The U.S. Department of Agriculture has announced plans to spend $100 million to study bird flu vaccines to fight the disease in concert with meat chicken, egg and turkey groups. That’s part of a larger $1 billion effort to invest in more protections to keep the virus off farms that President Donald Trump believes will help lower egg prices.

Chicken meat producers remain the most resistant to vaccines because of concerns they could harm meat exports, which totaled nearly $4.7 billion last year. Egg and turkey producers sell most of their products in the U.S. and have been hit hardest by the virus.

Why is a vaccine needed?

Without a new policy including vaccines, the government will continue to slaughter every flock with a bird flu infection to limit the spread of the disease. Those deaths have totaled over 166 million birds in the U.S. since 2022.

Most birds killed are egg-laying chickens, and the death of so many hens is the main reason egg prices keep rising. The average price per dozen has hit $5.90, and in some parts of the country, it is far higher.

Poultry veterinarian Simon Shane, who runs www.Egg-News.com, said the government is hesitant to use vaccines and change its policy of killing birds largely because of the meat chicken industry’s opposition.

“Basically this is a political issue, and this only came to a head because eggs are at $8 to $9 a dozen, and it’s embarrassing the government — embarrassing the present administration,” Shane said.

Why doesn’t the US use a bird flu vaccine?

Before using vaccinations, the government must decide how to devise an effective system and monitor for outbreaks within vaccinated flocks that might not show any symptoms, said John Clifford, the USDA’s former longtime chief veterinary officer, who now works with a poultry industry export group. Once that is figured out, the industry can negotiate with countries to minimize trade problems.

“What the industry wants is the ability to develop the strategic plan to share that with the trading partners and then find out what kind of impact that that will have on trade,” Clifford said.

There are fears that vaccinating could allow the virus to linger undetected in flocks and mutate in ways that could make it more of a threat to humans and allow sick birds to get into the food supply. Like with other diseases, properly cooking chicken to 165 degrees Fahrenheit (74 degrees Celsius) will kill bird flu, but the industry and chicken buyers don’t want it there at all.

For meat chicken, known as broilers, the virus isn’t as significant because those birds are slaughtered at 6 to 8 weeks old and thus have less chance of being infected compared with egg-laying hens, which live to 2 years or older. Also most broilers are raised in the Southeast, which hasn’t had as many outbreaks as the Midwest and West.

Another delay to vaccinating concerns distribution. Egg farmers want to administer it through chicken feed or water, saying it’s not practical to give shots to millions of birds in a single barn.

It can also be difficult to tell the difference between a vaccinated bird and one that has been sick with the virus. That would make other countries nervous about importing meat.

“People have talked about how expensive it would be to monitor vaccinated populations. And it would be. But where do we want to spend our money?” said Dr. Carol Cardona, a bird flu expert at the University of Minnesota. “We’re spending our money hand over fist right now in depopulation and to buy eggs for breakfast.”

What does the experience in other countries show?

China and Mexico have been vaccinating their poultry for years, but they take different approaches.

In Mexico, chicken are vaccinated, but Clifford said the country doesn’t slaughter flocks when infections are found. That basically ensures the virus is present in poultry.

China still slaughters vaccinated flocks when infections are found, which has proved more effective at limiting the spread of the virus and reining in outbreaks.

Clifford said the U.S. would need to continue culling flocks with outbreaks even after vaccinating, and it might make sense to give shots only to egg layers and turkeys, not broilers.

Will it help egg prices?

Don’t expect big relief anytime soon.

The USDA, which did not respond to a request for comment sent last week, clearly isn’t moving to vaccinate immediately. And, regardless, it will take time to raise new hens.

“We’re going to have to wait to replace those with new hatched chicks, and it takes 20 weeks before they even start laying,” Shane said. “So I don’t know where they’re going to get the eggs from.”

Prices may ease somewhat later this year after peak demand, which happens around Easter, if massive egg farms in California, Iowa, Ohio and elsewhere can avoid more outbreaks.

The USDA has predicted that average egg prices will be 41% higher than the 2024 average of $3.17 per dozen. That would mean $4.47 per dozen, slightly below the current average.

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Last week, four experts at the University of California, Riverside, discussed what residents should know about the worst bird flu outbreak in recent memory.

The university recently interviewed the following experts: Bruce Babcock, associate dean and professor of public policy with expertise in agricultural economics; Amy Murillo, assistant professor of veterinary entomology; Juliet Morrison, assistant professor of microbiology and plant pathology; and Michael Bates, assistant professor of economics.

The university faculty discussed high prices, when consumers may see relief and how farmers are faring in the war against the zoonotic outbreak.

Though farmers are deeply entrenched in the situation, households are likely only feeling it in their pocketbooks when facing sticker shock at the supermarket.

The average price per dozen was $4.10 at the end of 2024, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Now, a dozen eggs at a local grocery could cost anywhere from $8 to $10.

Bates addressed the issue of families on a fixed income.

“Since other common sources of protein such as beef, pork, and poultry are generally more expensive, price increases to eggs can be particularly painful, and particularly so for low-earners who may rely more on them,” he told the university.

Bates also noted that the price of eggs was rising before bird flu cases began spiking again last April.

“But the recent drastic rise in prices seems primarily driven by the outbreak,” he said, noting that a similar but less drastic price surge happened with bird flu in January 2023.

Babcock says that egg prices have surged because the supply of eggs has dropped due to the severe outbreak. That’s because the only way to slow the disease spread is to euthanize laying hens after an outbreak is detected at a production facility.

Since January 2024, more than 157 million chickens have been affected by bird flu, according to Murillo, who also noted that there is no treatment for the highly contagious bird flu.

“Infected chickens show signs of severe illness or death very quickly, and the current standard practice is to euthanize the entire flock if the virus is detected on a property,” she said.

A farm also cannot bring back replacement chickens for at least a month after an outbreak is detected.

Going back to this issue of cost, Babcock says the egg supply was about 7 to 10 percent lower than it was expected to be without bird losses.

“Egg prices are highly sensitive to changes in supply,” he said.

The United States Department of Agriculture reported that as of November of last year, stocking densities are down about 3 percent compared to the previous year — but chicken egg and meat demand is up, contributing further to high prices and shortages, Murrillo said.

In response to a question about how long it will be before supply is back to normal, Babcock said: “We will not return to normal unless bird flu recedes in nature or laying hens develop resistance to the disease.”

If supply does return to “normal,” Babcock says egg prices could drop by between 45 and 65 percent. Egg prices will begin to fall when facilities can replace “destroyed hens.”

On the issue of human transmission, Morrison assured that there is little risk associated with handling raw eggs or chicken meat, but not zero.

“While it is unlikely that eggs from virus-infected flocks are making it to supermarket shelves, influenza viruses can transmit from infected hens to the shell and internal contents of their eggs,” she said. “Cooking eggs until the yolks and whites are solid will kill any viruses present.”

In terms of future solutions, the experts said that a combination of agricultural policy interventions, the development of a new vaccine and utilizing trade with other countries could mitigate the damage consumers and egg producers are feeling.

Read the full Q&A from UC Riverside here.

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