David Valadao has spent much of his political career leaning on a simple pitch to voters in California’s agricultural heartland: I’m one of you.
Born and raised in Hanford, the Republican congressman grew up milking cows before school on his family’s dairy farm. To many of his Central Valley neighbors, he’s not “Congressman Valadao” — he’s just “David.” That familiarity has helped him survive in a district where registered Democrats significantly outnumber Republicans, allowing him to win five of his six congressional races since 2012.
But as the 2026 midterms approach, with inflation squeezing household budgets and President Trump’s approval ratings sagging, Valadao’s homegrown appeal may not be enough to save him this time.
“Unfortunately, David Valadao’s vote could be the one that gives Trump the power,” said Don Cameron, a longtime Fresno County farmer and registered Democrat who has voted for Republicans in the past. “I wish it wasn’t David Valadao, because he’s a good guy. I just wish the current administration was more moderate and more supportive of agriculture.”
Valadao declined multiple interview requests for this story. A spokesperson said he was unavailable to comment.
Standing in his way is Democrat Randy Villegas, a community college professor and school board trustee running an unabashedly populist campaign backed by the Working Families Party and progressive figures including Sen. Bernie Sanders and Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez. Villegas surprised many in June’s primary by defeating the more centrist, establishment-favored Democrat, Assemblymember Jasmeet Bains.
Valadao has lost reelection only once since first winning his seat in 2012 — during the 2018 “blue wave” that swept Democrats into control of the House during Trump’s first term. He won a rematch two years later against Democrat T.J. Cox. Notably, Valadao remains the only sitting House Republican who voted to impeach Trump following the Jan. 6, 2021, attack on the Capitol.
Villegas, who is not a farmer himself, argues that it’s time for someone who understands farmworkers — not just farm owners — to represent the district. As the son of Mexican immigrant farm laborers, he says he has a personal stake in the region’s agricultural economy.
“Everybody and anybody knows somebody who works in agriculture in the valley,” Villegas said. “And anybody in the valley will tell you that workers and agriculture are struggling right now because of Valadao and this administration.”
A farming legacy
Valadao’s connection to agriculture runs deep. His father, Eduardo, immigrated from the Portuguese Azores, where he had grown up working on his family’s dairy farm. After settling in California, Eduardo and his wife, Maria, built their own dairy operation from the ground up — buying their first cows, then eventually their own land. Valadao grew up doing chores before school, a life he’s often referenced on the campaign trail.
His latest television ad plays up that identity, showing him walking through a tree nut orchard alongside an unnamed farmer with the tagline: “David Valadao is on our side.”
He has also cultivated a reputation as a bipartisan dealmaker, frequently teaming up with fellow Central Valley Reps. Jim Costa and Adam Gray, both Democrats, on water and agriculture issues.
“In the Central Valley, we care a whole lot more about ag and water than partisan politics,” Valadao said in a video posted to his congressional YouTube channel last December.
That reputation has translated into financial backing from agricultural interests. Campaign finance records show Valadao has received more than $30,000 from dairy, poultry and sugar industry political committees. Shannon Douglass, president of the California Farm Bureau, recently praised him for pushing House Republican leaders to direct more emergency relief funding toward specialty crop growers — the fruits, vegetables and nuts that dominate California agriculture.
“Farmers are happy with him, and they sure as hell are going to take him any day over someone that would seem to be a socialist and who doesn’t have any ag credentials,” said Rob Stutzman, a Republican strategist.
A liability on healthcare and food aid
Still, Valadao’s voting record on other issues important to his district — particularly healthcare and nutrition assistance — could work against him.
Democrats have repeatedly criticized him for casting the deciding vote to pass Trump’s sweeping budget package last year, which cut an estimated $28.4 billion from California’s Medicaid program, Medi-Cal, and is projected to strip health coverage from roughly 3.4 million Californians.
“He’s looking out for his billionaire buddies,” Villegas said. “He doesn’t actually care about the agricultural industry here in the valley.”
The same legislation slashed federal funding for the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program, or SNAP, by roughly 20% — a program overseen in part by the House Agriculture Committee, on which Valadao sits.
Rising costs squeeze farmers
Financial hardship is nothing new for California farmers, but the past year has brought fresh challenges. Volatile crop prices and climbing costs for fertilizer and fuel have accelerated a long-term shift away from independent, family-run farms. Between 2002 and 2022, the number of farms in California dropped by roughly 20%, even as the average farm size grew by more than 5%, according to the most recent U.S. Census of Agriculture.
Trump’s unpredictable tariff policies, along with the war in Iran and the resulting disruption to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, have added even more uncertainty.
“It’s been a difficult 16 months,” Cameron said, pointing to surging diesel prices as a particular burden during harvest season.
The American Farm Bureau Federation has urged the Trump administration to deploy Navy escorts to protect fertilizer shipments moving through the Middle East, warning in a letter to the president that supply disruptions could trigger a repeat of the historic food price spikes seen in 2022.
Valadao, however, has largely pinned rising fuel costs on state policy rather than global instability, pointing to California’s gas tax and restrictions on oil drilling.
“We’ve always had the highest fuel prices in California, and it’s not because of a war that started two weeks ago,” he told a Bakersfield television station in March, adding that blaming Iran for fuel costs was “false.”
Latino farmers feel left behind
The impact of rising costs and shifting federal policy has fallen hardest on nonwhite and non-English-speaking farmers. More than 65% of residents in Valadao’s district are Latino, according to the California Target Book.
Advocates say the Trump administration’s restructuring of the U.S. Department of Agriculture has made it harder for underrepresented farmers to access loans and support services that have historically helped them establish and grow their operations.
“Our members were complaining that the USDA offices, their local USDA offices, would tell them they don’t fit the definition of a farmer now,” said Benny Corona, a Tulare County organizer with Latino Farmers and Ranchers International. “They felt like they were being put through a lot of hurdles that weren’t there before.”
Corona, who supports Villegas, said his organization tries to build relationships with lawmakers from both parties but has found Democrats far more receptive.
“I don’t really think Republicans are really interested in promoting and investing in Latino farmers,” he said. “We don’t have a relationship with Valadao.”
Some political observers believe Valadao’s continued skepticism about the economic toll of tariffs and the Iran conflict could alienate voters who might otherwise give him the benefit of the doubt.
“I think he’s very likely to lose this year,” said Mike Madrid, a Republican political consultant. “The fundamentals are too anti-Republican, too anti-Trump for anyone to care.”
Original source: CalMatters
