My trusty spreadsheet looked at the first Consumer Price Index report in two months to see how the cost of living behaved during the federal government’s historic shutdown, both nationally and across three local regions.

The overall U.S. inflation annual rate was 2.7% in November, down from 3% in September. However, progress is modest.

The last time U.S. inflation, as measured by CPI math, was below 2.7% was in May. And November was equal to the 2.7% rate in November 2024. That’s when Donald Trump won his second White House term and promised to quickly fix the nation’s cost-of-living woes.

It’s a different price picture across Southern California.

The Inland Empire posted the region’s fastest inflation rate of 4.5% in November, the highest since September 2023. This was up from 3.6% in September and 1.1% a year earlier.

San Diego County’s inflation rate rose to 4%, the highest since November 2023, up from 3.9% in September and 2.6% a year earlier.

And in Los Angeles and Orange counties, the 3.6% inflation rate was the highest since May 2024. It was 3.5% in September and 3.2% a year earlier.

Ponder some key consumer spending categories within the CPI to get hints at the gaps.

Cooling rents

Price hikes from landlords moderated nationally and in most local regions, as measured by the CPI.

U.S. rents rose at a 3% annual rate in November vs. 3.4% September and 4.4% a year earlier.

L.A.-Orange County rent grew at a 3.4% annual rate in November, off from 3.6% in September and 4.5% a year earlier.

San Diego rents grew 3.9% year over year in November, down from 4% in September and 4.7% a year earlier.

Yet in the Inland Empire, renters paid 5% more in a year in November – down from 5.6% in September but double 2.5% a year earlier.

Goosed by groceries

Costs at the supermarket were mixed.

Nationally, food-at-home prices rose at a 1.9% annual rate in November vs. 2.7% September and 1.6% a year earlier.

L.A.-Orange County’s grocery inflation ran 2.3% in November, down from 2.8% September but faster than the 2% a year earlier.

In the Inland Empire, groceries were 1.1% pricier for November, slower than 1.3% inflation for September – but a reversal from a 0.1% drop a year earlier.

And in San Diego, grocery prices dropped 0.1% in November. That’s an improvement from a 2% gain for September and a 2.4% increase a year earlier.

Pump pain

Last year’s dip in gas prices is a memory – but that pain is greater locally.

Nationally, unleaded regular prices rose at a 0.7% annual rate in November, up from an 8% decline a year earlier.

L.A.-Orange County pumps were priced 8% higher in the year ended in November, erasing much of the 13% drop a year earlier.

In both San Diego and the Inland Empire, unleaded was 7% more expensive in November than a year earlier, down from a 12% drop a year earlier.

Pruned pay hikes

Local inflation hurts even more as raises shrink.

One yardstick of wages and salaries in Los Angeles, Orange, Riverside, San Bernardino and Ventura counties showed compensation growing at a 3.4% annual rate in the third quarter, down from 4.8% in 2024.

Nationally, the Employment Cost Index showed raises slowing to a 3.6% annual rate from 3.8% in the third quarter of 2024.

The post Inflation isn’t cooling in Southern California appeared first on The Hemet & San Jacinto Chronicle.

The agency’s bimonthly report, which covers northwestern Riverside County as well as the cities of Ontario and San Bernardino, indicated that the metro area’s Consumer Price Index shifted to an upward trajectory compared to the start of the year, when a mix of increases and offsetting decreases left the CPI flat.

BLS officials said the energy sector was the primary driver of pocketbook pressure from the beginning of February to the end of March. Gasoline prices jumped 8.8%, while electricity costs rose 3.2%, and natural gas prices notched up .6%, figures showed.

Property rents also went up, reflected in the index’s “shelter costs,” which increased .9% over the two-month period.

Longer term, the regional CPI was 4.3% higher over the previous 12 months, with rents leading the advance at 7.4%, according to data.

Energy prices were up 3.1%, led by electricity costs, which leapt 10% year-over-year. The BLS said food prices rose 2.6% during the period, and health care expenses were 5.5% higher.

Price tags on some items fell over the last 12 months, including those for household furnishings, which rated a 4.4% drop, and costs on motor vehicles, which declined 3.4%, according to the index.

The report showed inflation was up .4% nationwide in March, and 3.8% from March 2023 to March 2024.

The current rate of inflation reflects the elevated price trajectory impacting most sectors of the economy.

Accelerating consumer price hikes have been blamed by the Biden administration on the war in Ukraine and consequent energy supply disruptions, but critics have pointed to what they call the administration’s restrictive domestic energy policies, as well as excessive spending, including the flood of dollars contained in relief packages, as root causes.

The national debt is at $34.6 trillion, after passing $33 trillion just seven months ago, according to the U.S. Treasury Department. Estimated annualized interest rate payments on the country’s debt passed the $1 trillion mark in November, according to Bloomberg News. That same month, Moody’s Investors Service lowered its outlook on the U.S. credit rating from “stable” to “negative.”

The Federal Reserve’s Open Market Committee started gradually increasing its benchmark, or target, lending rate in spring 2022, though the FOMC suspended hikes beginning last summer, leaving the rate at roughly 5.5% on the belief that the pace of inflation had slowed satisfactorily.

The hikes were an attempt to soak up excess liquidity and slow spending. The upturn in inflationary pressure reflected in the latest BLS report for the nation might push FOMC decision-makers to reconsider earlier announcements regarding expectations for rate cuts, according to financial analysts.

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