Only two California congressional seats are viewed as truly competitive between the parties. In the San Diego area, Republican Jim Desmond, a county supervisor, will face Democratic City Councilmember Marni von Wilpert. In the southern San Joaquin Valley, Republican Rep. David Valadao, who has repeatedly survived difficult elections, will defend his seat against progressive Democrat Randy Villegas.

Some of the most dramatic fall matchups, however, are unfolding within the same party.

In Sacramento, longtime Democratic Rep. Doris Matsui is facing her most serious challenge in two decades in Congress. Matsui, 81, will face Sacramento City Councilmember Mai Vang, a progressive candidate nearly half her age. Vang finished ahead of Matsui in the primary vote count, though Republican voters in the district could play a role in shifting the outcome in November.

A similar generational contest may be developing in the North Bay, where Democratic investor Eric Jones is still trying to secure a general election spot against longtime Democratic Rep. Mike Thompson. Jones has criticized Thompson as ineffective and out of touch, but he trails Republican Ray Riehle in a race that remains too close to call.

Proposition 50 also forced some candidates to make unusual political calculations. Republican Rep. Kevin Kiley, whose district was significantly redrawn, changed both district and party affiliation in an attempt to remain in Congress. Running as an independent in the Sacramento-area 6th District, Kiley advanced and will face physician and former Democratic state Sen. Richard Pan, who finished ahead of a Republican candidate in the primary.

Closer to the Inland Empire, voters in portions of Orange and Riverside counties are headed for an unusual general election between two Republican incumbents. Rep. Ken Calvert and Rep. Young Kim will face each other in the newly drawn 40th Congressional District after Proposition 50 reshaped district boundaries.

California’s vote count remains ongoing in some contests. Although voters finished casting ballots June 2, close races can take days or even weeks to resolve as counties process and count remaining ballots.

In other statewide developments, California college students enrolled in short-term job training programs may soon become eligible for expanded federal aid, but the state is not expected to have the system ready by the federal government’s July 1 target date.

The U.S. Department of Education is giving states until July 1 to launch a new financial aid program that would allow students in short-term training programs to receive federal Pell Grants. Until now, students pursuing training in fields such as automotive mechanics and information technology generally have not qualified for federal aid. Under the expansion, eligible students could receive as much as $3,000 for tuition and living costs.

California, however, is not yet prepared to administer the program. Daisy Gonzales, executive director of the California Student Aid Commission, told lawmakers in May that financial aid systems are “extremely complex.” The commission has said funds may not be available to students until weeks or months after the federal deadline. Gonzales also warned that outreach and planning will be needed so students understand how to apply, saying, “You can’t just introduce a new tool, and then say, ‘Students apply.’”

Gov. Gavin Newsom’s influence over California politics is also drawing renewed attention as he weighs a likely presidential campaign. Newsom has filled more major elected posts than any California governor in recent memory, including vacancies on county boards of supervisors, three seats on the California Supreme Court and three appointments to the U.S. Senate.

Newsom first appointed Alex Padilla to the U.S. Senate after Kamala Harris resigned her seat to become vice president in 2021. After Sen. Dianne Feinstein died in 2023, he appointed Laphonza Butler to fill the vacancy. When Butler chose not to seek a full term, Newsom appointed Adam Schiff to serve the brief period before Schiff’s elected term began.

The vacancies also allowed Newsom to appoint Rob Bonta as attorney general and Shirley Weber as secretary of state. Those appointments could carry political value if Newsom seeks the Democratic presidential nomination, particularly if he faces another California contender such as Harris.

Meanwhile, State Farm is under scrutiny from California regulators over its handling of Los Angeles County fire claims. After finding widespread problems, regulators are seeking penalties and a possible license suspension for the insurer. The review follows claims tied to major Southern California fires, including the Eaton Fire in Altadena.

Original source: CalMatters

The post Generational Divide Shapes Drama in Upcoming Congressional Races appeared first on The Hemet & San Jacinto Chronicle.

Hilton, a British American former Fox News host, received about 25% of the vote in the June 2 primary, with roughly 88% of ballots counted as of Tuesday evening. Under California’s top-two primary system, the two highest vote-getters move on to the general election regardless of party.

Becerra, a longtime Democratic politician who previously served as California attorney general and U.S. Health and Human Services secretary, emerged from a large field of Democratic candidates to claim the other November spot.

In a statement, Hilton said his campaign would lead a movement for change in Sacramento and portrayed Becerra as a continuation of years of Democratic control in California.

“My mission is clear: to go to Sacramento, clean up the corruption, cut your costs, help your business, and fix our schools,” Hilton said. “We can’t keep voting the same way and expect different results.”

Hilton’s second-place finish pushed billionaire Democrat Tom Steyer out of the race despite Steyer spending $215 million of his own money on a populist campaign that heavily emphasized television advertising. Steyer had hoped to turn the governor’s race into a fight within the Democratic Party, but the November election will instead become a more traditional Democrat-versus-Republican matchup in a midterm year likely to be framed by Democrats as a referendum on President Donald Trump’s administration.

Steyer conceded Tuesday evening and endorsed Becerra. In his statement, he said he was proud that his campaign had made “enemies” of state utilities, technology companies and Big Oil. He also said he understood voters who “just couldn’t stomach voting for a billionaire.”

“It is absolutely essential that (Trump’s) handpicked candidate does not hold the keys to California,” Steyer said, referring to Hilton.

Hilton led in polling for much of the primary as Democrats split support among several candidates. His campaign appealed to conservative voters with promises to reduce income taxes and the gas tax, encourage more oil drilling and roll back environmental rules, including California’s greenhouse gas reduction requirements.

He has argued that Californians struggling with high housing, energy and transportation costs are ready to end what he calls “16 years of one-party rule.” The last Republican governor, Arnold Schwarzenegger, left office in 2011.

