LOS ANGELES (AP) — An ominous four-word message issued by California Gov. Gavin Newsom’s campaign on the morning of Aug. 5 served as the shock Democrats needed to take seriously a recall election that could remove him from office: “This recall is close.”

Newsom’s warning in a fundraising email came just days after a poll indicated the once-popular Democratic governor who was elected in a 2018 landslide was facing the unthinkable prospect of losing his job in a state that hadn’t elected a Republican in a statewide race in 15 years.

The race is “close enough to start thinking about what it’d be like if we had a Republican governor in California. Sorry to put the thought in your head, but it’s true,” Newsom’s campaign wrote.

The alarmist message was quickly incorporated into Newsom’s remarks on the campaign trail – he was in serious trouble, he warned. The sequence of events combined to create a turning point in the race and helped energize California’s dominant Democratic voters, who until then appeared to be greeting the contest with a collective shrug.

Newsom on Tuesday easily turned back the attempt to retire him less than three years into his first term. Incomplete returns showed him headed toward a landslide win with about 65% of the vote.

A major lesson of Newsom’s decisive win is “you can wake up the base,” Newsom strategist Sean Clegg said this week. “The base may start out asleep … but you can wake up the base.”

Newsom’s victory also provides him with a dramatic comeback story that he is likely to employ as he seeks to broaden his popularity in advance of a 2022 reelection race, while seeking to return his name into discussion about future presidential candidates.

Concentrating the narrative on the threat of a Republican upset in the nation’s most populous state “became a self-fulfilling prophesy, where the more you talk about it being close, the more (Democrats) pay attention,” said Los Angeles-based Democratic consultant Michael Trujillo, who was not involved in the campaign.

For Democrats, the fear of losing the California governor’s seat also opened up national fundraising pipelines that gave Newsom a vast cash advantage over his rivals. That concern also provided a connection point with minority communities about how their lives could change with a conservative Republican governor in Sacramento.

Newsom also benefited at other critical junctures of the campaign with strategy decisions by his campaign and other factors involving happenstance or even luck.

The state collected an astounding windfall of tax dollars that resulted in a record surplus, allowing Newsom to dispense billions in funding for an array of programs, from cleaning up trash to early education and homelessness.

In what Democrats said was a fortunate turn for Newsom, the election was reshuffled when conservative talk show host Larry Elder entered the race in July. The lawyer and author who could have become the state’s first Black governor quickly emerged as Newsom’s chief foil, and the race came into sharper focus for voters as a one-on-one matchup.

Elder came to the race with conservative-libertarian principles that were out of step with many of the state’s left-leaning voters.

He is a supporter of former President Donald Trump, who is a reviled figure in California outside of his conservative base. Elder is critical of the landmark Roe v. Wade decision on abortion rights, has spoken in opposition to the minimum wage and promised to erase state vaccine and mask mandates that Newsom has insisted save lives.

With Elder in the race, Newsom seized the opportunity to frame the election as a competition between two radically different visions for California’s future. He warned repeatedly that progressive values on the environment, health care and women’s rights were on the ballot, while Elder would herald the return of an era of “Trumpism.”

Elder galvanized the conservative base, but gave Democrats a clear enemy.

“Larry Elder handed them so many gifts on a platter. He is literally the antithesis of most California voters,” said Dana Williamson, who was a top adviser to former Democratic California Gov. Jerry Brown, who preceded Newsom.

Ron Nehring, former chairman of the California Republican Party and a supporter of GOP candidate Kevin Faulconer, said Elder “served as a life preserver for Gavin Newsom” because he gave the governor a target and shifted attention from his own record.

Newsom came to the recall with advantages not shared by governors in other states.

Democrats hold a vast numerical edge over Republicans in California –- a nearly 2-to-1 margin, or about 5 million voters. As the target of the recall, the political committee backing Newsom was allowed to raise unlimited funds, which gave him the cash to flood TV screens with advertising.

That main committee backing Newsom raised nearly $70 million through the end of August. By comparison, two committees supporting Elder’s campaign raised about $15 million.

Newsom also was supported by the nation’s largest state Democratic Party and politically powerful public worker unions – his campaign said 25,000 volunteers hit the streets the weekend before the election.

Meanwhile, infighting broke out among Republican candidates. The GOP never seemed to settle on a unified strategy –- the party considered endorsing a candidate, then dropped it. National Republicans largely stayed on the sidelines after the Republican National Committee gave $250,000, most of it to the state party.

Another key advantage for Newsom came when his campaign succeeded in keeping the replacement ballot free of any established Democrats. Newsom’s strategists were wary of the historical context: Voters in a 2003 recall election ousted Democrat Gray Davis, who faced an intraparty challenge from Lt. Gov. Cruz Bustamante.

