California voters are poised to play an outsized role in determining which party controls the U.S. House of Representatives — and by how wide a margin — once ballots are finalized in Tuesday’s 2026 midterm elections.
Democrats appear likely to flip at least three seats currently held by California Republicans, a shift set in motion after voters approved Proposition 50 last year. That measure redrew five of California’s congressional districts to favor Democrats, a direct response to Republican-led redistricting efforts in Texas.
Two other redrawn districts — one in the Central Valley and another spanning San Diego and Riverside counties — remain genuinely competitive, even though registered Democrats outnumber Republicans in both.
Meanwhile, several contests feature progressive challengers trying to unseat longtime incumbents, races that could push the party further left if they succeed.
With counties accepting mail ballots for up to seven days after Election Day, a number of California’s congressional races are expected to stay too close to call for some time.
Here’s what stands out as the results come in.
Central Valley and San Diego-area seats could prove decisive
The closest race in the state pits Republican Rep. David Valadao of Hanford — a 12-year incumbent, dairy farmer and frequent target of national Democrats — against political newcomer Randy Villegas, a political science professor.
Democrats are hoping Villegas, who has the backing of Sen. Bernie Sanders and Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, can break through in the historically conservative, agriculture-heavy Central Valley. Villegas supports universal health coverage and universal child care, though he has also called for suspending federal gas and diesel taxes.
Valadao, the last remaining House Republican who voted to impeach President Donald Trump following the Jan. 6, 2021 attack on the Capitol, is seeking a seventh term. He has emphasized bipartisanship and independent thinking, but has faced sharp criticism over his vote for Trump’s sweeping policy package, which is projected to strip health coverage from more than 2 million Californians over the next four years.
Farther south, in San Diego and Riverside counties, two local elected officials — San Diego City Councilmember Marni von Wilpert, a Democrat, and San Diego County Supervisor Jim Desmond, a Republican — are vying to replace Rep. Darrell Issa, who chose not to seek reelection after his district was redrawn.
Both candidates are running notably centrist campaigns reminiscent of pre-Trump-era politics. Von Wilpert has steered clear of the emerging progressive wing and instead campaigned alongside former Vice President Kamala Harris. Desmond, despite earning Trump’s endorsement, has worked to distance himself from the president’s MAGA messaging.
Public polling has consistently shown von Wilpert with a slight edge over Desmond, and the nonpartisan Cook Political Report shifted its rating of the race from a toss-up to “lean Democratic” in March. Still, internal campaign polling suggests the contest remains tight.
Progressives push to reshape the Democratic Party
Several California races feature two Democrats facing off, a result of the state’s top-two primary system.
Among the most closely watched is the contest to succeed former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, who has endorsed San Francisco Supervisor Connie Chan. Chan, a Taiwanese immigrant, has built a reputation for opposing development she believes could displace renters or alter a neighborhood’s character. She faces state Sen. Scott Wiener, a prolific lawmaker who has championed legislation to speed up housing construction and ensure strong wages on state-subsidized projects.
In the Sacramento area, an intergenerational showdown is playing out between 82-year-old Rep. Doris Matsui and 41-year-old Sacramento City Councilmember Mai Vang. Matsui holds a substantial financial advantage, having loaned her campaign $4 million since the primary. Vang, meanwhile, has generated significant grassroots energy as a rising progressive voice, adept at connecting directly with supporters through TikTok and Instagram.
In Los Angeles, five-term Rep. Jimmy Gomez is being challenged by democratic socialist Angela Gonzales-Torres. Gomez won the June primary comfortably, but his standing has slipped amid a House Ethics Committee investigation into sexual misconduct allegations, which he denies. A recent poll showed Gonzales-Torres leading Gomez 51% to 45%.
Upsets in Prop. 50 districts could threaten the GOP majority
Three current or former Republican lawmakers are expected to lose their seats as a direct result of Proposition 50’s redistricting.
Reps. Young Kim and Ken Calvert, both running in California’s 40th District, won’t both survive the race — one of them will be out of a job. Redistricting dramatically reshaped Calvert’s former 41st District, and rather than retire, he chose to challenge his fellow Republican Kim. Both candidates leaned further right during the primary season, though Kim has since repositioned herself as a more centrist, fiscally conservative candidate.
Rep. James Gallagher, who took over California’s rural 1st Congressional District following the death of former Rep. Doug LaMalfa, appears likely to lose to Democrat Mike McGuire, the former state Senate president pro tempore. The district was redrawn to exclude several conservative, rural areas near the Oregon border.
Rep. Kevin Kiley, who left the Republican Party earlier this year, is seeking reelection in the 6th Congressional District rather than his former 3rd District, which was substantially reshaped to favor Democrats. He faces Dr. Richard Pan, a physician and former state senator running in opposition to the “Make America Healthy Again” movement. Kiley is counting on support from Republicans, independents and moderate Democrats to pull out a win.
Original source: CalMatters