“The people of California have really been generous in giving the Democratic Party the opportunity to show that their ideas work,” Hilton said last week during a Sacramento news conference where he declared victory early. “I think the patience is running out, really.”

Still, Hilton enters the general election as an underdog in a state where Democrats hold a nearly two-to-one voter registration advantage over Republicans. GOP candidates have reached the general election in every California governor’s race over the past two decades, but Democrats have dominated statewide contests since Schwarzenegger’s tenure.

Hilton has also been endorsed by Trump, who remains deeply unpopular with many California voters. Hilton, however, has embraced the support and argued it could benefit the state.

“I think it’s going to be very helpful to Californians to have a governor who has a good working relationship with the president and his team,” he said.

A central piece of Hilton’s campaign is a proposal to eliminate state income taxes on the first $100,000 in earnings and apply a flat tax rate above that amount. He said last week his campaign may consider raising the threshold after reviewing California’s cost of living. Either version would substantially reduce state revenue, and Hilton has said he would make up the difference by cutting one-third of state spending.

He has not detailed how he would move such a plan through the state Legislature, where Democrats hold supermajorities in both houses.

Hilton was born in London to Hungarian immigrants and began his political career with Britain’s Conservative Party. He became a key adviser in the rise of Prime Minister David Cameron in 2010. Hilton moved to Silicon Valley in 2012, where his wife worked as a Google executive, and later became involved in startups. In 2017, during Trump’s first presidency, he launched a weekly Fox News program, “The Next Revolution,” which ran until 2023.

Original source: CalMatters

The post Republican Steve Hilton Advances to November Race Against Becerra appeared first on The Hemet & San Jacinto Chronicle.

Becerra, a former California attorney general and former U.S. health secretary, had nearly 27% of the vote in the June 2 primary as of Friday afternoon, with roughly two-thirds of ballots counted. His campaign described the result as historic, noting that if elected in November, Becerra would become California’s first Latino governor in more than 100 years and the first Latino elected to the office.

His November opponent has not yet been determined. Republican Steve Hilton was close behind with more than 26% of the vote and appeared most likely to claim the second runoff spot. But Democrat Tom Steyer had not conceded, and nearly 3 million ballots remained uncounted. Because many Democratic voters returned ballots late, the remaining vote could lean more heavily toward Democratic candidates.

California’s primary system sends the top two vote-getters to the general election, regardless of party affiliation.

The makeup of the November race could dramatically change the campaign. If Hilton advances, Becerra would enter the fall contest with a major partisan advantage in a state where registered Democrats outnumber Republicans by nearly two-to-one. Hilton also carries the endorsement of President Donald Trump, who remains deeply unpopular among many California voters.

If Steyer overtakes Hilton, the general election would become a Democrat-versus-Democrat fight between two very different factions of the party. Steyer, a former hedge fund manager, major Democratic donor and climate activist, has campaigned as a progressive and spent heavily from his own fortune during the primary. He drew support from allies of Bernie Sanders, while Becerra attracted more backing from the Democratic establishment, as well as important support and funding from labor and industry groups.

Becerra’s rise came after he had spent much of the campaign polling in single digits. His standing improved after the collapse of former frontrunner Eric Swalwell’s campaign, as many establishment Democrats moved toward Becerra over former Rep. Katie Porter and Steyer.

The shift marked a rapid turnaround for Becerra, who had earlier been among several lower-polling Democrats facing public pressure from state party chair Rusty Hicks to leave the race.

“Guess what? The underdog stayed in the fight,” Becerra told supporters Tuesday night at an election night rally in Los Angeles, calling his strong showing “the everyday miracle of living in a state that regularly makes the improbable seem inevitable.”

The next governor will inherit a state facing major challenges, many of them felt sharply across Southern California and the Inland Empire. California residents continue to struggle with high housing and utility costs, elevated gas prices worsened by the war in Iran, wildfire danger that has disrupted the insurance market, a fragile state budget, expected federal cuts to the state’s health care system and an economy affected by immigration enforcement.

So far, Becerra has not outlined a sweeping break from Newsom’s policies. To address affordability, he has said he would declare a state of emergency to freeze utility and home insurance rates while examining why costs are rising. He also has said he would enforce existing housing laws to make sure local governments plan for new construction. Like other California Democrats, Becerra has indicated he is open to slowing parts of the state’s clean-energy transition and greenhouse gas reduction mandates if needed to keep fuel prices down.

Becerra, the son of Mexican immigrants, grew up in Sacramento and began his political career in the 1990s. As a young attorney, he won a Los Angeles-area seat in the state Legislature and was elected to Congress two years later. He served in the House for 24 years before Newsom appointed him California attorney general in 2017 during Trump’s first administration. He later joined President Joe Biden’s Cabinet as secretary of Health and Human Services.

During the primary, Becerra faced criticism over his time in the Biden administration. Some Democrats revived complaints about his leadership during the pandemic. Opponents also criticized his agency’s screening of homes for migrant children, some of whom were later found working in dangerous or exploitative jobs.

Steyer also attacked Becerra over a late surge of campaign support from corporations and special interests.

Hilton has tried to frame Becerra as a continuation of the Newsom era, tapping into Republican frustration over California’s cost of living and business regulations. Becerra has not offered major departures from Newsom’s agenda and said during one debate that he would give Newsom an “A for effort” on homelessness, even as homelessness has increased significantly during Newsom’s two terms.

Becerra has countered those attacks by emphasizing his decades in public office and his record of suing the Trump administration while serving as California attorney general.

“You can have all these great inflated promises,” Becerra said this week, referring to critics such as Steyer. “But delivery is more important.”

Original source: CalMatters

The post Democrat Xavier Becerra Advances to November Race for California Governor appeared first on The Hemet & San Jacinto Chronicle.

More than a decade later, the system has not consistently delivered that result.

The open primary, used for most state and congressional contests, allows all candidates to appear on the same ballot regardless of party. The two candidates with the most votes advance to November, even if they belong to the same party. In theory, that setup was meant to encourage broader campaigning and give independent and moderate voters more influence.

