We can get the national analysis out of the way: There was a higher than expected increase in the employment numbers (275,000) while the even higher initially released January numbers were revised downwards to more reasonable levels (229,000). Yes, the unemployment rate did increase from 3.7% to 3.9%, but that was due to healthy employment growth being outpaced by an even larger increase in the labor force.

Since then, the inflation numbers have also been published, and while they did not improve further and by the magnitude we’d hoped for, the U.S. economy continues to be on a path for a soft landing (reducing inflation rates to 2% without creating a recession).

This is important, because the Federal Reserve would be less likely to lower interest rates during summer if the job market was as hot as initially estimated and inflation remains sticky above the 2% target. The central bank left interest rates unchanged after its meeting last week, but indicated it is close to start lowering the interest rates as policy makers become confident that “it will be appropriate to dial back.” Chairman Jerome Powell said they were “not far from it.” As the UCLA Anderson Forecast put it in its most recent report, we are on a path to normalcy.

Now let us focus on our state and region. For the Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario Metropolitan Statistical Area, some of the annual revisions were substantial. In the Inland Empire, the Logistics industry lost significantly more jobs (some 5,000 depending on which month you focus on) since last summer than originally assumed and shows a steeper downward trend. On the other hand, Education and Health Services has gained more jobs than previously thought, roughly 10,000 more and the numbers are trending upward, confirming it as the sector with the largest share of labor in the Inland Empire.

The headline news for the Inland Empire is that the unemployment rate jumped up by half percentage points, increasing significantly from 5.0% to 5.5%. Since the Inland Empire’s economy is often described as “first in, last out,” shall we take this as the first sign of the national economy tanking after all, resulting in a “hard landing” (decrease in inflation coinciding with a recession)?

The initially bleak picture is simply an artifact of the data, generated by regularly occurring seasonal patterns. Without getting too technical, we will try to convince you that you should look at seasonally adjusted data rather than the raw data from the EDD. While for some months the difference is negligible, in January it is particularly high, since there are layoffs every year due to the post-holiday season. It is not surprising that the largest raw data (non-seasonally adjusted) employment losses for the Inland Empire came in Retail Trade, Logistics, and Leisure and Hospitality. Filtering out these effects is important since they give a misleading picture of the underlying economy. Total employment reported did not go down 32,300 (which would represent an alarming 2%); instead, it went up by 4,850.

The increase in employment reported by households (+9,100) aligned with the increase in establishment employment (+4,850). Residency measured employment increased by more than what establishments reported. This is probably due to commuters, most of whom work in the coastal areas. The employment status of these commuters is reported by households in the region, not by establishments. This means that significant job growth among commuters could explain the difference for January.

Let us get more specific. Compared to the bleak picture painted by the raw establishment data (decreases of -8,200 in Retail Trade, -7,400 in Logistics, -6,500 in Professional and Business Services, and -3,700 in Leisure and Hospitality), the numbers we get after accounting for seasonal patterns are more positive. The biggest decrease was seen in Professional and Business Services (almost -1,200), at only roughly a fifth of what non-seasonally adjusted data indicated. For Retail Trade (-500), Logistics (+250), and Leisure and Hospitality (-700) numbers also look less worrisome. Bottom line: Do not make major decisions based on non-seasonally adjusted data.

Applying standard statistical techniques to remove seasonal regularities results in the (seasonally adjusted) unemployment rate actually falling by 0.1 percentage points from 5.7% to 5.6% in the Inland Empire.

The change came in the healthiest way possible: through a simultaneous increase in employment and labor force, the former outpacing the latter (+9,100 and +6,200, respectively). After six consecutive months of increases in the civilian unemployment rate, this is encouraging. The result holds despite the fact we only observed significant employment increases during three months in 2023.

The Inland Empire will need more time to recover from the very concerning decreases of 12,800 for the labor force and 13,600 for employment observed between November and December. Despite this, the Inland Empire continues to be the poster child of the economic recovery from the COVID-19 recession,. While we will continue to see some structural adjustment between the industries of the region, we are on a positive path as far as the economy is concerned.

