The countywide jobless rate in March, based on preliminary EDD estimates, was 5.1%, compared to 5.4% in February.

According to figures, the March rate equaled the year-ago level, when countywide unemployment also stood at 5.1%.

EDD posted its most recent data outside of the agency’s usual schedule due to an annual statistical revision process done in concert with the U.S. Department of Labor known as “benchmarking,” which is intended to improve the accuracy of results. The process will wrap up this month, at which point jobless numbers for the last year will be fully updated and available.

The latest agency estimates indicated that Cherry Valley had the highest unemployment rate within the county during March at 9.5%, followed by Blythe at 9.4%, Coachella at 7.7%, Rancho Mirage and March Air Reserve Base, each at 7.5%, and Cabazon and Hemet, each at 7.1%.

The combined unemployment rate for Riverside and San Bernardino counties — the Inland Empire — was also 5.1%, down from 5.3% in February, the EDD said.

Bi-county data indicated that payrolls expanded by the widest margin in healthcare services, where 6,400 positions were added in March.

Additional gains were recorded in the agricultural, construction, information technology and public sectors, which altogether grew by an aggregate 3,500 positions, figures showed. Miscellaneous unclassified industries similarly posted an increase of 200 jobs.

Payrolls declined by the largest amount in the broad category designated trade, transportation and utilities, where an estimated 2,600 jobs were lost in March, mainly in warehousing. The financial services, hospitality, manufacturing and professional business services sectors sank by a total 2,500 positions, according to EDD.

The mining sector was unchanged.

The statewide non-seasonally-adjusted unemployment rate in March was 5.2%.

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The unemployment rate in Riverside County declined marginally through the winter season amid a mix of payroll losses and gains, according to figures released Friday by the California Employment Development Department.

The countywide jobless rate in February, based on preliminary EDD estimates, was 5.4%, compared to 5.5% in January.

According to figures, the February rate was two-tenths of a percentage point above the year-ago level, when countywide unemployment stood at 5.2%.

EDD posted the data outside of its usual schedule due to an annual statistical revision process done in concert with the U.S. Department of Labor known as “benchmarking,” which is intended to improve accuracy of results. The process will wrap up toward the end of the month, at which point jobless numbers will be fully updated.

The latest agency estimates indicated that Cherry Valley had the highest unemployment rate within the county in February at 10%, followed by Blythe at 9.8%, Coachella at 8.1%, Rancho Mirage at 7.9% and March Air Reserve Base at 7.8%

The combined unemployment rate for Riverside and San Bernardino counties — the Inland Empire — was 5.3%, down from 5.4% in January, the EDD stated.

Bi-county data indicated that payrolls contracted by the widest margin in the broad category designated trade, transportation and utilities, where 7,700 positions were lost, mainly in logistics and warehousing.

Additional losses were recorded in the agricultural, financial services, health services, manufacturing and public sectors, which altogether shed an aggregate 7,000 positions, figures showed.

Payroll gains were recorded in the construction, hospitality and professional business services sectors, which expanded by a total 1,500 jobs, while miscellaneous unclassified industries added another 100.

The mining and information technology sectors were unchanged.

The statewide non-seasonally adjusted unemployment rate in February was 5.5%.

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The Inland Empire Economic Partnership released its economic analysis and forecast for 2026 at its State of the Region event last month. We presented the national and state outlook previously. Now, we’ll focus on the current economic situation in the Inland Empire and the short-term and long-term outlook. A subsequent piece will look at the housing market.

2025 was not an easy year for the Inland Empire economy. The Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario Metropolitan Statistical Area, known as the Inland Empire (Riverside County and San Bernardino County), made it through the year primarily on the strength of a few industries. Looking at the region’s economic activity, we think of it as a house with a good view that is supported by three stilts. These are logistics, health industries, and local government expenditures, primarily public education. Take away one of the pillars, and the house will tumble. Over the last year, two of these three industries prevented the area from experiencing a significant number of job losses.

