California’s primary election closed Tuesday with voters beginning to sort out a crowded statewide ballot, and early returns offered a clear reminder: party loyalty, political experience and President Donald Trump’s influence remain powerful forces in state politics, even in a heavily Democratic state.
In the race for governor, Republican Steve Hilton, a former Fox News host and British political adviser, and Democrat Xavier Becerra, a longtime California political figure, were holding the two spots needed to advance to the November general election. Billionaire Democratic donor and former hedge fund manager Tom Steyer remained in third place, trailing by a significant margin but not yet mathematically eliminated. The Associated Press had not called the race.
Final results could take weeks as counties continue processing ballots. Still, several themes were already emerging from Tuesday’s vote.
One of the clearest lessons was that personal wealth does not guarantee electoral success.
Steyer poured nearly a quarter-billion dollars into his self-funded campaign for governor, a record-setting amount meant to boost his populist message across California. But the spending did not translate into a commanding finish.
Garry South, a longtime Democratic strategist in California, said wealthy candidates can sometimes hurt themselves by overwhelming voters with advertising.
Other self-funded candidates also struggled. Patrick Wolff spent $600,000 of his own money in the insurance commissioner race. Yvonne Yiu put $750,000 into her campaign for the state Board of Equalization. Saikat Chakrabarti financed much of his multimillion-dollar campaign to succeed Nancy Pelosi in Congress. In Los Angeles, Zach Sokoloff contributed $1 million of his own money to challenge the sitting city controller, with additional millions coming from his mother.
Chakrabarti failed to finish in the top two, with state Sen. Scott Wiener and San Francisco Supervisor Connie Chan leading that contest. As of Wednesday morning, Wolff, Yiu and Sokoloff were also trailing in their respective races.
The election also appeared to favor familiar Democratic figures over insurgent or anti-establishment candidates.
Andrew Sinclair, a political science professor at Claremont McKenna College, said many Democratic voters seemed to be looking for experienced officeholders they believed could stand up to Trump and Republicans.
That dynamic helped Becerra rise after former front-runner Eric Swalwell’s campaign collapsed. Swalwell had been widely known as a veteran Democratic politician and vocal Trump critic. After he fell back, Becerra — a former congressman, California attorney general and federal health secretary — became a logical landing place for many Democratic voters.
Steyer’s status as a billionaire made him vulnerable to criticism, and some Democrats worried that a divided field could allow Republicans to capture both spots on the November ballot. That concern may have encouraged voters to consolidate behind the Democrat who appeared strongest in polling.
Several Democratic members of Congress also seemed to be holding off younger, more progressive challengers, including Mike Thompson, Brad Sherman and Doris Matsui, who were either leading their races or keeping challengers in second place.
Despite California’s top-two primary system, party labels continue to matter.
The system, adopted by voters in 2010, allows all candidates to run on the same primary ballot regardless of party, with the top two vote-getters advancing to November. Supporters said it would encourage less partisan campaigning and appeal to moderate voters.
But in statewide races, the system has rarely erased traditional partisan patterns. California has never had a governor’s race in November featuring two Democrats, despite speculation in past cycles that it could happen. This year, as in previous elections, Democratic and Republican voters largely appeared to rally around candidates from their own parties.
The races for lieutenant governor and treasurer were also shaping up as Democrat-versus-Republican contests. The main exception appeared to be the insurance commissioner race, where Democrats Jane Kim and state Sen. Ben Allen were on track for the two November spots as of Wednesday.
For Democrats, one major fear did not materialize: a Republican shutout of the governor’s race.
With a crowded field of Democrats and no single candidate dominating early, party leaders had worried that Hilton and Riverside County Sheriff Chad Bianco, the two most prominent Republicans in the race, could finish first and second under the top-two system. Such an outcome would have left Democrats without a candidate in the November governor’s race in one of the nation’s bluest states.
State Democratic Party Chair Rusty Hicks commissioned polling in an effort to persuade some lower-polling Democrats to leave the race. Nearly all stayed in. But early returns suggested Democratic voters either coordinated enough to avoid the risk or that the feared scenario was never as likely as some party officials believed.
Democrats have worried about similar situations before. In 2018, crowded Democratic congressional fields raised fears that Republicans could win both general election slots in competitive districts, but that did not happen. Democrats later benefited from a strong general election performance in that year’s “blue wave.” During the 2021 recall election, Democrats also feared a procedural opening for a Republican candidate, but Gov. Gavin Newsom defeated the recall by a wide margin.
One of the most notable recent top-two surprises went the other way. In a conservative Sierra foothills state Senate district in 2022, a crowded Republican field split the vote and allowed two Democrats to advance. The winner, Sen. Marie Alvarado-Gil, later switched parties and joined the Republicans. As of early Wednesday, she was running third in her re-election race behind Democrat Jaron Brandon and Republican Alexandra Duarte.
The election brought mixed results for state lawmakers seeking higher or different office.
Former Assembly Speaker Anthony Rendon, once one of the most powerful figures in Sacramento, was in fourth place in the race for state superintendent of public instruction, a largely nonpartisan office. State Sen. Anna Caballero, a Merced Democrat and former chair of the Senate Appropriations Committee, was far behind Lt. Gov. Eleni Kounalakis and Republican Jennifer Hawks in the treasurer’s race.
Assemblymember Jasmeet Bains, a moderate Democrat, was also trailing in her Central Valley campaign against Republican Rep. David Valadao, with college professor Randy Villegas, backed by Sen. Bernie Sanders, holding the second-place position. Former state Sen. Steven Bradford was in eighth place in the insurance commissioner contest.
But other state legislators had stronger nights. Allen was in second place in the insurance commissioner race, while Wiener and state Sen. Aisha Wahab, both Bay Area Democrats, were leading their congressional contests.
As election officials continue counting ballots, the broad outlines of Tuesday’s vote are becoming clearer: California voters rewarded political familiarity, resisted several heavily self-funded campaigns and once again showed that the state’s top-two system has not erased the power of party identity.
Original source: CalMatters