Bustamante’s appearance on the ballot gave Democrats a viable option to the unpopular Davis and Republican Arnold Schwarzenegger ended up cruising to victory.

Newsom’s campaign team also pinpointed the emergence of the highly contagious delta variant as a factor that reordered the race, especially with Elder emerging as the dominant GOP rival.

“We saw the delta surge as a real inflection moment in this campaign. I think it was a turning point for us,” said Clegg. “What delta brought into clear, clear focus was what the stakes are in this election, when one party has basically become an anti-science, anti-vaccine, anti-public health party.”

Referring to Elder, he said the race could be distilled into a single sentence: “This recall is a vote for a pro-Trump, anti-vax Republican governor who’s going to reverse vaccine mandates on day one.”

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LOS ANGELES (AP) — The California recall election that could remove first-term Democratic Gov. Gavin Newsom from office wraps up Tuesday. Nearly 8 million mail-in ballots — the form of voting most Californians use — already have been returned out of 22 million sent to registered voters.

The contest unfolded this summer as the nation’s most populous state saw a surge in coronavirus infections from the highly contagious delta variant and the return of masks and other restrictions in many places. There have been raging wildfires, crime rates have risen and a homeless crisis persists unabated.

Republicans are hoping for an upset in a heavily Democratic state, where the GOP hasn’t won a statewide election since 2006. Newsom has been defending his record on the virus and warning that Republican front-runner Larry Elder, a conservative talk radio host, would undermine California’s progressive values.

The election is being watched nationally and the outcome could influence the 2022 elections, when a closely divided Congress will be in play.

How did California arrive at this point? Here are some answers:

WHAT IS A RECALL ELECTION?

California is one of 20 states that have provisions to recall a sitting governor, 19 through elections. The state law establishing the rules goes back to 1911 and was intended to give more power to voters by allowing them to remove elected officials and repeal or pass laws by placing them on the ballot.

Recall attempts are common in the state, but they rarely get on the ballot and even fewer succeed. The only time a governor was recalled was 2003, when Democrat Gray Davis was removed and voters replaced him with Republican Arnold Schwarzenegger.

A federal judge in late August rejected a lawsuit that sought to block the recall on grounds it violated the Constitution by creating a situation where a sitting governor could lose the recall but still get more votes to stay in office than the winning replacement candidate receives.

WHY IS THERE A RECALL DRIVE AGAINST NEWSOM?

The answer is simple and complicated.

The simple part: Californians grew angry during the pandemic. Whipsaw stay-at-home orders by Newsom, crushing job losses from business closures, shuttered schools and the disruption of daily life soured just about everybody. Many of life’s routines were cut off at some point if not altogether, whether it was trips to the beach or lunches at a favorite taco joint.

The complicated part: In a state with nearly 40 million people, there are many grievances, including California’s wallet-sapping taxes, rising food and gas prices, the threat of water rationing to contend with a long-running drought, a homeless crisis and the continuing menace of wildfires. As governor, Newsom is a ready target for that resentment.

He also is being hit by fallout from a multibillion-dollar fraud scandal at the state unemployment agency while weathering public shaming for dining out maskless with friends and lobbyists at an exclusive restaurant last fall as he toldresidents to stay home.

HOW DOES THE ELECTION WORK?

There are two questions: Voters are being asked if Newsom should be removed, yes or no, and then who should replace him. They will choose from 46 replacement candidates.

If a majority of voters approve Newsom’s removal, the candidate who gets the most votes on the second question becomes governor. With dozens of candidates dividing those ballots, it’s possible a winner could get 25% or less of the vote.

Statistics compiled by Political Data Inc., a firm that gathers voting information for Democrats, independents and academics, found that nearly 8 million voters have returned mail-in ballots, which would equal about a 35% turnout rate with voting continuing through Tuesday.

Senior citizens are voting in their usual high numbers, while younger voters have been less enthusiastic so far.

WHO ARE THE REPLACEMENT CANDIDATES?

There are 46 names on the ballot, but former Congressman Doug Ose withdrew because of health reasons after it had been printed. The 24 Republican candidates include Elder; former San Diego Mayor Kevin Faulconer; businessman John Cox, who was defeated by Newsom in 2018; reality TV personality and former Olympian Caitlyn Jenner; and Assemblyman Kevin Kiley.

There are nine Democrats, 10 independents, two Green Party members and one Libertarian. No Democrat with political stature ran — the best-known is real estate agent and YouTube personality Kevin Paffrath. Most of the candidates are largely unknown and have not mounted credible campaigns.

WHAT ARE THE CANDIDATES PROMISING?

Elder, whom polls have leading the field, has promised to bring a fresh eye and common sense to the Democratic-dominated state and has said he would swiftly lift state mask and vaccine mandates.

Kiley has said he would immediately end the pandemic state of emergency, which would automatically wipe out all state and local orders issued under it.