In 2025, there were only 3,200 job gains for the two counties, a 0.2% growth in employment. The two largest employment sectors — health and local government — created 24,400 new jobs, meaning all other sectors combined lost 21,100 jobs.

The logistics sector, the third largest employer in the region and the largest in San Bernardino County, lost 6,100 positions, continuing the “freight recession,” which started in mid-2022. Other sectors losing jobs were manufacturing (-3,500), construction (-8,200), professional and business services (200), financial services (-1,200) and information (-500).

The unemployment rate increased slightly from 4.9% to 5.1% during the year. However, this was due to the labor force growth outpacing the employment growth, which is a relatively healthy picture.

The unemployment rate ended up at the same level as the state unemployment rate, which currently is the highest among the 50 states. Both the Inland Empire and the California unemployment rates are a percentage point higher than the national rate.

Looking through 2026, job growth will be weak and will be adversely affected by national policies. Tariffs will have a lingering effect on logistics and cutbacks in Medicaid (MediCal) will temper growth in the health sector. Meanwhile, public education will face challenges in terms of funding cuts and demographics, with the number of school-age children continuing to decline. Most likely we will see a flat or shrinking labor force in the area.

In short, the Inland Empire economy may find itself treading water for most of the year. There are threats to the logistics industry due to the recent price increases at the pump. However, we assume the Middle East conflict will not result in oil prices last reached in 2022, when they were over $130 per barrel.

The long-term outlook for the Inland Empire must be viewed through the lens of today’s economy.

With 4.7 million residents, the region is already the state’s second largest metro area and the 12th largest nationally. The region will grow in the coming years, faster than the coastal counties but at a slower pace than in the past. The foundation of the economy will continue to be logistics, health care and population-serving industries. Because the region’s housing is more affordable than along the coast, and because the coastal counties offer a wider array of jobs, large numbers of workers will choose to live in the region and commute. At recent count, approximately 350,000 commuters endure long commutes. This includes younger members of the workforce, who grew up in the region and attended local colleges, but found more and better employment opportunities elsewhere, since there are too few well-paying job opportunities within the region.

The trajectory of the region can be altered by attracting and growing firms in industries that feature better paying jobs, including those for better-educated workers. These industries can lure workers back.

The challenge is to envision the future the Inland Empire wants and to undertake a strategic plan to realize that vision. The region can identify and attract growth-oriented industries that have the potential to move here and can work alongside the industries that currently support the regional economy. The region’s colleges and universities turn out thousands of graduates each year, but these numbers are not well reflected in the region’s educational attainment statistics: Only 25% of residents ages 25 to 45 hold at least a bachelor’s degree compared to 37% for the state and the nation. Higher paying firms are reluctant to move into the area. While the cost of living in the region is better than in coastal communities, firms that may consider relocating from elsewhere in the country will hesitate because housing costs in the region exceed those in other parts of the country with whom we must compete. The region must take steps to rein in housing costs if it wants to attract firms from outside the state. This means increasing the supply of housing beyond recent levels of new construction, and meeting the housing needs of all households, including market rate housing, affordable housing, and rental housing.

The Inland Empire Economic Partnership’s mission is to help create a regional voice for business and quality of life in Riverside and San Bernardino counties. Its membership includes organizations in the private and public sector.

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Since then, the base off the 215 Freeway just south of Riverside has housed World War II bombers, nuclear-armed B-52s and tanker planes. The newest tenants — next generation KC-46A Pegasus tankers — are expected to keep March open for decades to come.

Before the first of 12 Pegasuses touches down at March in the next few years, major work is needed to prepare for their arrival. That’s happening now thanks to at least $250 million in funding allocated by Congress.

When finished, the upgrades will add a new hangar, flight simulator and other facilities to help the new tankers support the United States’ military prowess by extending the range of warplanes through mid-air refueling.

“This is really great news for March,” said Jamil Dada, the base’s civic leader and board president of the March Field Air Museum.

The combined cost of the tankers and renovations represent a more than $2 billion investment into March, Dada added.

The third oldest U.S. Air Force base in the country — it started as March Field in 1918 — March had to beat out bases nationwide for the right to host the KC-46As.

