California’s race for governor is beginning to resemble an overplanted field — and some political observers warn that unless it’s thinned out, the harvest could surprise everyone.
With Gov. Gavin Newsom termed out, a large slate of Democratic candidates has entered the June primary, creating an unusually crowded contest in a state where Democrats hold a strong registration advantage. But under California’s “top two” primary system, party dominance alone does not guarantee a spot on the November ballot.
In California, the two highest vote-getters in the primary — regardless of party — advance to the general election. That means if votes are too widely split among multiple candidates from the same party, it opens a mathematical pathway for two candidates from the opposing party to move forward instead.
Political analysts note that Democrats typically command roughly 60% of the statewide vote in primaries, compared with about 40% for Republicans. However, with numerous Democrats dividing that majority share, and only a handful of major Republican contenders consolidating GOP support, the numbers could narrow unexpectedly.
Recent polling shows a tight cluster near the top that includes Republican former commentator Steve Hilton, Riverside County Sheriff Chad Bianco, and Democratic U.S. Rep. Eric Swalwell. Former Rep. Katie Porter and businessman Tom Steyer also remain competitive among Democratic voters.
While many analysts believe it remains unlikely that two Republicans would capture both top spots, simulations suggest the possibility is not zero. Even a relatively small chance has prompted concern among party strategists, who argue that the consequences would extend beyond the governor’s office.
A November ballot without a Democratic candidate at the top could dampen voter turnout, potentially affecting down-ballot congressional and legislative races, as well as statewide ballot initiatives.
The debate now centers less on ideology and more on arithmetic.
Some Democrats appear positioned to continue competitive campaigns. Swalwell has shown modest momentum and appeals to voters seeking generational change. Porter remains a prominent figure with strong name recognition. Steyer has the personal resources to fund a sustained media campaign. San Jose Mayor Matt Mahan has drawn attention as a younger, tech-aligned moderate.
Others face steeper climbs. Former U.S. Health Secretary Xavier Becerra brings significant experience but has struggled to gain traction. Former Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa is emphasizing a centrist message, though some voters may be looking ahead to newer faces. Former State Controller Betty Yee, State Superintendent Tony Thurmond, and former legislator Ian Calderon have yet to break through in early polling.
Political veterans note that candidates often remain in races out of optimism, loyalty to supporters, or simple belief that momentum can shift quickly. History offers examples of campaigns that surged unexpectedly.
Still, some strategists argue that coordination — even informal — may be necessary in a crowded field where vote-splitting carries real risk. The filing deadline looms, and once candidates are officially on the ballot, their names cannot be withdrawn.
In a state where Democratic registration far outpaces Republican enrollment, the contest may ultimately hinge not on party advantage, but on strategy, discipline, and turnout in an unpredictable primary season.
