Gov. Gavin Newsom’s successful push to redraw California’s congressional map is now facing its real test: whether Democrats can convert newly favorable districts into seats in Congress.
The mid-decade redistricting plan, approved last year by the Legislature and then by voters through Proposition 50, was designed to make five Republican-held congressional seats more winnable for Democrats. The move came as Texas Republicans, encouraged by President Donald Trump, pursued their own redistricting effort aimed at adding five GOP seats in the U.S. House.
With Republicans holding only a narrow majority in the House, both parties have treated redistricting as a high-stakes fight over control of Congress. Democrats are hoping that Trump’s unpopularity, combined with the historical tendency for a president’s party to lose seats in midterm elections, will help them retake the chamber.
For Newsom, the California plan offered several political advantages. It allowed him to cast the state’s redistricting effort as a direct response to Trump and Texas Republicans, gave Democrats a chance to gain ground in the House and strengthened Newsom’s national profile as he continues to be discussed as a possible 2028 presidential contender. California voters backed the measure by nearly a 2-to-1 margin in a special election.
This month’s primary results showed how much the new lines may matter, though they also made clear that Democrats are not guaranteed to win all five targeted seats.
At this point, Democrats appear likely to pick up at least some of the districts Proposition 50 was intended to shift. But Republicans remain competitive in several races, including one in the Central Valley and another that reaches into Riverside County.
Rep. David Valadao, a Republican from the San Joaquin Valley, may have received a boost from the primary outcome in the newly drawn 22nd District. Progressive Randy Villegas defeated moderate Democrat Jasmeet Bains, setting up a November race in a district where Democrats hold an 18-percentage-point voter registration advantage.
That advantage is significant, but the district’s Democratic electorate is more moderate than in many coastal areas of California. Villegas has been endorsed by U.S. Sen. Bernie Sanders, a democratic socialist, and Republicans are expected to argue that his politics are too far left for Central Valley voters. That dynamic could give Valadao a path to holding on in a district designed to favor Democrats.
Another closely watched contest is in the 6th District, which includes suburban communities around Sacramento. Rep. Kevin Kiley, who dropped his Republican party label, advanced from the primary and will face Democrat Richard Pan, a former state legislator, in November. Democrats hold a voter registration advantage of less than 9 percentage points there, leaving Kiley with a realistic chance in the general election.
Southern California voters will be watching the 48th District, newly redrawn to include parts of San Diego and Riverside counties. Rep. Darrell Issa, a Republican, is retiring, opening the seat for a competitive race. Republican Jim Desmond, a San Diego County supervisor, will face Democrat Marni von Wilpert, a member of the San Diego City Council.
The district has only a narrow Democratic registration edge, making it one of the more uncertain contests created by the new map. For Inland Empire voters in the Riverside County portion of the district, the race could become one of the region’s most closely followed congressional contests in November.
The range of possible outcomes remains wide. Democrats could gain all five seats targeted by Proposition 50, or they could end up with as few as two. Whether California’s redistricting effort proves decisive in the national fight for the House will depend heavily on what happens in other states.
California and Texas were not alone in reopening the redistricting battle. Their competing efforts prompted similar moves in a number of Republican- and Democratic-controlled states. Those efforts intensified after the U.S. Supreme Court ruled in April that a long-standing interpretation of the Voting Rights Act as it applies to redistricting could no longer stand.
In a case originating in Louisiana, the court held that deliberately drawing districts for specific racial or ethnic communities amounted to unconstitutional racial gerrymandering. Soon after, Louisiana lawmakers eliminated one of the state’s two districts represented by Black Democrats and redrew it to favor Republicans.
Other Republican-led states moved in similar directions, while some Democratic-led states tried to follow California’s example. Virginia was one of the most visible attempts, but that state’s Supreme Court struck down a redistricting ballot measure, and the U.S. Supreme Court declined to step in.
Nationally, Republicans appear to be gaining more from the current round of redistricting fights, though the final balance is still unclear. An effort to redraw Alabama’s congressional districts remains unresolved. If it succeeds, Republicans could gain as many as 10 seats nationwide, according to a CNN analysis.
In California, however, one political beneficiary is already apparent. Newsom’s redistricting campaign, framed as a counteroffensive against Trump and Republican mapmaking in Texas, has strengthened his standing among Democrats nationally. Even if the party falls short of winning all five targeted seats in November, the campaign has helped position him as one of the more prominent potential contenders for the White House in 2028.
Original source: CalMatters