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Nov. 30, 2022 will be marked in the history books as the day when a large share of the population, not only in the United States but in the world, started to become aware of Artificial Intelligence. A new application called ChatGPT was released to the public, and was able to write entire texts, including essays, research papers, or news articles in a level of quality never seen before. If prompted, it could even mimic the style of authors such as Shakespeare.

The opportunities in terms of text creation and processing seemed limitless, at least at first. Websites and Twitter posts appeared, instructing users on how to best use this new technology. Newspaper articles discussed its potential and its limits. Reports emerged about people and even entire companies implementing the new technology into their workflows. No question, the age of the fourth industrial revolution, previously associated primarily with robots swarming the machine rooms of manufacturing companies, seemed to have arrived in a new form.

After the initial hype settled, limitations of the new technology became more apparent. Out of curiosity, I asked ChatGPT about who I am, just to find out that it attributed awards to me that I never received. Perhaps the program “thought” that by flattering me, I would be less critical of its development? While many questions, such as “Do we still need to teach our kids how to write or will this skill share the fate of mental arithmetic?” or “Will future students use ChatGPT to compose all of their essays?” remain open for discussion, the immediately relevant economic policy inquiry centers on whether or not this new technology will kill jobs.

Note that AI is just the latest addition to the “man vs. machine” book with the first chapter composed back in the early 1800s focusing on the Luddites. The latest entry started when every cell phone carried an assistant such as Siri, Cortana, Bixby or Google’s Assistant. What is new is the advent of a family of AI applications that can fulfill complex tasks.

What are the likely effects this new technology will have on employment and the workforce in the Inland Empire? The short answer is: not that much more than what other automation technologies already will do to employment in the region. The reason for this perhaps surprising statement lies in the interaction between the occupational composition of the labor force and its educational attainment.

Before diving into details, note that ChatGPT is just one of many members of a large family of new AI applications. These are referred to as “generative artificial intelligence,” or short, “generative AI.” These types of programs are capable of creating seemingly entirely new content, such as long and consistent text, pictures, or computer code. They can answer questions about a text or summarize it automatically. Thus text generation, as it became available thanks to ChatGPT, is only one of many applications that have the potential to change the way we approach certain tasks.

Next, I asked ChatGPT to write a 750 word essay on the effect that generative AI will have on employment in the Inland Empire. The answer I received was stunning as it covered important aspects, but in a rather generic way. It came in typical high school/college style with definitions plus some examples on the industry level of its effects – some of which were actually incorrectly attributed to AI. Remarkably, ChatGPT recognizes its own potential as a job killer and advocates mitigating policies to help those displaced by its potential effects on employment.

Here are the reasons I see why Inland Empire employment will likely not be much affected by ChatGPT.

Consider some applications in the workplace: designers will use it to draft sketches, teachers to grade homework or exams, real estate agents to write their posts, and managers to generate drafts for memos. But this, in itself, will not eliminate many jobs – in excess of the general automation potential that already exists in the Inland Empire. Recall that the region is in the top five nationally in terms of susceptibility to automation – and No. 1 in California. Generative AI may cost a few extra jobs directly. However it will not add much to the existing threat, at least not directly.

ChatGPT has in common with many generative AI systems — they target white collar jobs.

The IE simply does not have as many of these as other regions in California. This does not mean that there is nothing to worry about. On the contrary, ChatGPT is only the overture to the arrival of a slew of new technologies that potentially will be highly disruptive. Due to its applicability in everyday life, ChatGPT has become highly visible. But many less visible systems are waiting, and the ones most consequential for the Inland Empire will be those in the Logistics Industry. These will find a rich environment for application: IE jobs in transportation and material moving occupations have increased from about 100k to almost 250k over the last decade: this concentration in Logistics makes the region highly susceptible to general automation as about 75% of those jobs – with the largest total wage bill by occupation received by those workers – are technically automatable, even without generative AI.

Overall, 50% of our top 10 occupations face a technical automation potential of 75% or more. The share of workers in our region susceptible specifically to AI (in excess of general automation) is roughly half that number – we simply do not have enough white collar workers who reside in the Inland Empire that could be affected – which sadly also means not enough to benefit from AI’s productivity increase.