Faulconer has proposed ending the state income tax for individuals making up to $50,000 and households up to $100,000 as part of a plan to make the state more affordable for the middle class.

Cox sought attention by campaigning with a 1,000-pound (450-kilogram) Kodiak bear, which he said represented the need for “beastly” changes in the state, and is calling for a historic tax cut.

Jenner received significant attention when she entered the race but has run a very low-key campaign and is barely registering in polls.

WHAT IS NEWSOM SAYING ABOUT THE RECALL?

He steered around questions of a possible recall for months, saying he wanted to focus on the coronavirus, vaccinations and reopening schools. In March, he launched an aggressive campaign and began running ads attacking the recall and doing national TV and cable interviews.

The main committee opposing the recall had raised nearly $70 million through the end of August.

Newsom, who was elected in a 2018 landslide, has acknowledged that people were anxious and weary after a difficult year of restrictions. Recently, he has defended his record during the pandemic — arguing his decisions saved thousands of lives — while warning that a Republican victory would undermine the state’s progressive values and possibly have a ripple effect nationwide.

Democrats say the effort to remove him is being driven by far-right extremists and supporters of former President Donald Trump. The recall is backed by state and national Republicans, but organizers argue they have a broad-based coalition, including many independents and Democrats.

Lately, Newsom has focused his attacks on Elder, calling him more extreme in many ways than Trump. Elder dismisses such criticism as a political ploy to divert attention from Newsom’s record on crime, homelessness and the pandemic.

The governor spent much of 2020 on the defensive. But he has benefitted from a record budget surplus that allowed him to tour the state to announce vast new spending programs, including $12 billion to fight homelessness; checks of up to $1,100 each for millions of low and middle-income earners who struggled during lockdowns; and $2.7 billion for free kindergarten for all of the state’s 4-year-olds.

HOW PRECARIOUS IS NEWSOM’S HOLD ON HIS JOB?

In the depths of the pandemic, Newsom’s popularity was tumbling and he appeared imperiled, with widespread unrest over long-running school and business closures. Many business owners were infuriated by what they saw as Newsom’s heavy-handed restrictions that had some open and close several times. Others rebelled against mask mandates.

Earlier this year, a reopened economy and the astounding windfall of tax dollars helped Newsom recover. However, when Newsom fully reopened the state on June 15, virus cases were near record lows. Since then, cases have been climbing, particularly among the unvaccinated.

Los Angeles County, which accounts for a quarter of the state’s population, reimposed an indoor mask mandate in public places, even if people are vaccinated. California also is requiring K-12 students to wear masks when they go back to classrooms. Such an order could hurt Newsom, especially among those who felt he didn’t do enough to reopen schools last year.

However, recent polling indicates Newsom is in a strong position to hold his job. He has advantages over his GOP rivals: Democratic voters outnumber Republicans nearly 2-to-1, and the party controls every statewide office and dominates the Legislature and congressional delegation. President Joe Biden, Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Barack Obama have called on voters to reject the recall.

Republicans last won a statewide election in 2006, when Schwarzenegger was reelected.

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During a “Recall Gavin Newsom” rally in San Rafael, CA, a knife-wielding Newsom supporter and liberal extremist stabbed a recall supporter, knocking him to the ground and fracturing his skull.

59-year old Chris Carpinello was the victim of the attack and was rushed to Marin County General Hospital, suffering a slash injury and a concussion after he was slammed to the ground. It was later revealed that Carpinello fractured his skull and broke his jaw.

Liberal extremists are hunting down conservatives and the media is nowhere to be seen.

“This attack on our free speech rights by Newsom supporters is typical of the way Democrats in California operate. But physical attacks on us won’t stop us from Recalling Gavin Newsom. He needs to go now”, said local organizer Tief Gibbs.

“We are praying for our friends who were senselessly attacked in broad daylight. We won’t back down,” Gibbs continued.

Gibbs says after the man started destroying the signs, one of the demonstrators confronted him trying to get him to stop.

“The assailant came towards him and pushed him back and started punching him,” she said.

Following the attack, the knife-wielding man fled on foot — leaving his victim to be transported to the hospital, where another group member says he was diagnosed with a fractured skull and broken jaw.

While the incident has angered the rally goers, Gibbs says the attack is nothing new.

“We’re in a situation here where freedom of speech is in danger,” Gibbs said.

Many here say it’s just another example of the kind of anger that’s been directed at pro-recall demonstrators, and point to a separate incident last week where a woman threw an egg at leading GOP contender Larry Elder.

“We don’t do that kind of stuff. We don’t attack people who we disagree with. That side attacks the people they disagree with. We don’t do that. We allow for free speech. We actually, we want free speech,” said Gibbs.

As for the suspect, San Rafael police say he potentially faces charges of assault with a deadly weapon. However, he has not yet been caught.

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