The rain will be nothing like the relatively modest storms that have brought largely beneficial rain to Southern California the last two weeks. Forecasters suggest avoiding travel if possible on Thursday.

“Thursday is just not a great day to be on the road,” said Ryan Kittell, a meteorologist with the National Weather Service in Oxnard. “If nothing else, [expect] lots of slick roads, lots of traffic accidents. There will be some roadway flooding. Not all areas … but certainly more than we’ve seen this winter so far.

“If you have the option of canceling, delaying [or] rescheduling any kind of events — on Thursday in particular — that would be a good idea,” Kittell said.

Those living in or around recently burned areas should plan to leave their homes before the storm or, if they choose to remain at home, hunker down and stay off the roads. The National Weather Service warned of “potentially life-threatening and damaging flooding and debris flows,” and said the next few days could end up being the wettest storm of the entire winter.

Even if significant debris flows don’t happen, roads could be mucked with mud, “and there will probably be a lot of road closures in and around those burn scars,” Kittell said. A debris flow is a type of landslide in which water rapidly flows downhill — moving as fast as 35 mph and picking up not only mud but also rocks, branches, and sometimes even massive boulders and cars.

There’s a chance light rain will arrive Wednesday, but the greatest risk of flooding and debris flows is on Thursday. Downtown Los Angeles could see 2.17 inches of rain Wednesday through Friday.

The last time there was more rain than that was about a year ago, when 8.51 inches pelted L.A. over a three-day period, triggering damaging mudflows in Beverly Glen, Studio City, Tarzana, Baldwin Hills and Hacienda Heights.

A flood watch or flash flood watch is expected to be in effect for much of Southern California and the Sierra foothills east of the San Joaquin Valley.

This storm is arriving through an atmospheric river. Atmospheric river storms are long plumes of water vapor that can pour over from the Pacific Ocean into California. They carry so much water that they’re said to be like a river in the sky. Just a few atmospheric river events can bring California from one-third to one-half of its annual precipitation.

Here’s what you need to know:

Timing

Showers could begin Wednesday — but they’ll be light, if they materialize at all.

Heavy rain is expected in Santa Barbara and San Luis Obispo counties on Thursday, and in Los Angeles and Ventura counties from Thursday afternoon through Friday morning.

Heavier rain could arrive in L.A. County around 2 or 3 p.m. Thursday, then build into the night, Kittell said.

“The morning could start out dry or damp, he said, “but certainly it’ll be ramping up through the afternoon hours.”

In the Inland Empire and San Diego and Orange counties, the heaviest rain is expected Thursday afternoon and evening. The storm isn’t expected to be as potent there, but it’s “still a significant event for this winter,” said Adam Roser, a meteorologist with the weather service’s San Diego office.

Thursday is also shaping up to be the strongest day of the storm in the San Francisco Bay Area and the Sierra Nevada.

Shallow landslides are likely, large river flooding and localized flash flooding are possible, and urban and small stream flooding is expected in the Bay Area, as well as Santa Cruz and Monterey counties, according to the weather service office in Monterey.

Rainfall amounts

Forecasters expect 1.5 to 3 inches of rain across much of Los Angeles, Ventura and Santa Barbara counties, with 3 to 6 inches expected in the mountains. San Luis Obispo County is expected to see more rain: 3 to 5 inches, with 5 to 10 inches in the mountains.

Lancaster could get 1.14 inches of rain; Redondo Beach, 2.04 inches; downtown Los Angeles and Long Beach, 2.17 inches; Thousand Oaks, 2.19 inches; Canoga Park, 2.32 inches; Santa Clarita, 2.38 inches; Covina, 3.07 inches; Santa Barbara, 3.25 inches; San Luis Obispo, 3.75 inches; and Cambria, 3.97 inches.

During the lighter round of rain expected Wednesday, Riverside could get up to three-tenths of an inch; Anaheim and Irvine, up to two-fifths of an inch; Ontario, Lake Elsinore and San Clemente, up to half an inch; and San Diego, Escondido and Oceanside, up to seven-tenths of an inch.

Getting about 2 inches of rain in a single storm is not particularly unusual for downtown L.A., but such a storm can cause problems including localized flooding.

“That is the way it tends to go in Southern California: We don’t have all that many storms with just light rain. We tend to have more of an ‘It rains, it pours,’ scenario here,” said Rose Schoenfeld, a weather service meteorologist.

For the heavier rain expected Thursday through Friday, San Diego and Escondido could get 1 to 1.5 inches of rain; Anaheim, Irvine, San Clemente, Riverside, Lake Elsinore and Oceanside, 1.5 to 2 inches; and San Bernardino, Ontario and Temecula, 2 to 2.5 inches.

