California voters headed to the polls Tuesday to decide which two candidates will advance to the November election in one of the state’s most unsettled gubernatorial primaries in years, closing a long and unpredictable campaign to replace Gov. Gavin Newsom.
The race comes at a consequential moment for California and for Southern California voters facing many of the state’s most urgent pressures: a steep cost of living, the nation’s highest gasoline prices, worsening wildfire risk that has shaken the insurance market, a fragile state budget, looming federal cuts to health care programs and economic uncertainty tied in part to immigration enforcement.
Democrat Xavier Becerra, the former state attorney general and U.S. health secretary, entered Election Day as a leading contender. He has campaigned on his record of taking on the Trump administration and has pledged to freeze insurance and utility rates. With support from much of the state Democratic establishment, Becerra appeared well positioned in public polling to claim one of the top two spots.
Republican Steve Hilton, a former Fox News host endorsed by President Donald Trump, also remained in strong position. Hilton has promised to reduce income taxes and roll back major environmental regulations, and his endorsement from Trump helped him consolidate support among many California conservatives.
But billionaire climate activist Tom Steyer, a progressive Democrat who poured $213 million of his own money into the race, was still battling for a November berth. Polls released in the final days showed Becerra leading with about one-quarter of likely voters, while Hilton and Steyer were locked in a close contest for second place.
Final results may not be known quickly. California’s vote count often takes days or even weeks, particularly in close statewide contests. Political strategists said the uncertainty within the Democratic field may have prompted some voters to wait until late in the campaign to back the candidate they believed had the best chance to advance.
“Those polls could become a self-fulfilling prophecy,” said Paul Mitchell, a Democratic strategist whose firm tracks ballot return data.
The contest to succeed Newsom, who is leaving office at the end of the year because of term limits, is the highest-profile race on Tuesday’s ballot. Democrats are widely favored in November because they hold nearly twice as many registered voters as Republicans statewide. The race also carries national significance as California remains central to Democratic opposition to the Trump administration.
The primary has been unusually wide open by California standards. Unlike past statewide races shaped by movie stars, political dynasties or dominant personalities, many of the best-known Democrats in the state chose not to run.
That created a crowded field on the left and briefly raised fears among Democrats that Hilton and another Republican, Riverside County Sheriff Chad Bianco, could outpace a divided Democratic field and shut the party out of the general election. The state Democratic Party publicly urged lower-polling candidates to drop out, but nearly all stayed in the race.
Becerra benefited after then-Rep. Eric Swalwell withdrew following multiple allegations of sexual assault. Many of Swalwell’s donors and supporters moved to Becerra, who has since gained ground while largely weathering criticism of his record.
Steyer, meanwhile, spent heavily to raise his name recognition through campaign advertising and consolidated support from much of the party’s left flank. Former Rep. Katie Porter, another progressive, fell behind after facing criticism over allegations about her temperament. San Jose Mayor Matt Mahan, a moderate backed by Silicon Valley billionaires, improved from single digits in polling but did not climb enough to emerge as a front-runner.
Trump’s endorsement helped Hilton separate himself from Bianco, making it less likely that two Republicans would capture the top two spots. If Hilton advances to November, he would still face long odds in a state where Democrats dominate statewide elections.
In the closing weeks, Hilton and Steyer both sought to cast Becerra as a defender of the political status quo while presenting themselves as change agents. Affordability became the central theme of the campaign as candidates debated how to respond to the state’s housing costs, utility bills, insurance instability and broader economic strain.
Hilton has argued that California needs to end what he calls 16 years of “one-party rule” under Democrats. His platform includes cutting state spending and reversing major liberal policies, including greenhouse gas reduction mandates, the progressive tax structure and portions of the social safety net.
“After 16 years where everything has gone in the same direction, a lot of people are unhappy,” Hilton said last week. “For anyone who wants change or balance in our politics, I’m the only option.”
His years as a Fox host gave him an established base before the campaign began. Nancy LeVesque, a retired saleswoman from Roseville, said she already admired Hilton and had no trouble choosing him when she cast her ballot Monday at a Placer County voting center. She said she liked that he would bring an outsider’s approach to the governor’s office and offer a different direction for people who have left California because of its liberal politics.
“We’ve lost so many good people” to other states, she said.
Steyer has framed himself as a populist “class traitor” willing to challenge powerful industries that he says are driving up costs for Californians, including private utilities, real estate interests and health insurers. He has also made a series of progressive promises on climate change, universal health care and raising taxes on the wealthy.
Tina Varnado, an undecided voter from South Sacramento, attended a Steyer rally last week organized by her union, which represents home care workers. Varnado cares full time for her elderly mother and her adult daughter, who recently underwent open-heart surgery. Between her mother’s Social Security benefits and her own pay as her daughter’s health aide, she said, “we have to spend everything we get every month” just to get by.
“Everything he said touched my heart,” Varnado said after hearing Steyer speak. “If we can bring prices down, maybe we can start saving for a house for my future.”
Becerra has leaned heavily on his long experience in government, including his lawsuits against the first Trump administration and his tenure as U.S. secretary of Health and Human Services during the pandemic.
That record helped win over Evan Cragin of the California Young Democrats, which endorsed Becerra weeks before his late surge. Cragin said he wants the next governor to have experience pushing back against what he described as federal “abuses” under the Trump administration.
“Secretary Becerra has done this before,” Cragin said.
Standing with supporters Monday at the offices of Planned Parenthood Affiliates of California, Becerra brushed aside his rivals’ campaign promises and pointed instead to his role in past policy fights, including passage of the Affordable Care Act and defense of the Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals program.
“You can make all those big, exaggerated promises,” Becerra said. “But getting things done isn’t easy.”
Original source: CalMatters
