Trump’s threat, which he delivered on social media, came after China said it would retaliate against U.S. tariffs announced last week.

“If China does not withdraw its 34% increase above their already long term trading abuses by tomorrow, April 8th, 2025, the United States will impose ADDITIONAL Tariffs on China of 50%, effective April 9th,” he wrote on Truth Social. “Additionally, all talks with China concerning their requested meetings with us will be terminated!

Trump has remained defiant as the stock market continued plunging and fears of a recession grew.

“Be Strong, Courageous, and Patient, and GREATNESS will be the result!” he wrote.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 1,200 points as trading began on Monday morning, and the S&P 500 was on track to enter a bear market, which means falling 20% from a recent high. Even some of Trump’s allies are raising alarms about the economic damage, and financial forecasts suggest more pain on the horizon for U.S. businesses, consumers and investors.

The Republican president has insisted his tariffs are necessary to rebalance global trade and rebuild domestic manufacturing. He accused other countries of “taking advantage of the Good OL’ USA!” on international trade and said “our past ‘leaders’ are to blame for allowing this.” He singled out China as “the biggest abuser of them all” and criticized Beijing for increasing its own tariffs in retaliation.

Trump also called on the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates. On Friday, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell warned that the tariffs could increase inflation, and he said “there’s a lot of waiting and seeing going on, including by us,” before any decisions would be made.

Investors expect the U.S. central bank to cut its benchmark interest rates at least four times by the end of this year, according to CME Group’s FedWatch, a sign that concerns about inflation will be eclipsed by fears of layoffs and a shrinking economy.

Trump spent the weekend in Florida, arriving on Thursday night to attend a Saudi-funded tournament at his Miami golf course. He stayed at Mar-a-Lago, his private club in Palm Beach, and golfed at two of his properties nearby.

On Sunday, he posted a video of himself hitting a drive, and he told reporters aboard Air Force One that evening that he won a club championship.

“It’s good to win,” Trump said. “You heard I won, right?”

He also said that he wouldn’t back down from his tariffs despite the turmoil in the global markets.

“Sometimes you have to take medicine to fix something,” Trump said.

Goldman Sachs issued a new forecast saying a recession has become more likely even if Trump backtracks from his tariffs. The financial firm said economic growth would slow dramatically “following a sharp tightening in financial conditions, foreign consumer boycotts, and a continued spike in policy uncertainty that is likely to depress capital spending by more than we had previously assumed.”

European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said the European Union would focus on trade with other countries besides the United States, saying there are “vast opportunities” elsewhere.

Trump said he spoke with Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba to start trade negotiations. He complained on Truth Social “they have treated the U.S. very poorly on Trade” and “they don’t take our cars, but we take MILLIONS of theirs.”

Ishiba said he told Trump that he’s “strongly concerned” that tariffs would discourage investment from Japan, which has been the world’s biggest investor in the U.S. in the past five years. He described the situation as a “national crisis” and said that his government would negotiate with Washington to urge Trump to reconsider the tariffs.

White House trade adviser Peter Navarro suggested countries would need to do much more than simply lower their own tariff rates to reach deals, saying they would have to make structural changes to their tax and regulatory codes.

“Let’s take Vietnam,” he said on CNBC. “When they come to us and say, ‘We’ll go to zero tariffs,’ that means nothing to us because it’s the non-tariff cheating that matters.”

On Monday, the president is scheduled to welcome the Los Angeles Dodgers to the White House to celebrate their World Series victory. He’s also meeting with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, and they’re expected to hold a joint press conference in the afternoon.

Trump has strived for a united front after the chaotic infighting of his first term. However, the economic turbulence has exposed some fractures within his disparate coalition of supporters.

Bill Ackman, a hedge fund manager, lashed out at Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick on Sunday as “indifferent to the stock market and the economy crashing.” He said Cantor Fitzgerald, the financial firm led by Lutnick before he joined the Trump administration, stood to profit because of bond investments.

On Monday, Ackman apologized for his criticism but reiterated his concerns about Trump’s tariffs.

“I am just frustrated watching what I believe to be a major policy error occur after our country and the president have been making huge economic progress that is now at risk due to the tariffs,” he wrote on X.

Top White House economic adviser Kevin Hassett told Fox News Channel that Ackman should “ease off the rhetoric a little bit.”

He insisted that other countries, not the United States, are “going to bear the brunt of the tariffs.”