A risk that lurks is how much generative AI will affect our coastal neighbors, namely the Greater Los Angeles area (Orange County, LA County) and San Diego County. Due to their higher share of white collar jobs in the workforce, those counties are more susceptible to AI driven automation. If those counties shed white collar jobs, this will spill over into the Inland Empire as laid off workers spend less money at the places they reside: This implies lower demand for services in the coastal communities, hurting blue collar commuters from the Inland Empire. As commuters from the Inland Empire who hold white collar jobs get laid off, this will also lower service demand for blue collar work in the Inland Empire.

The Inland Empire needs to keep a watch on automation.

While the initial wave arrived quite some time ago, it is now about to develop the potential to disrupt the local job markets. When and where this will be most visible, we will have to see – but one thing is clear: ChatGPT already writes the shadow of its own effects on the workforce onto the wall.

• DISCLAIMER: The opinions, beliefs and viewpoints expressed by the various author’s articles on this Opinion piece or elsewhere online or in the newspaper where we have articles with the header “COLUMN/EDITORIAL & OPINION” do not necessarily reflect the opinions, beliefs and viewpoints or official policies of the Publisher, Editor, Reporters or anybody else in the Staff of the Hemet and San Jacinto Chronicle Newspaper.

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Jobs, jobs, jobs. Signs are up in stores and other business windows all over the country. Go online and there are thousands of jobs in every category under the sun. So why is it that when you submit dozens of requests for applications (and you submit them), you aren’t getting hired, despite the fact that you are more than just qualified? Your resume would make any employer delighted to bring you aboard. The past couple of weeks, I’ve spoken to dozens of men who find themselves in that situation. Qualified but no thanks. Over-qualification is a red light of age discrimination. The resume is great except for one flaw. You are too old. Oh, they don’t tell you that because they would be admitting that they are in violation of the law.

Age discrimination is a rapidly growing crime problem in the State of California. You ask if it is a crime. You bet it is and employers are practicing that crime every day. Remember the last time you applied for employment and thought you were a shoe-in? They never called back. Know what happened? You were a victim of age discrimination in the workplace.

You say, “I’m only 53 and my doctor says I’m in perfect health.” All true, but you have a disease that is common to millions. You are too old. You can argue your case all day but you contacted the age disease the day you turned 41. Forty is the cut-off age is 40; employers are not looking for middle-aged help even though they are the most dependable and are not all-night party animals. They are usually settled in with families and not likely to be fly-by-night employees who will walk away without notice.

That is the least noticeable age discrimination. It is even worse for a long-time employee looking forward to retirement in a few years, who suffers from employers who continue to find fault with you as near retirement. Some are getting cut off from their pensions because of age discrimination. It is often coupled with elder abuse. Maybe you thought that to be something happening in the family. It is common in the workplace.

Most times, when a company or business seems to be concentrating on younger employees, they are either unknowingly or intentionally practicing age discrimination. In California, it is unlawful to lay off staff based on age, yet it is a common practice to do so. The Older Workers Benefit Protection Act (OWBPA) is a federal law that explicitly prevents age discrimination in staff reductions, corporate restructurings, and in the offering of employee benefits.

So, the next time you see a healthy man, well-qualified for work, not employed, don’t be so quick to call him a bum. He may be the victim of age discrimination in the workplace. Pillars of the community practice such discrimination in their businesses every day. Just sayin’

rusty strait@gmail.com

• DISCLAIMER: The opinions, beliefs and viewpoints expressed by the various author’s articles on this Opinion piece or elsewhere online or in the newspaper where we have articles with the header “COLUMN/EDITORIAL & OPINION” do not necessarily reflect the opinions, beliefs and viewpoints or official policies of the Publisher, Editor, Reporters or anybody else in the Staff of the Hemet and San Jacinto Chronicle Newspaper.

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WASHINGTON (AP) — More Americans applied for jobless benefits last week as the number of unemployed continues to rise modestly, though the labor market remains one of the strongest parts of the U.S. economy.

Applications for jobless aid for the week ending July 30 rose by 6,000 to 260,000 from the previous week’s 254,000, the Labor Department reported Thursday. First-time applications generally reflect layoffs.

The four-week average for claims, which evens out the weekly ups and downs, also rose from the previous week, to 254,750.

