Recent nonpartisan polling shows a competitive fight for the two November runoff spots under California’s top-two primary system. Democrat Xavier Becerra has been leading in three polls released last week, while Republican Steve Hilton and Democrat Tom Steyer are closely competing for second place.

Voters across California, including in Riverside and San Bernardino counties, are deciding which two candidates will advance to the general election to replace Gov. Gavin Newsom and lead the state for the next four years.

Although millions of ballots have already been returned, turnout remains modest, consistent with recent gubernatorial primaries. As of Sunday, 15.10% of ballots statewide had been submitted, according to Political Data Inc., a voter data firm. That is slightly higher than the 14.53% return rate recorded three days before Election Day in the June 2022 primary.

The overall number, however, masks a notable partisan shift. Democratic voters are returning ballots more slowly than they did four years ago. About 15% of Democratic ballots had been submitted as of the latest count, compared with 17% at the same point in 2022. Republicans, by contrast, are turning in ballots at a higher rate than last cycle, with 19% returned compared with 17% four years ago.

Paul Mitchell, vice president of Political Data Inc., said several factors may be contributing to the faster Republican return rate. GOP voters are choosing between only two major candidates, while Democrats are sorting through a larger field that includes six leading contenders. Republicans also have a long history of voting early by mail, a pattern that appears to be reemerging after former President Donald Trump discouraged mail voting during the 2020 election.

Among Democrats, Mitchell said the most pronounced delay is among older white voters, many of whom may still be undecided or waiting to vote strategically. Because California’s primary sends the top two vote-getters to November regardless of party, some Democrats may be considering how best to prevent two Republicans from advancing to the general election.

Mitchell said those voters may be trying to cast ballots in a way that improves the odds of at least one Democrat making the runoff.

Kevin Callan, also with Political Data Inc., said the decision carries added weight for Democratic voters who believe the Democrat who reaches November is likely to become California’s next governor. Even voters who are not enthusiastic about any one candidate, he said, may recognize that their primary choice could shape the state’s political direction for years.

Original source: CalMatters

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