Money is proving to be one of the few advantages Republicans can claim in California’s fight to hold onto Congress this fall, even as the party braces for a difficult national environment shaped by an unpopular president and rising living costs tied to an ongoing war.
New congressional maps approved by California voters were drawn with the goal of flipping five Republican-held seats to Democrats. Three of those GOP incumbents were left with little chance of survival once their districts turned solidly blue. But in the two remaining battlegrounds, seats Democrats consider essential to retaking the House, costly and divisive primary fights have left Democratic nominees with noticeably thinner campaign accounts heading into the general election.
In the Central Valley’s 22nd District, Republican incumbent David Valadao reported more than $3.3 million in cash on hand, according to federal filings submitted this week. His Democratic challenger, community college professor and school board member Randy Villegas, has just $571,000 available. Villegas had to fight off Assemblymember Jasmeet Bains, the candidate favored by the Democratic establishment, in a bruising primary that forced his campaign to spend more than $1.45 million in the two months before the June 2 election. Valadao, by contrast, spent less than $280,000 over that same stretch.
Farther south, in the 48th District, Republican San Diego County Supervisor Jim Desmond holds roughly $1.2 million in reserve. His Democratic opponent, San Diego City Councilmember Marni von Wilpert, has $825,000 on hand after beating back a primary challenge from fellow Democrat Ammar Campa-Najjar.
A similar pattern is playing out in the Sacramento suburbs, where Rep. Kevin Kiley, who left the Republican Party to run as an independent, has more than $2.1 million banked. His Democratic rival, former state Sen. Richard Pan, has just $359,000 available.
The gap has been amplified by a U.S. Supreme Court ruling last month that struck down long-standing limits on how much political parties can spend in direct coordination with the candidates they back. Previously, television stations were required to give candidates their lowest advertising rates, while political parties and outside groups paid significantly more for the same airtime — a dynamic that tended to favor Democrats, who generally out-raise Republicans through small-dollar donations. The court’s decision effectively extends those discounted ad rates to party committees as well, and the Republican National Committee currently has far deeper pockets than its Democratic counterpart.
As of the end of May, the RNC reported more than $125 million in the bank, while the Democratic National Committee was more than $3 million in debt, according to federal records. The National Republican Congressional Committee, the House GOP’s campaign arm, has more than $81 million on hand — more than double what its Democratic counterpart has available.
“This is another arrow in Republicans’ quiver heading into November,” said RNC spokesman Nick Poche in a written statement.
Democratic strategists, however, aren’t sounding alarms just yet. Paul Mitchell, a Democratic political data expert who studies redistricting, said the ruling likely won’t be as decisive as Republicans hope.
“I don’t see this as being, like, the biggest unlock,” Mitchell said, noting that well-funded Republican campaigns likely would have found ways to direct outside money to competitive races regardless of the ruling. He said the decision will more likely reshape how Democratic campaigns divide responsibilities — for example, allowing party committees to handle television advertising while candidates redirect their own funds toward field organizing and voter outreach.
Despite trailing in cash reserves, Democratic candidates in California’s competitive districts still out-fundraised their Republican rivals in the period leading up to the primary. Villegas brought in nearly twice as much as Valadao in the reporting period ending June 30. Von Wilpert outpaced Desmond by more than 3-to-1, collecting roughly $871,000 compared to his $272,000.
It remains uncertain whether national Republican committees will actually direct significant resources into California’s expensive media markets, even with more cash available to spend. The nonpartisan Cook Political Report currently lists just 18 of the nation’s 435 House seats as true toss-ups, with 10 leaning Democratic and nine leaning Republican.
“They want to play where they can win seats,” said longtime California GOP consultant Rob Stutzman. “Money doesn’t solve everything, and they’re on defense in a lot of places.”
Original source: CalMatters
