With Election Day approaching, California’s race for governor remains unsettled, with recent polling pointing to a close contest for the two spots that will advance to the November ballot.
Three nonpartisan polls released last week showed Democrat Xavier Becerra leading the field, while Republican Steve Hilton and Democrat Tom Steyer were running closely for second place. Under California’s top-two primary system, the two candidates who receive the most votes advance to the general election regardless of party.
A major factor clouding the race is the pace of ballot returns among Democratic voters. Although millions of Californians have already voted by mail or returned ballots, turnout remains low compared with general elections. As of Sunday, 15.10% of ballots statewide had been submitted, according to Political Data Inc., a voter data firm. That is nearly in line with the June 2022 primary, when 14.53% of ballots had been returned three days before Election Day.
But the partisan breakdown shows a notable shift. Democratic voters have returned 15% of their ballots so far, down from 17% at the same point in 2022. Republican voters, meanwhile, are moving faster than they did four years ago, with 19% of GOP ballots returned, compared with 17% in 2022.
Paul Mitchell, vice president of Political Data Inc., said several factors may explain the difference. Republican voters have a simpler choice, with two major candidates in the race, while Democrats are weighing a larger field that includes six leading contenders. Republicans also have a long history of voting early by mail, a habit Mitchell said may be returning after former President Donald Trump discouraged mail voting in 2020.
Among Democrats, Mitchell said the slowest ballot returns are coming from older white voters, many of whom may still be undecided or waiting to vote strategically. Because California’s primary rules allow two candidates from the same party to advance, some Democratic voters may be concerned about how best to ensure at least one Democrat reaches the November runoff.
“All the stories about two Republicans making the runoff, they might be calculating their vote to make sure that they’re voting in a way that is strategic to make sure that a Democrat gets onto the general election,” Mitchell said.
Kevin Callan, also with Political Data Inc., said some Democrats may not be deeply enthusiastic about any one candidate but still recognize that the June result could effectively decide the state’s next governor.
“Democrat voters know that whichever Democrat candidate makes it into the runoff will be our next governor,” Callan said. “That adds more weight to their decision.”
For voters across Southern California and the Inland Empire, the outcome of the primary will determine who remains in contention to lead the nation’s most populous state for the next four years. With many ballots still outstanding, the final hours of voting could prove decisive.
Original source: CalMatters
