NEW YORK (AP) — Stocks sank Tuesday after the head of the Federal Reserve warned it could turn the dial back up on its hikes to interest rates if pressure stays high on inflation. The warning shook markets and raised worries about a possible recession down the line.

The S&P 500 dropped 1.5% for one of its worst days of the year so far. The Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 574 points, or 1.7%, while the Nasdaq composite fell 1.2%.

Inflation and what the Fed is doing about it have been at the center of Wall Street’s sharp swings this year. After seeming to be on a steady decline since last summer, reports on inflation last month came in surprisingly hot. So did a suite of other data on the economy.

That raised fears that inflation is staying stickier than feared and that the Fed will have to raise rates higher than earlier thought. Higher rates can drag down inflation because they slow the economy, but they hurt prices for stocks and other investments. They also raise the risk of a recession later on.

The Fed’s chair, Jerome Powell, on Tuesday confirmed some of those fears and said the recent data mean “the ultimate level of interest rates is likely to be higher than previously anticipated.” He also said in his testimony to a Senate committee that the Fed is ready to increase the pace of its hikes again if needed.

That would be a sharp turnaround after it had just slowed its pace of increases to 0.25 percentage points last month from earlier hikes of 0.50 and 0.75 points.

“If the totality of the data were to indicate that faster tightening is warranted, we would be prepared to increase the pace of rate hikes,” Powell said. “Restoring price stability will likely require that we maintain a restrictive stance of monetary policy for some time.”

After sitting at virtually unchanged levels just before Powell’s testimony, stocks fell immediately afterward.

“This is the market coming back to realistic expectations,” said Megan Horneman, chief investment officer at Verdence Capital Advisors. ”I think it’s going to continue to wash out some of the excesses in the market.”

Wall Street had already begun convincing itself that higher rates than earlier thought were on the way and that the Fed may even possibly go back to larger rate increases following last month’s data reports.

Since getting last month’s blowout jobs report and other surprisingly strong data, Wall Street largely abandoned hopes that percolated early this year for a possible cut to interest rates later in 2023. It also upped its forecast for how high the Fed will ultimately take rates before pausing.

That’s been most clear in the bond market, where the yield on the 10-year Treasury topped 4% last week and hit its highest level since November. It helps set rates for mortgages and other important loans.

On Tuesday, it again approached 4% after Powell’s comments before falling back to 3.97% from 3.96% late Monday.

The two-year Treasury yield, which moves more on expectations for the Fed, shot up to 5.01% from 4.87% and is at its highest level since 2007.

Traders now see a better than two-in-three chance the Fed will accelerate its rate hikes and raise by 0.50 percentage points on March 22. That’s a flip-flop from a day earlier, when the widespread bet was for the Fed to stick with a smaller increase of 0.25 points, according to data from CME Group.

“If they were to go 75 after pulling back to 25, that would spook the markets,” Horneman said. “I still think that they’re going to go 25, but if they go 50, I think it” would be seen as the Fed’s “being very flexible and can act quickly if needed if economic data tells them that.”

“If they articulate that, I think markets can accept that.”

More fireworks may arrive later this week and into next as the Fed gets more data points that will help shape its decision making ahead of its next meeting on interest rates.

On Friday will come the U.S. government’s monthly jobs report. Within that, most of the attention will be on how high wages are going for workers. The fear at the Fed is that too-strong gains could lead to more upward pressure on inflation.

Then two reports next week will give updates on how high inflation remains at both the consumer and at the wholesale levels.

The challenge for the market has been that the economy has actually been too strong, despite all the rate increases the Fed has thrown at it. While that resilience calms worries a recession may hit imminently, it likely means rates will need to stay higher for longer. That in turn raises the risk of a deeper recession down the line.

The big shifts among investors about where inflation and the Fed are heading have led to sharp movements for markets. In January, stocks rallied and bond yields eased as hope blossomed that inflation would cool and get the Fed to take it easier on interest rates. Then, last month’s torrent of strong data dashed those expectations and sent stocks falling and bond yields jumping.

All told, the S&P 500 fell 62.05 points Tuesday to 3,986.37. The Dow lost 574.98 to 32,856.46, and the Nasdaq sank 145.40 to 11,530.33.

One outlier was WW International, which better known as WeightWatchers. It soared 79.1% after saying it’s getting into the prescription weight loss business with the purchase of telehealth platform Sequence.

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Stocks on Wall Street shook off an afternoon slide and finished modestly higher Wednesday, clawing back some of their losses a day after the market’s worst skid in two years.

The wobbly trading came as investors weighed another snapshot of inflation. Markets have been on edge about the possibility of a recession after a string of interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve this year as the central bank fights inflation.

