California’s bold gamble to counter Texas Republicans with its own round of congressional map-making has paid off in dramatic fashion, but the long-term future of redistricting in the state remains very much up in the air.
Last year, after Texas GOP lawmakers redrew their congressional boundaries in a bid to pick up five additional seats, Gov. Gavin Newsom and Democratic legislative leaders responded in kind, pushing through a California map designed to flip five seats in the opposite direction. Both efforts, along with similar moves in a handful of other states, were part of a broader national fight over control of a House majority that has hinged on razor-thin margins.
On Tuesday, the outcome of that national chess match became clear — and it did not go the way Texas Republicans had hoped. Democrats captured four of the five seats GOP mapmakers had targeted in Texas. Meanwhile, California’s countermove proved even more effective than planned, as five sitting Republican members of Congress from the state lost their seats.
Before the election, Republicans held just eight of California’s 52 congressional seats, along with one formerly GOP lawmaker now serving as an independent. That number has now dropped to a mere four — even though roughly a quarter of California voters are registered Republicans.
The results reflect both the political will of Newsom and Democratic lawmakers to influence the national balance of power in Congress, and the technical skill of Sacramento redistricting consultant Paul Mitchell, who was brought in by Democrats to design the new maps.
The plan, approved by the Legislature and placed before voters as Proposition 50 in a special election last year, didn’t unfold in exactly the way strategists anticipated — but the end result delivered precisely what Newsom and his allies were hoping for. The victory also reinforces Newsom’s reputation as an aggressive political operator, a profile that could serve him well as he weighs an all-but-certain run for the Democratic presidential nomination in 2028.
Interestingly, neither the unsuccessful Texas gerrymander nor California’s successful one turned out to be the deciding factor in the broader Democratic wave that swept the party into firm control of both chambers of Congress this cycle.
Still, California now finds itself with five new members of Congress who are likely to hold their seats for at least six years, through the 2030 election. Under current law, the state’s gerrymandered 52-district map will remain in place through that election, after which authority would shift back to the independent redistricting commission for the 2032 cycle and beyond.
But the path forward may not be so straightforward. A mix of political self-interest and shifting demographics could put California Democrats in a tricky spot.
The five newly elected Democrats will almost certainly want to protect their seats beyond 2030. Yet that year’s census is expected to confirm what demographers have long suspected — California’s population growth has stalled, and the state may have even lost residents since the 2020 count.
Because congressional representation is tied directly to population changes over the preceding decade, California’s flat or declining numbers could cost the state anywhere from three to five seats in the 435-member House.
If control of redistricting reverts to the independent commission as scheduled, it would likely scale back — or potentially eliminate entirely — the five extra seats Democrats gained through this year’s gerrymander, regardless of whether the state’s overall delegation shrinks.
And if California does lose seats overall, an independent, nonpartisan map could end up costing Democrats more than the five seats they just picked up, potentially restoring a handful of districts to Republican control.
Even after 2030, Democrats are expected to maintain firm control over state government, which means party leaders will ultimately decide whether to let the redistricting commission proceed with its work — or seek to dismantle it through another ballot measure in 2028 or 2030.
Many Democratic leaders have never been fully comfortable with commission-led redistricting, a system imposed on the Legislature by voters through a pair of initiatives championed by former Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger in 2008 and 2010.
Eliminating the commission would hand map-drawing authority back to the Legislature, giving Democratic leaders — potentially with Paul Mitchell’s help once again — the ability to craft districts that maximize their party’s advantage.
That’s essentially what Democratic lawmakers did, or attempted to do, following the 1980, 1990 and 2000 censuses, and it’s a strategy they may well be tempted to revisit after 2030.
Given the political stakes, it wouldn’t be surprising if gerrymandering in California becomes less of a temporary political tactic and more of a lasting fixture of the state’s political landscape.
Original source: CalMatters