Although it’s not routine for places such as Orange County to get 1.5 to 2 inches of rain in a single storm, Roser said, “it definitely happens in winter storms like these.”

Farther north, San José, Concord and Livermore could get 1.5 to 2 inches of rain; San Francisco, Napa, Monterey and Santa Rosa, 2 to 3 inches; and Big Sur, 4 to 6 inches.

Bakersfield could receive from 0.73 to 1.67 inches of rain; Fresno, 0.82 to 1.78 inches; and Merced, 0.6 to 1.36 inches. The Sacramento Valley has a 50% to 80% chance of receiving 1 inch or more of rain over a two-day period; the neighboring Sierra foothills and Shasta County have a 50% to 85% chance of 2 inches or more of rain.

Burn areas on alert

Southern California has endured one of its driest starts to the rainy season in recorded history, and one of the most destructive fire seasons ever. As a result, there are many burned areas now on high alert for potential landslides, given that vegetation has burned away and can no longer hold soil in place.

Experts say the risk of mud and debris sliding off burned hillsides rises once rain starts falling at a rate of half an inch per hour. That could happen this week, as rainfall rates are expected to peak between half an inch and 1 inch per hour in Los Angeles, Ventura, Santa Barbara and San Luis Obispo counties.

“We do expect quite a few enhanced cells” of precipitation, Kittell said, with “some of them maybe even organizing into some very narrow bands of fairly intense rainfall.”

These cells may end up behaving very much like a thunderstorm, Kittell said, “with brief, heavy downpours and possibly even strong, gusty winds.”

A flood watch will be in effect for recent burn scars, likely from midday Thursday through Friday morning.

Most concerning are the Eaton fire scar in the Altadena area, the Palisades and Franklin fire scars in Pacific Palisades and Malibu, and the Bridge fire scar in the San Gabriel Mountains west and southwest of Wrightwood.

Residents of burn areas who have returned to their homes may want to consider relocating temporarily, Kittell said.

“If you have an option to go somewhere else, that’s great,” the meteorologist said, “especially on Thursday.”

Otherwise, he advised, avoid leaving, and try not to drive in recently burned areas through Thursday.

In San Diego and Orange counties and the Inland Empire, rain may fall at rates of more than half an inch per hour on Thursday in higher-elevation areas.

Flood risk

Expect roadway flooding, including on freeways, as well as at onramps and offramps. A few roads could be closed due to floods, and creeks and rivers will swell and strengthen. Swift-water rescues could be necessary if people become trapped by rising water in rivers and other waterways.

There’s a moderate risk for small-stream flooding in Santa Barbara and San Luis Obispo counties. The highest risk in San Luis Obispo County is near Cambria and other communities downslope of the Santa Lucia Range, the mountains that tower over the coast.

Strong winds

The storm is also expected to bring the strongest winds from a rainstorm this winter, with peak gusts of 40 to 60 mph in the mountains, deserts and Central Coast and 20 to 40 mph elsewhere.

Downtown L.A. and Santa Barbara could see peak gusts of 23 mph; Long Beach, 26 mph; Redondo Beach, 30 mph; Santa Clarita and Canoga Park, 32 mph; Thousand Oaks, 35 mph; Pyramid Lake, 37 mph; San Luis Obispo, 44 mph; and Lancaster, 52 mph.

Strong winds could down trees and power lines, causing electrical outages.

Winds are expected out of the east at Los Angeles International Airport, which could alter flight patterns and cause delays.

There is also a very low risk of water spouts and tornadoes, Kittell said. “I wouldn’t be surprised if we get a report or two of a funnel cloud or even a waterspout,” he said.

After the storm leaves

The storm will likely move out of the region sometime Friday — kicking off what could be a bit of a dry spell. Through most of next week, no strong storms are expected in Southern California.

“Certainly, by Saturday, we’ll by dry,” Kittell said. And temperatures are expected to rise next week.

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The Republican nominee for president in the upcoming November election took the podium at about 10 a.m. at Trump National Golf Course, which is a course he’s owned for more than 20 years.

Trump talked about the ongoing crisis in Rancho Palos Verdes during the news conference Friday. Many residents have been displaced from their homes, and thousands of others have had electricity shut off as landslides have affected crucial elements of the community’s infrastructure.

“I want to express my support for all of the families affected by the landslides in Rancho Palos Verdes,” Trump said. “Landslides are something to be taken care of … The mountain is moving and it can be stopped, but they need some help from the government.”

Trump’s criticism of the government’s response comes more than a week after California Gov. Gavin Newsom proclaimed a state of emergency in the community, giving the city state funding and support from the Office of Emergency Services.

Still, many residents congregated outside the golf course on Friday, hoping to have the chance to show the former president the impact that the landslides is having on their lives.

