Election Day has arrived, and by tonight Californians and the rest of the country should have a clearer picture of who will control Congress for the remainder of President Donald Trump’s term. Voters here will also decide whether to impose new taxes on billionaires and whether Democrats will extend a streak of winning every statewide office that stretches back to 2010.
Reporters across California are tracking developments throughout the day. Here’s what we’re keeping an eye on.
Turnout appears strong so far. As of Monday, more than a quarter of all ballots — 26.44% — had already been returned, according to the voter data firm Political Data Inc. That’s about 3 percentage points higher than at the same point in the November 2022 midterms, when 23.34% of ballots had come in.
One major legal fight was resolved just before polls opened. For weeks, the Trump administration had pushed to set aside roughly 20,000 California ballots, claiming some had been sent to noncitizens. On Monday, the U.S. Supreme Court rejected the administration’s request to sequester those ballots — a victory for state officials who said the administration’s data was flawed and argued that the Constitution gives states, not the federal government, authority over running elections.
Gov. Gavin Newsom, meanwhile, has deployed 134 election attorneys to five congressional districts in the Sacramento area, the Central Valley, Orange County and San Diego. Newsom says the move is meant to counter what he calls potential interference from federal monitors, and that the attorneys will remain in place “as long as necessary.” Speaking on a late-night show last week when he unveiled the plan, Newsom said bluntly, “We’re not screwing around, nor is (Trump).”
Beyond California’s borders, control of the House could hinge on roughly 18 tossup races in states including Iowa, Michigan, Ohio, New York and Pennsylvania — and the outcome might become clear before California finishes counting its own votes. Democrats need to reach 218 seats to claim a narrow majority. Flipping the Senate is a steeper climb, requiring Democrats to pick up four additional seats.
Voters should also brace for what’s become a familiar pattern in close elections: the so-called “red mirage.” Early returns in tight races often show Republican candidates leading or outperforming expectations, only for Democrats to close the gap — or pull ahead — as more ballots are counted. CalMatters reporter Ryan Sabalow has documented this phenomenon in California races before, including June’s Los Angeles mayoral contest. The shift isn’t evidence of any rigging; it simply reflects that Republican voters have historically returned their ballots earlier, while California’s vote-counting process tends to stretch on for days or weeks. This year could look a bit different, however, since Democrats have reportedly been casting ballots earlier than usual, both in California and in other states, according to recent polling and reporting.
Readers who haven’t yet voted — or who know someone still undecided — can find candidate and measure information in CalMatters’ voter guide before polls close.
In other news, a new California law aims to give college students more leverage when negotiating their financial aid packages. Generally, students can’t receive aid beyond what a college lists as its total cost of attendance, covering tuition, housing, food, books and other expenses. But those published estimates frequently fall short of what students actually spend, sometimes by thousands of dollars.
Beginning in fall 2027, colleges will be required to spell out how students can request adjustments to their official cost of attendance, potentially unlocking additional aid from state, federal or private sources. Jackie Cordero, a UC Santa Cruz student currently navigating that process, says it hasn’t been straightforward. She’s had trouble gathering the financial paperwork her school has requested and admits she’s still not entirely clear on how the appeals process works. “I still am a little confused about the process and approaching (the financial aid office) can be a little difficult,” she said.
On the newsroom side, CalMatters has a new addition: Agnes Varnum has joined as director of editorial events. She’ll oversee the organization’s live programming, from policy discussions in Sacramento to its statewide Ideas Festival. Varnum previously spent eight years building out event programming at The Texas Tribune, including running the Texas Tribune Festival, and has more than 15 years of experience bringing journalism into live settings. She recalled one unforgettable moment from her time in Texas: the debut of an outdoor festival component was hit by a sudden downpour, yet Sen. Amy Klobuchar of Minnesota kept speaking to a packed, rain-soaked tent of attendees who refused to leave. The skies eventually cleared, and the event went on to be a success.
In commentary, CalMatters columnist Dan Walters writes that the state’s revised water flow plan, announced last week, is being framed by Newsom as a truce — but is more likely just the latest chapter in California’s long-running water disputes. Separately, Laura Brill, head of The Civics Center, argues that election officials and advocates shouldn’t overlook the nearly 1 million young Californians who are eligible to vote but haven’t registered, noting that ballots cast by same-day registrants count just as much as anyone else’s.
Original source: CalMatters
