder Dry.” If this occurs, I am bullish on next year. With the Federal Reserve lowering rates and very low inflation in hand, there is room for the consumer index to gain momentum and live with a little more money in their hands. The consumer index has remained strong. If they hold in there and the recent layoffs don’t accelerate beyond job growth, then I think we see higher earnings and a turn around next year. I maybe off by six months but stock-market timing is not an exact science. Take your fourth quarter positions now. The last two have been ones to remember. I think the 3^rd time will be the charm.

If you have questions on a particular company or investment and would like our feedback, contact us at my email below. Our team will research and respond to you with our recommendation and opinion.

Andrew F. Kotyuk, CIMA* is CEO and Principal of Alpha Wealth Management LLC

For questions or investment topics please email me afkotyuk@alpha-wealth.com.

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Are You Getting All That You Truly Want in a Relationship?

Relationships are usually a complicated affair—yes, the pun is fully intended—but I know of a surefire way to guarantee the success of any relationship, provided one follows my instructions properly.

Experts would say that you should trust each other, be gentle with each other, spend more time doing intimate things, don’t spend money to be happy, and so on. Older adults used to say that the path to man’s heart is through his stomach; meaning, the wife, should be a good cook. Some would even say that a wife should…well, never mind. The bottom line is that it is usually up to a woman to make the relationship work.

At the risk of sounding sexist, I actually agree with that assessment. It is up to a woman to make sure that a relationship is a success. Before you jump all over me for saying that, first hear me out. You see, typically, men are generally stupid, and women can carry out plans better. All those pointers from so-called experts do make sense in theory, but in real life, there is no place for them. Real-life requires practical solutions and not hypothetical ones.

My solution is very simple. It works, and it does not require too much effort either. You see, I have daughters, and I want them to use my advice so that they can have a successful relationship with their husbands. All they have to do and all that any woman has to do to make a relationship successful is to take his self-esteem away.

A man with no self-esteem will follow his wife everywhere, do exactly as she wishes, and do everything possible to make her happy. He would go to the ends of the earth to prove himself worthy and would bend over backward to win her approval. He will always be putty in her hands, which she can then mold to her liking.

There are many different ways to strip a man of his self-esteem. The best and most successful method is to convince him that you made a mistake when you settled for him. You had much better options. If it weren’t for a moment of weakness when you took pity and said yes to someone so undeserving of you, you could have been with someone much better, more handsome, better built, and maybe even with a better personality. “Look at you, just look at you,” you should repeat often, “And now, look at me. You are so lucky to have me.”

(A Different Point of View)

The second successful method is to make him feel inadequate. This could go in many different ways, but the two most hurtful ways would be that he is not a good provider and that he is not a good lover. The second one really hits below the belt.

Convince him that he has wasted all of his potential and has failed to achieve success. Even if he is a doctor, he could have been a better doctor, or be more like so and so’s doctor husband. If he is a businessman, he could have done a better business and not the failure that he has poured his blood and sweat into; all for nothing.

The lover part is a lot easier. No man alive can be a successful lover if the woman decides never to let him succeed. There is no measure that men know to determine success, so all efforts are open-ended. Goalposts can be moved, as far away as necessary.

Then there is the always popular; he comes from a low-class family. “Look at your sister,” you could point it out to him, “She has no manners, just like you.” Or, “Look at your parents (or brother, or uncles). If it weren’t for me to join your family, you would all still be…” Then leave the sentence incomplete. Let his imagination fill it with all the possible negative nouns, pronouns, and adjectives that his tiny, inferior brain can fathom.

Any one of these methods works all by itself, but you achieve more success when you combine any two of them. Double whammy, that is, or a one-two punch, if you may. Or, you could be like my wife, and use all four.

Man, I love that woman. I’ll do anything to make her happy. I would go to the ends of this earth to show her how much I love her. I would bend over backwards to make sure there’s always a smile on her face. I just can’t live without her.

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