The total number of Americans collecting jobless benefits for the week ending July 23 rose by 48,000 from the previous week, to 1,416,000. That figure has been near 50-year lows for months.

On Tuesday, the Labor Department reported that American employers posted fewer job openings in June as the economy contends with persistently high inflation and rising interest rates.

Job openings fell to a still-high 10.7 million in June from 11.3 million in May. Job openings, which never exceeded 8 million in a month before last year, had topped 11 million every month from December through May before dipping in June.

The Labor Department’s jobs report for July, due out Friday, is expected to show that employers tacked on another 250,000 jobs last month, which would be a healthy number in normal times but would be the lowest since December 2020, when the global economy was being ravaged by the pandemic.

Economists expect the unemployment rate to hold at 3.6% for the fifth straight month.

Though the labor market is still considered strong, there have been some high-profile layoffs announced recently by Tesla, Netflix, Carvana, Redfin and Coinbase. A host of other companies, particularly in the tech sector, have announced hiring freezes.

Other indicators point to some weakness in the U.S. economy. The government said last week that the U.S. economy shrank 0.9% in the second quarter, the second straight quarterly contraction.

Consumer prices are still soaring, up 9.1% in June compared with a year earlier, the biggest yearly increase in four decades. In response, the Federal Reserve raised its main borrowing rate by another three-quarters of a point last week. That follows June’s three-quarter point hike and another half-point increase in May.

Higher rates have already sent home sales tumbling, made the prospect of buying a new car more burdensome and pushed credit card rates up.

All of those factors paint a divergent and confusing picture of the post-pandemic economy: Inflation is hammering household budgets, forcing consumers to pull back on spending, and growth is weakening, heightening fears the economy could fall into recession.

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California Family Rights Act

AB 1033 cleans up and builds upon last year’s SB 1383, which dramatically expanded the California Family Rights Act (CFRA) to cover small employers and expanded the definition of family member for whom leave could be taken. This new bill clarifies that employees can take family and medical leave to care for a parent-in-law with a serious health condition.

AB 1033 also revises and adds more detailed provisions to the small employer (five to 19 employees) mediation program originally created in 2020 by AB 1867, including making participation in the mediation program a prerequisite to the employee filing a civil action. The revisions to the program should help more small businesses become aware of their ability to resolve CFRA disputes through mediation rather than costly civil litigation.

Safety and Wage Enforcement and Penalties

SB 606 expands the enforcement authority of the California Division of Occupational Safety and Health (Cal/OSHA) by creating two new violations categories for which Cal/OSHA can issue citations — “enterprise-wide” violations and “egregious” violations.

This bill creates a rebuttable presumption that a violation committed by an employer with multiple worksites is “enterprise-wide” if the employer has a written policy or procedure that violates certain safety rules or Cal/OSHA has evidence of a pattern or practice. Cal/OSHA may issue an enterprise-wide citation requiring abatement if employer fails to rebut presumption. Enterprise-wide citations will carry the same penalties as repeated or willful citations, up to $134,334 per violation.

Cal/OSHA also must issue a citation for an “egregious violation” if the division believes that an employer has willfully and egregiously violated an occupational safety or health standard, order, special order or regulation based on several factors listed in the statute. The bill requires each instance of an employee exposed to that violation to be considered a separate violation for the issuance of fines and penalties.

AB 1003 makes the intentional theft of wages, benefits or compensation in the amount greater than $950 for one employee or more than $2,350 for two or more employees in a consecutive 12-month period punishable as grand theft under the California Penal Code, which prosecutors may charge as a misdemeanor or felony.

SB 572 deals with enforcement of wage liens against employers by adding a provision to the Labor Code allowing the California Labor Commissioner to create, as an alternative to a judgment lien, a lien on real property to secure amounts due to the Commissioner under any final citation, findings or decision.

Settlement Agreements

SB 331 significantly expands on laws passed over the past few of years limiting the ability to use confidentiality clauses in severance and settlement agreements. Prior to SB 331, any settlement agreement in a case where sexual harassment, sexual assault or discrimination based on sex has been alleged couldn’t include a confidentiality provision prohibiting disclosure of information regarding the claim.

