California Democrats say they’ll clean up this mess. But in a governor’s race that has all the makings of a debacle, they’re digging themselves deeper.
With a sprawling field threatening to split the vote and hand the governorship to a Republican, a late-hour effort failed to persuade longshot contenders to drop out. A preeminent labor group split its coveted endorsement four ways, elevating no one. And in the most recent upheaval, a televised debate was hastily canceled after an uproar from within the party that leaving out low-polling candidates of color would produce an all-white stage.
Democratic political professionals here largely insist the field will consolidate once campaigns start running more ads and voters tune in, averting a scenario where Democrats are locked out of the general election. But a dearth of star candidates and the vagaries of California’s top-two election system have pushed California Democrats into precarious new terrain.
“We know there’s this risk ahead — a 15 percent chance of calamity. It’s not a 15 percent chance of stubbing your toe, it’s a 15 percent chance of losing the governorship, losing the down-ballot races,” said Paul Mitchell, a leading Democratic data strategist in the state.
Losing the governorship would rank among the biggest upsets in modern political history. For Democrats, who have held a monopoly on statewide office for a generation and outnumber Republicans two to one, it wouldn’t just mean ceding California’s role as a national leader in progressive policymaking. The lack of a top-of-the-ticket standard bearer could also suppress turnout and cost the party House seats, squandering Democrats’ victory last year in a hard-fought gerrymandering campaign.
Planned Parenthood Affiliates of California CEO Jodi Hicks, whose organization campaigned for Proposition 50 and echoed the party chair’s call for people to leave, called that “the worst of all scenarios.”
“What’s at stake is massive,” Hicks said. “We’re not just talking about the governor’s race. We’re talking about what that does for everything we did for Prop 50, what that does for congressional seats and what that means for the rest of the country. The country is depending on California.”
In a typical election, Democrats would be cruising. But this is not a typical year.
After heavyweights like Sen. Alex Padilla and former Vice President Kamala Harris passed on the race to succeed Gavin Newsom, no Democrat has broken away from the scrum. Now, some polls show Republicans are in position to capture the top two spots — including a survey circulated by state party Chair Rusty Hicks, whose plea for lower-tier Democrats to drop out has been met with backlash and accusations of racism.
“It’s completely dysfunctional,” said a former legislative leader granted anonymity to discuss internal dynamics. “It’s the weirdest combination.”
A Democratic lockout is still an unlikely outcome. Elected officials and political consultants pointed out that voters have largely ignored the race so far. With the exception of billionaire Tom Steyer, campaigns have not started spending serious money.
“I vote in every dang election. I haven’t gotten a single piece of mail yet,” said Democratic consultant Steve Maviglio. “When Democrats start paying attention to this race, the numbers will move.”
In recent weeks, much of the political establishment has backed Rep. Eric Swalwell, who has picked up endorsements from Sen. Adam Schiff and two of California’s most prominent labor groups. A pro-Swalwell super PAC has piled up millions of dollars from medical interests and Uber, and a well-funded anti-Steyer effort launched late last month.
But even those brushing off the concerns said the lingering possibility of Democrats committing a generational fumble has infused California’s political circles with an air of anxiety.
“Democrats need to step back and take a deep breath,” said Garry South, a Democratic consultant who has run multiple statewide campaigns. “In the final analysis this thing will sort itself out, but it’s a talking point among Democrats all around the state, no doubt about it.”
South noted that the “three major players who have the ability to step up and make sure we have a Democrat in that runoff” have not yet weighed in: Newsom, Padilla and former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi.
While Newsom has acknowledged the risk of a lockout, he has not endorsed a candidate or tried to force consolidation. Representatives for Padilla and Pelosi declined to comment on their plans.
And for all the angst about party players not intervening more forcefully, it’s unclear anyone in California politics has both the stature and the means to coax or coerce longshot contenders out of the race.
That reflects an age in which institutions have less clout, media is more fragmented, and interest groups or wealthy individuals can propel candidates into contention with a few well-timed checks.
“The idea that there’s one person who can tell people with authority that they must get out of the race — that’s a product of a bygone era,” said Darrell Steinberg, a former state Senate leader who later served as Sacramento’s mayor. “Politics today is much more open. That old stereotype of people behind closed doors making decisions for the broader public — that was an old way of doing things.”
Practical considerations could also force the issue. Candidates who have lagged in fundraising will soon have to face the reality that they do not have the resources to communicate with voters or compete with better-funded campaigns, said Rose Kapolczynski, a political consultant whose clients included former Sen. Barbara Boxer.
“There’s no difference between a candidate dropping out and a candidate having no money to run advertising,” Kapolczynski said. “It’s the same thing.”
But leaving it to self-interested candidates strikes some as too great of a risk. Instead, they say, there needs to be a coordinated effort to forestall a catastrophe.
“It’s a crazy calamity if the iceberg is hit,” Mitchell said. “Denying there’s an iceberg isn’t a strategy.”