Billionaire Elon Musk, a top adviser to Trump on overhauling the federal government, expressed skepticism about tariffs over the weekend. Musk has said that tariffs would drive up costs for Tesla, his electric automaker.

“I hope it is agreed that both Europe and the United States should move ideally in my view to a zero tariff situation, effectively creating a free trade zone between Europe and North America,” Musk said in a video conference with Italian politicians.

He added, “That certainly has been my advice to the president.”

Navarro later told Fox News that Musk “doesn’t understand” the situation.

“He sells cars,” Navarro said. “That’s what he does.” He added that, “He’s simply protecting his own interests as any business person would do.”

Associated Press writer Mari Yamaguchi contributed from Tokyo.

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With more than three-quarters of California’s almond crop headed for export, tariffs could impact where the nut is headed and send ripple effects throughout the state’s economy, experts said. The state is the biggest producer of the world’s almonds, accounting for about 80 percent of the global supply.

Already, China has responded to Trump’s move by raising tariffs on U.S. almonds — and that’s on top of tariffs levied on the nut in the last Trump administration.

“If we start a trade war with, you know, India, the European Union, parts of the Middle East, then the almond industry in California is going to suffer dramatically,” said Colin Carter, agricultural economist and professor emeritus at University of California, Davis. “The price will fall even further and you’ll see orchards being ripped out, farms being lost. There’d be farms for sale up and down the Valley.”

Just weeks into his second term, President Donald Trump has slapped 10% tariffs on China and threatened, then delayed for 30 days, 25% taxes on goods from Canada and Mexico. He has also threatened to expand the trade war by levying reciprocal tariffs on a number of products to match what other countries charge on U.S. goods, which economists say is creating a tough environment for already-challenged farmers trying to plan ahead.

Meanwhile, Trump’s moves have drawn retaliation from U.S. trading partners. China, for example, has said U.S.-grown chicken, wheat, corn and cotton will face an extra 15% tariff while sorghum, soybeans, pork, beef, seafood, fruit, vegetables and dairy products will face an additional 10% — and so will almonds.

Almonds are California’s biggest agricultural export, and the state reeled in $4.7 billion from almond exports in 2022 with about half going to the European Union and India, state farm data shows.

Almond experts said the key for California will be continuing to pursue a range of export markets. “While China continues to be an important market, California almonds are shipped to more than 100 destinations, therefore maintaining a diverse export program is essential,” said Rick Kushman, spokesperson for the Almond Board of California.

Many California farmers in the crop-rich Central Valley have welcomed some of Trump’s other policies, specifically aimed at getting more water to their fields. The area — which grows much of the country’s fresh produce including citrus fruit and almonds — is largely Republican in a widely Democratic state.

But California’s almonds will now face a total tariff of 35% in China. That’s because Beijing placed tariffs on almonds during Trump’s first administration in response to tariffs he levied on Chinese products. The move made California’s almonds relatively more expensive to nuts from Australia, which as a result gained market share in China while California’s almond experts to China declined, experts said.

Since then, many California almond exporters have shifted their focus to other markets, said Zachary Williams, sales director for Stewart & Jasper Orchards in Newman, Calif. He said Canadian buyers currently are scooping up California almonds ahead of tariffs potentially taking effect since the state grows so much of the world’s supply. He said any attempt by India to raise tariffs could spark concern the nut might grow too pricey for consumers there.

The tariffs are a challenge, he said, but an even bigger one is the lack of certainty for almond growers who don’t expect to harvest a new orchard for at least three years and then plan to grow it for two decades.

“The uncertainty is probably more of a problem than the tariff itself,” Williams said. “Uncertainty about whether there will be, or won’t be, is a little harder to plan around.”

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October is here, starting with some early morning fog and cooler temperatures. You can feel and see change, especially this year. I find myself dressing not warm enough or to warm these days. Everything is in full swing with school, work, and of course, the upcoming holidays. So much to do and be aware of. Listen up; your portfolio needs your attention too, especially this year. 

September was pretty much on par with our expectations. I get spooked thinking about October. PMI came out Monday was lower than expectations and below the 50 level at 47. Above fifty and the nation is in expansion, below and it is in contraction. This is the third time in four months it has dropped lower than what the market expected. The month of Halloween has other frights too. 

Many of the key issues in 2019 have some decision points that could move markets one way or another. September escaped these haunts, but we knew the time to pay the piper was coming. BREXIT is one of those dangerous-looking characters this month. The U.K. is due to leave the EURO on October 31st. Boris Johnson says they are leaving with or without a deal. He would prefer a deal. It feels that after years, a vote of no confidence, and another Prime Minister this may be the moment. 