The S&P 500 rose 0.3% after wavering between small gains and losses much of the afternoon. The benchmark index was coming off its biggest drop since June 2020, which ended a four-day winning streak.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 0.1% higher, while the Nasdaq composite rose 0.7%. Smaller company stocks also rose, pushing the Russell 2000 to a 0.4% gain.

Bond yields remained relatively stable after leaping higher on Tuesday. The yield on the two-year Treasury rose to 3.79% from 3.75% late Tuesday, when it soared on expectations for more aggressive interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve.

The yield on the 10-year Treasury, which helps dictate where mortgages and rates for other loans are heading, held steady at 3.41%.

A report on inflation at the wholesale level showed prices are still rising rapidly, with pressures building underneath the surface, even if overall inflation slowed. It echoed a report on inflation at the consumer level Tuesday, which raised expectations for interest-rate hikes and triggered a rout for markets.

Still, the overall decline in inflation at the wholesale level helped assuage fears in the market that inflation at all levels is intensifying, said Quincy Krosby, chief equity strategist for LPL Financial.

“The market would have probably had another round of selling had the headline number been higher,” Krosby said. “The fact that it dipped a bit was helpful for today’s market.”

Traders now see a one-in-four chance the Fed may hike its benchmark rate by a full percentage point next week, quadruple the usual move, according to CME Group. A day earlier, it was closer to a one-in-three chance. The site puts the probability of a three-quarter percentage point increase now at 76%, up from 69% on Tuesday.

The central bank has already raised its benchmark interest rate four times this year, with the last two increases by three-quarters of a percentage point.

The Fed is taking the aggressive action on interest rates to try and cool the hottest inflation in four decades. Tuesday’s report on high prices jolted the market with signs that inflation is entering a more stubborn phase that could require an already resolute Fed to become more aggressive.

Wall Street is especially worried that the rate hikes could go too far in slowing the economy and send it into a recession. The Fed is trying to avoid that outcome, but the latest inflation reports reveal that is becoming a more difficult task.

All told, the S&P 500 rose 13.32 points to 3,946.01, while the Dow added 30.12 points to 31,135.09. The Nasdaq gained 86.10 points to 11,719.68, and the Russell 2000 picked up 6.89 points to close at 1,838.46.

Energy stocks had some of the biggest gains as U.S. crude oil prices rose 1.3%. Exxon Mobil rose 2.5%.

“Today you have some investors coming off the sidelines, coming back into the market because there’s this feeling that the sell-off was a big one, there was a recalibration there, there was a little bit of panic selling there,” said Sylvia Jablonski, chief investment officer at Defiance ETFs.

The broader U.S. economy has been slowing, but consumers have remained resilient and the job market remains strong. Wall Street will get another update on inflation’s latest impact on spending when the government releases its retail sales report for August on Thursday.

The market is also monitoring U.S.-China tensions and war in Ukraine, while business and government officials are bracing for the possibility of a nationwide rail strike at the end of this week that could paralyze an already discombobulated supply chain.

The railroads have already started to curtail shipments of hazardous materials and have announced plans to stop hauling refrigerated products ahead of Friday’s strike deadline. Businesses that rely on Norfolk Southern, Union Pacific, BNSF, CSX, Kansas City Southern and other railroads to deliver their raw materials and finished products are planning for the worst.

Union Pacific fell 3.7% and Norfolk Southern fell 2.2%.

Biden administration officials are scrambling to develop a plan to keep goods moving if the railroads shut down. The White House is also pressuring the two sides to settle their differences, and a growing number of business groups are lobbying Congress to be prepared to intervene and block a strike if they can’t reach an agreement.

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Stock indexes on Wall Street ended with meager gains Tuesday, as a late-afternoon rally led by technology companies stemmed the market’s losses after an early slump.

The S&P eked out a gain of 0.2% after having been down 2.2% earlier in the day. The Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 0.4%, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq composite closed 1.7% higher.

The weak opening, which followed a long weekend for the Independence Day holiday, came about as the price of U.S. crude oil fell sharply, eventually settling below $100 a barrel for the first time since early May. Bond yields also fell, a sign traders were seeking less risky assets.

Energy, industrial, health care and most of the 11 sectors in the S&P 500 ended in the red, despite the late-day rally in technology stocks, communication firms and retailers and other companies that rely on direct consumer spending.

The volatility reflects growing worries among investors that the economy is slowing under the weight of surging inflation and sharply higher interest rates, pressures that could tip the economy into a recession.

“The market is really taking the growth slowdown as the primary driver today,” said Paul Kim, CEO of Simplified Asset Management. “So you’re seeing a modest sell-off in risk assets, but a significant sell-off in oil, energy, commodities tied to growth, as well as a a modest drop in yields.”

The S&P 500 rose 6.06 points to 3,831.39. The Nasdaq rose 194.39 points to 3,831.39. The Dow Jones Industrial Average remained in the red, losing 129.44 points to 30,967.82.