The Air Force’s 2024 announcement that March will be the tankers’ new home brings stability to an installation that employs almost 10,000 people and injects hundreds of millions of dollars annually into the Inland Empire economy.

Thousands of jobs evaporated when March Air Force Base downsized to an air reserve base in the 1990s. Today, more than 4,000 acres of ex-Air Force base land have been turned into dozens of businesses, parks, trails, senior and veteran housing, a Metrolink station and infrastructure improvements.

While March is technically a reserve base, Dada said it has more activity than a lot of Air Force bases, including F-16 Fighting Falcon jets on around-the-clock alert and MQ-9 Reaper drones.

The KC-46As will replace the base’s KC-135 Stratotankers, an airplane first developed in the 1950s. The new tankers, which can refuel multiple aircraft — the KC-135s can only fill up one at a time — can also carry cargo and passengers and serve as flying ambulances.

The KC-46As need upgraded facilities at March because “the new aircraft requires a lot more space than the old one,” said Air Force Lt. Col. Thomas Smith, who is involved with planning the new buildings and renovations.

One of the first upgrades involved replacing three antennas that are key takeoff and landing aids for pilots. Two new, taller antennas replaced the old ones, which would have been blocked by the upgrades, Smith said.

About $133 million is being spent on a new, two-bay maintenance hangar that will be bigger than its predecessor.

The new hangar will be built slightly higher above the ground to accommodate the KC-46As, according to Smith. Concrete pavement at March is also being ripped up and replaced “so that it ramps up into the new hangar at the proper elevation,” Smith said.

Another upgrade involves renovating a “fuselage trainer” building where aircrews practice procedures like loading cargo into a KC-46A. The existing trainer building “is physically big enough, but it needs new stuff inside of it,” Smith said.

Other projects include a new flight simulator to train on the KC-46As instead of the KC-135s, Smith said. The new tankers will require 144 new military personnel to be assigned to March, he added.

Dada said the KC-46As are due at March in 2028, a timeline delayed by issues at Boeing, the new tankers’ manufacturer.

Because of the delay, “the Pentagon was saying ‘OK, we’re going to use this $250 million for other bases that are already doing stuff now and we’ll have to get you guys more money later,’” Dada said.

That potentially jeopardized the funding because “you don’t know when you’re going to get it back and you may not get it back if there’s a new (presidential) administration,” he said. “Then you lose the airplanes and then you get back in the back of the line to get the airplanes.”

Dada said he joined other civic leaders and lawmakers in a fight to save March’s $250 million allocation. The fact that Rep. Ken Calvert, R-Corona, chairs the House of Representatives’ defense appropriation subcommittee “was a big advantage we had,” Dada added.

“Now that we’ve broken ground, the money is in the bank for March.”

Bringing the KC-46As to March required a collaborative effort involving the government, community leaders like Dada and people at various levels of the Air Force, Smith said.

“It took hundreds of people to make this happen,” he said.

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Assemblymember Corey Jackson, D-Moreno Valley, has reintroduced legislation to lay the groundwork for EV manufacturing and job training in the Inland Empire.

In a phone interview, Jackson said there’s going to be strong demand in the coming years for EVs in California. A 2020 executive order signed by Gov. Gavin Newsom requires zero-emission vehicles to make up 100% of in-state sales of passenger cars by 2035.

“These are still jobs where you don’t need a college degree and you can receive training to be able to either help be a part of the building of electric vehicles, electric batteries and all of the things that go into it,” Jackson said.

Unlike California’s coastal counties, many Inland residents lack college educations. Diversifying the Inland economy is a top priority for many elected leaders in a region dominated by logistics — an industry expected to lose jobs to automation in the years ahead.

AB 72 would create an Electric Vehicle Economic Opportunity Zone in Riverside County “for the purpose of creating programs to make electric vehicle manufacturing jobs and education more accessible to lower income communities,” the bill’s text states.

California’s Labor & Workforce Development Agency would work with schools, EV makers and banks  “to develop … education, training and investment programs” in the zone, the bill read.