In practice, most statewide races still end up looking much like traditional partisan elections: one Democrat and one Republican advancing to the general election.

Andrew Sinclair, a political scientist at Claremont McKenna College, said California’s political balance helps explain why. Although Democrats dominate statewide politics — no Republican has won statewide office in California since 2006 — the state is not so overwhelmingly Democratic that two Democrats routinely capture both runoff spots.

There are exceptions. In the current insurance commissioner’s race, two Democrats have been holding the top two positions as ballots continue to be counted. But those cases remain relatively uncommon in statewide contests.

Political analysts say voters also tend to approach the top-two primary much like an old-style partisan primary. Democrats often rally around the Democrat they see as most viable, while Republicans do the same on their side. That leaves less room for candidates trying to draw distinctions based on ideology rather than party label.

That dynamic can hurt candidates who are trying to run as moderates or outsiders. San Jose Mayor Matt Mahan, a moderate Democrat who entered the governor’s race with criticism of “extremism on both sides,” received about 4% of the vote. Progressive challengers without strong party or institutional support can face similar barriers.

Eric McGhee, a political researcher at the Public Policy Institute of California, said many voters are not closely tracking the ideological differences among candidates from the same party.

“The evidence we have of how voters view these contests is that they don’t have a clue who the moderate or the liberal is,” McGhee said. “It’s always a good bet that voters are way, way, way less tapped into the nuances of what’s going on than you are if you’re interested in politics.”

The system also has created opportunities for strategic spending by campaigns and outside groups. In the 2024 U.S. Senate primary, a super PAC supporting Democratic Sen. Adam Schiff spent heavily to elevate Republican Steve Garvey, a move that helped shape the field and damaged former Democratic Rep. Katie Porter’s chances of advancing.

Critics describe that kind of tactic as evidence that the top-two primary can be manipulated by well-funded campaigns seeking the most favorable November opponent.

Democratic political consultant Steve Maviglio, among those calling for an overhaul, has filed a proposed ballot measure that would repeal the system. Opponents of the current model have suggested returning to partisan primaries or moving toward ranked-choice voting, which allows voters to list candidates in order of preference.

The debate is likely to continue as California reviews the results of its latest primary. For voters across Southern California and the Inland Empire, the question is not just which candidates advance, but whether the primary system itself is producing the broader choices and more moderate politics its backers once promised.

Original source: CalMatters

The post California’s Top-Two Primary Falls Short of Voters’ Expectations appeared first on The Hemet & San Jacinto Chronicle.

In the governor’s race, speculation had circulated about the possibility of two Republicans, or perhaps two Democrats, advancing to the general election. Instead, voters may be looking at a more conventional contest between Xavier Becerra, the Democratic front-runner, and Republican Steve Hilton, the former Fox News host.

That kind of matchup is common under California’s top-two system, even though the rules allow the two highest vote-getters to advance regardless of party. In a state where Democrats have not lost a statewide race to a Republican since 2006 and where Democratic registration is nearly double that of Republicans, the result of many November contests can be easy to anticipate.

The question for critics and election analysts is why California does not more often produce two-Democrat general elections in statewide races.

Andrew Sinclair, a political scientist at Claremont McKenna College who has studied the top-two system, said California is strongly Democratic — but not quite Democratic enough to routinely block Republicans from November ballots.

Democratic candidates often receive around 60% of the statewide vote, Sinclair said. That is enough to make many general election results predictable, but not always enough to allow two Democrats to finish first and second in a crowded primary field.

Once the Democratic share reaches roughly 60% to 65%, same-party Democratic contests become more likely, Sinclair said. California, he said, often sits in a political middle ground where Democrats dominate statewide elections but Republicans still have enough voters to secure one of the two November spots.

California adopted the top-two primary after voters approved the system in 2010. Under the rules, all candidates appear on the same primary ballot, and the top two finishers advance to the general election. Party affiliation does not determine who moves forward.

Supporters argued the system would force candidates to reach beyond their partisan bases. Former Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger, a Republican who championed the measure, said at the time that it would help reduce gridlock and partisan fighting in Sacramento. Both major political parties opposed the change.

The reform was also intended to make elections more competitive in districts dominated by one party. Instead of a lopsided Democrat-versus-Republican race, voters in a heavily Democratic district might choose between two Democrats with different policy views. The same could happen in Republican areas.

That has occurred in some races. But if the current vote counts hold, with many ballots still to be counted, several marquee statewide contests this fall are not expected to be especially competitive.

In races for lieutenant governor, attorney general, controller and treasurer, prominent and well-funded Democrats appear likely to face Republicans with steep odds in November. In congressional districts in West Los Angeles and Napa Valley, progressive challengers to moderate Democratic incumbents appear to have fallen short, leaving veteran Democratic Reps. Brad Sherman and Mike Thompson on track to face Republican opponents.

There are exceptions. In the race for insurance commissioner, Democrats Jane Kim and Ben Allen currently hold the top two spots. The 2018 lieutenant governor’s race also featured two Democrats in November, and same-party matchups have occurred in some U.S. Senate races. Still, the more common result remains a traditional partisan contest.

Part of the reason is turnout. June primaries generally draw fewer voters, and those who participate are more likely to be strong partisans. Eric McGhee, a political researcher at the Public Policy Institute of California, said voters often behave as though the top-two primary is still a party primary. Democrats tend to rally around the candidate they see as the strongest Democrat, while Republicans do the same.

There may be some independent or swing voters willing to cross party lines, but McGhee said they are not numerous enough in most June elections to reshape the results.

The governor’s race offered one example. San Jose Mayor Matt Mahan, a moderate Democrat, campaigned on concerns about extremism in both parties, focused on economic issues and pledged to rein in state spending by his own party. Democratic consultant Steve Maviglio, a critic of the top-two system who voted for Mahan, said the mayor seemed like the sort of candidate the system was built to elevate.

