California’s June primary offered fresh evidence that the Democratic Party’s grip on state politics may rest on shakier ground than it appears, according to a prominent political strategist who has spent the past two years dissecting the party’s national struggles.
This November, Californians will select a new governor, decide other statewide races and fill 152 legislative and congressional seats. Few doubt that Democrats will once again dominate those contests, continuing a run of control that stretches back three decades. The real question heading into the fall is narrower: whether the party can flip all five additional congressional seats it targeted through last year’s voter-approved redistricting overhaul.
But beneath that likely victory lies a warning, says veteran strategist Paul Rivera, who authored the Democratic National Committee’s post-mortem on the party’s 2024 losses. When the DNC released a condensed version of his findings in May, it left out a section that criticized then-President Joe Biden’s late withdrawal from the race and the hurried elevation of Vice President Kamala Harris, a Californian, as his replacement on the ticket.
Rivera has since published a far more expansive account of his research — a 564-page reassessment arguing that Democrats have drifted away from working-class voters, become too reliant on wealthy, insulated political consultants, and allowed a class of operatives to grow “generationally wealthy off politics” while the party’s grassroots infrastructure withers.
His critique doesn’t spare the party’s overall strategic posture. While Republicans wage a near-constant campaign against Democrats, Rivera argues, Democratic organizing tends to surge only in election years, when money floods into competitive races at the eleventh hour after months of inattention to community-level organizing.
“The difference is right-wing interests take a longer-term approach and amplify polarizing Democratic messaging and candidates with the intention of ‘othering’ all Democrats,” Rivera writes. “Without aggressive pushback and tactics, it works.”
California’s primary, in Rivera’s view, illustrates exactly the kind of structural weakness he’s describing. He notes that the state mails ballots automatically to every registered voter, yet turnout among younger residents remained strikingly low.
“The data from the 2026 California primary, a state where all voters are proactively mailed their ballots, should be a critical warning sign for Democrats everywhere,” Rivera writes. He points out that only 21% of voters under 35 cast ballots, compared with 58% of those 65 and older. Turnout gaps by race were similarly pronounced: 26% among Hispanic voters, 34% among Asian voters and 37% among Black voters, all lagging behind the 43% turnout rate among white voters.
“Will Democrats win California in November? Of course,” Rivera writes. “Yet in these unprecedented times, why is there not more energy in opposition to the status quo? If these patterns play out in battleground states and districts — where younger Americans and non-white voters do not participate to support Democrats — it will be very difficult to win the House or Senate or build power in the states.” He adds that Republicans are likely to outspend Democrats nationally this cycle for the first time since 2018, making superior organizing all the more essential for Democratic success.
Rivera also frames California as a preview of broader demographic shifts working against the party. He points to sluggish population growth — or outright decline — in Democratic strongholds such as California, New York and Illinois, contrasted with steady gains in Republican-leaning states like Texas and Florida.
Those trends carry long-term political consequences. When congressional districts are redrawn following the 2030 census, California and similar states are expected to lose presidential electoral votes, while growing red states stand to gain influence.
“This should bring sharp focus to the scope and scale of the challenges before Democrats,” Rivera writes. “Without change, Democrats will be locked out of power. National neglect is what led Democrats to this moment — more of the same is not the answer. None of this will be easy, but moving past talk and into action on some or all of these takeaways can make a massive difference in outcomes for the party and for the country. It’s time to get to work.”
Original source: CalMatters