Riverside County would work with the state to map the zone’s boundaries, according to the bill. AB 72 would cost the state $5.8 million to start and $1.2 million a year going forward, according to a state analysis of the bill.

AB 72 is similar to AB 2448, which passed the legislature in 2024. Citing “cost pressures” to the state budget, Newsom vetoed the 2024 bill.

Jackson, whose district includes Perris, Moreno Valley, and parts of Riverside, San Jacinto and Hemet, hopes it’s different this time around.

“I know what it’s going to take, and I’m going to have to work on it to get the money necessary into the budget,” Jackson said.

Newsom, the assemblymember said, “only vetoed (the 2024 bill) because the money wasn’t already approved in the budget for it, and as a member of the budget committee and a leader in the budget committee, I’m going to work my butt off to try to get that done.”

Jackson sees parallels between his bill and how Hollywood and Silicon Valley, respectively, became dominant in the entertainment and technology sectors.

“Silicon Valley didn’t become Silicon Valley on its own. Hollywood did not become Hollywood on its own,” he said. “The state purposely invested dollars and incentives for those industries to take root and thrive.”

“The Inland Empire, it’s our turn to get those targeted investments. And our friends, families and neighbors need higher-paying jobs closer to where they live.”

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My trusty spreadsheet looked at the first Consumer Price Index report in two months to see how the cost of living behaved during the federal government’s historic shutdown, both nationally and across three local regions.

The overall U.S. inflation annual rate was 2.7% in November, down from 3% in September. However, progress is modest.

The last time U.S. inflation, as measured by CPI math, was below 2.7% was in May. And November was equal to the 2.7% rate in November 2024. That’s when Donald Trump won his second White House term and promised to quickly fix the nation’s cost-of-living woes.

It’s a different price picture across Southern California.

The Inland Empire posted the region’s fastest inflation rate of 4.5% in November, the highest since September 2023. This was up from 3.6% in September and 1.1% a year earlier.

San Diego County’s inflation rate rose to 4%, the highest since November 2023, up from 3.9% in September and 2.6% a year earlier.

And in Los Angeles and Orange counties, the 3.6% inflation rate was the highest since May 2024. It was 3.5% in September and 3.2% a year earlier.

Ponder some key consumer spending categories within the CPI to get hints at the gaps.

Cooling rents

Price hikes from landlords moderated nationally and in most local regions, as measured by the CPI.

U.S. rents rose at a 3% annual rate in November vs. 3.4% September and 4.4% a year earlier.

L.A.-Orange County rent grew at a 3.4% annual rate in November, off from 3.6% in September and 4.5% a year earlier.

San Diego rents grew 3.9% year over year in November, down from 4% in September and 4.7% a year earlier.

Yet in the Inland Empire, renters paid 5% more in a year in November – down from 5.6% in September but double 2.5% a year earlier.

Goosed by groceries

Costs at the supermarket were mixed.

Nationally, food-at-home prices rose at a 1.9% annual rate in November vs. 2.7% September and 1.6% a year earlier.

L.A.-Orange County’s grocery inflation ran 2.3% in November, down from 2.8% September but faster than the 2% a year earlier.

In the Inland Empire, groceries were 1.1% pricier for November, slower than 1.3% inflation for September – but a reversal from a 0.1% drop a year earlier.

And in San Diego, grocery prices dropped 0.1% in November. That’s an improvement from a 2% gain for September and a 2.4% increase a year earlier.

Pump pain

Last year’s dip in gas prices is a memory – but that pain is greater locally.

Nationally, unleaded regular prices rose at a 0.7% annual rate in November, up from an 8% decline a year earlier.

L.A.-Orange County pumps were priced 8% higher in the year ended in November, erasing much of the 13% drop a year earlier.

In both San Diego and the Inland Empire, unleaded was 7% more expensive in November than a year earlier, down from a 12% drop a year earlier.

Pruned pay hikes

Local inflation hurts even more as raises shrink.

One yardstick of wages and salaries in Los Angeles, Orange, Riverside, San Bernardino and Ventura counties showed compensation growing at a 3.4% annual rate in the third quarter, down from 4.8% in 2024.

