A new statewide poll suggests California’s race for governor is beginning to take shape just days before the June 2 primary, with Democrat Xavier Becerra and Republican Steve Hilton holding the strongest positions to advance to the November runoff.
The Public Policy Institute of California survey found Becerra, a former congressman, California attorney general and Biden administration cabinet secretary, leading among likely voters with 23%. Hilton, a former Fox News commentator, follows at 20%.
Under California’s top-two primary system, the two candidates who receive the most votes in June advance to the general election regardless of party. If the poll reflects the final outcome, Becerra and Hilton would face each other in November.
The numbers also point to a difficult fall campaign for any Republican who makes the runoff. PPIC has repeatedly found Democrats with nearly twice the voter support of Republicans statewide, a trend that appears to favor Becerra if he secures a November spot.
The survey marks a dramatic turn in a race that for months lacked a clear front-runner. Becerra had not been a dominant presence early in the campaign, but his standing improved sharply after former U.S. Rep. Eric Swalwell ended his campaign amid sexual misconduct allegations that later led to his resignation from Congress.
Billionaire Democrat Tom Steyer remains in third place in the PPIC poll with 15%, despite spending nearly $200 million on advertising, including sharp attacks aimed at Becerra. Riverside County Sheriff Chad Bianco, a Republican, is at 13%, followed by former Rep. Katie Porter at 12%.
Bianco’s standing is of particular interest in Inland Empire politics. Earlier in the campaign, some Democratic strategists worried that Hilton and Bianco could both finish ahead of the Democratic field, potentially shutting Democrats out of the November contest. Becerra’s rise has largely eased those concerns, though the possibility helped revive debate over California’s primary rules.
Some Democrats are now supporting an effort to repeal the top-two system and return to party primaries. Voters approved the current system in 2010 after then-Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger and Democratic legislative leaders placed the measure on the ballot as part of a budget agreement. Supporters argued it would encourage candidates to appeal to a broader electorate and produce more moderate elected officials.
Party leaders have long been uneasy with the system, but PPIC’s latest findings show voters remain generally supportive. The institute reported that about six in 10 voters are satisfied with the choices in the governor’s race and believe the top-two primary has mostly benefited California since its adoption.
The primary began with an unusually crowded field, with 61 names on the ballot and roughly a dozen candidates considered serious contenders. Several prominent Democrats who might have entered the race — including former Vice President Kamala Harris, U.S. Sen. Alex Padilla, Attorney General Rob Bonta and Lt. Gov. Eleni Kounalakis — did not run. Kounalakis initially filed for governor but later shifted to a campaign for state treasurer.
Swalwell had been viewed as an early leader before suspending his campaign in April after the San Francisco Chronicle reported allegations of sexual assault from women. Additional reports followed, and he later resigned from Congress.
Porter and San Jose Mayor Matt Mahan were also expected to be competitive, but neither has gained enough traction in the latest polling to break into the top tier. Steyer has stayed within striking distance through an aggressive advertising campaign, but the PPIC results suggest his spending has not pushed him into one of the top two spots. His campaign rejected the poll’s findings, describing the survey as an outdated snapshot of the race.
Original source: CalMatters
