We can get the national analysis out of the way: There was a higher than expected increase in the employment numbers (275,000) while the even higher initially released January numbers were revised downwards to more reasonable levels (229,000). Yes, the unemployment rate did increase from 3.7% to 3.9%, but that was due to healthy employment growth being outpaced by an even larger increase in the labor force.

Since then, the inflation numbers have also been published, and while they did not improve further and by the magnitude we’d hoped for, the U.S. economy continues to be on a path for a soft landing (reducing inflation rates to 2% without creating a recession).

This is important, because the Federal Reserve would be less likely to lower interest rates during summer if the job market was as hot as initially estimated and inflation remains sticky above the 2% target. The central bank left interest rates unchanged after its meeting last week, but indicated it is close to start lowering the interest rates as policy makers become confident that “it will be appropriate to dial back.” Chairman Jerome Powell said they were “not far from it.” As the UCLA Anderson Forecast put it in its most recent report, we are on a path to normalcy.

Now let us focus on our state and region. For the Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario Metropolitan Statistical Area, some of the annual revisions were substantial. In the Inland Empire, the Logistics industry lost significantly more jobs (some 5,000 depending on which month you focus on) since last summer than originally assumed and shows a steeper downward trend. On the other hand, Education and Health Services has gained more jobs than previously thought, roughly 10,000 more and the numbers are trending upward, confirming it as the sector with the largest share of labor in the Inland Empire.

The headline news for the Inland Empire is that the unemployment rate jumped up by half percentage points, increasing significantly from 5.0% to 5.5%. Since the Inland Empire’s economy is often described as “first in, last out,” shall we take this as the first sign of the national economy tanking after all, resulting in a “hard landing” (decrease in inflation coinciding with a recession)?

The initially bleak picture is simply an artifact of the data, generated by regularly occurring seasonal patterns. Without getting too technical, we will try to convince you that you should look at seasonally adjusted data rather than the raw data from the EDD. While for some months the difference is negligible, in January it is particularly high, since there are layoffs every year due to the post-holiday season. It is not surprising that the largest raw data (non-seasonally adjusted) employment losses for the Inland Empire came in Retail Trade, Logistics, and Leisure and Hospitality. Filtering out these effects is important since they give a misleading picture of the underlying economy. Total employment reported did not go down 32,300 (which would represent an alarming 2%); instead, it went up by 4,850.

The increase in employment reported by households (+9,100) aligned with the increase in establishment employment (+4,850). Residency measured employment increased by more than what establishments reported. This is probably due to commuters, most of whom work in the coastal areas. The employment status of these commuters is reported by households in the region, not by establishments. This means that significant job growth among commuters could explain the difference for January.

Let us get more specific. Compared to the bleak picture painted by the raw establishment data (decreases of -8,200 in Retail Trade, -7,400 in Logistics, -6,500 in Professional and Business Services, and -3,700 in Leisure and Hospitality), the numbers we get after accounting for seasonal patterns are more positive. The biggest decrease was seen in Professional and Business Services (almost -1,200), at only roughly a fifth of what non-seasonally adjusted data indicated. For Retail Trade (-500), Logistics (+250), and Leisure and Hospitality (-700) numbers also look less worrisome. Bottom line: Do not make major decisions based on non-seasonally adjusted data.

Applying standard statistical techniques to remove seasonal regularities results in the (seasonally adjusted) unemployment rate actually falling by 0.1 percentage points from 5.7% to 5.6% in the Inland Empire.

The change came in the healthiest way possible: through a simultaneous increase in employment and labor force, the former outpacing the latter (+9,100 and +6,200, respectively). After six consecutive months of increases in the civilian unemployment rate, this is encouraging. The result holds despite the fact we only observed significant employment increases during three months in 2023.

The Inland Empire will need more time to recover from the very concerning decreases of 12,800 for the labor force and 13,600 for employment observed between November and December. Despite this, the Inland Empire continues to be the poster child of the economic recovery from the COVID-19 recession,. While we will continue to see some structural adjustment between the industries of the region, we are on a positive path as far as the economy is concerned.

The post Where is employment heading in the Inland Empire? appeared first on The Hemet & San Jacinto Chronicle.

Tomorrow, Saturday, January 18 the Democrats of Hemet and San Jacinto will be holding a march to celebrate 100 years of women having the right to vote. The Democrats of Hemet-San Jacinto urge all women to join ranks with the women who marched last year, and to add their voice to the celebration. They are hoping to make it even larger and striking than last year. “We want to make this event even more of a success than last year as we are celebrating the centennial of the women’s suffragette movement to win for women the right to vote,” said one organizer, adding, “It is the single most pivotal point for women’s rights and equality in American History.”

The “Women’s March” will be held at Gibbel Park, 2500 W. Florida Avenue, Hemet at 10am. This years march, as was last year’s, will be held in solidarity with similar marches around the country celebrating women’s rights in general and a woman’s right to vote in particular.  This will be an important year for the march as they will face stiff competition from pro-Trump women’s groups throughout the country.

The first President to be elected with the help of the women’s vote was Woodrow Wilson, and through that vote, history shows us just how important is the impact of the female vote in our country.

To quote the women’s march website: “2020 is set to be a landmark year for the Women’s March. We are writing our fourth year into existence and you play the biggest role. In 2020 we are engaging in targeted direct action aimed at those who have attempted to impede on our rights and we are building with those who have always stood by our side. Women have seen serious attacks under our current administration but we have also seen just what we are capable of when we fight together. In 2020 we need you to rise with us. In 2020 we need you to march with us.” Just what those attacks are, the site doesn’t say, but women are encouraged to find out by attending the rally. Causes and grievances are sure to be aired.

For those interested in attending, donating or gathering more information, you may do so by contacting Monica Cary 951-956-8684, or the women’s march at https://womensmarch.com/2020-march or by contacting the Democrats of Hemet- and San Jacinto at https://m.facebook.com/Hemet.Democratic.Headquarters/ or by calling 951 402-3194

All women are urged to dress in white to honor those women who fought for the right to woman to vote.

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