Yes, we are going to talk about the U.S. China trade war. September was given a pass, but October doesn’t seem that fortunate. It is a haunted house issue where around every corner, there could be a new fear. This last week, a comment to delist the Chinese Over-the-Counter (OTC) stocks was made. Besides moments of comments that could move the market, the two countries have plans to meet to move the negotiations forward. The last meeting for the Chinese to tour our farmland was cut short. Even now statements such as the Chinese PM Xi saying, “No Force can stop the Chinese people and the Chinese nation” draw a conclusion this is a tall order. The expectations are that an agreement will be reached. This is propping the market up, and some say artificially. If one isn’t achieved much of the optimism will be bled out. I still don’t see how an agreement is reached. Time will tell. You can “count” on it.

Most are expecting some boo this month. Volatility this month has been up the last few months, and it has been a key month in the last few years. Stay disciplined in your approach. The Feds have dropped rates twice now. It’s wise to follow their lead and their research. Be cautious as this month unfolds and be prepared to take advantage of any swings. There can always be surprises like the oil refinery bombing. I am suggesting to park some profits, lock in some interest rates, and be patient. Don’t be tricked and get that treat in Bootober. 

If you have questions on a particular company or investment and would like our feedback, contact us at my email below. Our team will research and respond to you with our recommendation and opinion.   

Andrew F. Kotyuk, CIMA* is CEO and Principal of Alpha Wealth Management LLC

For questions or investment topics, please email me afkotyuk@alpha-wealth.com.

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Around the world, there are several countries in very difficult unrest that could shift the course of freedom, economics, and power. History is constantly being written, some of the issues and results are minimal, and then there are the cataclysmic changes.   Several issues right now are seeing an acceleration in civil unrest and headed into a showdown. These events are presenting a higher level of risk to global markets and questions around what does this mean and where does this lead.

China and U.S. trade wars, I have highlighted several times. Tensions have risen, and new tariffs have gone into effect on September 1st. Polling around the nation has shown that there is broad support to reigning unfair trade with China and politically there is unity in the posture that for far too long the U.S. has allowed China to take advantage and it’s time to now take a stand. Challenges in China is how to save face if they make a deal as a communist country. Remember, the core of the trade war is around China stealing intellectual property from U.S. companies. As tariffs are increased, which country will blink first or will this come to a head?

During this year, another issue has come to the forefront in Beijing. Hong Kong’s leader passed an extradition bill that allowed extradition to mainland China for trial. Up until 1997, Hong Kong was a British colony. Following this, it held certain freedoms and autonomy as a territory despite being administered by China. The bill was widely viewed as Beijing chipping away at their freedom and deeper control within Hong Kong. The bill unleashed months of mass protests, closures of airports and violence. China has deployed troops as a measure against the hundreds of thousands and sometimes up to a million protestors. Their demands include withdrawing the bill, removal of the leader Carrie Lam, an investigation into the government and treatment of protestors. This week Carrie Lam blinked and withdrew the bill. Protestors are claiming it is too little too late. This adds to China’s brand worldwide and hurts their image while seeking support against the U.S. 

Across the pond, as we said in the Navy, the U.K. is headed into its own showdown. Boris Johnson, the new Prime Minister after Theresa May, stepped down after failing to find a solution regarding Brexit received the Queen’s approval to delay parliament until mid-October. This resulted in U.K. lawmakers voting this week to take control of the parliamentary business. Johnson is now fast-tracked on determining if there is a support to a Brexit no-deal in October 31st. Britain’s exit from the Euro has been at flux, and some fear that their exit from the European Union and the Euro currency could cause others to follow leading to the Euro being disbanded. What once brought Europe together could split it further apart. 

With this unrest outside of the U.S. and the global slowdown, the U.S. is viewed as a safe haven for fixed income and equity markets. The fact that you can rest your assets in the U.S. strengthens our economy and provide an argument that the next recession will be a very small one that is short-lived in our opinion.

If you have questions on a particular company or investment and would like our feedback, contact us at my email below. Our team will research and respond to you with our recommendations and opinion.   

Andrew F. Kotyuk, CIMA* is CEO and Principal of Alpha Wealth Management LLC

For questions or investment topics, please email me afkotyuk@alpha-wealth.com.

Find your latest news here at the Hemet & San Jacinto Chronicle

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