Small-company stocks also bounced back after a downbeat start. The Russell 2000 rose 13.57 points, or 0.8%, to 1,741.33.

European markets fell broadly.

Stocks remain in a slump that pulled the S&P 500 into a bear market last month, meaning an extended decline of 20% or more from a recent peak. The market’s performance in the first half of 2022 was the worst since the first six months of 1970.

Inflation has been squeezing businesses and consumers throughout the year, but tightened its grip after Russia invaded Ukraine in February. The invasion sent oil prices higher globally and sent gasoline prices in the U.S. to record highs. That prompted a pullback in spending from consumers struggling with higher prices on everything from food to clothing.

Lockdowns in China from rising COVID-19 cases have also made supply chain problems worse.

Central banks have been raising interest rates in an attempt to temper inflation. The Federal Reserve has been aggressive in its shift from historically low interest rates at the height of the pandemic to unusually big rate increases. But, that has raised concerns that the central bank could go too far in raising rates and hitting the brakes too hard on economic growth, which could bring on a recession.

Wall Street has been closely watching the latest economic updates for more clues on how inflation is impacting the economy and whether that could shift the Fed’s position on rate hikes. Wall Street will get a closer look at the employment market on Friday when the the government releases employment data for June.

Investors are also looking ahead to the next round of corporate earnings for a clearer picture of inflation’s impact. Several big companies recently warned that their financial results are being squeezed by inflation, including spice and seasonings maker McCormick.

Technology and communication stocks staged a turnaround and ended higher Tuesday. Apple rose 1.9% and Facebook parent Meta climbed 5.1%. Home Depot rose 1.7%, one of several big retailers that gained ground.

Energy companies had some of the biggest losses as the price of U.S. crude oil slumped 8.2% to $99.50 a barrel. That’s the lowest price since May 10, when it settled at $96.87 a barrel. Exxon Mobil fell 3.1% and Hess dropped 6.8%.

Banks fell along with bond yields. The yield on the 10-year Treasury, which helps set mortgage rates, fell to 2.82% from 2.90% late Friday. Bank of America dropped 1%.

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NEW YORK (AP) — Wall Street took another sharp swing Wednesday, this time back to rally mode, as stocks and Treasury yields rose even as U.S. crude oil prices climbed to the highest level in more than a decade.

The S&P 500 rose 1.9%, recouping its losses from earlier in the week, after Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said he supports a more modest rise in interest rates this month than some investors had feared. He also said he still expects inflation, which is at its highest level in 40 years, to moderate through the year.

“Although we’ve had some Fed governors lately saying ‘Oh my God, this is such a huge crisis,’ the conventional wisdom is slow and steady wins the race right now,” said J.J. Kinahan, chief strategist with TD Ameritrade.

The comments helped drive the market higher, adding to modest gains from earlier in the morning. Other areas of the market also gained ground a day after worries about Russia’s invasion of Ukraine sent the S&P 500 tumbling 1.5% and prices soaring for all kinds of commodities.

Treasury yields climbed after falling sharply earlier this week as investors clamored for safety. Gold receded, and a measure of nervousness among stock investors on Wall Street eased after swinging sharply in recent days.

“We’ve seen wild swings, but not major changes in the indexes,” said Jeff Kleintop, chief global investment strategist at Charles Schwab. “Geopolitical conflicts can be very unsettling, but you don’t tend to get bear markets from these, just periods of volatility.”

Markets have been spinning wildly as investors try, sometimes blindly, to gauge how high Russia’s attack on Ukraine will push prices for oil, wheat and other commodities where the region is a major producer. On top of that are worries about what upcoming hikes in interest rates by the Federal Reserve and other central banks around the world will do to the economy and inflation.

Powell said in testimony to Congress that the Fed is set to raise its key interest rate for the first time since 2018. But he also said the attack on Ukraine may have muddied conditions, with its impact on the U.S. economy “highly uncertain,” adding that “we’re never on autopilot.”

The Fed is balancing a tightrope where it needs to raise interest rates enough to rein in the highest inflation in generations but not so much that it pushes the economy into a recession. All the while, higher interest rates tend to put downward pressure on stocks and most other investments.

The yield on the 10-year Treasury leaped to 1.89% from 1.72% late Tuesday, while the two-year Treasury surged to 1.53% from 1.31%. Yields, though, remain well below where they were before Russia’s invasion. The 10-year yield was above 2% last month, before it plunged as investors plowed into investments seen as safer amid worries about war.

The price of U.S. oil jumped another 7% to $110.60 per barrel, the highest level in just over a decade. Brent crude, the international standard, climbed 7.6% to $112.93 per barrel.

