California’s race for governor remains unsettled heading into the final stretch of primary voting, with late-deciding Democrats helping keep the contest for the November ballot in suspense.
Voters statewide have about one day left to determine which two candidates will advance under California’s top-two primary system. Recent nonpartisan polling has shown Democrat Xavier Becerra leading the field, while Republican Steve Hilton and Democrat Tom Steyer are running close for the second spot.
Although millions of Californians have already returned ballots, turnout remains relatively low, in line with past gubernatorial primaries. As of Sunday, 15.10% of ballots had been submitted statewide, according to Political Data Inc., a voter data firm. That is slightly ahead of the pace in the June 2022 primary, when 14.53% of ballots had been returned three days before Election Day.
The overall numbers, however, mask a partisan shift. Democratic voters are returning ballots more slowly than they did four years ago. About 15% of Democratic ballots have been submitted so far, compared with 17% at the same point in 2022. Republicans, meanwhile, are returning ballots at a faster pace, with 19% submitted compared with 17% four years ago.
Paul Mitchell, vice president of Political Data Inc., said several factors may be contributing to the stronger Republican return rate. Republican voters have a smaller field to choose from, with two major candidates, while Democrats are sorting through six leading contenders. Republicans also have a history of voting early by mail, a habit that appears to be returning after President Donald Trump discouraged mail voting in 2020.
The more significant hesitation, Mitchell said, appears to be among older white Democrats, some of whom may still be undecided or waiting to cast ballots strategically. Under California’s primary system, the two candidates who receive the most votes advance to November regardless of party, making it possible for two candidates from the same party to face each other in the general election.
That has raised concerns among some Democrats that, in a crowded field, their party could risk splitting its vote and affecting who makes the runoff.
“All the stories about two Republicans making the runoff, they might be calculating their vote to make sure that they’re voting in a way that is strategic to make sure that a Democrat gets onto the general election,” Mitchell said.
Kevin Callan, also with Political Data Inc., said Democratic voters may not be firmly attached to one candidate but still understand the importance of the primary outcome.
“Democrat voters know that whichever Democrat candidate makes it into the runoff will be our next governor,” Callan said. “That adds more weight to their decision.”
For voters in Southern California and the Inland Empire, the stakes are the same as the rest of the state: choosing who will compete in November to lead California for the next four years. With many ballots still outstanding, the final results may depend heavily on voters who waited until the last moment to make their choice.
Original source: CalMatters
