RIVERSIDE, CA — As avian flu continues to spread among laying hens, livestock, and even humans, Riverside County residents may be wondering when relief will come as egg prices soar amid supply shortages.
Last week, four experts at the University of California, Riverside, discussed what residents should know about the worst bird flu outbreak in recent memory.
The university recently interviewed the following experts: Bruce Babcock, associate dean and professor of public policy with expertise in agricultural economics; Amy Murillo, assistant professor of veterinary entomology; Juliet Morrison, assistant professor of microbiology and plant pathology; and Michael Bates, assistant professor of economics.
The university faculty discussed high prices, when consumers may see relief and how farmers are faring in the war against the zoonotic outbreak.
Though farmers are deeply entrenched in the situation, households are likely only feeling it in their pocketbooks when facing sticker shock at the supermarket.
The average price per dozen was $4.10 at the end of 2024, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Now, a dozen eggs at a local grocery could cost anywhere from $8 to $10.
Bates addressed the issue of families on a fixed income.
“Since other common sources of protein such as beef, pork, and poultry are generally more expensive, price increases to eggs can be particularly painful, and particularly so for low-earners who may rely more on them,” he told the university.
Bates also noted that the price of eggs was rising before bird flu cases began spiking again last April.
“But the recent drastic rise in prices seems primarily driven by the outbreak,” he said, noting that a similar but less drastic price surge happened with bird flu in January 2023.
Babcock says that egg prices have surged because the supply of eggs has dropped due to the severe outbreak. That’s because the only way to slow the disease spread is to euthanize laying hens after an outbreak is detected at a production facility.
Since January 2024, more than 157 million chickens have been affected by bird flu, according to Murillo, who also noted that there is no treatment for the highly contagious bird flu.
“Infected chickens show signs of severe illness or death very quickly, and the current standard practice is to euthanize the entire flock if the virus is detected on a property,” she said.
A farm also cannot bring back replacement chickens for at least a month after an outbreak is detected.
Going back to this issue of cost, Babcock says the egg supply was about 7 to 10 percent lower than it was expected to be without bird losses.
“Egg prices are highly sensitive to changes in supply,” he said.
The United States Department of Agriculture reported that as of November of last year, stocking densities are down about 3 percent compared to the previous year — but chicken egg and meat demand is up, contributing further to high prices and shortages, Murrillo said.
In response to a question about how long it will be before supply is back to normal, Babcock said: “We will not return to normal unless bird flu recedes in nature or laying hens develop resistance to the disease.”
If supply does return to “normal,” Babcock says egg prices could drop by between 45 and 65 percent. Egg prices will begin to fall when facilities can replace “destroyed hens.”
On the issue of human transmission, Morrison assured that there is little risk associated with handling raw eggs or chicken meat, but not zero.
“While it is unlikely that eggs from virus-infected flocks are making it to supermarket shelves, influenza viruses can transmit from infected hens to the shell and internal contents of their eggs,” she said. “Cooking eggs until the yolks and whites are solid will kill any viruses present.”
In terms of future solutions, the experts said that a combination of agricultural policy interventions, the development of a new vaccine and utilizing trade with other countries could mitigate the damage consumers and egg producers are feeling.
Read the full Q&A from UC Riverside here.
