The contest will determine who advances in the race to replace Gov. Gavin Newsom, who is leaving office at the end of the year because of term limits. Results are expected to begin arriving Tuesday night, though the final count could take days or weeks as counties process ballots.

The election comes as Californians confront a long list of urgent problems: high housing and living costs, some of the nation’s highest gasoline prices, wildfire threats that have shaken the insurance market, uncertainty in the state budget, expected federal cuts to California’s health care programs and economic disruption tied to immigration enforcement.

Former California Attorney General Xavier Becerra, a Democrat who also served as U.S. Health and Human Services secretary, entered Election Day as the leading Democrat in late polling. Becerra has campaigned on pledges to confront President Donald Trump’s administration and to freeze insurance and utility rates. He also has drawn support from much of the Democratic establishment.

Republican Steve Hilton, a former Fox News host endorsed by Trump, was polling in second place before Election Day after consolidating conservative support. Hilton has promised to reduce income taxes and roll back environmental rules.

But billionaire climate activist Tom Steyer, a progressive Democrat who has poured $213 million of his own money into the race, remained in contention for one of the two general election spots. Late polls showed Becerra with support from about one-quarter of likely voters, while Steyer and Hilton were in a close fight for second place.

Election analysts said the uncertainty among Democratic voters may have affected the final days of voting, with some waiting to see which candidate appeared best positioned to advance.

“Those polls could become self-fulfilling,” said Paul Mitchell, a Democratic strategist whose firm tracks ballot returns.

The governor’s race is the top statewide contest on Tuesday’s ballot. Democrats are heavily favored in November in a state where they hold nearly twice as many voter registrations as Republicans. Still, the race carries national weight as California remains a major center of Democratic resistance to the Trump administration.

The field has been unusually wide open by California standards. Unlike past contests shaped by celebrity candidates, political dynasties or dominant statewide figures, no clear Democratic star entered the race. That left a crowded Democratic field and, for a time, raised concern among party leaders that two Republicans could potentially finish first and second under California’s top-two primary system.

That possibility was driven in part by Hilton and Riverside County Sheriff Chad Bianco, a Republican whose campaign drew attention across the Inland Empire and beyond. State Democratic leaders publicly urged lower-polling Democratic candidates to leave the race, but most remained.

The Democratic field shifted when then-Rep. Eric Swalwell dropped out after multiple sexual assault allegations. Becerra benefited from the opening, gaining many of Swalwell’s donors and supporters and rising in polls in the final stretch. Steyer, meanwhile, used heavy advertising to boost his name recognition and appeal to the party’s progressive wing.

Former Rep. Katie Porter, another progressive Democrat, lost ground after allegations about her temperament became a political liability. San Jose Mayor Matt Mahan, a moderate supported by Silicon Valley billionaires, improved from single digits in polling but did not appear to gain enough traction to break into the top tier.

On the Republican side, Trump’s endorsement helped Hilton separate himself from Bianco, reducing the likelihood that two Republicans would advance to November. If Hilton makes the general election, he would face a difficult path in heavily Democratic California.

In the closing weeks, both Hilton and Steyer tried to frame Becerra as the candidate of the political establishment, arguing that California needs dramatic change to address affordability and other crises.

Hilton has centered his campaign on ending what he describes as 16 years of Democratic control in Sacramento. His agenda includes cutting state spending and reversing major liberal policies, including climate mandates, the progressive tax structure and parts of the social safety net.

“After 16 years of everything being in one direction, that’s left a lot of people dissatisfied,” Hilton said last week. “Anybody who wants change or balance in our politics, the only choice is for me.”

Hilton’s years as a television commentator gave him a built-in audience among conservative voters. Nancy LeVesque, a retired salesperson from Roseville, said she already admired Hilton before he ran and considered him an easy choice when she dropped off her ballot Monday at a vote center in Placer County. She said she sees him as an outsider who could change the direction of a state that, in her view, has pushed too many residents away.

“We have lost so many good people” to other states, she said.

Steyer has campaigned as a wealthy progressive willing to challenge powerful industries. He has described himself as a “class traitor” and pledged to lower costs by taking on investor-owned utilities, real estate interests and health insurance companies. His platform includes aggressive climate policies, single-payer health care and higher taxes on the wealthy.

Tina Varnado, a South Sacramento resident and undecided voter, attended a Steyer rally last week hosted by her union, which represents home health aides. Varnado works as a full-time caregiver for her elderly mother and for her adult daughter, who had open-heart surgery. Between her mother’s Social Security benefits and Varnado’s wages as her daughter’s health aide, she said her family spends nearly everything it earns each month just to get by.

“Everything he touched on really touched home for me,” Varnado said after Steyer’s speech. “If we can lower prices, maybe we can start putting money down on a home for my future.”

Becerra has leaned heavily on his decades in public office, including his record as California attorney general, his lawsuits against Trump’s first administration and his leadership at the federal health agency during the COVID-19 pandemic.

That experience helped him win support from groups such as the California Young Democrats, which endorsed him before his recent rise in the polls. Evan Cragin, a member of the organization, said he wants a governor who knows how to use government power to challenge federal actions.

“Secretary Becerra has done that before,” Cragin said.

Speaking Monday at the offices of Planned Parenthood Affiliates of California, Becerra argued that campaign promises mean little without the experience to deliver. He pointed to his work on the Affordable Care Act and his defense of the Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals program as examples of his record.

“You can have all these great inflated promises,” he said. “Getting things done is not easy.”

Original source: CalMatters

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