Mahan received about 4% of the vote.

“At the end of the day,” Maviglio said, “voters are partisan.”

Same-party contests are more common at the legislative and congressional district level, where one party may dominate a particular region far more than it does statewide. In parts of the Bay Area, Sacramento, Los Angeles and other liberal areas, two Democrats are on track to face each other in November.

Christian Grose, a political science professor at USC, said that over the past decade about one-third of legislative general elections in California have featured two candidates from the same party.

That can allow voters to weigh differences in policy, temperament or effectiveness rather than simply voting by party, Grose said. But it can also lead voters to make decisions based on factors less connected to governing, including race or gender.

In a 2020 paper, Grose found that candidates in top-two states have an incentive to move toward the political center, suggesting the system may have moderating effects even when it does not produce a same-party runoff.

The system may also make it easier for independents to compete. In a newly drawn swing district northeast of Sacramento, Rep. Kevin Kiley, described as a former Republican turned independent, appears to have finished first in his race. Running without major party backing can be more viable in a nonpartisan primary than in a traditional party primary.

Still, the top-two system has drawn criticism for creating opportunities for strategic maneuvering and unusual results.

Tom Charron, co-founder of the California Ranked Choice Voting Coalition, said the system can encourage candidates or outside groups to boost opponents they believe will be easier to defeat in November.

Gov. Gavin Newsom used that strategy in 2018, signaling support to Republican voters for John Cox, whom he viewed as a more favorable general election opponent than Democrat Antonio Villaraigosa. In 2024, a super PAC supporting Democratic U.S. Sen. Adam Schiff spent millions to elevate Republican Steve Garvey, hurting Democrat Katie Porter’s chances of advancing.

The system can also produce “shutouts,” where a party with substantial support fails to place any candidate in the general election because too many candidates split the vote.

That happened in 2012, when four Democrats ran in a San Bernardino congressional race and divided the left-leaning vote. Two Republicans advanced, even though Democrats had a modest registration advantage. A decade later, in a heavily conservative state Senate district east of Fresno, too many Republican candidates split the GOP vote and allowed two Democrats to move forward.

This year, some Democrats worried a similar dynamic could unfold in the governor’s race, where a crowded Democratic field raised the possibility that Hilton and Riverside County Sheriff Chad Bianco, both Republicans, could claim the top two spots.

That outcome did not materialize. Becerra and Democrat Tom Steyer were well ahead of Bianco in the vote count, which Sinclair said showed how unlikely a Democratic shutout was despite the crowded field.

Sinclair said several factors could have made such a result possible: a weak or divided Democratic field, the abrupt exit of Democratic Rep. Eric Swalwell and the lack of an endorsement from the state party or major California Democratic figures. But the concern itself may have prompted some Democratic voters to act strategically and consolidate behind candidates they believed could avoid a shutout.

The renewed debate has already prompted efforts to change the system.

Maviglio has filed a proposed ballot measure to repeal the top-two primary and return California to partisan primaries. He argues same-party general elections leave voters without a true party choice in November.

Supporters of top-two say same-party races can still provide meaningful distinctions, such as a contest between a business-aligned moderate and a progressive. But McGhee said many voters struggle to identify those ideological differences.

Others want California to move in a different direction: ranked-choice voting.

Charron’s group supports a system similar to Alaska’s, where the top four or five primary candidates advance to a ranked-choice general election. Voters rank candidates in order of preference. If their first choice is eliminated, their vote transfers to their next choice.

Several California cities, including Oakland and San Francisco, already use ranked-choice voting in mayoral elections.

Charron said ranked-choice voting could encourage a broader candidate field and reduce concerns about spoiler candidates dividing a party’s vote.

In May, the nonpartisan nonprofit Independent Voter Project launched an effort to bring ranked-choice voting to California through a constitutional amendment that could appear before voters in 2028.

For now, California’s primary system remains in place. But after another election cycle in which the top-two system produced more familiar partisan matchups than political surprises, the debate over whether it has fulfilled its promise is far from settled.

Original source: CalMatters

The post Did California’s Top-Two Primary Deliver on Its Promise to Reshape Politics? appeared first on The Hemet & San Jacinto Chronicle.

Under California’s primary system, the two candidates with the most votes in each contest advance to the November general election, when voters will make the final decision.

Attorney General Rob Bonta, a Democrat, is headed to the general election, where he will face Republican Michael Gates in the race to become California’s top criminal justice official. Gates is a former trial attorney who previously served as Huntington Beach city attorney and as an assistant U.S. attorney. Bonta, along with his predecessor Xavier Becerra, has used the attorney general’s office to file numerous lawsuits against the Trump administration.

In the race for state superintendent of public instruction, several veteran Democratic lawmakers sought the job, including Anthony Rendon, Josh Newman and Al Muratsuchi. But two of California’s most influential education groups — the California Teachers Association and the California Charter Schools Association — bypassed the longtime legislators and endorsed Democrat Richard Barrera, president of the San Diego Unified School District. Sonja Shaw, the former president of the Chino Valley Unified School Board, was backed by both Republican candidates for governor.

As of 9:30 p.m. Tuesday, with 46% of ballots counted, Shaw was leading the superintendent race with 24.7% of the vote. Barrera was second with 19.7%.

The lieutenant governor’s office, while largely ceremonial, carries several responsibilities, including stepping in when the governor is absent, serving on state boards and commissions, and casting a tie-breaking vote in the state Senate. The leading Democratic fundraisers in the race were Josh Fryday, a member of Gov. Gavin Newsom’s cabinet; state Treasurer Fiona Ma; and former Stockton Mayor Michael Tubbs.

With 46% of ballots counted as of 9:30 p.m. Tuesday, Ma was ahead with 20.6% of the vote. Romero followed with 19.6%, while Fryday had 14.3%.

