California voters this fall will decide a contest for insurance commissioner that has become a proxy battle over the future direction of the Democratic Party, pitting a self-described progressive against a candidate the state party establishment has already lined up behind.
Jane Kim, a former San Francisco supervisor, is betting that California voters are hungry for the kind of political upheaval that recently propelled Zohran Mamdani to the New York City mayor’s office and pushed Abdul El-Sayed into a competitive U.S. Senate race in Michigan. She’s making that bet even though the California Democratic Party has thrown its support behind her rival, state Sen. Ben Allen of Santa Monica.
How the race plays out may hinge on several factors: how much attention voters pay to a down-ballot office many people know little about, how much weight disillusioned Democrats give to the party’s official endorsement, and how voters respond to the wave of mailers and advertisements likely to arrive before the November election.
Kim and Allen are competing to become the state’s next insurance regulator, a job that oversees California’s massive insurance market. Kim wants to create a state-run natural disaster insurance program available to all residents and expand low-cost auto insurance to every driver in California — proposals that echo progressive priorities like Medicare for All. Allen, by contrast, is focused on stabilizing and strengthening the existing private insurance market, which has struggled for years with availability and affordability problems driven largely by wildfire risk and a string of catastrophic, deadly fires.
Kim’s pitch appears to be resonating. She led the June primary field of 11 candidates with more than 27% of the vote, while Allen finished second with just over 19%.
“Kim and Allen represent a microcosm of the split happening within the Democratic Party nationally,” said Shauhin Talesh, a UC Irvine law professor who studies insurance and consumer protection. “Both agree insurance companies should be regulated. The real question is how aggressively California should intervene, and what role government should play.”
Allen recently secured the California Democratic Party’s official endorsement — a development Talesh said wasn’t surprising, given that the senator is widely viewed as the more establishment-friendly candidate.
Kim, whose past accomplishments include securing free community college for San Francisco residents and helping create the state’s first $15 minimum wage, previously led the California Working Families Party, a progressive-aligned political organization. She has also picked up the endorsement of U.S. Sen. Bernie Sanders, having worked on his 2020 presidential campaign.
“Is this going to turn into another situation where voters push back against the establishment through their ballots?” Talesh asked. “At what point does the Democratic Party take notice?”
Kim’s challenges extend beyond the lack of a party endorsement. The insurance industry has voiced skepticism about her plans to expand the state’s role in the insurance market, and even some consumer advocacy groups have raised concerns — including Consumer Watchdog, whose founder helped write the 1988 ballot initiative that established California’s current insurance regulatory framework.
Jamie Court, the group’s president, warned that a state-run disaster insurance fund — which Kim says would be financed through a portion of premiums policyholders already pay — would require tens of billions of dollars just to get off the ground, and could be wiped out by a single catastrophic wildfire.
Kim has acknowledged her proposal needs further study but argues that critics are overlooking the need for broader public debate and greater community input on reforming the system.
“I don’t think letting insurance companies keep raising rates is the answer,” Kim told CalMatters in an interview. “People will lose their homes or go without coverage entirely. And that will devastate the economy.”
Allen, for his part, told CalMatters that his opponent’s disaster fund proposal “is effectively a massive subsidy for wealthy homeowners,” since their properties are more expensive to rebuild after a fire.
Maurice Mitchell, national director of the Working Families Party, said Kim’s momentum reflects “a populist wave, not necessarily a progressive one,” sweeping the country. He noted that early results showed Kim performing well not just in liberal strongholds but in traditionally conservative areas like the Inland Empire and Central Valley, as well as in Los Angeles County — which includes Allen’s own district.
Given those results, Jorge Contreras, the Working Families Party’s California director, called the state Democratic Party’s endorsement of Allen a sign of being “out of touch with reality.”
Some Kim delegates complained that their votes hadn’t been properly counted during the endorsement process, prompting Kim to request a recount.
“The votes were counted,” said Robin Swanson, a spokesperson for the party. “And recounted. The outcome was the same.”
Contreras noted that the California Labor Federation endorsed Kim the very next day.
Not everyone agrees with the “moderate” label often attached to Allen — including at least one of his own supporters.
“Ben is a progressive through and through,” said RL Miller, former chair of the California Democratic Party’s Environmental Caucus, who also runs the political action committee Climate Hawks. While the group doesn’t typically weigh in on California races, Miller said she personally backs Allen.
“He has supported us and authored landmark climate legislation over the years,” Miller said, adding that “the tribal nature of Democratic politics these days” may explain why Allen gets cast as the more moderate option.
Allen does have a substantial environmental record, including work on Proposition 4, the $10 billion bond measure voters approved in 2024 that includes wildfire prevention funding. He also authored legislation aimed at reducing single-use plastics.
Allen’s voting record has also aligned closely with some of the same groups now backing Kim, including the California Labor Federation. According to CalMatters’ Digital Democracy database, his legislative history generally has not sided with business interests.
Although both candidates have pledged not to accept campaign money from the insurance industry, Contreras said it’s worth tracking where their funding actually comes from.
Business groups spent $1.5 million opposing Kim’s primary campaign, according to Digital Democracy, with most of that money coming from JOBSPAC, an employer coalition backed by the California Chamber of Commerce.
Meanwhile, Contreras pointed out, “Ben Allen has taken cryptocurrency money, which clearly paid off for him in the end.” Campaign finance records show that Ripple co-founder and billionaire Chris Larsen donated $1 million in May to a PAC sponsored by California Environmental Voters — the largest outside contribution supporting Allen’s campaign.
Contreras predicted that billionaires will continue pouring money into moderate candidates this election cycle. “Why? Because they want things to stay the same. Now Jane is going to be painted as the villain.”
Kim’s largest campaign donors are the California Working Families Party and the California Teachers Association, which have contributed roughly $365,000 and $150,000, respectively.
One key difference between this race and similar contests unfolding elsewhere in the country is that many California voters simply don’t know what the insurance commissioner actually does, said Kevin Liao, a Democratic political consultant who briefly worked on Allen’s campaign before joining Tom Steyer’s gubernatorial primary bid.
That knowledge gap could push voters toward shortcuts — relying on endorsements, like Sanders backing Kim or the state party backing Allen, to make up their minds. Liao said the race may ultimately come down to which candidate does a better job persuading undecided voters directly.
“We’re at a moment where voters — certainly the Democratic Party’s base — are fed up with party leadership,” Liao said.
Still, progressive candidates haven’t always found success this cycle. In California’s gubernatorial primary, progressive contender Tom Steyer failed to advance to the general election. And in Wisconsin, moderate Democrat David Crowley recently defeated democratic socialist Francesca Hong in that state’s gubernatorial primary by less than a single percentage point.
Original source: CalMatters