Nationally, the Employment Cost Index showed raises slowing to a 3.6% annual rate from 3.8% in the third quarter of 2024.

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The countywide jobless rate in June, based on preliminary EDD estimates, was 6%, compared to 4.9% in May.

According to figures, the June rate was half a percentage point higher than the year-ago level, when countywide unemployment then stood at 5.5%.

The combined unemployment rate for Riverside and San Bernardino counties — the Inland Empire — was 5.9%, up from 4.8% in May, the EDD said.

Data showed Cherry Valley had the highest unemployment rate countywide in June at 12.4%, followed by Rancho Mirage at 9.6%, Coachella at 9.2%, Valle Vista at 8.7% and Blythe at 7.9%.

Bi-county data indicated that payrolls declined by the widest margin last month in the professional business services sector, which shed 2,400 positions.

Further losses were recorded in the trade, transportation and utilities, as well as the health services, sectors, reflecting an aggregate drop of 1,500 jobs.

The construction sector had the greatest gains in June, adding an estimated 1,700 positions, while additional increases were documented in the agricultural, hospitality, manufacturing and public sectors, which altogether swelled by 2,700 jobs, according to figures.

Miscellaneous unclassified industries, along with the financial and information technology sectors, were unchanged.

The statewide non-seasonally-adjusted unemployment rate in June was 5.7%.

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Between January and February, the Inland Empire lost 6,200 nonfarm jobs—a 0.4% decline in total employment. This is a notable reversal from the region’s typical trajectory: over the last five years, the Inland Empire has added more than 10,500 jobs on average during the same period. Sectors that traditionally show modest growth this time of year, such as construction, accommodation and food services, and transportation and warehousing, instead posted net losses.

The warehousing and storage subsector—long a dominant force in the region’s employment landscape—was the primary contributor to this contraction. It lost 6,400 jobs in February alone, a 5% month-over-month decrease. This downturn significantly exceeds the five-year historical average, where job losses in the sector have hovered closer to 1,800. The data points to a deeper shift in the regional logistics economy, which may be grappling with changes in global supply chains, rising automation, and shifts in consumer behavior post-pandemic.

Retail trade and construction also reported notable job losses, falling by 1,700 and 600 positions respectively. In contrast, sectors such as private educational services and health care and social assistance continued to expand, adding 1,100 and 1,200 jobs, respectively—underscoring persistent demand in these essential service industries.

According to Inland Empire Growth and Opportunity (IEGO), these trends highlight the need to align workforce development with evolving industry demand. While the Inland Empire has become a national model for apprenticeship and skills-based training programs, the latest data underscores the importance of accelerating those efforts. IEGO notes that the region’s ability to remain competitive will depend on expanding access to quality employment pathways in health care, clean logistics, and advanced manufacturing—sectors positioned for long-term growth.

“Employers continue to add jobs. The number of people starting to look for work continues to increase. We know the apprenticeship model works—for both employers and workers,” said Matt Mena, Executive Director of IEGO. “While the Inland Empire is a leader in apprenticeship innovation and expansion, we can do more to increase the quality, access, and impact of our region’s apprenticeship programs.”

Also noteworthy is the labor force contraction of 2,100 individuals in February—people who either moved out of the region or stopped actively seeking work. This decrease brings the total civilian labor force in Riverside and San Bernardino counties to 2.231 million, and may explain why the unemployment rate remained flat despite widespread job losses. In short, fewer people looking for work offsets the losses in payroll jobs.

While February’s employment report deviates from historic norms, it also provides a timely reminder of the structural changes shaping the Inland Empire’s economy. Regional leaders have an opportunity to respond with targeted investment in workforce retraining, sectoral partnerships, and job quality initiatives that meet the moment. The numbers reflect more than just a temporary setback—they represent a broader transition and call for strategic action.

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The Inland Empire Economic Partnership recently released its economic outlook showing consumer pessimism about Trump’s vacillating economic policies. The consumer sentiment index plunged in February.