Leaders of OPEC and other major oil-producing countries decided Wednesday to stick with their plan to gradually increase oil production. The OPEC+ coalition of oil producers, made up of OPEC members led by Saudi Arabia and non-cartel members led by Russia, chose to increase oil production by 400,000 barrels per day in April.

The move follows a perhaps less impactful decision by the United States and other major governments in the International Energy Agency to release 60 million barrels from strategic reserves to boost supplies.

“Markets dismissed the notion that 60 million barrels of strategic reserves released will be consequential to the risks of Russian supply jeopardized,” Tan Boon Heng of Mizuho Bank said in a report. “Russia pumps more than that in just six days.”

In the stock market, all the uncertainty about oil prices and inflation has led to big swings not only by the day but also by the hour. The S&P 500 swung between gains of 0.4% and 2.2% Wednesday. It closed 80.28 points higher to 4,386.54.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 596.40 points, or 1.8%, to 33,891.35, while the Nasdaq composite gained 219.56 points, or 1.6%, to 13,752.02.

More than 90% of stocks in the S&P 500 rose, with technology, financial and health care companies accounting for a big share of the rally. Bank stocks led the gainers, climbing 2.6%, as higher longer-term interest rates can mean bigger profits for them making loans. Energy stocks also helped lift the index as they rode higher energy prices.

Ross Stores climbed 6.1% after the retail chain reported stronger profit for its last quarter than analysts expected.

Ford jumped 8.4% after it said it was accelerating its transformation into an electric-vehicle company and split its EV and internal combustion operations into two individual businesses.

Stock markets around the world were mixed. France’s CAC 40 rose 1.6%, Germany’s DAX returned 0.7% and Japan’s Nikkei 225 fell 1.7%.

Russia’s central bank said stock trading on the Moscow exchange would remain closed Wednesday for a third day, though trading of currencies and precious metals would resume for the first time this week.

Late Tuesday, President Joe Biden announced he was joining U.S. allies in closing the country’s air space to Russian aircraft, the latest in a set of sanctions and other measures meant to isolate Russia.

But Biden also said in his annual State of the Union speech that he would try to cushion Americans against the impact of higher oil prices. “I will use every tool at our disposal to protect American businesses and consumers,” Biden said.

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U.S. stocks notched more gains and pushed to new highs Monday, extending a winning streak that just gave the market its best weekly gain since November.

The S&P 500 rose 0.7%, it’s sixth straight gain. The three major indexes climbed to an all-time high, as did a benchmark of smaller company stocks. Technology and financial stocks helped lead the broad rally. Energy sector companies surged the most following a 2% jump in the price of U.S. crude oil. Treasury yields mostly rose.

Investors have been encouraged by surprisingly good corporate earnings reports, news that a recent surge in new coronavirus cases is easing, and progress in the distribution of vaccines.

“The resilience of the corporate sector has been resounding,” said Ross Mayfield, investment strategy analyst at Baird. “The path of least resistance is still higher.”

The S&P 500 rose 28.76 points to 3,915.59. The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 237.52 points, or 0.8%, to 31,385.76. The Nasdaq composite climbed 131.35 points, or1%, to 13,987.64.

Small-company stocks continued to far outpace the rest of the market, a sign investors are feeling optimistic about the economy. The Russell 2000 index rose 56.43 points, or 2.5%, to 2,289.76.

President Biden and Congressional Democrats appear to be moving forward with their own version of a coronavirus stimulus bill that is estimated to cost $1.9 trillion. The Senate and House took procedural steps late last week to pass the bill using a process known as reconciliation, which only requires 51 votes in the Senate. The Senate is split 50-50, with Vice President Kamala Harris the tiebreaking vote.

“Looks like they’ll get a package together and get it through probably in mid-March, which is when you start to see those emergency pandemic programs expire,” said Tom Hainlin, national investment strategist at U.S. Bank Wealth Management.

In another sign of optimism, Treasury yields continued to push mostly higher. The yield on the 10-year Treasury note rose to 1.17% from 1.15% late Friday, more than double where it was six months ago. While there have been near-zero signs of inflation in recent months, investors believe improving economic fortunes and trillions of dollars in stimulus could make stocks more attractive, and therefore make bond yields rise as their prices fall.

Energy stocks were among the big winners Monday. Marathon Oil notched the biggest gain in the S&P 500, vaulting 12.1%. Occidental Petroleum surged 12.81%.

Tesla rose 1.3% after the company said it purchased $1.5 billion in Bitcoin and pIans to allow customers to pay for their electric vehicles with the digital currency. Bitcoin was up 13.2% to $43,252, according to digital currency brokerage Coinbase.

Investors continue to watch shares of GameStop, AMC Entertainment and other beaten-down companies who have been a focus of online investors the last several weeks. GameStop shares fell 5.9% to $60 after shedding an early gain. The stock had a massive drop last week. Just this month GameStop shares are down more than 81%.

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