One resident, identified as Jerry, told KTLA’s Omar Lewis that his daughter was about to move into his new home in the city when Southern California Edison abruptly turned his power off on Labor Day weekend.

“We’re hoping for FEMA money to come in,” he said. “It’s a working class neighborhood. I think the perception is these people have an endless amount of money … You have a lot of older people that have nowhere to turn.”

Jerry said he was not present at the event in support of former President Trump, but rather to get his attention on the issue.

“We’re not going to go out without a fight,” he said. “We’re here to stay.”

While lots of residents were there to advocate for the residents affected by the natural disaster, most in attendance were there in support of Trump, who rarely makes campaign stops in California due to the political demographics of the state.

Dozens, if not hundreds, of Trump supporters were seen outside. One large banner read “Kamala Harris is an idiot,” alongside an American flag.

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LOS ANGELES (AP) — Sinkholes swallowed cars and floodwaters swamped towns and swept away a small boy as California was wracked by more wild winter while the next system in a powerful string of storms loomed on the horizon Tuesday.

Millions of people were still under flood warnings, and more than 200,000 homes and businesses were without power because of heavy rains, hail and landslides. Thousands have been ordered to evacuate their homes.

At least 17 people have died from storms that began late last month, said Wade Crowfoot, the California natural resources secretary. The deaths included a pickup truck driver and motorcyclist killed Tuesday morning when a eucalyptus tree fell on them on Highway 99 in the San Joaquin Valley near Visalia, the California Highway Patrol said.

The storm that began Monday dumped more than a foot of rain at higher elevations in central and Southern California and buried Sierra Nevada ski resorts in more than 5 feet (1.5 meters) of snow.

Rockfalls and mudslides shut down roads, and gushing runoff turned sections of freeways into waterways. Swollen rivers swamped homes and triggered evacuation orders.

Residents of the small agricultural community of Planada, which is along a main highway leading to Yosemite National Park, were ordered Tuesday to pack up and leave after Bear Creek overflowed and flooded some homes.

A break in the weather Tuesday on the central coast allowed searchers near San Miguel to look for Kyle Doan, the child who vanished after he and his mother were stranded in a truck in rising waters. His mother was rescued, but Kyle was swept away, and a seven-hour search Monday turned up only one of his Nike shoes.

“It’s still very dangerous out there,” said San Luis Obispo County sheriff’s spokesperson Tony Cipolla. “The creeks are very fast flowing.”

The wet and blustery weather left California’s large homeless population in a precarious situation. At least one homeless person has died, and more than a dozen people were rescued from a homeless encampment on the Ventura River.

Theo Harris, who has been living on the streets of San Francisco since getting out of jail in 2016, fortified his shelter with tarps and zip ties and took in his girlfriend after her tent flooded.

“The wind has been treacherous, but you just got to bundle up and make sure you stay dry,” Harris said. “Rain is part of life. It’s going to be sunny. It’s going to rain. I just got to strap my boots up and not give up.”

While the storms have provided much-needed moisture to offset a withering drought, their fury and frequency have created trouble that is expected to last into next week.

The latest atmospheric river — a long plume of moisture stretching out into the Pacific that can drop staggering amounts of rain and snow — began easing in some areas. But flooding and mudslides could follow, even during a brief respite, because the ground remains saturated.

More rain was forecast to arrive Wednesday in Northern California, and then a longer storm system was predicted to last from Friday until Tuesday, Jan. 17.

The weather service issued a flood watch through Tuesday for the entire San Francisco Bay Area, along with the Sacramento Valley and Monterey Bay. Areas hit by wildfires in recent years faced the possibility of mud and debris sliding down bare hillsides.

Forecasters warned that southwestern California could see 60 mph (97 kph) wind gusts at the peak of the storm, and some areas could receive up to half an inch (1.27 centimeters) of rain per hour. Tornadoes that had been forecast never materialized.

In South San Francisco, high winds ripped part of the roof off a large apartment building.

The squalls and flooding have forced school cancellations in some communities and intermittently shut down sections of major roadways that have flooded or been blocked by trees, rocks and landslides.

Sinkholes swallowed up two cars on a Los Angeles street, trapping two motorists who were rescued, and damaged 15 homes in the rural Santa Barbara County community of Orcutt.

In the wealthy seaside community of Montecito, 80 miles (128 kilometers) northwest of Los Angeles, evacuation orders were lifted Tuesday for about 10,000 people, including Prince Harry, Oprah Winfrey and other celebrities. The community had been told to evacuate on the fifth anniversary of a mudslide that killed 23 people and destroyed more than 100 homes.

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Associated Press journalists John Antczak and Stefanie Dazio in Los Angeles and Janie Har and Olga R. Rodriguez in San Francisco contributed to this report.

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