“Certainly the tariffs can and probably will have a negative effect on the economy of the Inland Empire,” said Paul Granillo, CEO of the Inland Empire Economic Partnership. “Those are prices that are passed onto the consumer and so people buy less … If the tariffs cause a trade war and there’s a dip in exports from China or other places, that will affect the Inland Empire.”

The report offered some good news, though: its authors don’t expect a recession this year.

“There are currently no alarm bells from leading economic indicators,” wrote Manfred Keil, Robert Kleinhenz, and Kenneth P. Miller, researchers with Claremont McKenna College who authored the report.

“We need to say upfront that this year, more so than in most previous years, there is more uncertainty involved in our forecast. This is the result of President Trump announcing certain policies (tariffs on Mexico and Canada, for example), only to postpone them shortly afterwards.”

While tariffs can suppress economic growth, Trump’s on-again, off-again plans to impose them have been particularly confounding to anyone trying to manage inventory or hire workers.

“People don’t like uncertainty and certainly employers don’t like it,” Granillo said.

That instability could ripple through the warehouse and logistics industry, key industries in Riverside and San Bernardino counties. That’s where retail giants Amazon, Wal-Mart and Target disperse imported goods from the Ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach through to the rest of the country.

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Other Trump policies could also scramble the region’s economic outlook.

Mass immigrant deportations might reduce the construction workforce as Los Angeles tries to rebuild more than 16,000 structures that burned in the Palisades and Eaton Fires in January. And tariffs could constrict construction supplies from Canada, the report warned.

“Canadian lumber is a big part of the homebuilding industry; with tariffs and the current state of relations between the Trump administration and Canada, that’s problematic,” Granillo said. “And a lot of industries — healthcare, hospitality, construction — rely on immigrant labor. That’s going to be a cause of delays and rising costs of building.”

There’s another pernicious effect of tariffs on the Coachella Valley tourism sector, the report warned. The loss of goodwill is prompting some Canadian visitors to cancel U.S. travel.

“The Coachella Valley is the winter home of thousands of Canadians,” Granillo said. “And many of them are choosing not to come to the United States because of the tensions between the Trump administration and Canada.”

Granillo said he’s trying to get numbers on vacation cancellations, noting “it’s happening in real time right now.”

Palm Springs Mayor Ron deHarte said he’s received a couple letters from Canadian visitors saying they would not return to the desert because they were disappointed by tariffs against Canada. But he doesn’t know how widespread that is.

The Washington Post on Sunday published letters from some of those snowbirds who are choosing to feather their nests elsewhere this year. Most of the letters are characteristically polite, despite the boycott.

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The countywide jobless rate in January, based on preliminary EDD estimates, was 5.3%, compared to 5% in December.

According to figures, the January rate was two-tenths of a percentage point below the year-ago level, when countywide unemployment stood at 5.5%.

EDD posted the data outside of its usual schedule due to an annual statistical revision process done in concert with the U.S. Department of Labor known as “benchmarking,” which is intended to improve accuracy of results.

The process will wrap up toward the end of this month, at which point the February jobless numbers will be released.

The latest agency estimates indicated that Mecca had the highest unemployment rate within the county in January at 12.9%, followed by Cherry Valley at 9.6%, Coachella at 8.7%, Rancho Mirage at 7.6% and East Hemet at 7.4%

The combined unemployment rate for Riverside and San Bernardino counties — the Inland Empire — was also 5.3%, up from 4.9% in December, the EDD said.

Bi-county data indicated that payrolls shrank across the board, led by the trade, transportation and utilities sector, which shed an estimated 23,400 jobs, mainly in retail trade, as outlets and suppliers began cutting back following the Holiday Season shopping blitz.

Additional loses were recorded in the agricultural, construction, financial services, health services, hospitality, information technology, manufacturing and professional business services sectors, which lost an aggregate 16,000 positions, according to figures.

Miscellaneous unclassified industries also contracted by 1,000.

The mining and public sectors were unchanged.

The statewide non-seasonally-adjusted unemployment rate in January was 5.5%.

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