State Controller Malia M. Cohen, a Democrat and the current officeholder, will move on to the November election as she seeks another term as California’s chief fiscal officer. She will face Republican Herb W. Morgan, who campaigned on a pledge to expose government fraud. Meghann Adams, a San Francisco school bus driver from the Tenderloin, also ran for the office on a progressive platform as a Peace and Freedom Party candidate.

Secretary of State Shirley Weber, a Democrat who serves as California’s chief elections officer, will also advance to the general election. Her opponent will be Republican Donald P. Wagner, an Orange County supervisor. Wagner supports requiring voter identification and criticized Weber over the pace of vote counting. Weber was appointed by Newsom in 2021 after serving eight years in the Assembly, then won a full four-year term in 2022. She has overseen California’s universal vote-by-mail system and has said she wants to further expand voting access.

The race for state treasurer drew major fundraising from Democratic candidates, who far outpaced Republicans. The treasurer manages and invests unspent taxpayer money and oversees state borrowing and debt. Anna Caballero, who recently chaired the powerful state Senate Appropriations Committee, and Lt. Gov. Eleni Kounalakis raised hundreds of thousands of dollars from major donors, including labor unions, tribes and businesses. Kounalakis initially ran for governor but left that race in late 2025.

With 47% of ballots counted as of 9:30 p.m. Tuesday, Kounalakis led the treasurer’s race with 36.3% of the vote. Republican Jennifer Hawks, a retired business owner, was second with 26.6%.

California voters are also weighing in on who should regulate the state’s insurance industry, a closely watched office as insurers pull back from the market amid growing wildfire risk. Candidates for insurance commissioner include Democratic state lawmakers Ben Allen and Steven Bradford, as well as Democrat Patrick Wolff, a financial analyst whose campaign has been largely self-funded. The Republican Party endorsed insurance agent Stacy A. Korsgaden.

With 47% of ballots counted as of 9:30 p.m. Tuesday, former San Francisco Supervisor Jane Kim led the insurance commissioner’s race with 24.1% of the vote. Allen followed with 20.3%, and Korsgaden had 17.5%.

Four seats are also up this year on the State Board of Equalization, the five-member panel that is the only elected tax board in the country. The board advises county assessors, sets taxable values for utility and railroad properties, and hears some taxpayer appeals. The seats on the ballot include District 1, covering much of inland California; District 2, representing coastal California north of Los Angeles; District 3, covering the Los Angeles area; and District 4, covering the San Diego area.

In District 1, with 45% of ballots counted by 9:30 p.m. Tuesday, Republican state Sen. Shannon Grove led with 36.1% of the vote. Democrat Nelson Esparza was second with 30.5%.

In District 2, incumbent Democrat Sally J. Lieber was ahead with 53.7% of the vote, with 45% of ballots counted. Democrat John Pimentel was second with 14.5%.

In District 3, with 53% of ballots counted, Democratic Assemblymember Mike Gipson led with 27% of the vote. Democrat Yvonne Yiu was second with 13.9%.

In District 4, with 49% of ballots counted, Republican Denis Bilodeau led with 47% of the vote. Democratic state Sen. Tom Umberg was second with 20.8%.

Original source: CalMatters

The post California Election Results: Who’s Leading in State Races So Far appeared first on The Hemet & San Jacinto Chronicle.

The early results pointed to a strong night for Democrats, a rough showing for wealthy self-funded candidates and mixed fortunes for state lawmakers seeking higher office. They also underscored the continued influence of President Donald Trump in California politics, even in a state where Democrats dominate most statewide contests.

In the race for governor, Republican Steve Hilton, a former Fox News host and British-born political adviser, and longtime Democratic officeholder Xavier Becerra held the top two spots needed to advance to the November election. Billionaire Tom Steyer, a former hedge fund executive and major liberal donor, was trailing in third place, though still close enough that the final result was not yet settled. The Associated Press had not called the race.

Veteran California election watchers cautioned that the final count in a June primary can take weeks. Still, several takeaways were already emerging.

Massive personal spending did not guarantee success.

Steyer spent nearly $250 million of his own fortune on a populist-themed campaign for governor. Even if he ultimately moves into the top two, the result would fall well short of the overwhelming breakthrough that such a record-setting investment was intended to produce.

Garry South, a longtime Democratic strategist in California, said heavy self-funding can become a liability when voters are saturated with campaign advertising.

Steyer was not alone. Patrick Wolff put $600,000 of his own money into a campaign for insurance commissioner. Yvonne Yiu spent $750,000 on her bid for the State Board of Equalization. Saikat Chakrabarti financed much of the multimillion-dollar effort behind his campaign to succeed Nancy Pelosi in Congress. In Los Angeles, Zach Sokoloff spent $1 million of his own money, with millions more from his mother, in an effort to unseat the city controller.

Chakrabarti failed to make the top two, losing out to state Sen. Scott Wiener and San Francisco Supervisor Connie Chan. As of Wednesday morning, the other self-funded candidates were also trailing in their races.

The results were better for more traditional Democrats.

Although anti-establishment politics remains a national force, California voters appeared willing to back experienced Democratic officeholders. Andrew Sinclair, a political science professor at Claremont McKenna College, said Democratic voters seemed to be looking for candidates who could take on Trump.

That helped explain Becerra’s rise after the political collapse of former front-runner Eric Swalwell. Like Swalwell, Becerra brought years of experience in public office and a clear record of opposition to Trump. Sinclair described Becerra as a conventional Democrat who fits the moment for voters focused on fighting Republicans.

Steyer’s status as a billionaire also gave opponents an easy line of attack. And Democrats worried about being shut out of the general election appeared inclined to consolidate behind the candidate polling strongest.

Several Democratic members of Congress also appeared to be holding off younger, more progressive challengers, or at least keeping them in second place. That group included Mike Thompson, Brad Sherman and Doris Matsui.

Party labels continued to matter.

California adopted its top-two primary system in 2010, with supporters arguing it would reduce partisan gridlock by placing all candidates on the same ballot and allowing the two highest vote-getters to advance, regardless of party. The idea was to encourage candidates with broader appeal to the political center.

