California’s closely watched June primary ended Tuesday with voters largely lining up behind familiar party favorites, even as ballots remained to be counted in several major races.
The early results pointed to a strong night for Democrats, a rough showing for wealthy self-funded candidates and mixed fortunes for state lawmakers seeking higher office. They also underscored the continued influence of President Donald Trump in California politics, even in a state where Democrats dominate most statewide contests.
In the race for governor, Republican Steve Hilton, a former Fox News host and British-born political adviser, and longtime Democratic officeholder Xavier Becerra held the top two spots needed to advance to the November election. Billionaire Tom Steyer, a former hedge fund executive and major liberal donor, was trailing in third place, though still close enough that the final result was not yet settled. The Associated Press had not called the race.
Veteran California election watchers cautioned that the final count in a June primary can take weeks. Still, several takeaways were already emerging.
Massive personal spending did not guarantee success.
Steyer spent nearly $250 million of his own fortune on a populist-themed campaign for governor. Even if he ultimately moves into the top two, the result would fall well short of the overwhelming breakthrough that such a record-setting investment was intended to produce.
Garry South, a longtime Democratic strategist in California, said heavy self-funding can become a liability when voters are saturated with campaign advertising.
Steyer was not alone. Patrick Wolff put $600,000 of his own money into a campaign for insurance commissioner. Yvonne Yiu spent $750,000 on her bid for the State Board of Equalization. Saikat Chakrabarti financed much of the multimillion-dollar effort behind his campaign to succeed Nancy Pelosi in Congress. In Los Angeles, Zach Sokoloff spent $1 million of his own money, with millions more from his mother, in an effort to unseat the city controller.
Chakrabarti failed to make the top two, losing out to state Sen. Scott Wiener and San Francisco Supervisor Connie Chan. As of Wednesday morning, the other self-funded candidates were also trailing in their races.
The results were better for more traditional Democrats.
Although anti-establishment politics remains a national force, California voters appeared willing to back experienced Democratic officeholders. Andrew Sinclair, a political science professor at Claremont McKenna College, said Democratic voters seemed to be looking for candidates who could take on Trump.
That helped explain Becerra’s rise after the political collapse of former front-runner Eric Swalwell. Like Swalwell, Becerra brought years of experience in public office and a clear record of opposition to Trump. Sinclair described Becerra as a conventional Democrat who fits the moment for voters focused on fighting Republicans.
Steyer’s status as a billionaire also gave opponents an easy line of attack. And Democrats worried about being shut out of the general election appeared inclined to consolidate behind the candidate polling strongest.
Several Democratic members of Congress also appeared to be holding off younger, more progressive challengers, or at least keeping them in second place. That group included Mike Thompson, Brad Sherman and Doris Matsui.
Party labels continued to matter.
California adopted its top-two primary system in 2010, with supporters arguing it would reduce partisan gridlock by placing all candidates on the same ballot and allowing the two highest vote-getters to advance, regardless of party. The idea was to encourage candidates with broader appeal to the political center.
But statewide governor’s races have continued to follow a familiar partisan pattern. Despite speculation in past years about two Democrats advancing, including the possibility of Gavin Newsom facing Antonio Villaraigosa in 2018 or Becerra facing Steyer this year, California’s gubernatorial general elections have continued to feature one Democrat and one Republican.
The same pattern appeared likely in the races for lieutenant governor and treasurer, where Democrats and Republicans held the top two positions. The main exception, as of Wednesday, was the race for insurance commissioner, where Democrats Jane Kim and state Sen. Ben Allen appeared positioned to advance to November.
Democrats avoided their feared lockout scenario.
For months, party leaders worried that a crowded Democratic field for governor could split the vote and allow two Republicans — Hilton and Riverside County Sheriff Chad Bianco — to claim the top two spots.
That possibility prompted state Democratic Party Chair Rusty Hicks to commission polling in an effort to pressure lower-polling Democratic candidates to leave the race. Almost none did.
Whether Democratic voters strategically rallied to prevent that outcome, or whether the threat was never as serious as feared, the lockout now appears unlikely.
California Democrats have faced similar anxieties before. In 2018, crowded Democratic congressional primaries raised concerns that Republicans could capture both general election spots in competitive districts. That did not happen, and Democrats went on to make major gains in the general election. Democrats also worried during the gubernatorial recall election that a procedural misstep might help Republicans take the governorship. Gov. Gavin Newsom ultimately defeated the recall by a wide margin.
One of the most notable top-two surprises in recent years came in a conservative state Senate district in the Sierra Nevada foothills in 2022, when a crowded Republican field split the vote and allowed two Democrats to advance. The winner, Sen. Marie Alvarado-Gil, later switched parties and joined the Republicans. As of early Wednesday, she was running third in her reelection campaign behind Democrat Jaron Brandon and Republican Alexandra Duarte.
State legislative credentials did not always travel well.
Anthony Rendon, the former speaker of the California Assembly, was once among the most powerful officials in state government. But that influence did not translate into success in the largely nonpartisan race for state superintendent of public instruction. As of Wednesday, Rendon was in fourth place.
State Sen. Anna Caballero, a Merced Democrat who once led the influential Senate Appropriations Committee, was trailing badly in her campaign for treasurer, behind Lt. Gov. Eleni Kounalakis and Republican Jennifer Hawks. Assemblymember Jasmeet Bains, a moderate Democrat, was also behind in her effort to challenge Republican Rep. David Valadao in the Central Valley, with college professor Randy Villegas, backed by Sen. Bernie Sanders, holding second place. Former state Sen. Steven Bradford was in eighth place in the insurance commissioner race.
There were successes for some state lawmakers. Allen was in second place for insurance commissioner, while Wiener and state Sen. Aisha Wahab, both Bay Area Democrats, were leading comfortably in their congressional races.
Original source: CalMatters