SB 331 expands the prohibition to include acts of workplace harassment or discrimination based on any characteristic protected under the Fair Employment and Housing Act, not just those based on sex. While employees cannot be prohibited from discussing underlying facts of the case, employers can still use clauses that prevent the disclosure of the amount paid to settle the claim. SB 331 will apply to agreements entered on or after January 1, 2022.

Industry-Specific Measures

AB 701 specifically targets warehouse distribution centers. The new law applies to certain larger employers meeting industry definitions for General Warehousing and Storage, Merchant Wholesalers (Durable and Non-Durable Goods), and Electronic Shopping and Mail-Order Houses. The law requires covered employers to provide each nonexempt employee working at a warehouse distribution center a written description of each quota to which they are subject, including tasks to be performed, materials produced or handled, time periods and any potential adverse employment actions that may result from failure to meet quotas.

Under AB 701, employees cannot be required to meet quotas that prevent compliance with meal or rest periods, use of bathroom facilities, or health and safety laws. If employees feel that quotas are interfering with these things, they can request a copy of applicable quotas and the last 90 days of their personal work speed performance, which the employer must produce within three weeks. The law also creates a rebuttable presumption of retaliation if the employer takes adverse action against an employee within 90 days of the employees request for their quota and personal work speed performance or an employee’s complaint about a quota.

SB 62 requires garment manufacturers and “brand guarantors” who contract with another person for the performance of garment manufacturing to be jointly and severally liable with manufacturers or contractors for wage violations of employees in the supply chain. For purposes of expanding the shared liability under this law, the bill expands the definition of garment manufacturing. SB 62 also prohibits the practice of piece-rate compensation for garment manufacturing, except in cases of worksites covered by a valid collective bargaining agreement. The bill imposes statutory damages of $200 per employee against a garment manufacturer or contractor, payable to the employee, for each pay period in which each employee is paid by piece rate.

AB 73 expands on one of last year’s personal protective equipment (PPE) bills, SB 275, which established a state stockpile of PPE in the event of a pandemic. AB 73 broadens the scope of the law to include wildfire smoke events as a health emergency under the law and includes agricultural workers in the definition of essential workers. The bill also requires Cal/OSHA to review and update wildfire smoke training, which employers must follow.

COVID-19

The Governor signed AB 654, which clarifies and cleans up last year’s COVID-19 notice and reporting bill, AB 685. As previously reported, the bill revises the language 685 used to describe COVID-19 notice requirements to make it more consistent throughout. This was an urgency measure that took effect immediately upon signing.

Under SB 336, when the California Department of Public Health (CDPH) or a local health officer issues an order or mandatory COVID-19-related guidance, they must publish the order or guidance on their website along with the date that the order or guidance takes effect. The CDPH or local health officer must also create an opportunity to sign up for an email distribution list to receive updates on the order or guidance. This measure will hopefully make it easier for businesses to track and implement the most current COVID-19 orders and guidance. SB 336 also went into effect immediately upon signing.

In addition to the new laws, employers should continue to monitor additional COVID-19 regulatory developments. As previously reported, the Cal/OSHA COVID-19 Emergency Temporary Standard may be re-adopted with amendments this winter. Additionally, a federal emergency regulation related to vaccines is on its way, after which Cal/OSHA will be required to adopt an equivalent or more stringent standard within 30 days.

—

James W. Ward, J.D., Employment Law Subject Matter Expert/Legal Writer and Editor, CalChamber

James W. Ward | CalChamber

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The services provided through the CWT program are integrated with clinical care to assist Veterans with serious mental illness, Post-traumatic Stress Disorder, polytrauma and traumatic brain injury, substance use disorder, homelessness, and other psychosocial issues that may interfere with securing meaningful employment. 

“The core philosophy of compensated work therapy is that given the right support, all persons with a disability can contribute productively to the workforce,” said National Director of Veterans Health Administration Vocational Rehabilitation Service Shana K. Bakken, Ph.D. “VHA’s vocational rehabilitation teams are working to ensure every Veteran who has a goal of employment has the opportunity to make a worthwhile contribution in their local communities through meaningful work.” 