But statewide governor’s races have continued to follow a familiar partisan pattern. Despite speculation in past years about two Democrats advancing, including the possibility of Gavin Newsom facing Antonio Villaraigosa in 2018 or Becerra facing Steyer this year, California’s gubernatorial general elections have continued to feature one Democrat and one Republican.

The same pattern appeared likely in the races for lieutenant governor and treasurer, where Democrats and Republicans held the top two positions. The main exception, as of Wednesday, was the race for insurance commissioner, where Democrats Jane Kim and state Sen. Ben Allen appeared positioned to advance to November.

Democrats avoided their feared lockout scenario.

For months, party leaders worried that a crowded Democratic field for governor could split the vote and allow two Republicans — Hilton and Riverside County Sheriff Chad Bianco — to claim the top two spots.

That possibility prompted state Democratic Party Chair Rusty Hicks to commission polling in an effort to pressure lower-polling Democratic candidates to leave the race. Almost none did.

Whether Democratic voters strategically rallied to prevent that outcome, or whether the threat was never as serious as feared, the lockout now appears unlikely.

California Democrats have faced similar anxieties before. In 2018, crowded Democratic congressional primaries raised concerns that Republicans could capture both general election spots in competitive districts. That did not happen, and Democrats went on to make major gains in the general election. Democrats also worried during the gubernatorial recall election that a procedural misstep might help Republicans take the governorship. Gov. Gavin Newsom ultimately defeated the recall by a wide margin.

One of the most notable top-two surprises in recent years came in a conservative state Senate district in the Sierra Nevada foothills in 2022, when a crowded Republican field split the vote and allowed two Democrats to advance. The winner, Sen. Marie Alvarado-Gil, later switched parties and joined the Republicans. As of early Wednesday, she was running third in her reelection campaign behind Democrat Jaron Brandon and Republican Alexandra Duarte.

State legislative credentials did not always travel well.

Anthony Rendon, the former speaker of the California Assembly, was once among the most powerful officials in state government. But that influence did not translate into success in the largely nonpartisan race for state superintendent of public instruction. As of Wednesday, Rendon was in fourth place.

State Sen. Anna Caballero, a Merced Democrat who once led the influential Senate Appropriations Committee, was trailing badly in her campaign for treasurer, behind Lt. Gov. Eleni Kounalakis and Republican Jennifer Hawks. Assemblymember Jasmeet Bains, a moderate Democrat, was also behind in her effort to challenge Republican Rep. David Valadao in the Central Valley, with college professor Randy Villegas, backed by Sen. Bernie Sanders, holding second place. Former state Sen. Steven Bradford was in eighth place in the insurance commissioner race.

There were successes for some state lawmakers. Allen was in second place for insurance commissioner, while Wiener and state Sen. Aisha Wahab, both Bay Area Democrats, were leading comfortably in their congressional races.

Original source: CalMatters

The post Five Key Things to Know About California’s Elections appeared first on The Hemet & San Jacinto Chronicle.

Early returns showed Republican Steve Hilton and Democrat Xavier Becerra in position to advance to the November general election for governor, though ballots remained to be counted. Liberal billionaire Tom Steyer was running third and had not conceded, saying the race should wait until every ballot is tallied.

Several Democrats ended their campaigns, including former Rep. Katie Porter, who had once been viewed as a leading contender. Porter acknowledged the difficulty of falling short but urged supporters to remain engaged in the political process.

In other statewide races, early results showed Democrat Fiona Ma and Republican Gloria Romero leading in the lieutenant governor’s race. Democrats Jane Kim and Ben Allen were ahead in the contest for insurance commissioner.

One Inland Empire candidate was also drawing statewide attention: Sonja Shaw, president of the Chino Valley Unified school board, was leading in the race for superintendent of public instruction along with Richard Barrera, a San Diego Unified school board member.

In the treasurer’s race, Democrat Eleni Kounalakis advanced and could face Republican Jennifer Hawks in November. Democratic incumbents Rob Bonta, Shirley Weber and Malia Cohen also moved forward in their reelection bids for attorney general, secretary of state and controller. Their Republican challengers are Michael Gates, Don Wagner and Herb Morgan, respectively.

California’s congressional races were also reshaped by Proposition 50, which redrew districts in a way that favored Democrats and reduced the number of competitive races between the two major parties. Still, several contests are expected to remain closely watched through November.

Only two congressional races are considered strongly competitive between Democrats and Republicans. In the Central Valley, Republican Rep. David Valadao advanced, while Democrats Jasmeet Bains, a state assemblymember, and Randy Villegas, a progressive newcomer, were still competing for the second November slot. In San Diego County, Republican Supervisor Jim Desmond and Democratic San Diego City Councilmember Marni von Wilpert advanced to the general election.

For Inland Empire voters, one of the most significant congressional developments came in the 40th District, where Republican Rep. Ken Calvert, the longest-serving GOP member of California’s congressional delegation, is expected to face fellow Republican Rep. Young Kim after the district was altered under the new maps.

Other closely watched congressional races include the Sacramento-area 7th District, where longtime Democratic Rep. Doris Matsui may face a serious intraparty challenge from Sacramento City Councilmember Mai Vang. In San Francisco’s 11th District, the race to succeed former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi could come down to state Sen. Scott Wiener and San Francisco Supervisor Connie Chan, who received Pelosi’s endorsement.

In the Sacramento suburbs, Rep. Kevin Kiley, who left the Republican Party in March and is running as an independent in a different district, led early returns in the 6th District. Republican Michael Stansfield and Democrat Richard Pan, a former state senator, followed. In California’s rural north, former Assembly Republican Leader James Gallagher and former Senate President Pro Tem Mike McGuire advanced in the 1st District.

