By Wednesday morning, California’s race for governor appeared to be taking shape as a far more favorable November matchup for Democrat Xavier Becerra than many political observers had anticipated.
Becerra, a former congressman, state attorney general and Biden administration cabinet secretary, was widely expected to advance from Tuesday’s primary under California’s top-two election system. The major uncertainty was who would join him on the general election ballot: billionaire Democrat Tom Steyer or Republican Steve Hilton, a British-born former television commentator.
With ballots still being counted about 12 hours after polls closed, Becerra and Hilton were running close together in the mid-20% range, with Hilton slightly ahead in the latest count. Steyer trailed by roughly seven to eight percentage points. If those numbers hold, Becerra would face Hilton in November rather than Steyer.
That distinction could be critical. California’s voter registration heavily favors Democrats, with the party holding about 45% of registered voters compared with about 25% for Republicans. Hilton’s ties to President Donald Trump, who remains deeply unpopular in California, would likely make the fall campaign a steep climb for the Republican.
A Becerra-Steyer contest would have been a very different race. Steyer poured more than $200 million into his primary campaign, including extensive television and digital advertising that painted Becerra as ineffective or ethically suspect. Had Steyer advanced, he would have been expected to continue spending heavily through November.
Speaking to supporters in Los Angeles late Tuesday, Becerra stopped short of declaring victory but sounded confident as he framed himself as a candidate rooted in labor and public service. If elected, he would become California’s first Latino governor in the modern era, a milestone with particular significance in a state where Latinos are the largest ethnic group.
Becerra’s emergence at the front of the pack was one of the more surprising turns in an unusually fluid gubernatorial campaign. The race began without a clear favorite after several high-profile Democrats opted not to run, including former Vice President Kamala Harris, U.S. Sen. Alex Padilla and Attorney General Rob Bonta. Lt. Gov. Eleni Kounalakis initially entered the governor’s race but later switched to a campaign for state treasurer, where she was leading as votes were counted.
The original field included 61 candidates, though only about 10 were considered serious contenders. As recently as early April, Becerra was polling at just 4% in a state Democratic Party tracking survey. At that point, Rep. Eric Swalwell led Democratic candidates with 12%, just ahead of Steyer.
Days later, Swalwell ended his campaign and resigned from Congress after several women accused him of sexual harassment or assault. Becerra quickly gained ground, tying Steyer at 13% in a mid-April poll and continuing to build support through the final weeks of the primary.
By the last Democratic tracking poll before Election Day, released May 16, Becerra led Steyer 21% to 15%, a margin that closely resembled the early vote count.
Steyer remained mathematically capable of moving into one of the top two spots, but the overnight results offered little indication that he was closing the gap. If the current standings remain largely intact, the November race will likely favor Becerra, who would then face the challenge of governing the nation’s most populous state after eight years under Gov. Gavin Newsom.
Original source: CalMatters