Veteran and VA File Clerk Mike Onrubia credits VA Vocational Rehabilitation Specialist Holly Starks with helping him get a job at the Hampton VA Healthcare System which he says helped turn his life around. 

“I applied for the File Clerk/Scanner position at Hampton VA and started work the day after Labor Day and I love my job,” said Onrubia. “For the first time in over a decade, I feel like I can work toward my dream of working as a social worker and then a psychologist, helping out my fellow Veterans and giving them hope like Ms. Starks did for me. My daughter is in school and I look forward to going back myself, all thanks to Ms. Holly Starks.”  

This is an example of how VA’s integrated care positively affects a Veteran’s whole well-being, to include financial independence.

Often, individuals with disabilities have been placed in sheltered workshops and sheltered employment, which may separate them from workers in the general population. In August, VA discontinued operations of prevocational programs, including sheltered workshops and programs that pay sub-minimum wage.

CWT programs are located at all VA health care systems across the nation and VA staff have developed partnerships with local, regional and national businesses, industry and government agencies to provide Veteran candidates for employment.

VA employs over 800 rehabilitation counselors, vocational rehabilitation specialists, managers and peer support specialists who provide services to more than 52,000 Veterans each year within the VA health care system.  

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WASHINGTON (AP) — One reason America’s employers are having trouble filling jobs was starkly illustrated in a report Tuesday: Americans are quitting in droves.

The Labor Department said that quits jumped to 4.3 million in August, the highest on records dating back to December 2000, and up from 4 million in July. That’s equivalent to nearly 3% of the workforce. Hiring also slowed in August, the report showed, and the number of jobs available fell to 10.4 million, from a record high of 11.1 million the previous month.

The data helps fill in a puzzle that is looming over the job market: Hiring slowed sharply in August and September, even as the number of posted jobs was near record levels. In the past year, open jobs have increased 62%. Yet overall hiring, as measured by Tuesday’s report, has actually declined slightly during that time.

The jump in quits strongly suggests that fear of the delta variant is partly responsible for the shortfall in workers. In addition to driving quits, fear of the disease probably caused plenty of those out of work to not look for, or take, jobs.

As COVID-19 cases surged in August, quits soared in restaurants and hotels from the previous month and rose in other public-facing jobs, such as retail and education. Nearly 900,000 people left jobs at restaurants, bars, and hotels in August, up 21% from July. Quits by retail workers rose 6%.

Yet in industries such as manufacturing, construction, and transportation and warehousing, quits barely increased. In professional and business services, which includes fields such as law, engineering, and architecture, where most employees can work from home, quitting was largely flat.

Other factors also likely contributed to the jump in quits. With many employers desperate for workers and wages rising at a healthy pace, workers have a much greater ability to demand higher pay, or go elsewhere to find it.

The data from August is probably too early to reflect the impact of vaccine mandates. President Joe Biden’s mandate was not announced until Sept. 9. United Airlines announced its mandate in early August, but it was one of the first companies to do so. And layoffs were unchanged in August, the report found.

The government said Friday that job gains were weak for a second straight month in September, with only 194,000 jobs added, though the unemployment rate fell to 4.8% from 5.2%. Friday’s hiring figure is a net total, after quits, retirements, and layoffs are taken into account. Tuesday’s report, known as the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey, or JOLTS, includes raw figures, and showed that total hiring in August fell sharply, to 6.3 million from 6.8 million in July.

The data is “highlighting the immense problems businesses are dealing with,” said Jennifer Lee, an economist at BMO Capital Markets, in an email. “Not enough people. Not enough equipment and/or parts. Meantime, customers are waiting for their orders, or waiting to place their orders. What a strange world this is.”

Quits also rose the most in the South and Midwest, the government said, the two regions with the worst COVID outbreaks in August.

When workers quit, it is typically seen as a good sign for the job market, because people usually leave jobs when they already have other positions or are confident they can find one. The large increase in August probably does reflect some of that confidence among workers.

But the fact that the increase in quits was heavily concentrated in sectors that involve close contact with the public is a sign that fear of COVID also played a large role. Many people may have quit even without other jobs to take.

The sharp increase in job openings also has an international dimension: Job vacancies have reached a record level in the United Kingdom, though that is partly because many European workers left the U.K. after Brexit.

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