At the state Capitol, Democrats appeared likely to maintain control of the Legislature, where the entire Assembly and half of the Senate are on the ballot this year. Many races had already produced apparent top-two matchups within hours of polls closing, though several districts remained unsettled.

In the 4th Senate District, which includes the politically mixed Sierra foothills, incumbent Marie Alvarado-Gil, a former Democrat now running as a Republican, trailed Republican farmer Alexandra Duarte and Democratic Tuolumne County Supervisor Jaron Brandon in early returns.

Assembly Republican Leader Heath Flora, who had lost support from some key GOP groups in his district, held a narrow lead over Democrat Matthew Adams, a teacher. Republican trucker Jim Shoemaker was close behind.

In San Diego County’s 40th Senate District, Republican Kristie Bruce-Lane held an edge over fellow Republican Ed Musgrove for the chance to face Democrat Mara Elliott in November. The race has reflected a divide within the state GOP, with establishment Republicans backing Musgrove and conservative firebrand Carl DeMaio supporting Bruce-Lane.

Beyond the election results, lawmakers in Sacramento advanced a series of bills aimed at strengthening California’s DUI laws and cracking down on reckless driving. Eight of 17 measures introduced this year remain alive in the Legislature, with some moving further than similar proposals have in the past. The legislation followed an investigative series examining weaknesses in the state’s response to repeat DUI offenders and dangerous drivers.

Original source: CalMatters

The post California Election Results: Key Overnight Developments You May Have Missed appeared first on The Hemet & San Jacinto Chronicle.

In the race for governor, Republican Steve Hilton, a former Fox News host and British political adviser, and Democrat Xavier Becerra, a longtime California political figure, were holding the two spots needed to advance to the November general election. Billionaire Democratic donor and former hedge fund manager Tom Steyer remained in third place, trailing by a significant margin but not yet mathematically eliminated. The Associated Press had not called the race.

Final results could take weeks as counties continue processing ballots. Still, several themes were already emerging from Tuesday’s vote.

One of the clearest lessons was that personal wealth does not guarantee electoral success.

Steyer poured nearly a quarter-billion dollars into his self-funded campaign for governor, a record-setting amount meant to boost his populist message across California. But the spending did not translate into a commanding finish.

Garry South, a longtime Democratic strategist in California, said wealthy candidates can sometimes hurt themselves by overwhelming voters with advertising.

Other self-funded candidates also struggled. Patrick Wolff spent $600,000 of his own money in the insurance commissioner race. Yvonne Yiu put $750,000 into her campaign for the state Board of Equalization. Saikat Chakrabarti financed much of his multimillion-dollar campaign to succeed Nancy Pelosi in Congress. In Los Angeles, Zach Sokoloff contributed $1 million of his own money to challenge the sitting city controller, with additional millions coming from his mother.

Chakrabarti failed to finish in the top two, with state Sen. Scott Wiener and San Francisco Supervisor Connie Chan leading that contest. As of Wednesday morning, Wolff, Yiu and Sokoloff were also trailing in their respective races.

The election also appeared to favor familiar Democratic figures over insurgent or anti-establishment candidates.

Andrew Sinclair, a political science professor at Claremont McKenna College, said many Democratic voters seemed to be looking for experienced officeholders they believed could stand up to Trump and Republicans.

That dynamic helped Becerra rise after former front-runner Eric Swalwell’s campaign collapsed. Swalwell had been widely known as a veteran Democratic politician and vocal Trump critic. After he fell back, Becerra — a former congressman, California attorney general and federal health secretary — became a logical landing place for many Democratic voters.

Steyer’s status as a billionaire made him vulnerable to criticism, and some Democrats worried that a divided field could allow Republicans to capture both spots on the November ballot. That concern may have encouraged voters to consolidate behind the Democrat who appeared strongest in polling.

Several Democratic members of Congress also seemed to be holding off younger, more progressive challengers, including Mike Thompson, Brad Sherman and Doris Matsui, who were either leading their races or keeping challengers in second place.

Despite California’s top-two primary system, party labels continue to matter.

The system, adopted by voters in 2010, allows all candidates to run on the same primary ballot regardless of party, with the top two vote-getters advancing to November. Supporters said it would encourage less partisan campaigning and appeal to moderate voters.

But in statewide races, the system has rarely erased traditional partisan patterns. California has never had a governor’s race in November featuring two Democrats, despite speculation in past cycles that it could happen. This year, as in previous elections, Democratic and Republican voters largely appeared to rally around candidates from their own parties.

The races for lieutenant governor and treasurer were also shaping up as Democrat-versus-Republican contests. The main exception appeared to be the insurance commissioner race, where Democrats Jane Kim and state Sen. Ben Allen were on track for the two November spots as of Wednesday.

For Democrats, one major fear did not materialize: a Republican shutout of the governor’s race.

With a crowded field of Democrats and no single candidate dominating early, party leaders had worried that Hilton and Riverside County Sheriff Chad Bianco, the two most prominent Republicans in the race, could finish first and second under the top-two system. Such an outcome would have left Democrats without a candidate in the November governor’s race in one of the nation’s bluest states.

State Democratic Party Chair Rusty Hicks commissioned polling in an effort to persuade some lower-polling Democrats to leave the race. Nearly all stayed in. But early returns suggested Democratic voters either coordinated enough to avoid the risk or that the feared scenario was never as likely as some party officials believed.

Democrats have worried about similar situations before. In 2018, crowded Democratic congressional fields raised fears that Republicans could win both general election slots in competitive districts, but that did not happen. Democrats later benefited from a strong general election performance in that year’s “blue wave.” During the 2021 recall election, Democrats also feared a procedural opening for a Republican candidate, but Gov. Gavin Newsom defeated the recall by a wide margin.

One of the most notable recent top-two surprises went the other way. In a conservative Sierra foothills state Senate district in 2022, a crowded Republican field split the vote and allowed two Democrats to advance. The winner, Sen. Marie Alvarado-Gil, later switched parties and joined the Republicans. As of early Wednesday, she was running third in her re-election race behind Democrat Jaron Brandon and Republican Alexandra Duarte.

