Online prediction marketplace Kalshi contributed $39,200 to Xavier Becerra’s gubernatorial campaign on Friday, only days before California voters choose the two candidates who will advance to the November general election.
At the same time, Kalshi’s own market was showing Becerra with a 74% chance of winning the governor’s race as of Monday afternoon.
The contribution, one of the company’s largest reported donations to a California state candidate, is drawing scrutiny from campaign finance advocates who say it raises questions about whether a prediction market should financially support candidates while offering contracts tied to those same candidates’ electoral prospects.
Trent Lange, executive director of the California Clean Money Campaign, said the situation is troubling because betting markets can influence how voters view a candidate’s strength, even though the public may not have a full understanding of how the odds are shaped.
“It does seem especially problematic when a betting market is giving large contributions to any candidate that they are holding betting markets for,” Lange said.
Kalshi declined to comment on the donation or whether it presents a conflict of interest.
Lange said prediction markets can affect public perception by signaling which candidates appear viable, potentially influencing voters before they cast ballots.
“We do know that people often look to where candidates stand on the betting markets to see how viable people think they are and it may actually change many people’s votes,” he said.
Becerra’s campaign did not answer specific questions about the Kalshi contribution or the company’s market on his chances of winning.
“Californians from every walk of life are lining up to support Xavier Becerra,” campaign spokesperson Jonathan Underland said in a written statement.
Kalshi, founded in 2018, has recently expanded its political activity in California. Since the second quarter of 2025, the company has given $115,000 to state candidates, including Becerra, and $100,000 to the California Democratic Party. It also reported spending $72,000 lobbying state officials, including lawmakers, the attorney general and the governor.
Late last year, Kalshi joined Crypto.com, Coinbase and Robinhood in launching an advocacy organization called the Coalition for Prediction Markets. The group, led by former Democratic staffers, registered to lobby in California earlier this year.
Kalshi and the coalition have lobbied on state legislation involving prediction markets and online gambling. One bill would require the attorney general to investigate prediction market payouts of at least $5,000 when the outcome involves national security. Another bill seeks to prevent children from gambling online.
Both measures remain under consideration in the Assembly. State disclosure filings do not indicate whether Kalshi supported or opposed the bills.
Polymarket, one of Kalshi’s largest competitors, has not reported any California campaign contributions or state lobbying expenses.
Original source: CalMatters