The election brought mixed results for state lawmakers seeking higher or different office.

Former Assembly Speaker Anthony Rendon, once one of the most powerful figures in Sacramento, was in fourth place in the race for state superintendent of public instruction, a largely nonpartisan office. State Sen. Anna Caballero, a Merced Democrat and former chair of the Senate Appropriations Committee, was far behind Lt. Gov. Eleni Kounalakis and Republican Jennifer Hawks in the treasurer’s race.

Assemblymember Jasmeet Bains, a moderate Democrat, was also trailing in her Central Valley campaign against Republican Rep. David Valadao, with college professor Randy Villegas, backed by Sen. Bernie Sanders, holding the second-place position. Former state Sen. Steven Bradford was in eighth place in the insurance commissioner contest.

But other state legislators had stronger nights. Allen was in second place in the insurance commissioner race, while Wiener and state Sen. Aisha Wahab, both Bay Area Democrats, were leading their congressional contests.

As election officials continue counting ballots, the broad outlines of Tuesday’s vote are becoming clearer: California voters rewarded political familiarity, resisted several heavily self-funded campaigns and once again showed that the state’s top-two system has not erased the power of party identity.

Original source: CalMatters

The post What to Watch in California’s Elections, From Congress to the Governor’s Race appeared first on The Hemet & San Jacinto Chronicle.

Under California’s top-two primary system, the two candidates with the most votes in each race advance to the general election, regardless of party. While the race for governor has drawn much of the attention, several other offices carry major responsibilities for schools, elections, taxes, public finance and the state’s troubled insurance market.

Attorney General Rob Bonta, a Democrat, is moving on to the general election, where he will face Republican Michael Gates. Gates is a former trial attorney who served as Huntington Beach city attorney and as a deputy U.S. attorney. Bonta and his predecessor, Xavier Becerra, used the attorney general’s office to pursue numerous legal challenges against the Trump administration.

In the race for state superintendent of public instruction, early returns showed Sonja Shaw, the former Chino Valley Unified School Board president, leading the field. With 46% of votes counted as of 9:30 p.m., Shaw had 24.7% of the vote. Democrat Richard Barrera, president of the San Diego Unified School District, followed with 19.7%.

The superintendent’s race drew several longtime Democratic lawmakers, including Anthony Rendon, Josh Newman and Al Muratsuchi. But two major education groups — the California Teachers Association and the California Charter Schools Association — endorsed Barrera instead. Shaw received backing from both Republican candidates for governor.

For lieutenant governor, state Treasurer Fiona Ma led early returns with 20.6% of the vote, according to results reported with 46% counted as of 9:30 p.m. Romero followed with 19.6%, and Josh Fryday, a member of Gov. Gavin Newsom’s cabinet, had 14.3%.

The lieutenant governor’s job is limited compared with the governor’s office but still carries statewide visibility. The officeholder steps in when the governor is absent, serves on various boards and commissions, and may cast a tie-breaking vote in the state Senate.

State Controller Malia M. Cohen, a Democrat, will advance to the November election as she seeks another term as California’s chief fiscal officer. Her opponent will be Republican Herb W. Morgan, who campaigned on rooting out government fraud. Meghann Adams, a San Francisco school bus driver running on a progressive Peace and Freedom Party platform, also sought the office.

Secretary of State Shirley Weber, a Democrat, is also headed to the general election. She will face Republican Donald P. Wagner, an Orange County supervisor. Wagner has called for voter identification requirements and criticized the pace of California’s ballot-counting process. Weber, appointed by Newsom in 2021 after serving in the Assembly, won a full term in 2022 and has overseen the expansion of universal vote-by-mail elections statewide.

In the race for state treasurer, Lt. Gov. Eleni Kounalakis held a commanding early lead. With 47% of votes counted as of 9:30 p.m., Kounalakis had 36.3% of the vote. Republican Jennifer Hawks, a retired businesswoman, followed with 26.6%.

The treasurer serves as California’s banker, managing and investing state funds while overseeing borrowing and debt. Kounalakis, who previously ran for governor before ending that campaign in late 2025, and Democratic state Sen. Anna Caballero were among the best-funded candidates in the race, drawing support from major donors including unions, tribes and businesses.

The contest for insurance commissioner comes at a volatile moment for California’s insurance market, as wildfire risk and insurer pullbacks have left many homeowners facing rising costs and fewer options. Early results showed former San Francisco Supervisor Jane Kim leading with 24.1% of the vote, with 47% counted as of 9:30 p.m. State Sen. Ben Allen followed with 20.3%, while Republican-endorsed insurance agent Stacy A. Korsgaden had 17.5%.

Other candidates for insurance commissioner included former state lawmaker Steven Bradford and Democrat Patrick Wolff, a financial analyst whose campaign has largely been self-funded.

Voters also cast ballots for seats on the state Board of Equalization, the only elected tax board of its kind in the country. The five-member board advises county assessors, sets taxable values for property owned by utilities and railroads, and handles some taxpayer appeals.

In District 1, which includes much of inland California, Republican state Sen. Shannon Grove led with 36.1% of the vote, while Democrat Nelson Esparza was second with 30.5%, based on 45% of votes counted as of 9:30 p.m.

In District 2, which covers coastal California north of Los Angeles, Democratic incumbent Sally J. Lieber led with 53.7% of the vote. Democrat John Pimentel was second with 14.5%, with 45% counted.

In District 3, representing the Los Angeles area, Democratic Assemblyman Mike Gipson led with 27% of the vote. Democrat Yvonne Yiu followed with 13.9%, with 53% counted.

In District 4, which includes the San Diego area, Republican Denis Bilodeau led with 47% of the vote, while Democratic state Sen. Tom Umberg was second with 20.8%, according to results with 49% counted as of 9:30 p.m.

Original source: CalMatters

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